Week 11 Recap

The byes may be over, but this league has a long way to go before we know who's making the playoffs. Levine improbably takes over first place with a dominating performance, while Barnard, Alan and I all suffer injuries that may hurt our once-strong chances. We can finally say with certainty that AGD, Esco and Bruno have been eliminated, but with two short weeks left, no one has actually clinched a playoff spot.

Here's how things would look if the playoff started today:

1. Levine - BYE - Division Champ
2. Zacherman - BYE
3. Alan - Division Champ
4. Gutman
5. BAM
6. Kumpf

Huge wins by Gutman and BAM did wonders for their playoff chances, while the final playoff spot will likely come down to me and Barnard. Similar to how the NFL flexes the most important Week 17 game into primetime, Barnard and I face off next week in what is potentially the first "playoff" game.

Playoff Odds

After Week 11:

No team has started 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2

100% (6/6) of 8-3 teams made the playoffs

88% (7/8 of 7-4 teams made the playoffs

38% (3/8) of 6-5 teams made the playoffs

33% (2/6) of 5-6 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/5) of 4-7 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/7) of 3-8 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/1) of 2-9 teams made the playoffs

No team has started 1-10 or 11-0

After Week 12:

No team has started 12-0, 11-1, or 10-2

100% (4/4) of 9-3 teams made the playoffs

100% (5/5) of 8-4 teams made the playoffs

63% (5/8) of 7-5 teams made the playoffs

38% (3/8) of 6-6 teams made the playoffs

17% (1/6) of 5-7 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/7) of 4-8 teams made the playoffs

0% (0/3) of 3-9 teams made the playoffs

No team has started 2-10, 1-11, or 0-12

Not a lot of certainty here. Levine is as good as in based on his record, but if he loses out and things break the wrong way, he could be NiJoed. The 5-6 crew doesn't have a ton of hope, but a team like Ajay with a newly re-relevant Thomas Rawls could make a late push. My biggest takeaway here is that lineup decisions matter more than ever, especially now that byes are over.

NiJo Rule Watch

Potential Candidates:

• Kumpf - 6th seed, 3rd in points
• Barnard - 7th seed, 6th in points (42 points out of top 3)
• Ajay - 8th seed, 7th in points (46 points out of top 3)

Potential Victims:

• Levine - 1st seed, 11th in points (141 points out of top 3)
• BAM - 5th seed, 5th in points (29 points out of top 3)
• Gutman - 4th seed, 4th in points (18 points out of top 3)

The race for top 3 in scoring has tightened a bit, so whoever lands in the dreaded 6th seed will likely be sweating out the final week.

Playoff Predictions

1. Levine - BYE - Division Champ
2. Alan - BYE - Division Champ
3. Zacherman
4. BAM
5. Gutman
6. Kumpf

Green's injury likely ends things for Barnard, as his chances of winning matchups drops, as does his ability to make up points in the NiJo race. But every team here is flawed, so things will very likely change over the next two weeks.

Team of the Week - Levine

Beating a banged up Barnard team isn't necessarily impressive on its own, but this win means that Levine only has to win one more matchup to clinch the playoffs. His last two are against Ajay and Marco, two disappointing teams that still bring it every week, so that's not a given. But still, a roster as mediocre as this shouldn't be the first team to clinch, yet Levine has made it work with moves like the Mariota trade, picking up Dion Lewis, and managing his lineup effectively. I agree with AGD that it's been a weird year, and that Levine's team is terrible, but he also hasn't been beating himself.

Lineup Decisions

I really wanted to give Best of the Week to BAM for starting CJ over Witten literally just to spite me, but they would have barely won either way. Other than that, there really wasn't much to celebrate or bitch about. Most teams that made poor lineup decisions won in spite of them, and most teams that made good lineup decisions lost anyway. I could give myself Worst of the Week for starting Kelvin Benjamin over Rishard Matthews, but I'm not in the business of being self-critical.

Biggest Surprise of the Week - Zacherman's lack of depth

We all know that Z's team is top-heavy, but this week illustrated just how reliant he is on a few players. Despite a huge game from Brady, a solid game from DeMarco and a TD from Jordy, Z still only managed to put up 76 points. Granted, this was without Gronk, and Make Cameron Brate Again shat the bed, but come playoff time, I don't think there's a single team that I would be comfortable betting on.

Biggest Matchup of Week 12 - BAM vs. Gutman

I know I buried the lede, but... THE KURSE IS OVER! THE MASANDIASSANCE LIVES! Thanks to Alan, I now have a newfound faith in my ability to make predictions. This week that involves a matchup that basically clinches a playoff spot for the winner, and leaves the loser potentially vulnerable to being NiJoed. We should know a lot about how this one will end up by the time we finish our turkey, as Zeke, Witten and Hilton all play on Thanksgiving. Both teams are strong on paper, but my pick is based off the fact that Gutman has several lineup decisions between the Saints RBs, a banged up Diggs, and James Starks, while BAM has no depth, leaving them with no decisions to make outside of their much-ballyhooed TE battle. My complete lack of faith in Gutman's decision-making leaves me picking BAM. #ReverseTheKurse

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.