I don't think we've ever had a week where 12/14 teams were at .500 or better, but thanks to most of the league's general mediocrity, as well as Weissbard and Belfer's abject awfulness, here we are. A lot of this is just early season noise caused by unbalanced schedules, so breaking the league down by actual points scored, as well as a look forward, we're left with the following tiers:
True Contenders: Levine, Esco, Zacherman, Bennett
Need Some Help: Barnard, Gutman, Marco, Kumpf, Alan
No Idea: Ajay, BAM
There's Always Next Year: Weissbard, Reap, Belfer
Ajay and BAM are an interesting juxtaposition, because their teams are essentially opposites. I can in no way write them off, but when things go wrong, they go really wrong. But the most interesting tier is the one that needs help. Barnard and Gutman need RBs desperately, Marco and I could use some general talent upgrades, while Alan just needs his improbable RB rotation to keep producing. It's likely that two of these teams will join the top tier in the playoffs, but we're a long way from having any clarity there.
Also, Alan still hasn't named his division.
Playoff Odds
After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) 0-4 teams made the playoffs
After Week 5:
100% (2/2) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
80% (8/10) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
53% (8/15) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
28% (5/18) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
19% (1/9) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs
For the first time, we have an official elimination record this week, so if Weissbard or Belfer loses, they will face an uncharted road to the playoffs. It's also a week of decent delineation between 2 and 3 win teams, which is particularly important for our 8 2-2 teams, however we only have two matchups between them.
Trade Recap
Gutman receives Elijah McGuire
Marco receives Adam Thielen
Oh Gutman No. Marco took $27 waiver dollars, lit them on fire by spending them on the 3rd string RB for the Jets, then somehow took the ashes and flipped them for a startable WR. This is such a raping by Marco, and such an insane misread on the market by Gutman, that I'm tempted to adjust their tiers above. Good God Gutman.
Marco Grade: A+
Gutman Grade: F
Esco receives Charles Clay and Broncos D/ST
Marco receives James White and Jason Witten
Interesting trade here, I can't remember seeing a defense traded before, but Marco has now completely revamped his team after his blacked out draft strategy led to a very unbalanced team. On the heels of the trade above, Marco makes a nice upgrade at RB here, while making small downgrades at TE and D/ST. As for Esco, getting Denver's D takes him out of the streaming life, saving his waiver money for bigger fish. And while I'm not sold as Clay as a no-doubt starter at TE (he's absolutely getting hurt in the next two weeks), he's still an upgrade from Witten. I'm giving Esco the slight edge here based on this trade alone, but Marco's team is unquestionably stronger than it was last week.
Esco Grade: B+
Marco Grade: B-
Team of the Week - Zacherman
This was just total domination. It barely edges Levine for highest score on the season, but it also was the most complete performance by a team this year. The only thing more surprising than Sterling Shepard being Z's lowest scorer with 7.9 points is the fact that he could have added another 8.7 points if he started Eli.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ameer Abdullah over Crowell or Martavis
I fucking hate picking my starting lineup each week, but I finally got one right. No other great calls this week.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Belfer :(
In a must-win matchup, if Belfer started either Cooper Kupp or Mike Wallace over Jamison Crowder, he would have easily beaten Alan (who benched Bilal Powell). Instead he was rewarded with negative points from Crowder and is still winless on the year. Honorable mention to Marco picking wrong in his Alex Smith vs. Philip Rivers QB controversy.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Ajay
It doesn't seem like anyone will challenge Billy's Week 1 futility, but Ajay put up a shockingly terrible performance this week. One of my preseason Stevens Bowl picks because of his depth, this is what happens when a deep team takes a collective dump. On the bright side, at least you didn't make any terrible lineup decisions?
Biggest Matchup of Week 5 - Bennett vs. Levine
It's baaaaack! After a brief success to start the year, the #Kurse is back with a vengeance. There were no great 2-2 matchups this week, so I'm picking a matchup between contenders who have had very different luck this year. After Levine made the playoffs with a bottom-three scoring team last year, his luck has completely regressed this year. Not only is he an unlucky 2-2, but he lost Dalvin Cook to a brutal ACL injury last week. I wasn't surprised in the least to see that he already had Latavius locked up, so I don't see a huge drop off moving forward, even with Ingram and CJ on byes. Bennett losing Sanders and Fat Rob to byes should hurt a lot more, so I'm gonna pick my apparent rival to start turning his luck around this week. Levine, you've been #Kursed.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-3
Gambling Corner
Before getting to this week's picks, I want to add a small disclaimer. While I'm not saying you should be using my weekly bets as actual betting advice, I do have some advice you should take: NBA and MLB win totals. With baseball season just ending, I hit on 18 of the 26 win total over/under bets I made, and over the last three years I've hit on 68%. I'll publish those next year if anyone is interested in free money.
Speaking of free money, I'll also list my NBA win total bets next week, where I'm over 75% in the last three years. As for NFL win totals, my Rams over 5.5 and Giants under 9 bets look good, but I also have the Chargers over 7.5 and Lions under 8. Historically, I'm right at 50% in the NFL, which loses money after the vig.
NFL Week 5 Bets
Eagles (-6) vs. Cardinals
Bills (+3) at Bengals
Jets (Pick) at Browns
Packers (+2) at Cowboys
Chiefs (-1) at Texans
Last Week: 2-3
2017 Record: 10-8
NCAA Week 6 Bets
Duke (+3) at Virginia
Florida State (+4) at Miami
LSU (+4) at Florida
Texas A&M (+27) vs. Alabama
Arizona (+7) at Colorado
Last Week: 0-4
2017 Record: 8-9
Wednesday, October 4, 2017
Thursday, September 28, 2017
Week 3 Recap
Last week was a Murphy's Law weekend for me. Lost this league matchup without breaking 30 until SNF, lost my other three leagues (including one by 0.18), had my first rough betting week, and Miami lost to the fucking Jets. It can only get better from here, at least that's what I'm telling myself. Belfer and Weissbard also had rough weekends, falling to 0-3. This type of performance is somewhat familiar for Weissbard, as he has the second lowest PAA among active FALAFEL teams, and he ran into Gutman's buzzsaw, but this is entirely new territory for Belfer. After enjoying a top-4 PAA while teamed with Reap, he's reeling after falling to a Marco team that couldn't even crack 75.
Kudos to Zacherman, who not only named his division in the last week, but also picked the best (worst) division so far. He does have three teams above .500, but the average points scored in his division is 253.56, coming in behind BAM (264.3) and Alan (280.36). Alan is obviously the worst here, and he also hasn't named his division yet.
Finally, there's nothing quite like watching Gutman sweat things out as an undefeated team. He's fully aware that his team is a house of cards, and is hoping that no one else realizes it, giving him the ability to swing a trade. Unfortunately for him, he's terrified to trade Rodgers, and knows that no one is paying full price for his Viking receivers. He thought that no one would bid on Wendell Smallwood, because he's Philly's RB3, giving Gutman some "inside" information (full disclosure: Barnard had no idea who Wendell Smallwood was until I asked why he didn't bid on him). Right before waivers processed, Esco sent an inflammatory message in GroupMe, causing Gut to increase his bid from ~$40 to $83, using over 40% of his budget on a player who's not starting on his own team. Like I said, a successful and paranoid Gutman is the best Gutman, though honorable mention goes to Fat Gutman and Food Stamps Gutman (RIP).
Playoff Odds
After Week 3:
100% (3/3) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs
After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) 0-4 teams made the playoffs
This is always the weird week for playoff odds thanks to Gutman's miracle playoff run from 0-4 a few years back, as well as the fact that no 3-0 team has ever lost the next week. But it's also a big week for delineation, because the difference between 2-2 and 1-3 is pretty large. We currently have five teams at 1-2, so history says the season could already be on the line. None of these five play each other, so we should know a lot more about those teams next week.
Trade Recap
Belfer receives Adrian Peterson
Weissbard receives D'Onta Foreman
LOL. This is obviously a desperation trade between winless teams, but I actually think this was a raping by Weissbard. Peterson has been barely involved on the Saints so far, and it would likely take injuries to both Ingram and Kamara for me to feel comfortable starting him. On the other side, Foreman is already splitting time with Lamar Miller, and could be flex-worthy by later in the season even without injury to Miller.
Belfer Grade: D-
Weissbard Grade: B+
Team of the Week - Alan
Our defending champ gets in the winning column in impressive fashion, taking down undefeated Levine and putting up the weekly high score. He did this all with two arms tied behind his back, as his TE and D/ST combined for 0.6 points. After a rough start to the season, it's encouraging to see guys like Palmer, Cooks, and Baldwin put up big numbers. As mentioned though, this week is also borderline must-win against a truly desperate Belfer team.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Alan starting Tarik Cohen over Chris Johnson
No one made an amazing decision, but I could see Alan trying to justify his absurd spending on CJ by starting him over Cohen (an extremely savvy pickup post-draft by our defending champ). But he stuck with logic it gave him the win.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Donte Moncrief over Sammy Watkins
There were a lot of terrible lineup decisions this week (Esco, Belfer, Levine and I also cost ourselves wins), but most of them are justifiable. I honestly have no idea what Barnard was thinking here. I would argue that Donte Moncrief is more deserving of being on waivers than he is of being in anyone's starting lineup. Sammy isn't a no-doubt start, but this was terrible.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - BAM!
In my draft recap, I gave this team an F and said "This team could win any given week if the top 4 all explode. But if they even have average weeks, it's likely a loss." Well, this is what is looks like when they explode. BAM's top four would have outscored 5 other teams on their own this week. It's not likely to happen every week, but given this type of potential, along with a solid waiver pickup in Buck Allen, and I'm not completely writing this duo off yet.
Biggest Matchup of Week 4 - Gutman vs. Esco
No obvious choices here this week, so I'll go with the showdown between two of the three highest scoring teams, along with my last two (losing) Matchup of the Week picks. The QB matchup leans heavily towards Gutman, who should get out to a nice early lead thanks to Rodgers. I like the overall depth of Esco's team better, but Gut has slightly better matchups this week. Going into MNF, Tyreek Hill should be a big-game away from taking the lead, but standing in his way is...Chris Thompson? The surprising RB3 on the year will have the chance to ice Gutman's lead, and given the way this year has gone so far, I'm not betting against him. The #Kurse isn't officially back yet, but if Gut loses, I'm ready to bust it out next week.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-2
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 4 Bets
Packers (-7) vs. Bears
Patriots (-9) vs. Panthers
Titans (-1) at Texans
Eagles (Pick) at Chargers
Raiders (+3) at Broncos
Last Week: 2-4
2017 Record: 8-5
NCAA Week 5 Bets
Duke (+7) vs. Miami
Wisconsin (-14) vs. Northwestern
Iowa (+4) at Michigan State
Virginia Tech (+8) vs. Clemson
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 8-5
Kudos to Zacherman, who not only named his division in the last week, but also picked the best (worst) division so far. He does have three teams above .500, but the average points scored in his division is 253.56, coming in behind BAM (264.3) and Alan (280.36). Alan is obviously the worst here, and he also hasn't named his division yet.
Finally, there's nothing quite like watching Gutman sweat things out as an undefeated team. He's fully aware that his team is a house of cards, and is hoping that no one else realizes it, giving him the ability to swing a trade. Unfortunately for him, he's terrified to trade Rodgers, and knows that no one is paying full price for his Viking receivers. He thought that no one would bid on Wendell Smallwood, because he's Philly's RB3, giving Gutman some "inside" information (full disclosure: Barnard had no idea who Wendell Smallwood was until I asked why he didn't bid on him). Right before waivers processed, Esco sent an inflammatory message in GroupMe, causing Gut to increase his bid from ~$40 to $83, using over 40% of his budget on a player who's not starting on his own team. Like I said, a successful and paranoid Gutman is the best Gutman, though honorable mention goes to Fat Gutman and Food Stamps Gutman (RIP).
Playoff Odds
After Week 3:
100% (3/3) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs
After Week 4:
100% (3/3) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
62% (8/13) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
9% (1/11) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) 0-4 teams made the playoffs
This is always the weird week for playoff odds thanks to Gutman's miracle playoff run from 0-4 a few years back, as well as the fact that no 3-0 team has ever lost the next week. But it's also a big week for delineation, because the difference between 2-2 and 1-3 is pretty large. We currently have five teams at 1-2, so history says the season could already be on the line. None of these five play each other, so we should know a lot more about those teams next week.
Trade Recap
Belfer receives Adrian Peterson
Weissbard receives D'Onta Foreman
LOL. This is obviously a desperation trade between winless teams, but I actually think this was a raping by Weissbard. Peterson has been barely involved on the Saints so far, and it would likely take injuries to both Ingram and Kamara for me to feel comfortable starting him. On the other side, Foreman is already splitting time with Lamar Miller, and could be flex-worthy by later in the season even without injury to Miller.
Belfer Grade: D-
Weissbard Grade: B+
Team of the Week - Alan
Our defending champ gets in the winning column in impressive fashion, taking down undefeated Levine and putting up the weekly high score. He did this all with two arms tied behind his back, as his TE and D/ST combined for 0.6 points. After a rough start to the season, it's encouraging to see guys like Palmer, Cooks, and Baldwin put up big numbers. As mentioned though, this week is also borderline must-win against a truly desperate Belfer team.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Alan starting Tarik Cohen over Chris Johnson
No one made an amazing decision, but I could see Alan trying to justify his absurd spending on CJ by starting him over Cohen (an extremely savvy pickup post-draft by our defending champ). But he stuck with logic it gave him the win.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Donte Moncrief over Sammy Watkins
There were a lot of terrible lineup decisions this week (Esco, Belfer, Levine and I also cost ourselves wins), but most of them are justifiable. I honestly have no idea what Barnard was thinking here. I would argue that Donte Moncrief is more deserving of being on waivers than he is of being in anyone's starting lineup. Sammy isn't a no-doubt start, but this was terrible.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - BAM!
In my draft recap, I gave this team an F and said "This team could win any given week if the top 4 all explode. But if they even have average weeks, it's likely a loss." Well, this is what is looks like when they explode. BAM's top four would have outscored 5 other teams on their own this week. It's not likely to happen every week, but given this type of potential, along with a solid waiver pickup in Buck Allen, and I'm not completely writing this duo off yet.
Biggest Matchup of Week 4 - Gutman vs. Esco
No obvious choices here this week, so I'll go with the showdown between two of the three highest scoring teams, along with my last two (losing) Matchup of the Week picks. The QB matchup leans heavily towards Gutman, who should get out to a nice early lead thanks to Rodgers. I like the overall depth of Esco's team better, but Gut has slightly better matchups this week. Going into MNF, Tyreek Hill should be a big-game away from taking the lead, but standing in his way is...Chris Thompson? The surprising RB3 on the year will have the chance to ice Gutman's lead, and given the way this year has gone so far, I'm not betting against him. The #Kurse isn't officially back yet, but if Gut loses, I'm ready to bust it out next week.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-2
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 4 Bets
Packers (-7) vs. Bears
Patriots (-9) vs. Panthers
Titans (-1) at Texans
Eagles (Pick) at Chargers
Raiders (+3) at Broncos
Last Week: 2-4
2017 Record: 8-5
NCAA Week 5 Bets
Duke (+7) vs. Miami
Wisconsin (-14) vs. Northwestern
Iowa (+4) at Michigan State
Virginia Tech (+8) vs. Clemson
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 8-5
Wednesday, September 20, 2017
Week 2 Recap
It always feels good to get your first win of the year. I felt like it had been awhile since I started 1-0 in this league, and even though we don't have the 2012 league page, I discovered that I haven't led off with a win since 2011! For reference, that year Kimmel was in the league, Gutman's team name referenced Curb Your Enthusiasm (which is luckily relevant again), and Nick's team name referenced Jerry Sandusky (which is unluckily relevant again). Regardless, I'm on the board after two weeks, something that can't be said for Weissbard, Alan, BAM, and Belfer. Better luck this week guys.
Also, Alan and Z still need to name their divisions.
Playoff Odds
After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs
After Week 3:
100% (3/3) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs
Still no real delineation here other than at the extremes. It's crazy that we've only had three teams start 3-0 in the last four years, but we're guaranteed at least one more with our Matchup of the Week, and with Gutman/Esco taking on winless teams, we could have as many as three this year alone. There's not a huge difference between 2-1 and 1-2, but our four 0-2 teams desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Team of the Week - Gutman
Levine put up an impressive point total, but he nearly doubled up Belfer, so I'm giving this to Gutman for winning the Matchup of the Week after losing David Johnson. The week could have been even bigger if he didn't start Kerwynn Williams, but he improbably has a decent RB combo with both Washington guys now that Fat Rob broke a rib. I don't know if relying on the Redskins ground game, Vikings passing attack, and a Jet is sustainable, but these wins are banked.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman starting Jermaine Kearse over Adam Thielen
No really close games this week, so unfortunately we have more Gutman love.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman starting Alvin Kamara and Sterling Shephard over Matt Forte and Allen Hurns
Again, no close games. Though that Hurns pickup looks pretty nice right now even if Z hasn't benefitted yet.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Where are the studs?
Alex Smith is QB1, Aaron Rodgers is QB8. Kareem Hunt is RB1, LeVeon Bell is RB25. Michael Crabtree and J.J. Nelson are WR1 and WR2, Antonio Brown is WR3, but Julio is WR18 and ODB has alternated between injured and ineffective. I have done absolutely no research on this, but I'm pretty sure that a team composed entirely of $1 players could outscore the most expensive players at each position. I have no clue which of these performances will last (likely none of them, though Hunt looks legit and the Giants look reeeeally bad), but whoever guesses right and makes a good trade will probably make a deep playoff run.
Biggest Matchup of Week 3 - Esco vs. Bennett
Looking at his roster, I have no idea how Bennett's team is 2-0. Looking at his schedule, it makes a lot more sense. This should be his first real matchup of the season, and he takes on an Esco team that is tied (to the tenth of a point!) with Levine for the most points scored and is impossibly deep. Both teams have QBs that play on SNF or MNF, but despite Bennett getting last licks, I think Esco's team has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling. I'll put Esco at 3-0.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-1
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 3 Bets
Ravens (-4) at Jaguars (London)
Lions (+3) vs. Falcons
Colts (Pick) vs. Browns
Bills (+3) vs. Broncos
Patriots (-13) vs. Texans
Seahawks (+3) at Titans
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 6-1
NCAA Week 4 Bets
California (+16) vs. USC
Michigan (-10) at Purdue
Mississippi State (+5) at Georgia
Georgia Tech (-7) vs. Pittsburgh
Last Week: 1-2
2017 Record: 5-5
Shout out to Barnard who missed a 7-way parlay and a $750 payout thanks to Gostkowski missing an extra points. Ball Don't Lie.
Also, Alan and Z still need to name their divisions.
Playoff Odds
After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs
After Week 3:
100% (3/3) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
44% (11/25) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
37% (7/19) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
14% (1/7) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs
Still no real delineation here other than at the extremes. It's crazy that we've only had three teams start 3-0 in the last four years, but we're guaranteed at least one more with our Matchup of the Week, and with Gutman/Esco taking on winless teams, we could have as many as three this year alone. There's not a huge difference between 2-1 and 1-2, but our four 0-2 teams desperately need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Team of the Week - Gutman
Levine put up an impressive point total, but he nearly doubled up Belfer, so I'm giving this to Gutman for winning the Matchup of the Week after losing David Johnson. The week could have been even bigger if he didn't start Kerwynn Williams, but he improbably has a decent RB combo with both Washington guys now that Fat Rob broke a rib. I don't know if relying on the Redskins ground game, Vikings passing attack, and a Jet is sustainable, but these wins are banked.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Gutman starting Jermaine Kearse over Adam Thielen
No really close games this week, so unfortunately we have more Gutman love.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman starting Alvin Kamara and Sterling Shephard over Matt Forte and Allen Hurns
Again, no close games. Though that Hurns pickup looks pretty nice right now even if Z hasn't benefitted yet.
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Where are the studs?
Alex Smith is QB1, Aaron Rodgers is QB8. Kareem Hunt is RB1, LeVeon Bell is RB25. Michael Crabtree and J.J. Nelson are WR1 and WR2, Antonio Brown is WR3, but Julio is WR18 and ODB has alternated between injured and ineffective. I have done absolutely no research on this, but I'm pretty sure that a team composed entirely of $1 players could outscore the most expensive players at each position. I have no clue which of these performances will last (likely none of them, though Hunt looks legit and the Giants look reeeeally bad), but whoever guesses right and makes a good trade will probably make a deep playoff run.
Biggest Matchup of Week 3 - Esco vs. Bennett
Looking at his roster, I have no idea how Bennett's team is 2-0. Looking at his schedule, it makes a lot more sense. This should be his first real matchup of the season, and he takes on an Esco team that is tied (to the tenth of a point!) with Levine for the most points scored and is impossibly deep. Both teams have QBs that play on SNF or MNF, but despite Bennett getting last licks, I think Esco's team has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling. I'll put Esco at 3-0.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-1
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 3 Bets
Ravens (-4) at Jaguars (London)
Lions (+3) vs. Falcons
Colts (Pick) vs. Browns
Bills (+3) vs. Broncos
Patriots (-13) vs. Texans
Seahawks (+3) at Titans
Last Week: 3-1
2017 Record: 6-1
NCAA Week 4 Bets
California (+16) vs. USC
Michigan (-10) at Purdue
Mississippi State (+5) at Georgia
Georgia Tech (-7) vs. Pittsburgh
Last Week: 1-2
2017 Record: 5-5
Shout out to Barnard who missed a 7-way parlay and a $750 payout thanks to Gostkowski missing an extra points. Ball Don't Lie.
Friday, September 15, 2017
Week 1 Recap
Week 1 is always weird, for obvious reasons, but this feels like the weirdest Week 1 in fantasy history. The top two picks by a long shot were DJ and LeVeon, and not only did they wildly disappoint, but DJ is now gone for at least 2 months, and more likely the season considering the Cardinals won't have much to play for in December. The rest of the top guys didn't really show up either, other than Antonio Brown, and of the top eleven Week 1 scorers, 4 of them are defenses. I think a lot of this boils down to terrible O-Line play, as that doomed the offenses in Cincy, Houston, Seattle, and Washington among others. Lines tend to play better over the course of the season, so things aren't settled yet, but I feel like this season will be determined by which O-Line can keep its shit together and stay healthy.
Special shout out to BAM for failing to break 30 even after we added half-PPR and slightly bumped DST scoring. To make things even more impressive, even if you played your optimal lineup, you would have only added 1.3 points to your total. Absolutely amazing. I can't wait for Marshall to make his grand reappearance in this year's Christmas card.
Finally, holy hell those waiver bids. I understand BAM's desperation in the case of Buck Allen, but Mike Tolbert? That would be like dropping $61 on Chris Johns-- Alan what the fuck? Absolutely insane. I'm in a 16-team dynasty league with 45-man rosters and no one picked up CJ, so he might be worth $10 here. Given the half-PPR scoring system, the Hurns and Ellington bids were reasonable and are much more likely to pay off than those other monster bids. This was a fitting end to an absurd Week 1.
Playoff Odds
Things are slightly different this year with the modified NiJo Rule and increased focus on divisions, but historical records should still be applicable most of the time.
After Week 1:
50% (14/28) of 1-0 teams made the playoffs
39% (11/28) of 0-1 teams made the playoffs
After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs
The old Irish saying goes "You can't make the playoffs in the first two weeks, but you can certainly fucking miss them."
Team of the Week - Esco
Esco wins this week not just because he scored the most total points, but also because he did it while going up against one of the two 29-point DSTs, as well as a tight end who basically got his entire scoring line from one enormous play. Those are easy weeks to lose (or to win, in Weissbard's case), but Esco pulled it out with an extremely balanced and successful roster that has at least three bench players that could start for half the league. Now comes the tough part: Is it better to trade depth for a starter upgrade, or do you hold onto it to battle the inevitable injuries that are likely to strike?
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman's WR2 and Flex decisions
There wasn't one obvious great call by anyone this week, but Z starting Shephard and Sproles over the combination of Prosise, Jamaal Charles, Chris Hogan and Robby Anderson did prove to be the difference in his Matchup of the Week against Ajay.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ameer Abdullah and Martavis Bryant over Mike Gillislee
On the flip side, lots of us made choices that lost matchups. In addition to my opening night fiasco, I could have won if I started Bradford over Cam, but I'm giving myself the award because I spotted Levine 43.1 points and still should have won the week. Honorable mention goes to Ajay picking the wrong Panthers RB and Barnard getting cheated by Tom Brady. Fantasy is back!
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Belfer and Reap's collective no-show
It appears that the whole really was greater than the sum of its parts. Reap got the win because BAM is just hilarious, but the former duo combined to put up just 11 points more than Esco. I don't know if this will continue, but I'm all for the narrative that these two literally need each other to survive.
Biggest Matchup of Week 2 - Gutman vs. Marco
This was easy, as it's the only matchup between 1-0 teams. It's also Gutman's first week without David Johnson, so we get to find out if a team intentionally starting Chris Thompson and Kerwynn Williams can get off to a 2-0 record. Spoiler Alert: Not a chance. Even with Rodgers closing things out, I think Marco's squad is up 20+ heading into SNF and pulls out a win.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-0
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 2 Bets
Jaguars (+3) vs. Titans
Colts (+8) vs. Cardinals
Ravens (-9) vs. Browns
Raiders (-14) vs. Jets
Last Week: 3-0
2017 Record: 3-0
NCAA Week 3 Bets
Illinois (+17) at South Florida
Pittsburgh (+14) vs. Oklahoma State
Notre Dame (-14) at Boston College
Last Week: 1-2
2017 Record: 4-2
Special shout out to BAM for failing to break 30 even after we added half-PPR and slightly bumped DST scoring. To make things even more impressive, even if you played your optimal lineup, you would have only added 1.3 points to your total. Absolutely amazing. I can't wait for Marshall to make his grand reappearance in this year's Christmas card.
Finally, holy hell those waiver bids. I understand BAM's desperation in the case of Buck Allen, but Mike Tolbert? That would be like dropping $61 on Chris Johns-- Alan what the fuck? Absolutely insane. I'm in a 16-team dynasty league with 45-man rosters and no one picked up CJ, so he might be worth $10 here. Given the half-PPR scoring system, the Hurns and Ellington bids were reasonable and are much more likely to pay off than those other monster bids. This was a fitting end to an absurd Week 1.
Playoff Odds
Things are slightly different this year with the modified NiJo Rule and increased focus on divisions, but historical records should still be applicable most of the time.
After Week 1:
50% (14/28) of 1-0 teams made the playoffs
39% (11/28) of 0-1 teams made the playoffs
After Week 2:
54% (7/13) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
50% (15/30) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
15% (2/13) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs
The old Irish saying goes "You can't make the playoffs in the first two weeks, but you can certainly fucking miss them."
Team of the Week - Esco
Esco wins this week not just because he scored the most total points, but also because he did it while going up against one of the two 29-point DSTs, as well as a tight end who basically got his entire scoring line from one enormous play. Those are easy weeks to lose (or to win, in Weissbard's case), but Esco pulled it out with an extremely balanced and successful roster that has at least three bench players that could start for half the league. Now comes the tough part: Is it better to trade depth for a starter upgrade, or do you hold onto it to battle the inevitable injuries that are likely to strike?
Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Zacherman's WR2 and Flex decisions
There wasn't one obvious great call by anyone this week, but Z starting Shephard and Sproles over the combination of Prosise, Jamaal Charles, Chris Hogan and Robby Anderson did prove to be the difference in his Matchup of the Week against Ajay.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Kumpf starting Ameer Abdullah and Martavis Bryant over Mike Gillislee
On the flip side, lots of us made choices that lost matchups. In addition to my opening night fiasco, I could have won if I started Bradford over Cam, but I'm giving myself the award because I spotted Levine 43.1 points and still should have won the week. Honorable mention goes to Ajay picking the wrong Panthers RB and Barnard getting cheated by Tom Brady. Fantasy is back!
Biggest Surprise of the Week - Belfer and Reap's collective no-show
It appears that the whole really was greater than the sum of its parts. Reap got the win because BAM is just hilarious, but the former duo combined to put up just 11 points more than Esco. I don't know if this will continue, but I'm all for the narrative that these two literally need each other to survive.
Biggest Matchup of Week 2 - Gutman vs. Marco
This was easy, as it's the only matchup between 1-0 teams. It's also Gutman's first week without David Johnson, so we get to find out if a team intentionally starting Chris Thompson and Kerwynn Williams can get off to a 2-0 record. Spoiler Alert: Not a chance. Even with Rodgers closing things out, I think Marco's squad is up 20+ heading into SNF and pulls out a win.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 1-0
Gambling Corner
NFL Week 2 Bets
Jaguars (+3) vs. Titans
Colts (+8) vs. Cardinals
Ravens (-9) vs. Browns
Raiders (-14) vs. Jets
Last Week: 3-0
2017 Record: 3-0
NCAA Week 3 Bets
Illinois (+17) at South Florida
Pittsburgh (+14) vs. Oklahoma State
Notre Dame (-14) at Boston College
Last Week: 1-2
2017 Record: 4-2
Friday, September 8, 2017
Week 1 Preview
I meant to get this out yesterday, but it feels a lot better now that the Patriots are alone with the worst record in the NFL. What doesn't feel so good is looking at my matchup and realizing that Steve Levine hates me. Off the fantasy field, Levine voted against every single one of my proposed rule changes during the offseason, without sending a single email backing up his opinion. I can only assume this would be his reaction when asked why he voted the way he did:
On top of that, my last two fantasy matchups have been against him. Last year in the playoffs, LeVeon Bell put up 47.8 points, the highest individual score of the season, to knock me out of my first playoffs in five years. This year in the first game of the season, Kareem Hunt puts up 43.1 points, which could also be the highest individual score of the season. It ain't over yet, but it certainly doesn't look good.
Which brings up two questions. 1) Levine, why do you hate me? We're the only two Dolphins fans in FALAFEL so we should be sticking together. And 2) After Hunt's 5-reception game, how do you like that half-PPR now?
Trade Recap
Marco Receives Tevin Coleman, Jarvis Landry, Cole Beasley
Weissbard Receives Dez Bryant, Josh Doctson
This was one of the more obvious trades even before the Miami game got postponed. Marco was way too top-heavy at WR at the expense of literally everything else, while Weiss had RB depth but seemingly forgot about the WR position. I'm on record as a huge Tevin Coleman fan, but with Shanahan gone and Freeman healthy, his ceiling is limited. Still an upgrade for Marco, but I have to give Weissbard the edge here.
Marco Grade: B+
Weissbard Grade: A
Biggest Matchup of Week 1 - Zacherman vs. Ajay
It's hard to predict much about the relative importance of a fantasy matchup heading into Week 1, but this year there is a slightly added importance on the divisions than there was in the past. Ajay vs. Z is one of three intra-division matchups this week, and with Zeke's one week stay of execution, it has added importance because it's one of 6 weeks that Z will get to use his prize RB. We all assumed Z would get out to a good start last night when it looked like Gronk pulled in a nice TD, but the call was reversed, and he was mostly held in check the rest of the game. This looks a lot like a toss up, and could easily come down to Brees vs. Demaryius on MNF. I like Zacherman's matchups a little bit better, so I'm picking Brees to slightly hold off DT for the win.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-0
Gambling Corner
Because I don't have a ton to write about this week, and because I just put down a lot of money on a Latvian betting website, I thought I would list my bets for this week/season to hopefully inspire more degenerates in this league than there already are. I'll keep doing this if people find it interesting, and if y'all don't then refer to the image above.
2017 NFL Season Bets
Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl (28:1)
Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl (10:1)
Cam Newton MVP (25:1)
Isaiah Crowell Leads NFL in Rushing (50:1)
Arizona Cardinals over 8.5 wins
Chicago Bears over 5.5 wins
Cincinnati Bengals under 8.5 wins
Denver Broncos under 8.5 wins
Detroit Lions under 8 wins
Houston Texans under 8.5 wins
Los Angeles Chargers over 7.5 wins
Los Angeles Rams over 5.5 wins
New York Giants under 9 wins
Oakland Raiders under 10 wins
Tampa Bay Bucs under 8.5 wins
2017 NFL Week 1 Bets
Chicago Bears (+7) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Detroit Lions (+2) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Oakland Raiders (+2) at Tennessee Titans
2017 NCAA Week 2 Bets
North Carolina (+10) vs. Louisville
South Carolina (+3) at Missouri
Stanford (+6) at USC
Record: 3-0
On top of that, my last two fantasy matchups have been against him. Last year in the playoffs, LeVeon Bell put up 47.8 points, the highest individual score of the season, to knock me out of my first playoffs in five years. This year in the first game of the season, Kareem Hunt puts up 43.1 points, which could also be the highest individual score of the season. It ain't over yet, but it certainly doesn't look good.
Which brings up two questions. 1) Levine, why do you hate me? We're the only two Dolphins fans in FALAFEL so we should be sticking together. And 2) After Hunt's 5-reception game, how do you like that half-PPR now?
Trade Recap
Marco Receives Tevin Coleman, Jarvis Landry, Cole Beasley
Weissbard Receives Dez Bryant, Josh Doctson
This was one of the more obvious trades even before the Miami game got postponed. Marco was way too top-heavy at WR at the expense of literally everything else, while Weiss had RB depth but seemingly forgot about the WR position. I'm on record as a huge Tevin Coleman fan, but with Shanahan gone and Freeman healthy, his ceiling is limited. Still an upgrade for Marco, but I have to give Weissbard the edge here.
Marco Grade: B+
Weissbard Grade: A
Biggest Matchup of Week 1 - Zacherman vs. Ajay
It's hard to predict much about the relative importance of a fantasy matchup heading into Week 1, but this year there is a slightly added importance on the divisions than there was in the past. Ajay vs. Z is one of three intra-division matchups this week, and with Zeke's one week stay of execution, it has added importance because it's one of 6 weeks that Z will get to use his prize RB. We all assumed Z would get out to a good start last night when it looked like Gronk pulled in a nice TD, but the call was reversed, and he was mostly held in check the rest of the game. This looks a lot like a toss up, and could easily come down to Brees vs. Demaryius on MNF. I like Zacherman's matchups a little bit better, so I'm picking Brees to slightly hold off DT for the win.
2017 Biggest Matchup Record: 0-0
Gambling Corner
Because I don't have a ton to write about this week, and because I just put down a lot of money on a Latvian betting website, I thought I would list my bets for this week/season to hopefully inspire more degenerates in this league than there already are. I'll keep doing this if people find it interesting, and if y'all don't then refer to the image above.
2017 NFL Season Bets
Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl (28:1)
Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl (10:1)
Cam Newton MVP (25:1)
Isaiah Crowell Leads NFL in Rushing (50:1)
Arizona Cardinals over 8.5 wins
Chicago Bears over 5.5 wins
Cincinnati Bengals under 8.5 wins
Denver Broncos under 8.5 wins
Detroit Lions under 8 wins
Houston Texans under 8.5 wins
Los Angeles Chargers over 7.5 wins
Los Angeles Rams over 5.5 wins
New York Giants under 9 wins
Oakland Raiders under 10 wins
Tampa Bay Bucs under 8.5 wins
2017 NFL Week 1 Bets
Chicago Bears (+7) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Detroit Lions (+2) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Oakland Raiders (+2) at Tennessee Titans
2017 NCAA Week 2 Bets
North Carolina (+10) vs. Louisville
South Carolina (+3) at Missouri
Stanford (+6) at USC
Record: 3-0
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