Stevens Bowl XIII Preview

Guess who's back? I'm taking a brief break from the end of Paternity Leave to write the blog, as it apparently brings luck to whoever writes it. The league narrowly avoided the darkest timeline, but things are still pretty rough from a rooting perspective. But now that the we've completed the semi-final Birthday Buddy Bowl and Fraud Bowl, we're left with...

Weissbard! Kumpf! It's the Steven's Bowl XIII!

(While Barnard's collapse was hilarious, it did deprive us of a potentially all-time Elf Yourself. But I make the rules, so here you go.)

I'm honestly not sure if the league would prefer me to finally get my coat, or a full blown Danasty complete with an oven mitt. Let's break it down.

Stevens Bowl XIII - Kumpf vs. Weissbard

Quarterback
I'm on the record calling Justin Herbert the second coming of Carson Wentz, but he is clearly better than Kirk Cousins (who is still shockingly QB9 on the season). Matchup-wise, Denver's defense is more difficult than Green Bay's, but it's supposed to be 12 degrees in Green Bay on Sunday and I don't picture Cousins liking the cold. If Weiss wants to repeat, he needs at least a 10 point advantage here, and on paper he should get it.

Edge: Weissbard

Runningback

This is probably the weakest RB situation we've ever had in a Stevens Bowl. Mixon has been shockingly reliable all season, and Montgomery hasn't been too much worse when he's healthy, but beyond that jeeeez. I doubt me or Dan makes a final lineup decision until Sunday, but we're likely seeing at least two of Latavius Murray, Myles Gaskin, Dare Ogunbowale, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Derrick Gore, and Duke Johnson, feature prominently in the biggest game of the season. I don't think anything is really predictable here beyond the top 2, and Monty's workload against a pathetic G-Men team should offset the slight talent/situation advantage that Mixon has.

Edge: Even

Wide Receiver

Jaylen Waddle's absurd workload is the primary reason why Weissbard is here in the first place. Combine that with Amari's quiet but steady WR2 season, and this is a strong position for Weissbard. But my WR situation is silly right now. Kupp's season has been in MVP discussions, Diontae Johnson has 17 more targets than Waddle, and AJ Brown is literally the only skill player in Tennessee. Even if Waddle and Amari have huge days, this position should be mine.

Big Edge: Kumpf

Tight End

Yes, Mark Andrews has been the TE1 for most of the season as an individual player. But the streamers that Weissbard has rolled out on  weekly basis have come close to outscoring Andrews while in Dan's lineup. He's probably rolling with Knox (underrated pickup of the year), but consider that Weiss has gotten 11 TDs from his Tight Ends this season. including ones from Dallas Goedert, Austin Hooper, and Pat Freiermuth. All I'm saying is this is closer than it looks.

Edge: Kumpf

D/ST

I'm rolling with my Fins against a Titans team that loves to turn the ball over. Not ideal when I need a big day from AJB, but this scenario worked for Weissbard last week so I'm hoping lightning strikes twice. Dan is in much better shape with a solid Saints D facing whatever the hell is going on in Carolina.

Edge: Weissbard

Pick:

ESPN has me relatively heavily favored for a Stevens Bowl, which points scored and roster health would agree with. I also have the new dad bump working in my favor, though I'm unclear how that works against another dad. I think this will probably come down to Diontae on MNF, which means either an easy win or a broken collarbone after dropping his first pass. I've been on the luckier side with injuries and COVID so far this year, but I think this is where it comes to an end. Hopefully Sheila's first words are "reverse JuJu." Bring on the Danasty.

Pick: Weissbard

In the Rogers Bowl, I'll take Barnard and hope that he outscores both me and Weissbard to really maximize the pain.

Semi-Final Preview (Guest Post)

 Note: My paternity leave extends to the blog, so our defending champion has admirably and surprisingly offered to step in and write up a preview to the Final Four. I will likely put together some sort of Stevens Bowl preview next week, but until then, enjoy.

With our commish newly in charge of helping raise a human, I've volunteered as tribute to write the semi-final. You're probably thinking, oo a Hunger Games reference in the first line? Is he going movie theme? Maybe it'll just be a series of gifs hieroglyphic style for everyone to interpret for no words? Or in true Weissbard fashion will it be 3/4 of 1 matchup preview and then just stop? Honestly, probably the latter, maybe the gif thing, and definitely not movie themed. My previews are based very little on actual data/facts and more so on gut feeling which besides the past 3 years when I started using external drafting tools has led me to a sub-500 record which I am never going to recover from. (Tiger King themed preview????) Anyway, off we go.

Bernard vs The Bard

Constantly ranked #1 and #2 in the rivalry rankings, this is one of those matchups where nobody wants either of us to win (insert Larry David Palestinian Chicken gif)(Editor's Note: I am unsure if Weiss really wants me to insert this gif but I think it's funnier with the description). Barnard winning means all jokes about being terrible at fantasy come to an immediate stop, and Ajay will now only be able to respond to any of Barnard's trash talk with "chef's hat?" instead of "chef's coat?". If I win I become the first 3peat winner, can label myself a dynasty with 3 wins in 4 years, and receive validation that my incessant reverse jujuing and "oops wrong group" messages actually have a positive effect on things and will probably ramp up the frequency of said messages. So who will win? Great question Reap thanks for asking.

QB

Mahomes and the Chiefs in general have been playing lights out recently. A lot of that has been 2007 Super Bowl Champion, 18 wins 1 GIANT loss, defensive coordinator Spags, turning things around. But a hefty amount of that has also been Kelce remembering he's the best TE in the league and Tyreek focusing more on football and less on domestic abuse. Herbert on the other hand has been pretty consistent all season and has shrugged off any 2nd year wentz comparisons some people throw at him. Covid is obviously a huge factor here as Pat may be Reek/Kelce-less while Herbert could be Ek-less. Matchup wise, the chiefs have a suddenly tough again Stillers while the Chargers get to beat up on the Poopston (lol) Texans. If either one of Kelce/Tyreek play I'll call it a wash, otherwise I gotta give it to my man, DANCING RICK.

RB

(Author Note: I am seriously regretting starting this and may just stop now and give final projections)

Every single one of Barnard's RB is questionable right now except for Sony who barring another random Henderson injury is an rbbc at best. Josh Jacobs I feel like was hurt for a while and the raiders kinda stink? Stevenson should be solid, especially if the Pats play the Bills like they did last time and run it 99% of the plays. Sanders gets the shitty gmen but Hurts will probably vulture a bunch of TDs. Meanwhile for me I have Monty who should be solid but Nagy is dumb. CEH is interesting because if all those studs for KC are out, there could be lots of running/screens/dump offs. Or Mahomes will just keep slinging and people with names like Pringle will catch 3 TDs. We also have a Chuba revenge game going on though the Panthers have been possibly a bottom 5 NFL team recently and the Bucs run D is no joke which means we may get a Dookie (insert dookie from scary movie gif) Johnson game in the 2021 semi-finals. What a world. We'll call this a wash as well

WR

Obviously a lot of this depends on if Reek actually plays. If he doesn't, Barnard is left with correctly guessing who will have the breakout game between Pringle or Hardman or if Sutton will randomly decide to remember how to play football. Barnard could be smart and whoever he doesn't play, bet on the other person to make $, but instead he'll probably bet on Kelce to throw first TD pass. My WR situation has Waddle who is 2nd behind only Kupp in receptions this year. Or something like that, I forget the exact stat I read on reddit but trust me, it was a good one. And Cooper who honestly hasn't been great and the cowboys offense in general has been weird, but they are playing WFT. But maybe I'll play Jeudy to spite Barnard's team or Gabriel Davis so if he scores it's a double whammy vs the Pats, idk idk. Either way Barn dogs get the slight edge woof woof

TE

Knox has been GOLD for me (aaay), for a while, but then also poops the bed randomly. True of most TE this year outside a few studs. Maybe I'm biased because I'm a Giants fan but they might be historically the worst team at covering TE in the history of the NFL. Plus Goedert has the revenge game factor with a chip on his shoulder. Slight edge Barn dogs woof woof

Def

Rams @ Minnesota? No Cook now but Mattison is still a very good backup. I have no idea how good the Rams are against the run, but I assume Vikings will run the ball pretty well and JJ is good for a TD or 3. But Von and Donald are both very good football players. On the other side the Saints just completely shut down the Bucs which they were helped by a number of injuries, and the Dolphins have been hot (though against garbage teams). So Saints at the superdome should be nice, but I also feel like the Saints randomly shit the bed pretty frequently this year. Wash.

Winner - It'll be a toss up and Barnard will most likely send multiple mean texts to me. It's a good thing he doesn't know how to send video messages or I'd be getting his drunken squinty eyed anime hair video messages all day. Barnard squeaks one out by < 10 and the fraudbards season comes to an end.

Billy/Kumpf the Texas Dad Showdown

Kumpf may legitimately be happier with a chef coat than with a new daughter. And Billy is trying to finally prove that Marshall wasn't the brains behind the operation when he won his only chef's coat. Lots of bragging rights here like who the better dad is, who's better at Texasing, and I guess that's it. I'm trying to get this all done while Lily eats her breakfast so probably won't be my best work.

QB

Cam has looked so, so bad lately and the Bucs are coming off an awful 9-0 loss so you have to imagine they'll come out on fire. That being said, Cam is still probably good for a rushing TD and some yards there and Billy's other option Carr is hit or miss but does give him the Renfrow double up which could be nice, especially being in an early hole with AJ Brown's sudden resurgence. Kumpf on the other hand is trotting out either Captain Kirk who is probably good for a 187 yards 2 td 1 int game or Matty Ice who might put up 2 points or 25 vs the suddenly not awful Lions? Hopefully cousins built that popemobile plexiglass barrier he was talking about otherwise he might be catching Cook's coco. Don't think the qb will make or break this matchup, but giving slight edge to Kev.

(author's note: I've now moved from my laptop to phone so what was already a sloppy production is only getting worse) 

RB

I don't even think it's worth the effort to write about this since it's so one sided. Taylor alone might outscore Mixon and Reynolds/Gaskin. But then again Mixon had a nice month of 20+ weeks, which still leaves najee. If Billy wants a shot at winning this he's gonna need 20+ from each and hope Mixon doesn't score.

Wr (idk how to bold on my phone  but this does open up a whole world of emojiis ) 

Honestly as one sided as the rb matchup is, the wr matchup is just as skewed in the opposite direction. Feels weird saying this but without renfrow Billy would be in a terrible spot. I saw someone on reddit call him the Walmart Kupp which I think is an apt comparison. Other than that, Gallup and Osborn aren't bad (imagine that was italicized), but anything more than like 13 from each would be a surprise. Kuppf on the other hand has the top scoring player in fantasy who may break some wr record, a now healthy Aj brown who obviously had his monster game and the only viable receiver for big Ben who gets like 15 targets a game. Big advantage to commish 

TE

Another not even close one. While I declared myself the te whisperer, billy has consistently streamed TEs who end up scoring. Uzomah has a dope name and has randomly had 2td games, but it would be quite the surprise. Andrews meanwhile has cemented himself as the number 1 te and has multiple 30+ weeks which is more than most players in any position can say. I think Huntley playing actually helps because of the classic "new qb used te as a safety valve", but Lamar playing doesn't hurt either. Big advantage kev 

Def

Billy's been rolling with the bills which I think has been... Fine? They've had a bunch of double digit weeks which you can't ask for more from a defense, but have a tough matchup at the pats. Dolphins meanwhile are one of the hotter teams, though it has been vs teams like the jets twice, Texans, giants, etc. But it seems like the covid train is running on through nawlins and saints now have 3rd string qb. Kamara is still obviously a challenge but a rando at qb is never great. Slight advantage kumpf 

Final prediction 

Obviously fantasy is 90% luck except for last season and 2 seasons before that and potentially this season. But based on the past performances, my statistical model is showing big win for kumpf. I did also get a D in engineering stats (and a 4 or 5 on the AP test nbd) so take that prediction however you want. 

There you have it folks. By default, this is the best 2021 FALAFEL semi-final preview out there so no one can complain. A kumpf barnard final where Barnard can erase decades worth of embarrassment and forever hold this over Kevin's head. On the other hand, Kumpf can add a nuclear bomb option to his already impressive ammunition cache of ways to attack Barnard. Join us next week for the finals preview which will 100% be fully done.

Week 13 Recap/Final Playoff Scenarios

Probably the busiest week of my life, so keeping things brief outside of the playoff scenarios.

This is how things stand currently:

Playoff Picture:
1. Billy - Best Regular Season Record - Division Champ - Bye
2. Weissbard - Wild Card 1 - Bye
3. Kumpf - Division Champ
4. Zacherman - Wild Card 2
5. Barnard - Division Champ
6. Ajay - NiJo Spot

For everything below, I'm considering 50 points as the cutoff for what is possible to make up in one week. I'm aware of the irony in saying this one week after Ajay beat me by 64, but we need to have a cutoff somewhere. This means that Esco, Gutman, Alan, Nick, and Bennett are eliminated barring an Ajay-like week.

Best Regular Season Record/Weissbard Division Champ/Bye #1
This is straightforward. If Billy beats AGD or Weissbard loses to Esco, Billy clinches these spots. If Billy loses and Weissbard wins, then Weissbard clinches these spots.

Wild Card 1/Bye #2
Whoever loses out on the top spot gets this one by default. No one else is eligible.

Levine Division Champ
Despite Ajay's best efforts, I have clinched this spot and will be either the 3 seed (if I beat Barnard), 4 seed (if I lose to Barnard and Zacherman loses to Ajay), or 5 seed (if I lose and Z wins).

Gutman Division Champ
Things cleared up here a bit thanks to Barnard's solid week and Alan's Hot Potato performance, so Barnard has clinched this spot. If he wins, Barnard will be either the 3 seed (if Z loses, or if he outscores a winning Z team by 0.6) or 4 seed (if Z wins and Barnard doesn't outscore him by 0.6). If he loses, Barnard will be either the 4 or 5 seed depending on how the points scored breaks down for the 7-7 teams.

Wild Card 2
Zacherman controls his own destiny here. If he beats Ajay, he gets clinches this spot, but if he loses he is eliminated from this spot.. A Z loss means Ajay wins and takes over the lead for this spot. He has a 36 point lead over Levine, who would have to beat Alan and overcome that deficit to claim this spot. No one else is eligible.

NiJo Spot
This is heavily contingent on who clinches Wild Card 2. As it stands, the points situation for all eligible teams is:
- Ajay:         +0.0
- AGD:        -20.06
- Levine:     -36.32
- Marco:      -39.24
-Z:               -42.20

If Z beats Ajay, then the rest of these teams need to outscore Ajay by the points listed above. If Ajay beats Z, then you can all subtract 20.06 by the numbers above and that's how much you need to outscore AGD by. Wins and losses don't matter here outside of the Ajay/Z matchup.

Playoff predictions after MotW and Rivalry Week predictions.

Week 14 Power Rankings

1. Ajay (Last Week: 6th) 

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 1st) 

3. Levine (Last Week: 2nd) 

4. Weissbard (Last Week: 7th) -

5. Billy (Last Week: 3rd) 

6. Zacherman (Last Week: 5th) 

7. AGD (Last Week: 4th) 

8. Mejia (Last Week: 11th) 

9. Barnard (Last Week: 8th) 

10. Nick (Last Week: 9th) 

11. Gutman (Last Week: 13th) 

12. Alan (Last Week: 10th) 

13. Marco (Last Week: 12th) 

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th) 

Matchup of the Week: Ajay vs. Zacherman

Everything is coming up Ajay right now. He has benefitted from the injuries to Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Deebo Samuel, and if Darrell Henderson can get healthy, this is improbably the strongest roster in the league by a decent margin. Zacherman is not slouch either, but is currently holding on by a thread, with Stafford, Zeke, and JRob all struggling compared to a few weeks ago.

The stakes here are made clear above, but the winner clinches Wild Card 2, and the loser, while still in decent NiJo position, will have a lot more competition. The matchup will start quickly with Ajay's Rams, and end with some madness on MNF between Stafford, Hendo, and Van. The big differences in roster quality here are at WR2, TE, and Flex, where Ajay gets to roll out CD, Kittle, and Hendo against Zacherman's Van, Ertz, and Elijah Moore. That's a potential 50-point advantage from Ajay, which should be enough to clinch him the Wild Card while sending the NiJo race into chaos.

Pick: Ajay
MotW Record: 5-8

Rivalry Week 2 Predictions:
Kumpf over Barnard
AGD over Billy
Levine over Alan
Mejia over Nick
Weissbard over Esco
Marco over Gutman
Ajay over Zacherman
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Playoff Prediction:
1. Weissbard
2. Billy
3. Kumpf
4. Ajay
5. Barnard
6. AGD

Week 12 Recap

The trade deadline came and went without any action, which means everyone's team is more or less set for the stretch run. I say more or less because injuries to both CMC and Dalvin have essentially ended Mejia's season, given Ajay re-renewed hope, and put a cap on Weissbard's upside (though not enough to re-introduce the Fraudbard narrative).

This will likely be the last "real" post of the season, as I have Finals next week and then a Baby the week after, so we'll do a deep dive on the playoff picture so I can make quick adjustments over the next two weeks.

This is how things stand currently:

Playoff Picture:
1. Billy - Best Regular Season Record - Division Champ - Bye
2. Weissbard - Wild Card 1 - Bye
3. Kumpf - Division Champ
4. Zacherman - Wild Card 2
5. Barnard - Division Champ
6. AGD - NiJo Spot

There's madness in spots 4 and 5, but let's get everyone else out of the way first.

Best Regular Season Record/Weissbard Division Champ/Bye #1
This has been a two-man race for awhile now, with Billy and Weissbard moving in lockstep. Billy has a 150 point lead over Weiss, so the magic number is essentially 1 for Billy to clinch. If Billy loses out and Weissbard wins out, then Weiss takes the spot. Everyone else is eliminated.

Wild Card 1/Bye #2
Whoever loses out on the top spot gets this one by default. No one else is eligible.

Levine Division Champ
I'm up over 100 points on both Levine and Mejia, so I would need to lose out and have one of them win out to fall out of this spot. Levine faces Weissbard and Mejia faces Billy this week, which makes a couple of these races very interesting.

NiJo Spot
This is where things start to get crazy. If I fall out of the division lead, I have an 85 point lead on everyone else here. So for the teams vying for this spot, you need to root for me over everyone else. I appreciate the support. Beyond that, AGD is up less than 60 on 8 teams (not including Weissbard, who is shockingly 10-2 with the 11th most points scored), all of whom I think are in play. Given that AGD is a game back in the Division/Wild Card 2 race, they have to be the favorites here, but I'd give Z, Levine, and Ajay a decent shot the way their rosters look right now.

Gutman Division Champ
What a mess this is. Barnard is currently in the lead by 4 points over Alan, with a strong AGD team lurking a game back and Gutman somehow still alive. Barnard and AGD face off in a huge matchup this week (teaser). A Barnard win eliminates AGD from the division, which also makes them the favorite for the NiJo spot, so everyone should be rooting against Barnard. I appreciate the support. A Barnard loss and an Alan win puts him in the driver's seat, but in Week 14, Alan faces Levine, AGD face Billy, and Barnard faces me, so I would assume none of them are favored to get to 8 wins. Right now I'll give Alan a slight advantage based on him facing Marco this week, but it's really 35% Alan, 30% AGD, 30% Barnard, 5% Gutman.

Wild Card 2
This is basically a battle between Zacherman and Levine. They are by far the two best 6-6 teams, and their rosters are in fine shape compared to some of the other contenders for this spot. Z gets Esco this week, which gives him a massive leg up in the race, followed by Ajay, while Levine gets Weissbard and Alan. If they both lose out, this gets very interesting, as it opens up room for the Barnard/Bennett/Alan/AGD/Ajay group of mediocrity to make a move out of the NiJo race. I'll give Z a slight edge over Levine thanks to the Esco matchup, but I don't think this will be any more clear a week from now.

Week 13 Power Rankings

1. Kumpf (Last Week: 1st) 

2. Levine (Last Week: 2nd) 

3. Billy (Last Week: 4th) 

4. AGD (Last Week: 5th) 

5. Zacherman (Last Week: 6th) 

6. Ajay (Last Week: 8th) 

7. Weissbard (Last Week: 3rd) 

8. Barnard (Last Week: 9th) 

9. Nick (Last Week: 7th) 

10. Alan (Last Week: 10th) 

11. Mejia (Last Week: 11th) 

12. Marco (Last Week: 12th) 

13. Gutman (Last Week: 13th) 

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th) 

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Barnard

Almost every matchup has a big impact this week. Ajay and I are both projected over 110, the Weissbard/Levine and Billy/Mejia matchups could affect the bye and eliminate someone from the division, and every other matchup has at least NiJo implications. However, as discussed, Barnard vs. AGD has the most far-reaching impact. A Barnard win means AGD can only get into the playoffs via the NiJo spot, but if they lose then they may no longer be leading the pack. An AGD win throws the Gutman division into chaos heading into Rivalry Week. And Belfer still needs to pay Barnard, putting some financial incentives in play as well.

As for the matchup itself, Barnard is not in great shape. Deebo is out, Sanders is likely limited, and the Mahomes/Tyreek/Sutton trio will need to do a lot of legwork on SNF. Outside of Mahomes, I would expect the Rams D/ST to be his leading scorer, but they could easily break 20 in a Ramsey revenge game. 

AGD should have it a lot easier, though not in terms of lineup decisions. Luckily for them, Kamara plays Thursday so they should know his status before having to decide anything else. But even if he doesn't play, it looks like Jamaal Williams will get the start in Detroit, and the Godwin/Chase/Pittman trio all have great matchups. I've been overly confident in these picks a few times this year and seen it backfire, but unless Mahomes and Tyreek combine for 60, I don't see Barnard keeping up here.

Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 5-7
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4