Rivalry Week Preview

We have somehow made it to the last week of the regular season without any NFL games being cancelled. Whether that's a good thing or not is a discussion for another day, because it's time for Rivalry Week!

I'll quickly run through each matchup at the bottom, as with a big $50 on the line, everyone has skin in the game this week. But the majority of this week's post will focus on...

Playoff Picture

First things first. If the season ended today, the seeds would be:
1. Weissbard (Best Regular Season Record, AGD Division Champ, Bye)
2. Esco (Levine Division Champ, Bye)
3. Levine (Wild Card 1)
4. AGD (Wild Card 2)
5. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
6. Gutman (NiJo Spot)

Let's look at each team's playoff hopes. For these races, I'm assuming that any one team cannot outscore another team by more than 66.04 points. This is the difference between Bennett and AGD, and keeps the most teams realistically alive this week. I have ordered the teams by likelihood to make the playoffs.

1. Weissbard - Clinched playoffs. Can clinch a bye and Best Overall Record by beating Esco. Cannot fall farther than 4th seed.

2. Esco - Clinched playoffs. Can clinch a bye and Best Overall Record by beating Weissbard. Cannot fall farther than 5th seed.

3. Marco - Can clinch playoffs with a win over Gutman. The only way he misses the playoffs is if he loses to Gutman by more than 12.58 and is also outscored by Barnard by more than 50.78. He can fall anywhere between the 2nd seed and a bye, to out of the playoffs.

4. AGD - Can clinch playoffs with a win over Billy. The only way they miss the playoffs is if they lose to Billy, Barnard beats Ajay, and Barnard outscores AGD by 27.89. In that situation they could avoid elimination if they outscore a losing Levine team by 17.13 and outscore Gutman by 10.33. They can fall anywhere between the 2nd seed and a bye, to out of the playoffs. I only have them ahead of Levine here because their Rivalry Week matchup is far easier.

5. Levine - Can clinch playoffs with a win over Bennett. The only way he misses the playoffs is if he loses to Bennett, Barnard beats Ajay, and Barnard outscores Levine by 45.01. In that situation he could avoid elimination if he is not outscored by a losing AGD team by 17.13, and is not outscored by Gutman by 6.9. He can fall anywhere between the 2nd seed and a bye, to out of the playoffs.

6. Gutman - Has a few paths to the playoffs. If he beats Marco by more than 12.58, he wins the division and clinches a top 5 seed. Even if he loses or doesn't have the margin to pass Marco, he is the leader in the clubhouse for the NiJo spot, with leads of 10.32 over AGD, 38.2 over Barnard. The only way he misses the playoffs is if he is outscored by Barnard by 38.21. Gutman's rise from the dead may seem incredible, but if you've been following this blog closely, you'll remember that I mentioned this all the way back in Week 6 as something in play for a soon-to-be 2-5 Gutman team.

7. Barnard - The most fun situation to discuss. Based on the 66.04 point limit, Barnard cannot pass Esco, and he's not eligible to win Gutman's division, so his only options are the Wild Cards and the NiJo spot. To get a Wild Card he needs to beat Ajay, and outscore a losing AGD team by 27.89, or outscore a losing Levine team by 45.01. To get the NiJo spot, he needs to outscore a losing Marco team by 50.79, or outscore a losing Gutman team by 38.21. Lots of faint hope for Barnard, which means he's basically rooting against the entire league and hoping that trading for Week 13 bye players didn't sink his season.

8. Bennett - This is not as fun as Barnard because it is much simpler and much more unrealistic. To make the playoffs, Bennett needs to beat Levine and outscore a losing AGD team by 66.04. If Bennett has that big of a week, he can theoretically catch Gutman for the NiJo spot or Levine for a Wild Card, but it's more likely that the season gets cancelled than things break Bennett's way.

Everyone else is eliminated, ending my historic four-year playoff streak.

Matchups of the Week:

These matchups will be listed in order of significance, and the "analysis" will also reflect that.

Matchup 1: Alan vs. Zacherman

There are two matchups with absolutely no playoff ramifications, and this gets the bottom spot for reasons I'll discuss in a minute. This matchup will come down to whether or not Lamar and Andrews can play against a porous Dallas defense on Tuesday. Right now it's very up in the air, but I'll lean towards Z anyway because he has better matchups.

Pick: Zacherman

Matchup 2: Joseph vs. Kumpf

Nick has been suspiciously quiet this season, and while paying Barnard was a positive step, I feel like we may start to hear rumblings that he's re-retiring very soon. That would have a ripple effect throughout the league, as AGD's performance has been shockingly different together than apart, so we may be stuck looking for replacements again. As for the matchup, a poor Nick team is missing Brady and Godwin, so a poor Kumpf team should roll.

Pick: Kumpf

Matchup 3: Ajay vs. Barnard

Barnard's playoff situation is very interesting, but the matchup itself isn't as important as him just putting up points. He'll have to do that without the help of Mike Evans and RoJo, with a lot riding on a Chiefs/Broncos game that will likely be on the low-scoring side. Best case scenario here is that Barnard outscores a losing Levine and/or AGD team by the requisite amount, but Ajay has his best game of the season to knock Barnard out of the playoffs anyway.

Pick: Barnard

Matchup 4: AGD vs. Billy

LOTS of playoff implications based on AGD's performance here, but a win is all-but guaranteed. An already abysmal Billy team is missing Dimes and DJ Moore, so even if the Raiders starting RB is switching sides, this matchup should not be close. Though I did say that about AGD last week...

Pick: AGD

Matchup 5: Esco vs. Weissbard

The stakes here are huge for the winner, but the loser is still in good shape. From a playoff perspective anyway, as Esco's team is falling apart in front of our eyes. Keke Coutee is in no way a substitute for a roided up Will Fuller, and between Julio, Swift, and Kamara, I put the over/under at 4 more games this season. On top of all that, Weissbard gets Ekeler back just as Conner gets the Rona. Baby Lily's coronation starts now.

Pick: Weissbard

Matchup 6: Gutman vs. Marco

These two teams improved themselves via trade more than any other teams over the course of the season (possibly related, they both traded with Barnard). Marco loses his Panthers RB stronghold, though Gutman's downgrade from Gronk to Fant may be just as large. This pick to me comes down to the current flex situation. Gutman has likely OROY and legit WR1 Justin Jefferson, Marco has the backup RB for the Bills.

Pick: Gutman

Matchup 7: Bennett vs. Levine

Maybe an unlikely pick for the most important matchup of the week given Bennett's play long-shot status, but Levine is the playoff contender who is most at risk of getting upset, which would potentially cause chaos. He's also listed as the underdog thanks to Robby Anderson's bye and Mixon's continued cursed existence. I like Levine's odds more than ESPN does, as I think the Vikings will ease Dalvin's workload if possible, which would benefit both Thielan and the Minny D. The Herbert/Cam showdown is a nice cherry on top here, and while the Chargers love finding ways to lose, Herbert still throws up numbers.

Pick: Levine

MotW Record: 9-6

Playoff Seed Predictions
1. Weissbard

2. AGD

3. Levine

4. Esco

5. Gutman

6. Marco

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Dolphins (-10) vs. Bengals

Titans (-4) vs. Browns

Raiders (-7) at Jets

Cardinals (+3) vs. Rams

Patriots (+1.5) at Chargers

Packers (-8) vs. Eagles

Steelers (-7) vs. Football Team

Bills (+1) vs. 49ers

Ravens (-7) vs. Cowboys

Last Week: 4-4
2020 Record: 34-32-3 (-2.48 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)