Well that was unexpected. Despite my Matchup of the Week predictions going 5-2, the two that I got wrong were the most influential as AGD completed an epic collapse and Esco extremely quietly earned himself Best Regular Season Record and a bye. Now we have Backdoor Barnard in the playoffs again, Dadbard surprisingly needs to play in Week 14, and Levine even more quietly got the other bye. Can't predict fantasy football.
AGD should be ashamed of themselves for losing to Billy in Week 14, which was their third loss to a non-playoff team, but they can't say I didn't warn them. Since the draft, I raved about their starting lineup but mentioned that their complete lack of depth left them vulnerable to injuries and would make trading difficult. They did make one trade, theoretically combining Flex options in McKinnon and some rookie WR for Kenny Golladay, but Golladay could never really get healthy and that rookie put up the best rookie WR season since Randy Moss. That left them starting Jalen Richard, Jakobi Meyers, and a WR catching passes from Colt McCoy with their season on the line. Maybe some time apart is what you guys need.
I'll cover Esco and Levine more next week, but even though they're not playing, they need to keep a close eye on Week 14. Esco may see De'Andre Swift come back, which means he may also see the modern day Jahvid Best get another concussion, putting "Adrian Peterson, playoff starter" in play. Julio's health and the backfield situations for the Rams and Jets are also important for a potential title run. Levine needs to hope that Herbert can score some points against Atlanta, while figuring out if he has a startable Tight End on his roster. The wild card out there for Levine is a Mixon return, though I don't know why they would bring him back at this point.
On to the Quarterfinals, Dr. Z style.
Matchup 1: 3) Weissbard vs. 6) Marco
QB:
What a showdown! Russ vs. Kyler and both playing the Jersey teams? Sign me up. The Giants D has proven itself the last few weeks, but I'm not sure how they'll contain Kyler once he's on the run. That said, I know how the Jets will handle Russ and it looks like 30+ points.
Edge: Marco
RB:
I'm assuming that neither CMC or Gibson plays, and that is bad news for Marco. Mike Davis could still be legit, and maybe Peyton Barber can break 25 yards if he gets 20 carries, but Weissbard's stable of RB1s wins the day here no matter who he goes with.
Big Edge: Weissbard
WR:
Keenan Allen should have himself a day against a terrible Falcons D, and I really like Crowder with Darnold back (Higgins is a non-factor without Burrow), but let's be real, Tyreek/Nuk/Diggs is untouchable.
Big Edge: Weissbard
TE:
Hunter Henry benefits from the same Falcons D that helps Keenan, and as long as they don't cannibalize each other (or we have a Mike Williams game?), I like Marco's situation here. Bonus points for Engram dropping a pass that leads to a game-turning pick six against the Cards.
Edge: Marco
DST:
The Panthers defense is nothing special, but Drew Lock loves turning the ball over, so it's not a bad situation this week. Marco is likely setting himself up for disaster by starting WFT in a must-win for both teams, and while they have a nice front seven, I trust Shanny to find some holes.
Slight Edge: Weissbard
Overall:
There was bound to be a week where Weissbard failed to break 100, as he had six straight weeks of triple digits heading into Rivalry Week, and that happened last week. That is not going to happen this week, and unless one or both of Marco's RBs has a miraculous recovery or Russ breaks 50, I don't think Marco has the firepower to keep up.
Pick: Weissbard
Matchup 2: 4) Barnard vs. 5) Gutman
QB:
Another incredible QB showdown! We probably have the top four MVP candidates facing off this week, which gives a significantly higher floor to both matchups than usual. For this one, I'm taking my life in my hands and going against Mahomes. Not only are the Dolphins a more difficult matchup than the Lions, but the Chiefs have low-key struggled to score TDs, failing to get one on their last 7 redzone trips, the longest streak in the league this year (come to the FALAFEL blog for Gutman's goofy face, stay for the random NFL trivia). Not a big edge, but one that will absolutely matter.
Slight Edge: Gutman
RB:
This is a tough one. Gutman should get 30+ from Henry against the Jags, but the dropoff to Gallman is pretty significant. Barnard's got Chubb, Melvin, and RoJo with different levels of competition, and a high floor of touches despite there being no evidence that Melvin and RoJo are good at football. I would love it if these guys decided to roll out Ingram vs. Dobbins on MNF, but I'll take Barnard's quantity over Gut's quality here.
Slight Edge: Barnard
WR:
Brandon Aiyuk is clearly Gutman's fourth best receiver, and he would clearly be Barnard's best receiver.
Big Edge: Gutman
TE:
If Gronk scores, there is no way Gutman loses because it takes away a needed chance from Evans/RoJo. That said, if it wasn't for Kelce, Waller would be getting a shit ton of stories written about him this year.
Big Edge: Barnard
DST:
This is a fun one. Barnard has to bite the bullet and start a legit Rams D against the Pats in a must-win for them tonight. Gutman has the #1 DST on the season, but they're coming off a subpar performance against WFT and will have a tough matchup with the Bills. Defensive TD potential aside, I'm siding with Donald and Co.
Slight Edge: Barnard
Overall:
Having Chubb on MNF is a nice last licks for Barnard, but I really can't get past that WR matchup, where any one of Gut's guys could outscore both of Barnard's receivers combined by 10+. This would be a lot closer if Barnard had a guy like DK Metcalf, but I guess there's always next year.
Pick: Gutman
MotW Record: 14-8
2020 Record: 39-36-3 (-2.22 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)
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