Welp, it's official. This is a Chef's Hat year. Thanks to Aaron Rodgers, Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs, Barnard and Marco fade into Bolivia leaving only previous champs in the Final Four for the first time ever. The No Coats Club remains at six teams for another year, and if Nick leaves again then we're back down to five.
The Final Four includes what is probably our four strongest teams. At full strength, Marco may have had something to say about that, but starting Peyton Barber, Tee Higgins, and Marvin Jones in a playoff game is a pretty strong counterpoint. I have Weissbard and Gutman as a clear 1-2, as Esco and Levine have somewhat depleted rosters, but as we saw with Barnard making the playoffs after actively harming his team on a weekly basis, anything can happen this year.
Let's take a closer look at who will advance to Stevens Bowl XII, Dr. Z-style:
Matchup 1: 1) Esco vs. 5) Gutman
QB:
This position was a definite weakness for these teams early in the season, but Gutman made some savvy trades to address things, while Esco was never able to get Barnard to give up Mahomes for RoJo. On top of that, Gutman stole Jalen Hurts, leaving Esco with a tough choice between Tua and Big Ben. Esco has Tua in right now (I would definitely go with Ben), but it doesn't matter in this analysis.
Big Edge: Gutman
RB:
Another week where Gutman needs to hope Henry can outscore multiple opposing RBs combined, and another week where it's actually in play given that he faces the Lions. Kamara and Swift should be solid, and Cam Akers has turned into a potential league-winner for Esco. Akers gets the Jets, but that might not be a good thing given that Seattle benched their starters in the third quarter last week. There is a huge range of outcomes with this position, but it's one that Esco absolutely needs if he wants a chance this week. I like his odds.
Edge: Esco
WR:
We probably won't know Julio's status until after Friday's practice, but for these purposes I'm assuming he does not play and Barnard gets one last laugh this season. That leaves Gutman with a similar situation as last week, where he has four receivers that are probably better than any of his opponent's best guy. The biggest decision is whether Gutman starts Aiyuk over Woods or Jefferson. I think I'd probably start him over Woods, who is already banged up and might not see too many snaps against the Jets, but even if Julio plays, this isn't close.
Big Edge: Gutman
TE:
Both Hock and Gronk are extremely TD-dependent, and they both get to play terrible pass defenses this week. Hock is a bigger part of his offense, but with Stafford seemingly unlikely to play, that may even things out. I'm not going to predict who gets the random two-yard TD so this is a true coin flip.
Edge: Even
DST:
A continuation of Gutman's excellent roster management saw him flip Devante Parker and the Fins D to a desperate Kumpf team for Aiyuk and the Steelers D. Whether he starts Aiyuk or not, Pitt's D gets to feast on the decimated Bengals, while Esco has to hope the Giants can tread water against Cleveland without Bradberry.
Big Edge: Gutman
Overall:
Esco's team has been extremely solid all year, but as previously mentioned repeatedly, he's been propped up by TDs. Adding Cam Akers was huge, but losing both Will Fuller and likely Julio means the #1 overall seed is going to be a one and done.
Pick: Gutman
Matchup 2: 2) Levine vs. 3) Weissbard
QB:
Herbert did a great job keeping Levine's season afloat after the Dak injury, and Kyler hasn't looked right in weeks, but it seems like the Chargers will have no pass catchers tonight and that doubly hurts Levine.
Edge: Weissbard
RB:
Montgomery has low-key been a top 10 RB this year, but again, this isn't really close. Moss might vulture a TD or two, and JRob has to face the Ravens, but Ekeler is in line for double digit targets and likely has a baseline of 20 points. Levine is too banged up to keep up.
Edge: Weissbard
WR:
This is Levine's strongest position by far, with Ridley establishing himself even without Julio, and Thielen and Robby top 20 options as well. Having said that, no one can touch Weiss's trio of top 10 (5?) options. I'm sensing a theme here...
Edge: Weissbard
TE:
Logan Thomas vs. Evan Engram? Gross.
Edge: Even
DST:
Levine is starting a below average Vikings defense against a bottom 10 offense in Chicago. Weissbard is starting a terrible Chargers defense against an average offense in the Raiders. Not a lot of upside in either case, but Weiss could end up in the negatives.
Edge: Levine
Overall:
Levine avoided the ultimate embarrassment of starting 7-0 and missing the playoffs, and even got a bye for his troubles, but the road ends here. He put up a hell of a fight after losing Dak and Mixon, but the firepower the Weiss has at receiver, along with Ekeler's resurgence, sets up a meeting of the previous two champs.
Pick: Weissbard
MotW Record: 16-8
2020 Record: 41-39-3 (-3.48 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)
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