Welp! My optimism about the season went up in smoke pretty quickly, and my team's fortunes with it. While the league seems to have a plan for the Titans/Steelers game last week, it's obviously not the last time that games will be affected, including potentially the Titans/Bills, Pats/Broncos, and Chiefs/Raiders games this week. If a Week 18 is added, fantasy likely won't be able to adjust, leaving some teams more screwed than others. Nothing we can really do about it, but the asterisk on this year is getting larger.
We obviously had a shit ton of trades this week, and even last weeks were already influential. If Levine and I didn't make our trade, I would have beaten Ajay and Levine would have still beaten Z but by only 0.06! Marco and Zacherman's trade didn't change anyone's fortunes this week, but Marco was lucky to get Singletary before Ekeler's injury, which would have given Z more leverage in their trade talks. The Mixon deal obviously stings for me, but I would bet that whoever starts for Atlanta outscores Mixon for the rest of the season.
Let's see how this week's trades affect things (my thoughts as the trades came in):
Trade Grade 3
Barnard receives Julio Jones, Mark Ingram, and Ryan Fitzpatrick
Gutman receives DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen, and Sony Michel
Despite the names involved, this trade isn't all that exciting. Barnard was completely screwed at RB with Chubb hurt and Melvin about to lose touches, so his solution was to...add a goalline back who might be getting phased out of his own (admittedly high-powered) offense? Julio is nice (though potentially washed), but not a clear upgrade on DK, let alone losing Keenan, and now Edelman is a weekly starter which is less than ideal. I will say that his roster is more balanced now, but it's worse overall, so the trade was likely not worth it.
Speaking of balance! Gutman now has five startable WRs with Rob Woods, DK, Keenan, Golladay, and MVS (borderline but I like him), and his only startable RB might get a second game postponed. Gut's biggest need was QB, which this does not address, and he can literally not start all the best players on his roster. He got the better end of this deal from a value perspective, but he needs to make another move pronto.
Grades:
Barnard: D+
Gutman: C-
Trade Grade 5
AGD receives Kenny Golladay
Gutman receives Justin Jefferson and Jerick McKinnon
On cue! Going slightly out of order here, as I can't stop laughing at Gutman. Once again, I think he probably got the better value in the deal, with Jefferson a downgrade at WR (but one Gutman can afford), while adding an RB that is flex-worthy even when all the San Fran RBs are healthy (McKinnon has scored in every game so far). But who the hell is Gut going to start every week? Henry's team has COVID, the rest of his RBs are either splitting carries, on a terrible team, or both, and the WR situation is strong but he can still only start a max of three of them. Gut has taken over for Barnard as deepest team in the league, but it's by far the most confusing roster I've ever seen. And he still has jack shit at QB!
AGD is clearly making moves for some Chef's hats, as combining depth for an upgraded starting lineup is a textbook trading from strength move. I get a little worried about that strategy this year of all years, where lack of a bench can lead to Alan starting Tony Pollard and JD McKissic at RB, so if Hunt or Jacobs goes down (or their teams get COVID, which may have already happened), things get bleak quickly. But those are the risks you need to take if you want to join the Indians with some headwear on draft weekend, so I can't fault them too much.
Grades:
AGD: B+
Gutman: C
Trade Grade 4
Kumpf receives Steelers D/ST, A.J. Green
Zacherman receives Deebo Samuel, Hunter Renfrow
I'm guessing Kumpf gave up waiting on Deebo and wanted to get out before he inevitably gets hurt again and was happy to get out for a top 10 DST. If Deebo gets hurt I think the plan makes sense. However, Z was able to package a defense and Hunter Renfrow for two FLEX level WRs (Deebo, TY) who he can be comfortable in his starting lineup. Not a season altering trade for either side but could potentially swing a game or two.
ESPN loves Kumpf's team so much that by the end of the season they will be projected for 200 points per game but I'm not sure I see it. While the COVID factor is a wash right now, I think depth will be king by mid-season (if there is a mid-season) so I give the slight edge to Zacherman.
Grades:
Kumpf: B-
Zacherman: B
Trade Grade 6
Marco receives Aaron Rodgers, Antonio Gibson, and Tee Higgins
Weissbard receives Austin Ekeler, Justin Jackson, and Stefon Diggs
Lots of trades that are contingent on other trades this week, none moreso than this one. This is a home run for Weissbard, who gets a late season RB1 if Ekeler recovers, as well as a complete lockdown of the best WR trio in the league. He was also able to get a shocking amount of value for Rodgers, which corrects his biggest draft mistake and gives him most likely the best starting lineup in the league. There is risk if Ekeler ends up missing the season, but James Robinson has done a fine job so far and certainly won't tank this team.
As for Marco, this is obviously the precursor to a second move, though one that was not agreed to in advance, which is very risky. Gibson is fine, though he may have gotten the homer boost, but the WR situation here is begging for an upgrade. I'm grading this on it's own right now, and it's not great.
Grades:
Marco: D
Weissbard: A
Trade Grade 7
Weissbard receives Chris Thompson and Hunter Renfrow
Zacherman receives TY Hilton
Yawn. Weissbard gets a pseudo-handcuff and low end Flex receiver, while Zacherman is buying as low as possible on Hilton. I can only see one of these guys mattering, but highly doubt any of them do.
Grades:
Weissbard: C
Zacherman: B-
Trade Grade 8
Gutman receives Aaron Rodgers and Devante Parker
Marco receives Carson Wentz and Keenan Allen
The other shoe finally drops. I'm grading these trades individually, but obvious this move is the culmination of several other moves that both Gut and Marco have made. On the surface, I like this the most for Marco. He had to work harder than expected because he didn't have a deal agreed to before acquiring Rodgers, and trading QBs is extremely difficult in this league, but he certainly upgraded his WR1 in this deal. Gutman finally got his QB as well, so while the value likely wasn't as high, the upgrade from Wentz to Rodgers is more than worth the downgrade from Keenan to his old friend Devante. It took a very roundabout process, but I think they both ended up where they needed to.
Grades:
Gutman: B
Marco: B-
Overall, I think most of the teams involved here are in a better position than they started. Some (Weissbard) did better than others (Barnard), but no one really tanked their season with any of these moves. And when it comes to Weissbard and AGD, we may look back at this week as when they started their march towards Chef's hats.
Or the season could be cancelled next week, in which case Billy is the real winner.
The top-heaviness of the league continued with new 30 point scorers Joe Fucking Mixon, Odell Beckham, George Kittle, Tom Brady, and something called a Robert Tonyan. This makes trades a little bit complicated, as most will include trading a stud for depth, as opposed to trying to find complementary rosters based on positions. That doesn't seem to be stifling trade talks so far, but it's something to monitor, especially if scoring calms down at some point.
Given all the trades this week, and my lack of an idea for a gimmick, I'm just going to list the rankings this week, with one exception:
Week 5 Power RankingsEsco finally gets his wish and moves up the most this week, but I'm still not sold on his squad being sustainable. Yes, he leads the league in points, but 32% of his offensive points have been from TDs. That's obviously the goal of the game, but it's also the least predictive of future success. Mike Evans isn't going to turn one of every three catches into a TD, Kamara will (probably) stop scoring twice per game, and Esco's lineup management hot streak will cool off at some point (The Will Fuller Rule). Ironically, trash-ass Ronald Jones is due for more TDs, so after this rant I expect him to light up the Bears and then Gutman will trade for him.
MotW Record: 3-1
2020 Record: 12-10-1 (+0.37 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)
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