Week 3 Recap

(Note: I wrote a lot of this before the Steelers/Titans game was postponed, so I won't really reflect that below.)

After another wild week, 2020 has been by far the most points scored through three weeks in NFL history. Not entirely surprising given the lack of preseason for defenses, along with offense-focused rules, but what has been surprising is that the points have not really been evenly distributed. In our league, Weissbard is outscoring Gutman by 30 points per game, a pretty shocking number for three weeks. And on the flip side, teams facing AGD have outscored teams facing Alan by 45 points per game, which is batshit crazy.

Some of these things (especially on the points allowed side) will even out over a longer stretch, but depth has surprisingly mattered less this year than just having studs that can win you weeks on their own. We've already seen 17 instances of a player breaking 30 in a given week, and to have a real shot at a Chef's Coat this year, you need at least one of those guys, preferably more. It's obviously more valuable to have those guys at the Flex positions, but even QBs can make a huge difference, as Russ, Dak, and Josh Fucking Allen have showed so far. This week's rankings will take a look at who's a threat to break 30 any week, and who has the potential to join the club with a strong year.

But first!

Trade Grade 1
Kumpf receives Todd Gurley and Brian Hill
Levine receives Joe Mixon and Preston Williams
Preston Williams and the Gurley handcuff aren’t huge considerations here, we really need to value Mixon vs. Gurley.

Through three games last year, Joe Mixon was averaging 7.6 points per game with two games under 6 total points. By the end of the season he had increased his average to 12.9pts per game and had two games over 25 points. He’s only missed 4 games as he enters his 4th year in the league and seems primed to be a low end RB1 for the rest of the year.

Todd Gurley has already scored four touchdowns including two receiving touchdowns on only THREE receptions. He’s only played 16 games once in his career and has seemed especially brittle in the past two years.

Which player seems like the sell-high and which player seems like the sell-low looking at those numbers? I should tank Kumpf's grade after seeing my place in the power rankings but there is a chance that the reduced workload for Gurley keeps him upright while Gio Bernard bizarrely continues to steal carries and receptions from Mixon. Not a great chance but a chance.
Grades:
Levine: A-
Kumpf: C+
I(Editors Note: I would have given Levine a B+ and myself a C+ so we're not too far off)

Trade Grade 2
Marco receives Devin Singletary and Corey Davis
Zacherman receives Chris Thompson and Terry McLaurin
This trade all comes down to the value of the RB in our league. Scary Terry is clearly the best player involved here, and assuming AJ Brown is healthy come Week 5, the trade is basically Singletary for McLaurin. Based just on that, Zacherman gets an easy win, because, despite the relative shitshow in our nation's capital, McLaurin is situation-proof. HOWEVER, there is a complete and total dearth of startable RBs in this league, and Singletary is a low-end RB2 or high-end Flex option, especially with Moss out. So based on the player value, I'd call this basically a wash. Looking at the team-specific situation, Marco upgraded from a non-existent RB2 (with Bell out) to Singletary, while losing stability at WR2 (and Flex by extension). Zacherman upgrades on AJ Green as his WR2, but his RB2 situation is heavily reliant on the Dolphins running game. This one goes to Marco, unless Moss comes back and relegates Singletary to fringe-Flex status.

Grades:
Marco: B
Zacherman: C

Week 4 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 2nd)

Week Winners: Aaron Rodgers, Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins

Potential: Kyler Murray

Weiss has the potential for a chef's hat this year, but to get there he'll need to sure up his starting lineup. That means trading one of his QBs for an upgrade at RB. If he can do that before Rodgers or Kyler gets hurt or comes back to earth, this is a clear favorite.

2. AGD (Last Week: 7th)

Week Winners: N/A

Potential: Deshaun Watson, Josh Jacobs, Tyler Lockett, Travis Kelce

Our second best team right now is the big exception to the rule of week winners, but they have enough depth that it gives them by far the highest floor in the league. They've broken 100 every week, and while 130+ might be a stretch, they'll be a factor come playoff time. My biggest concern is the lack of trade pieces, giving them minimal injury insurance or ability to upgrade.

3. Levine (Last Week: 1st)

Week Winners: Dak Prescott

Potential: Calvin Ridley
There is a non-zero chance that Thielen and Ridley will be the top WR duo in the league, and given the auction dollars Levine spent on them, everyone else should be ashamed. I am over Mixon in general, but you can't deny that he's due, and with Dak in constant shootouts and the Texans schedule easing up, I wouldn't be surprised if this team re-takes over the top spot soon.

4. Bennett (Last Week: 3rd)

Week Winners: Dalvin Cook

Potential: Cam Newton

After surviving Barnard's abysmal roster management, this team is in good shape for a playoff run. As usual with a Bennett team, I don't really like the individual players, but I can't deny that it's a well constructed team. You got a little bit lucky that Goedert's injury helps Ertz remain relevant, and Darrell Henderson will come back to earth soon, but you're not a constant Hot Potato threat which is a welcome change I'm sure.

5. Marco (Last Week: 4th) 

Week Winners: Russell Wilson

Potential: Stefon Diggs
I like a lot of this team, but there are so many question marks on a weekly basis that it's hard to imagine it will survive the playoff gauntlet as currently constructed. The biggest trade chip is obviously Russ, but QB trades in this league rarely bring back "fair" value, so it's likely worth to let it ride right now. Barring a trade, a title run may be contingent on LeVeon playing like an RB1 when he comes back, which...is not likely.

6. Zacherman (Last Week: 6th)

Week Winners: Lamar Jackson, Davante Adams

Potential: Jonathan Taylor

Trade partners back to back! This is one of the more top heavy teams in the league, with a few guys who can dominate in any given week. I like his depth a little less than the teams above him (and even less after his trade), but no one is going into a matchup with Z and guaranteeing a win. He needs someone outside of Lamar/Taylor/Adams/Terry/Andrews to become a reliable starter to really be taken seriously, which isn't out of the question, but there also isn't an obvious answer.

7. Barnard (Last Week: 8th)

Week Winners: Patrick Mahomes

Potential: Nick Chubb (if Hunt gets hurt), DK Metcalf

This is the deepest team in the league right now from top to bottom, but outside of the guys listed above, has a ton of difficult lineup decisions. A lineup like this could not be in worse hands, with Barnard consistently blinded by homerism and Madden speed ratings, which makes the whole enterprise pretty fun to watch (last night included). Earlier this week Barnard told me, "I have so much WR depth, so I just need to combine them and trade for a top RB." Welcome to FALAFEL, where every team has that same situation.

8. Gutman (Last Week: 9th)

Week Winners: Derrick Henry

Potential: Julio Jones

With the Titans/Steelers postponement, Gutman's current lineup is hilarious, but not all is lost for this team. He desperately needs the Ravens to choose a clear RB1, or have either Ingram or Dobbins get hurt, but if that happens his core is still really legit. In the interim, it might be worth looking to trade both Ravens RBs to a team who's in a better position to wait things out, or who lost Saquon Barkley and CMC at the same time.

9. Alan (Last Week: 13th)

Week Winners: Josh Allen, Aaron Jones, Michael Thomas

Potential: N/A

Similar to Z, this team is extremely top heavy. Unlike Z, I'm less sold on his QB being MVP caliber, which is the primary difference. He also has a massive hole at RB2 (a consistent theme for the rest of these teams), and while Cam Akers could end up startable, it's the McKissic show until then. It's also hilarious that Alan wasted three roster spots on low value TEs, only to see Goedert emerge as a TE1, then immediately get hurt, leaving him with the worst TE situation in the league.

10. Kumpf (Last Week: 5th)

Week Winners: Ezekiel Elliott

Potential: N/A

I have by far the most boring roster in the league. Even Zeke doesn't inspire excitement other than when he shows off his tattoo. Swapping Mixon for Gurley doesn't really move the needle in terms of me enjoying my roster, but I'm hoping that an easier schedule will at least allow me to see double digits from RB2 for the first time this year. My four year playoff run is likely coming to an end, and with a whimper at that.

11. Esco (Last Week: 10th)

Week Winners: Alvin Kamara

Potential: Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, Will Fuller

Contrary to popular opinion, there is a rhyme and reason (and stats) that back up these rankings, yet I have to admit that it's funny to see Esco below me. But on a position by position basis, we're just about even across the board other than me having a better RB2 and him having a better WR2. As previously mentioned, RBs have more value than WRs, so here we are. What Esco does have is more upside than I do, with Will Fuller leading the way as the "worst" player to appear in the list of potential week winners.

12. Ajay (Last Week: 11th)

Week Winners: N/A

Potential: George Kittle

Ajay's roster is the second most boring in the league, but has a few more holes than mine does. Seeing a TE as his only potential week winner exemplifies that, and even he's injured. Ajay's path to the playoffs includes McCaffrey staying injured, and the Saints turning to Taysom at QB so Ajay would be able to start multiple QBs each week. Bold strategy...

13. Nick (Last Week: 12th)

Week Winners: N/A

Potential: Clyde Edwards-Heeeeeelaire, Chris Godwin

Of the teams near the bottom, this is the obvious one that can make a playoff run. But that run would have to start soon. Nick has been wrecked by injuries, but on paper this is still an above average roster in the league. A.J. Brown getting an unexpected bye to rest this week, and Mostert's recovery timeline means that if Nick can beat Bennett, he's very much still alive.

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Week Winners: Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley (sorry Billy)

Potential: Rex Burkhead?

Speaking of still alive! I don't think we've ever seen a waiver pickup break 30 immediately, but that's a hell of a move by our bottom dweller. Things do look bleak, but Burrow has upside, DJ Moore is begging for positive TD regression, and CMC has to come back at some point right? Right? He'll be an underdog in every matchup the rest of the way, but last week showed that anything is possible.

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Marco

There's no an obvious MotW this week, but there are definitely implications in this one. If Marco wins, he'll rise from playoff potential to clear contender status, while AGD will be scrambling despite a solid squad. If AGD wins, they stay in the thick of it, while Marco will need to decide if it's worth trading Russ to avoid being a one man team. 

For this week, Russ could easily break 40 against Miami, but a lot of those points would go to Lockett which will be bittersweet all around. If the Texans are going to show any life this year, Watson will need to go off against the Vikings, so the QB/WR1 situation is surprisingly even given how Russ has started the year. That means this will be decided by the supporting cast, and in that situation, AGD's depth reigns supreme. Jacobs and Kelce have tough matchups, but Belfer and Reap can roll out a high floor group that Marco can't compete with unless Hollywood has a day.
Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 2-1

Gambling Corner

Bucs (-7) vs. Chargers

Vikings (+4) at Texans

Jaguars (+3) at Bengals

Bears (+3) vs. Colts

Chiefs (-7) vs. Patriots

NFL Bets

Last Week: 2-3
2020 Record: 10-8 (+0.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)