- Last year, we saw Esco make a run from the 6 seed to the Stevens Bowl
- In 2016, Levine was 9-4 with a bottom four point total (but still knocked me out of the playoffs)
- In 2015, Z was 8-5 with a bottom five point total
It's been four years since we saw such a deserving group of semi-finalists, and it's the first time in FALAFEL history that we have the top four scorers making it this far. I'm obviously biased, but this suggests that our current scoring/playoff qualification system is working to both create maximum drama/excitement while still rewarding the most deserving teams. Either that, or it's just a random year where everything worked out.
On to the previews...
Semi-Final Preview
1. Zacherman vs. 4. Levine
Quarterback
For Levine, Dak has been on a bizarre every other week run. Since Week 7, in his odd number games he's broken 20 points every time, while in his even number games he's scored between 14.2 and 14.8. This is an even number game, with a mediocre matchup so we all know what to expect. Z has Mahomes on a Thursday against a good Chargers team, but if he can complete a no-look pass in the NFL, he can get more than 15 points.
Edge: Z
Runningbacks
This is Zacherman's Achilles heel. His pile of mediocrity is likely to produce between 10-30 points, but the ceiling just isn't there. I'd probably go with White and Edwards, but Adams and Howard may have a higher floor in terms of touches. Good luck with that one. Levine needs to shine here if he has a chance. Mixon and Tevin get nice matchups, but they've been all over the place this year. And it's hard to project much of anything for AP in that offense, but the Jags did let Henry run wild last week.
Edge: Levine
Wide Receivers
Four of this season's top eight receivers will take part in this matchup, and all of them are banged up and/or facing tough defenses. If any of these guys goes off, that team will have a significant advantage, but I weirdly think they're all primed to disappoint.
Edge: Even
Tight End
Z getting Ebron as a top five tight end this year is the most maddening thing about this season.
Edge: Z
D/ST
Three good options here, as Levine gets a stout Ravens D against the potentially high-flying Bucs, and Z has to choose between the Jags feasting on the Skins or the Hawks taking on Mullens and Co. I expect high scores from all of these teams, but I lean towards Zacherman's options.
Pick: Z
Pick
Levine is my rival, and the defending champ, so I'm biased against him to begin with. That said, I'd prefer to face him if I get past Weissbard into the Stevens Bowl. I think he has a path to victory, but there are just too many things lining up nicely for Z. We're gonna have yet another first-time champ.
Pick: Z
2. Kumpf vs. 3. Weissbard
Quarterback
Deshaun has had a roller coaster season, but he seems to be locked in as of late. Cam has been a stud once again, but is coming off two of his lowest scores of the season, and may be injured. While I like getting the benefit of Cam on MNF, I can't pick between these two.
Edge: Even
Runningbacks
Zeke's season has been impressive and he faces a middle of the road defense in Indy. Gurley and Saquon think that's cute.
Big Edge: Weissbard
Wide Receivers
Weiss gets Woods facing a ravaged Eagles secondary, but Tate just lost Wentz, and the rest of his WR options are a joke. Assuming Xavien Howard is out again, Diggs is my single biggest advantage in this matchup, and I have to assume Miami has a letdown after the Miracle. Landry probably shot his load last week, but it was good to see some signs of life, and he may be the second best receiver in this matchup.
Edge: Kumpf
Tight End
This is where we find out if Kelce is matchup proof. If he balls out on Thursday, I like my chances this week. Cook gets a nice matchup, and is on a hell of a run, but he needs to be at his best to keep up.
Edge: Kumpf
D/ST
Weissbard is betting on matchups over talent in going with the Lions. I'm riding the Bears til they let me down, even against Rodgers.
Edge: Kumpf
Pick
Going position by position, it looks like I have the edge. However, Weissbard's advantage at RB is so enormous that it could swing the matchup by itself. On top of that, each of us have at least one player going in all seven game windows, starting with Kelce on Thursday, through Weiss's Rams on SNF and Cam on MNF. That's just constant stress in what should be a close matchup. I have a feeling that it comes down to Cam, and he just hasn't looked right the last few weeks. Call it a #Kurse, or call it reverse Smith-Schuster, but I think my first playoff win continues to elude me.
Pick: Weissbard
2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 16-8
Gambling Corner - Week of 12/10
NFL Bets
Chiefs (-3) vs. Chargers - Loss
Broncos (-3) vs. Browns - Loss
Lions (+3) at Bills - Win
Ravens (-7) vs. Bucs - Win
Seahawks (-4) vs. 49ers - Loss
Steelers (+3) vs. Patriots - Win
Last Week: 2-2
2018 Record: 38-28-5 (+4.51 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)
NCAA Football Bets
Celebration Bowl: North Carolina A&T (-7) vs. Alcorn State - Loss
Cure Bowl: Tulane (-3) vs. Louisiana - Win
New Mexico Bowl: Utah State (-7) vs. North Texas - Win
Las Vegas Bowl: Fresno State (-6) vs. Arizona State - Win
Camellia Bowl: Eastern Michigan (+3) vs. Georgia Southern - Win
New Orleans Bowl: Appalachian State (-7) vs. Middle Tennessee - Win
Last Week: 5-2
Bowl Record: 5-1
2018 Record: 51-51-2 (-7.14 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)
NBA Bets
Bucks (-11.5) vs. Cavs - Win
Kings (+5) vs. T-Wolves - Win
Clippers (+4) at Spurs - Loss
Pacers (+6) at 76ers - Win
Nets (-1.5) vs. Wizards - Win
Blazers (+5.5) vs. Raptors - Win
Hornets (+3.5) vs. Lakers - Loss
Nets (-6) vs. Hawks - Win
Kings (+7) at Mavericks - Win
Last Week: 6-5
2018-19 Record: 41-34 (-0.97 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)
NCAA Basketball Bets
Houston (-3.5) vs. LSU - Win
Oregon (-6.5) vs. San Diego - Win
Syracuse (-8.5) vs. Old Dominion - Loss
Kansas (-6.5) vs. Villanova - Loss
Purdue (-5.5) vs. Notre Dame (Neutral Site) - Loss
Penn State (+5.5) vs. NC State - Loss
Washington (+9) vs. Virginia Tech - Loss
Oklahoma (-9) vs. USC - Win
Arizona (-6.5) vs. Baylor - Loss
St. Mary's (+4.5) vs. LSU (Neutral Site) - Win
Houston (-7) vs. Saint Louis - Loss
Oklahoma State (+7.5) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Last Week: 11-8-1
2018-19 Record: 29-23-2 (+0.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)
EPL Bets (Spread)
Burnley (+2) at Tottenham - Win
Crystal Palace (Pick) vs. Leicester City - Win
Last Week: 4-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 24-19-6 (+0.49 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)
EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Last Week: 3-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 9-10 (+1.30 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)
Champions League (Spread)
Liverpool (-1) vs. Napoli - Win
Inter Milan (-1.5) vs. PSV - Loss
Monaco (+0.5) vs. Dortmund - Loss
Roma (Pick) at Viktoria Plzen - Loss
Valencia (Pick) vs. Manchester United - Win
Shahktar (Pick) vs. Lyon - Push
Last Week: 3-2
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-12-4 (+1.47 units)
Champions League (Moneyline)
Schalke 04 (+105) vs. Lokomotiv - Win
Bayern Munich (+100) at Ajax - Loss
Last Week 2-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 6-8 (-4.06 units)
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