Stevens Bowl Preview

Not gonna lie, that one hurt. After getting the benefit of Saquon's first real dud of the season and getting a big day from my Mack attack, all I needed was a 25th percentile performance from Cam to win my first playoff game and make the Stevens Bowl. Instead I got a 5th percentile performance, and I wasted likely the best team I'll have in the next decade.

Things were even worse for Zacherman, who had the most electric QB/WR combination since Brady and Moss in 2007, and still couldn't make the Stevens Bowl.

This leaves us Weissbard vs. Levine.

Weissbard is trying to complete the classic worst-to-first storyline in the vein of the 2018 Bears, 2017 Jaguars, and 2001 Rams. Some of those teams fell short, but they were all feel-good stories in the moment.

Levine is the Patriots personified. Starting the year below the radar, he slowly but surely made his way into the playoffs, and is poised to be our first repeat champion. If he wins again, we may need to add an apostrophe to our title game and start calling it Steven's Bowl.

While Zacherman and I may go down as the two best teams to not even make the finals, we still have two very worthy contenders facing off through Christmas Eve.

Weissbard! Levine! Saquon! Dakota! It's The Stevens Bowl!

(Note that while we are certainly not the tallest league as a whole, this is the first time where the annual Stevens Bowl Elf Yourself video isn't as funny as it should be. Z and I would have been waaaay more enjoyable and you all know it. I swear I'm not bitter.)

Stevens Bowl Preview

3. Weissbard vs. 4. Levine

Quarterback
The Dak roller coaster is due for a peak based on its every other week pace for the last couple months. On cue, he gets to face a terrible Tampa defense, at home, with a lot to prove. I see a big day coming for the Cowboys in general, so the only question is whether Dak or Zeke benefits more. That question doesn't exist for DeShaun, who is the engine that is driving Houston towards a potential bye. The Eagles D has been terrible all year, and while they had a resurgence last week, they still let up a ton of points. Both of these guys are easy top ten plays this week, but it's too close to call for me.
Edge: Even

Runningbacks
Weissbard's dynamic duo get some pretty easy matchups, which as always will be the primary focus of his week. Levine has a much more complicated situation. Mixon and Coleman led him to the Stevens Bowl, but McGuire and Jamaal are above average plays this week too. If Levine's three guys can outscore Weissbard's two, this should be a wrap. I don't think it comes to that, but this isn't as much in Weissbard's favor as it usually is.
Slight Edge: Weissbard

Wide Receivers
This is weirdly a mirror image of the RB situation. Levine has the studs this time, but Weissbard's depth and flex option could make it interesting. The major wild card here is if Aaron Rodgers isn't himself, which would pretty much tank Levine's chances.
Slight Edge: Levine

Tight End
Vance McDonald was a huge part of getting Levine to the Stevens Bowl. I don't think history repeats itself, and I really like Cook's matchup.
Edge: Weissbard

D/ST
Weissbard has a clear matchup advantage here, with a solid Cowboys D getting a turnover-prone Bucs team at home. Levine has the more talented option in Baltimore, but they travel to LA to play an explosive Chargers offense. He also has the Eagles as a potential Deshaun counterpoint as an option. Whoever he goes with will have a lower ceiling than Dallas.
Edge: Weissbard

Pick
This is super close, and should make for an entertaining Stevens Bowl. The only "clear" advantages are both to Weissbard, but also are at the fickle positions of tight end and defense. I have a weird feeling that the Rams will continue to struggle against Arizona, enough to crack the door open for Levine, but if Rodgers is limited and Adams is not effective, I can't confidently pick my rival. When it's this close, I'll go with Gurley, Barkley, and the immortal Jared Cook getting last licks.
Pick: Weissbard

2018 Biggest Matchup Record: 17-9

Gambling Corner - Week of 12/17

NFL Bets
Bengals (+9) at Browns - Win
Jaguars (+5) at Dolphins - Win
Bears (-4) at 49ers - Win
Saints (-6) vs. Steelers - Loss
Broncos (-2) at Raiders - Loss
Last Week: 3-3
2018 Record: 41-30-5 (+4.96 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.78% (+19.01 units)

NCAA Football Bets
Boca Raton Bowl - Northern Illinois (+3) vs. UAB - Loss
Frisco Bowl - Ohio (-3) vs. San Diego State - Win
Gasparilla Bowl - South Florida (+4) vs. Marshall - Loss
Bahamas Bowl - Toledo (+0.5) vs. Florida International - Loss
Potato Bowl - Western Michigan (+12) vs. BYU - Loss
Birmingham Bowl - Memphis (-3) vs. Wake Forest - Loss
Armed Forces Bowl - Houston (+5) vs. Army - Loss
Dollar General Bowl - Troy (+1) vs. Buffalo - Win
Hawaii Bowl - Louisiana Tech (+1) vs. Hawaii - Win
Quick Lane Bowl - Minnesota (+6) vs. Georgia Tech - Win
Cheez-It Bowl - TCU (+1) vs. California - Win
Last Week: 5-1
Bowl Record: 10-7
2018 Record: 56-57-2 (-8.70 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.31% (-16.52 units)

NBA Bets
Thunder (-12.5) vs. Bulls - Win
76ers (+3) at Spurs - Loss
Blazers (+3) at Clippers - Win
Pacers (-12) vs. Cavs - Loss
Celtics (-12) vs. Suns - Loss
Jazz (+4) vs. Warriors - Win
Last Week: 7-2
2018-19 Record: 44-37 (-1.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.4% (-24.36 units)

NCAA Basketball Bets
Vanderbilt (+3) vs. Arizona State - Win
Missouri (+4.5) vs. Xavier - Win
NC State (+3) vs. Auburn - Loss
UCLA (+9) at Cincinnati - Win
Texas Tech (+10.5) vs. Duke (Neutral Site) - Loss
Houston (-4) vs. Utah State - Win
Last Week: 4-8
2018-19 Record: 33-25-2 (+1.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.07% (-8.02 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)
Burnley (+2) at Arsenal - Push
West Ham (Pick) vs. Watford - Loss
Huddersfield (Pick) vs. Southampton - Loss
Last Week: 2-0
2018-19 Spread Record: 24-21-7 (+1.51 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Spurs (+125) at Everton - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 10-10 (+2.55 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)

Champions League (Spread)

Last Week: 2-3-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 18-12-4 (+1.47 units)

Champions League (Moneyline)

Last Week: 1-1
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 6-8 (-4.06 units)