Now that the contenders have been separated from the pretenders, it's time to look at the matchups that will determine who gets the Chef's Coat, asterisk or otherwise. It's been a couple of years, but I'm returning to the tried and true Dr. Z breakdown format.
3. Levine vs. 6. Kumpf
Quarterbacks
Levine's trade for Mariota went relatively under the radar, but went a long way toward keeping him out of the vulnerable 6th seed. He's also coming off an absurdly late bye, giving him two weeks to prepare for his opponent. Unfortunately, said opponent is the Broncos, who eat opposing QBs for breakfast. On my side, I heavily debated starting Eli in primetime instead of Carr on the road on a short week. But as the Giants fans in this league can attest, having Eli crush your dreams is a tough way to go out. If Mariota breaks 12 against Denver, Levine should be pleased.
Edge: Kumpf
Runningbacks
Bell is he clear stud here, and his performance in Buffalo will go a long towards determining the outcome of this matchup. The rest of the RBs will be interesting as my guys have better matchups and bigger roles, but Dion Lewis looms as the X-Factor. If Belichick game plans Lewis as his Gronk replacement, I could easily see a 4 rushing yard, 122 receiving yard performance. I'll hedge with the slight edge pick.
Slight Edge: Levine
Wide Receivers
Another position where the New England game plan may sway the matchup. Malcolm Mitchell has looked good the last three weeks, and he could easily have a big day if Bill so chooses. The rest of the guys are a little bit more predictable, but injuries will play a role here. Julio is dealing with turf toe, and while I'm starting him if he's playing, a goose egg in the playoffs would be pretty fitting karma-wise. On the Levine side, Michael Thomas is banged up, which could mean good things for Cooks. Hard to pick a clear winner here.
Edge: Even
Tight End
Yes, the Jets just allowed Dwayne Allen to go wild against them. But Vance McDonald sounds like a magician who performs in Vegas. I also have Delanie catching passes from Mariota, against a Denver D that is way worse against TEs than WRs.
Edge: Kumpf
Defense/Special Teams
Not a lot of great streaming options for me this week, so I'm rolling out the Pats for the fourth straight week against a Ravens team that put up 38 last week. Levine has a rejuvenated Cincy team against the Browns.
Big Edge: Levine
Overall
This one will likely be decided early. If KC shuts down Oakland tonight, and I end up with less than 25 from Carr and Amari, I think Bell and Co. will carry Levine to an easy victory. If I get close to 40? I think I'm in good shape. This will be close either way, but I think Levine's MNF guys and Julio's injury will end up dooming me.
Winner: Levine
4. Zacherman vs. 5. Gutman
Note: Gutman has intermittent access to his lineup. He made the moves to pickup and start Detroit's D, and is voluntarily choosing to start Ted Ginn Jr. over Diggs. If Ingram doesn't play, I'll be subbing in Hightower, but otherwise these decisions are his.
Quarterbacks
Brady vs. Rivers is a heavyweight showdown. It's really hard to pick against Brady in primetime, but going up against a pretty good Baltimore D, and without Gronk, leaves the door open here. Rivers gets a Panthers D that got lit the fuck up last week. I think they play better this week, but Rivers gonna get his.
Slight Edge: Gutman
Runningbacks
DeMarco Murray should be able to do at least some damage against Denver (the Tenn/Den game has a weirdly large impact on these matchups), but Terrance West is slowly getting phased out of Baltimore's already terrible running game. Whoever starts for New Orleans has a 20-point ceiling, which is always nice, and David Johnson has pretty much a 20-point floor. This one should be pretty one-sided.
Big Edge: Gutman
Wide Receivers
Jordy gets a Seattle pass defense sans Earl Thomas, which opens up the deep ball more than usual. Combine that with boom/bust Mike Wallace and sneaky great pickup Sammy Watkins, and Z could get 50 from his WRs. He'll probably need it this week, even if I don't love Gut's receivers. Thomas and Hilton should average about 10 each, but I can't say I ever recommend putting your season in Ted Ginn's shaky hands.
Edge: Zacherman
Tight End
If things don't work out for Z this season, he'll look back and say what if? What if he didn't trade Dez for Arian Foster? What if he didn't blow Week 1 with terrible roster management and get a bye? But the biggest what if is What if Gronk was healthy? Alas, he's not, leaving us with Jared Cook vs. Make Cameron Brate Again. Z still gets the nod here, but it's not as big of an edge as it would have been.
Edge: Zacherman
Defense/Special Teams
Gutman is banking that even a bottom-rung defense can put up points against Matt Barkley. Not a terrible bet to make, but also leaves him somewhat vulnerable for a goose egg. Zacherman has the uncomfortable situation of his defense facing one of his offensive weapons. I don't think this position has a huge effect on the outcome here, but I'll go with the team playing at home against Barkley.
Slight Edge: Gutman
Overall
I've been a fan of Z's team since preseason. Even after his ill-fated Arian trade, I thought his ceiling was among the highest in the league. But the Gronk injury is one step too far, and I think his road ends here. Gutman has better matchups, and with a win would get Alshon back for the semi-finals against Alan. Bless the rains.
Winner: Gutman
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