Friday, December 16, 2016

Playoff Preview - Semi-finals

Last week I said that Levine had a slight edge over me at the runningback position thanks to Leveon Bell. Prior to the Pats D playing on MNF, Leveon had a slight edge on my entire team. So that went well. The average margin of victory in the first round was over 40 points, so hopefully the semi-finals are a little bit closer. There's a Stevens Bowl bid on the line for fuck's sake. On to the breakdown...

1. Alan vs. 5. Zacherman

Quarterbacks
These teams have two of the top QBs in the league, but are going up against two of the best pass defenses in the league, both on the road. Luck is also a bit banged up and has a terrible offensive line, so the odds of him making it through the game are considerably less than 100%. I hate picking Brady, but if the Pats win, it moves them closer to home field advantage and moves Denver closer to missing the playoffs. Hard to bet against him there.
Edge: Zacherman

Runningbacks
Alan has had a pretty well-rounded team this year, but if he wins his second title, it will be on the back of Shady McCoy. He has the potential to put up 30+ this week, and leads the way here. Murray has had a solid season as well, but Derrick Henry is starting to steal some carries, and the matchup isn't as juicy as Shady's. The wild card is Kenneth Farrow. He may sound like an accountant, but he could swing this matchup if Gordon is officially out. If Gordon does play, Alan's flex is a clear weakness, but it doesn't sound good for Melvin right now.
Big Edge: Alan

Wide Receivers
This is where Z needs to make up his ground. Allen Robinson and Michael Crabtree have been fine, but have relatively low ceilings. If the cards break correctly, Z's trio could all have huge days. If Sammy catches a long TD, that could mean one less drive for Shady, and more carries for Gillislee in a blowout, so that could be hugely important. Against Cleveland, anything can happen.
Edge: Zacherman

Tight Ends
Cameron Brate has had a very solid season, but he's been extremely TD-dependent. Against Dallas that might not be a bad thing, but still he's no Greg Olsen.
Edge: Alan

Defense/Special Teams
Zacherman's weird loyalty to Carolina's defense has been baffling at times, but it paid off last week. This week they're going up against a top offense in Washington, so I still don't really understand his logic. Alan is rocking the Fins D against Bryce Petty and the Jets, making this our most one-sided positional matchup.
Big Edge: Alan

Overall
There is no one area where Z has a big edge, but he showed last week that his high ceiling can carry him. That said, Alan has probably the highest floor in the league and is unlikely to put up less than 75. I've been on the Z train since the draft, but it's hard to go against the Masandiassance.
Winner: Alan


2. BAM vs. 3 Levine

Quarterbacks
We are gonna see some points put up here. BAM has been riding Matty Ice all season, and gets a juicy matchup with the Niners who are tanking hard. Levine has Mariota looking for a bounceback against a Chiefs D that has been a little bipolar this year. Ryan's clearly the stud here, but if it turns into a blowout early, I could see him sitting out the second half. Mariota will need to play hard the entire game, and his legs could be the difference here. I expect 20+ from each of these guys, but I think Levine has a better chance of coming out on top.
Slight Edge: Levine

Runningbacks
Another amazing matchup here in Zeke vs. Bell. Impossible to pick between those two, so this position will be decided elsewhere. Jordan Howard has been an undercover reason why BAM is here right now, and he has Spencer Ware waiting the in the flex. Levine is starting Dion Lewis, who has scored 16.4 points on the season. I hate to pick against Leveon after he murdered me last week, but this shouldn't be close.
Big Edge: BAM

Wide Receivers
BAM has ODB against one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Even with Levine rolling out three solid WRs, I might pick Beckham over the three of them combined. Having Dontrelle Inman as a sneaky-solid WR2, gives BAM the edge here too.
Edge: BAM

Tight Ends
C.J. Fiedorowicz against the Jags and Charles Clay against the Browns. Moving on...
Edge: Even

Defense/Special Teams
Levine continues his streaming against the Browns with Buffalo, while BAM does some streaming of his own against the Niners. With Rex clinging desperately to his job, I expect a ton of blitzing leading to sacks and turnovers. Higher ceiling than a mediocre Atlanta D.
Edge: Levine

Overall
I continue to have no idea how Levine made it this far, but he's had an absurd run of luck in terms of matchups (even if he didn't need it like last week). That ends this week, with BAM looking to make their first Stevens Bowl as a duo.
Winner: BAM

Regular Season Record: 2-9
Playoff Record: 1-1
Overall Record: 3-10

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