Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Trade Analysis 5

Kumpf Gets:
Matthew Stafford QB DET
Ray Rice RB BAL
Reggie Bush RB DET
Mike Tolbert RB CAR
Santana Moss WR WAS
Hakeem Nicks WR NYG
Jordan Reed TE WAS
Coby Fleener TE IND

Ajay Gets:
Jimmy Graham TE NO
Montee Ball RB DEN

Nick Gets:
Chris Johnson RB TEN
Pierre Garcon WR WAS
Jay Cutler QB CHI

Donny Gets:
Matt Ryan QB ATL
Lamar Miller RB MIA
Daniel Thomas RB MIA

#HotSportsTake: Wow guess when your team is on a three game losing streak and is in danger of missing the playoffs its time to make some serious changes. The only players of note left on Kumpf’s team are Victor Cruz and Cecil Shorts. This is a Florida Marlins style house cleaning … Who could have expected this?
                                                                             
Most Valuable Addition: This is a tough call between Jimmy Graham and Reggie Bush. Both have had their injury concerns in past seasons and have already been hampered for parts of this season. Reggie is more likely to get injured over the course of the year but Jimmy has an ankle injury that is likely to continue to bother him slightly for the length of the year. Because Graham has handled this injury well for several weeks already and he’s averaging 2.4 more points per game than Bush I’m going to say Graham is the best player involved here but maybe I’m biased because I’m hoping Bush gets nicked up again so I can have a great starter in Joique Bell once more.

Potential Starters Gained:
Considering Kumpf basically remade his entire time I’m not going to spend too much time on him here but suffice to say he has a lot of new starters for Week 11.

Ajay gets a massive upgrade at TE with Graham but without Bush his Flex/RB2 options are Rashad Jennings, Trent Richardson, and Dwayne Bowe… gross

Nick gives up most of his disappointing haul from his Zacherman trade for a big upgrade at WR with Garcon and a minor upgrade at RB/Flex with the Chris Johnson/Ray Rice exchange. Jordan Reed is gone now but hopefully this will just clear up your Flex player decisions from now on.

Ajay Trade Grade: The combined value of Bush/Fleener is higher than Graham/Ball because Montee has negligible value as the 3rd RB in Denver but I still like this trade for Ajay. Fleener is at best a low TE1 and his value may continue to decrease if this Colts offense continues its downward trend without Reggie Wayne. Reggie Bush has already burned you once this year by missing a game due to injury and he comes out of games with minor nicks more than almost any other RB1 I know. The big concern here is what the hell is your Flex strategy going to be going forward. I guess you can hope Trent Richardson or Dwayne Bowe get their shit together but the odds of that at this point are pretty low. However, I don’t really mind being forced to scrounge for a flex player when you now have Jimmy on your team.
Trade Grade: B+

Nick Trade Grade: You called me out for not loving your last trade but I think it’s pretty clear who was right about that. However, since you were the only one successful in picking a terrible division, you somehow still have a really good chance of making the playoffs. I actually really like this trade. I hate the idea of starting Hakeem Nicks or Ray Rice at this point in the season and Jordan Reed was just sitting there as trade bait now that Gronk is full strength. At the worst CJ2K will be the same as Ray Rice so you only have upside there even if it is minimal and the upgrade to Garcon from Nicks is massive. With Bell and Andre Brown at full health the lineup you can throw out there for the next few weeks is pretty intimidating. With Gutman, Ajay and Barnard left on your schedule I see a very good chance for three straight wins and potentially a playoff spot. Trade Grade: A

Donny Trade Grade: Donny, Donny, Donny. I really hated this trade when I first saw it and while my opinion has softened slightly this trade still concerns me.  There is no doubt that Stafford is a better fantasy QB than Matt Ryan right now and even if Roddy White comes back strong from his injury he is still no Calvin Johnson. Of the four other players moved in this deal (Tolbert/Santana/Lamar Miller/Daniel Thomas) none are thrilling but I like Tolbert the best because at least he consistently gets into the end zone and in the panthers games I have watched he has shown surprising burst for such massive man. Not only are the Dolphins in the middle of a shit storm that won’t be letting up any time soon but the two players involved were both starting O-linemen! Tannehill was getting killed on Monday night and the Dolphins averaged 5.1 INCHES per rush against Tampa Bay. Yes, inches.
Trade Grade: C-

Kumpf Trade Grade: This has to be the most turnover any FALAFEL team has experienced in a single week, but with your team barely clinging onto a playoff berth this is the perfect time for such a move. I think it’s easiest to understand if we look at your before and after projected lineups.
QB: Matt Ryan à Matt Stafford
RB1: Chris Johnson à Reggie Bush
RB2: Lamar Miller à Ray Rice
WR1: Victor Cruz à Victor Cruz
WR2: Pierre Garcon à Cecil Shorts/Golden Tate/Hakeem Nicks
Flex: Cecil Shorts à Cecil Shorts/Golden Tate/Jordan Reed
TE: Jimmy Graham à Jordan Reed/Coby Fleener

Victor Cruz must be looking around wondering what the hell happened. Right away you can see huge upgrades at QB and RB and a big drop off at TE and a smaller one at WR2. Personally I would probably start Jordan Reed at flex and try Golden Tate this weekend before Percy Harvin gets back to full strength then ride Cecil Shorts for the rest of the season unless Mike Tolbert somehow takes over more carries in the Carolina backfield. I think overall I like your team more now than I did before, even though Jimmy is one of the few players in the league who can single-handedly swing a fantasy week. Plus who wouldn’t get excited about the future of a team that is completely different than it was just 24 hours ago?

Trade Grade: A-

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