Podcast 2017.01 - Masandiassance Victory Lap

Podcast 2016.10 - Stevens Bowl Preview

The Stevens Bowl is too big of an event for a standard Dr. Z breakdown, so I'm coming in hot with a full multimedia experience. Before we get to the podcast, as is tradition...

ALAN! BILLY! MAYBE MARSHALL! IT'S THE STEVENS BOWL!

Now on to the podcast, where I make my Stevens Bowl prediction:



Zacherman and Levine also face off in the Rogers Bowl, which gives the winner a small cash prize but not much else. I won't give them the full breakdown, but I will pick Zacherman in a close one.

Regular Season Record: 2-9
Playoff Record: 3-1
Overall Record: 5-10

Playoff Preview - Semi-finals

Last week I said that Levine had a slight edge over me at the runningback position thanks to Leveon Bell. Prior to the Pats D playing on MNF, Leveon had a slight edge on my entire team. So that went well. The average margin of victory in the first round was over 40 points, so hopefully the semi-finals are a little bit closer. There's a Stevens Bowl bid on the line for fuck's sake. On to the breakdown...

1. Alan vs. 5. Zacherman

Quarterbacks
These teams have two of the top QBs in the league, but are going up against two of the best pass defenses in the league, both on the road. Luck is also a bit banged up and has a terrible offensive line, so the odds of him making it through the game are considerably less than 100%. I hate picking Brady, but if the Pats win, it moves them closer to home field advantage and moves Denver closer to missing the playoffs. Hard to bet against him there.
Edge: Zacherman

Runningbacks
Alan has had a pretty well-rounded team this year, but if he wins his second title, it will be on the back of Shady McCoy. He has the potential to put up 30+ this week, and leads the way here. Murray has had a solid season as well, but Derrick Henry is starting to steal some carries, and the matchup isn't as juicy as Shady's. The wild card is Kenneth Farrow. He may sound like an accountant, but he could swing this matchup if Gordon is officially out. If Gordon does play, Alan's flex is a clear weakness, but it doesn't sound good for Melvin right now.
Big Edge: Alan

Wide Receivers
This is where Z needs to make up his ground. Allen Robinson and Michael Crabtree have been fine, but have relatively low ceilings. If the cards break correctly, Z's trio could all have huge days. If Sammy catches a long TD, that could mean one less drive for Shady, and more carries for Gillislee in a blowout, so that could be hugely important. Against Cleveland, anything can happen.
Edge: Zacherman

Tight Ends
Cameron Brate has had a very solid season, but he's been extremely TD-dependent. Against Dallas that might not be a bad thing, but still he's no Greg Olsen.
Edge: Alan

Defense/Special Teams
Zacherman's weird loyalty to Carolina's defense has been baffling at times, but it paid off last week. This week they're going up against a top offense in Washington, so I still don't really understand his logic. Alan is rocking the Fins D against Bryce Petty and the Jets, making this our most one-sided positional matchup.
Big Edge: Alan

Overall
There is no one area where Z has a big edge, but he showed last week that his high ceiling can carry him. That said, Alan has probably the highest floor in the league and is unlikely to put up less than 75. I've been on the Z train since the draft, but it's hard to go against the Masandiassance.
Winner: Alan


2. BAM vs. 3 Levine

Quarterbacks
We are gonna see some points put up here. BAM has been riding Matty Ice all season, and gets a juicy matchup with the Niners who are tanking hard. Levine has Mariota looking for a bounceback against a Chiefs D that has been a little bipolar this year. Ryan's clearly the stud here, but if it turns into a blowout early, I could see him sitting out the second half. Mariota will need to play hard the entire game, and his legs could be the difference here. I expect 20+ from each of these guys, but I think Levine has a better chance of coming out on top.
Slight Edge: Levine

Runningbacks
Another amazing matchup here in Zeke vs. Bell. Impossible to pick between those two, so this position will be decided elsewhere. Jordan Howard has been an undercover reason why BAM is here right now, and he has Spencer Ware waiting the in the flex. Levine is starting Dion Lewis, who has scored 16.4 points on the season. I hate to pick against Leveon after he murdered me last week, but this shouldn't be close.
Big Edge: BAM

Wide Receivers
BAM has ODB against one of the worst passing defenses in the league. Even with Levine rolling out three solid WRs, I might pick Beckham over the three of them combined. Having Dontrelle Inman as a sneaky-solid WR2, gives BAM the edge here too.
Edge: BAM

Tight Ends
C.J. Fiedorowicz against the Jags and Charles Clay against the Browns. Moving on...
Edge: Even

Defense/Special Teams
Levine continues his streaming against the Browns with Buffalo, while BAM does some streaming of his own against the Niners. With Rex clinging desperately to his job, I expect a ton of blitzing leading to sacks and turnovers. Higher ceiling than a mediocre Atlanta D.
Edge: Levine

Overall
I continue to have no idea how Levine made it this far, but he's had an absurd run of luck in terms of matchups (even if he didn't need it like last week). That ends this week, with BAM looking to make their first Stevens Bowl as a duo.
Winner: BAM

Regular Season Record: 2-9
Playoff Record: 1-1
Overall Record: 3-10

Playoff Preview - First Round

Now that the contenders have been separated from the pretenders, it's time to look at the matchups that will determine who gets the Chef's Coat, asterisk or otherwise. It's been a couple of years, but I'm returning to the tried and true Dr. Z breakdown format.


3. Levine vs. 6. Kumpf

Quarterbacks
Levine's trade for Mariota went relatively under the radar, but went a long way toward keeping him out of the vulnerable 6th seed. He's also coming off an absurdly late bye, giving him two weeks to prepare for his opponent. Unfortunately, said opponent is the Broncos, who eat opposing QBs for breakfast. On my side, I heavily debated starting Eli in primetime instead of Carr on the road on a short week. But as the Giants fans in this league can attest, having Eli crush your dreams is a tough way to go out. If Mariota breaks 12 against Denver, Levine should be pleased.
Edge: Kumpf

Runningbacks
Bell is he clear stud here, and his performance in Buffalo will go a long towards determining the outcome of this matchup. The rest of the RBs will be interesting as my guys have better matchups and bigger roles, but Dion Lewis looms as the X-Factor. If Belichick game plans Lewis as his Gronk replacement, I could easily see a 4 rushing yard, 122 receiving yard performance. I'll hedge with the slight edge pick.
Slight Edge: Levine

Wide Receivers
Another position where the New England game plan may sway the matchup. Malcolm Mitchell has looked good the last three weeks, and he could easily have a big day if Bill so chooses. The rest of the guys are a little bit more predictable, but injuries will play a role here. Julio is dealing with turf toe, and while I'm starting him if he's playing, a goose egg in the playoffs would be pretty fitting karma-wise. On the Levine side, Michael Thomas is banged up, which could mean good things for Cooks. Hard to pick a clear winner here.
Edge: Even

Tight End
Yes, the Jets just allowed Dwayne Allen to go wild against them. But Vance McDonald sounds like a magician who performs in Vegas. I also have Delanie catching passes from Mariota, against a Denver D that is way worse against TEs than WRs.
Edge: Kumpf

Defense/Special  Teams
Not a lot of great streaming options for me this week, so I'm rolling out the Pats for the fourth straight week against a Ravens team that put up 38 last week. Levine has a rejuvenated Cincy team against the Browns.
Big Edge: Levine

Overall
This one will likely be decided early. If KC shuts down Oakland tonight, and I end up with less than 25 from Carr and Amari, I think Bell and Co. will carry Levine to an easy victory. If I get close to 40? I think I'm in good shape. This will be close either way, but I think Levine's MNF guys and Julio's injury will end up dooming me.
Winner: Levine


4. Zacherman vs. 5. Gutman
Note: Gutman has intermittent access to his lineup. He made the moves to pickup and start Detroit's D, and is voluntarily choosing to start Ted Ginn Jr. over Diggs. If Ingram doesn't play, I'll be subbing in Hightower, but otherwise these decisions are his.

Quarterbacks
Brady vs. Rivers is a heavyweight showdown. It's really hard to pick against Brady in primetime, but going up against a pretty good Baltimore D, and without Gronk, leaves the door open here. Rivers gets a Panthers D that got lit the fuck up last week. I think they play better this week, but Rivers gonna get his.
Slight Edge: Gutman

Runningbacks
DeMarco Murray should be able to do at least some damage against Denver (the Tenn/Den game has a weirdly large impact on these matchups), but Terrance West is slowly getting phased out of Baltimore's already terrible running game. Whoever starts for New Orleans has a 20-point ceiling, which is always nice, and David Johnson has pretty much a 20-point floor. This one should be pretty one-sided.
Big Edge: Gutman

Wide Receivers
Jordy gets a Seattle pass defense sans Earl Thomas, which opens up the deep ball more than usual. Combine that with boom/bust Mike Wallace and sneaky great pickup Sammy Watkins, and Z could get 50 from his WRs. He'll probably need it this week, even if I don't love Gut's receivers. Thomas and Hilton should average about 10 each, but I can't say I ever recommend putting your season in Ted Ginn's shaky hands.
Edge: Zacherman

Tight End
If things don't work out for Z this season, he'll look back and say what if? What if he didn't trade Dez for Arian Foster? What if he didn't blow Week 1 with terrible roster management and get a bye? But the biggest what if is What if Gronk was healthy? Alas, he's not, leaving us with Jared Cook vs. Make Cameron Brate Again. Z still gets the nod here, but it's not as big of an edge as it would have been.
Edge: Zacherman

Defense/Special Teams
Gutman is banking that even a bottom-rung defense can put up points against Matt Barkley. Not a terrible bet to make, but also leaves him somewhat vulnerable for a goose egg. Zacherman has the uncomfortable situation of his defense facing one of his offensive weapons. I don't think this position has a huge effect on the outcome here, but I'll go with the team playing at home against Barkley.
Slight Edge: Gutman

Overall
I've been a fan of Z's team since preseason. Even after his ill-fated Arian trade, I thought his ceiling was among the highest in the league. But the Gronk injury is one step too far, and I think his road ends here. Gutman has better matchups, and with a win would get Alshon back for the semi-finals against Alan. Bless the rains.
Winner: Gutman

Playoff Picture

As many of us descend upon our nation's capital this weekend, one thing is on everyone's mind: Playoffs. Rather than break down playoff odds, or try to project what will happen in the future, here is a breakdown of each team's situation heading into Week 13. The order is what would happen if the playoffs started today, including NiJo and Division rules.

Team-by-Team Playoff Picture

Technically no team is officially eliminated because of the NiJo Rule, but for these purposes I'm going to assume that no team can make up more than 50 points in a given week.

14. Bruno - Eliminated from Playoff Contention. It was one thing to miss the draft and fall prey to an unfortunate ESPN auto-drafting strategy. It was another to get repeatedly trade raped by others in the league without so much as consulting current or former league members on said trades. But not starting Devonta Freeman over Cameron Artis-Payne and throwing Barnard a life raft is unforgiveable. The asterisk now applies to Gutman, myself and Barnard.

13. Esco -  Eliminated from Playoff Contention. Don't look now, but Esco has missed the playoffs three years in a row, and will finish with 9+ losses in two of them. This dry spell came on the heels of back-to-back Stevens Bowl appearances, and one Chef's Coat, but a once-proud franchise is now in a state of disarray.

12. AGD - Eliminated from Playoff Contention. Speaking of once-proud franchises, AGD came of back-to-back Stevens Bowl appearances themselves, and will now fall just about as far as you can. Prior to the season AGD mentioned the possibility of splitting up if they had another deep playoff run. Obviously that didn't happen, but maybe the stress of a potential 10-loss season will have the same effect. #TroubleInParadise?

11. Weissbard - Eliminated from Playoff Contention. It was fun while it lasted. After a mediocre-at-best draft, followed immediately by a string of injuries, Weiss made a nice go of it to stay relevant until Thanksgiving. Earlier in the season it looked like he was headed towards the Long Line, but he managed to avoid that and then organize the First Annual FALAFEL Secret Santa. Things are looking up for Weiss.

10. Ajay - NiJo Rule Eligible. He can't make it in based on his record, but this is the first team that can potentially make up 50 points on 3rd place in scoring. All Ajay needs to care about is putting up as many points as possible and then rooting against pretty much everyone else, namely me, BAM, Gutman, Bennett, and Marco. So you're telling him there's a chance?

9. Marco - Still alive. From a record perspective, Marco needs to beat Levine and then hope for the best. He needs to root for Esco and Bennett, and also make up points on Zacherman, Gutman and whoever loses the Kumpf/Barnard bloodbath. From a NiJo perspective, Marco is in pretty much the same situation as Ajay, but with 5 less points to make up. The Division Champion path is still a possibility as well, but that would involve Marco winning, Barnard losing, and the NiJo rule not being enacted. Marco's done an underrated job of recovering from a slow start, and trade raped the shit out of Z to get Dez, so we should all be thankful for his presence in the league. As we've seen, it could be a lot worse.

8. Bennett - Still alive. A huge Week 12 puts the BMO within shouting distance of a playoff spot, with multiple paths towards the postseason. From a record perspective, it's similar to Marco. Bennett needs to beat Gutman and root for Esco, as well as make up points on Zacherman, Gutman, Kumpf/Barnard. Bennett also has an 18 point lead on Marco, so he's in better position to be in play from a NiJo perspective, especially given his team's propensity for boom/bust weeks. No division title is in play, but I think Bennett will be relevant throughout most of Sunday.

7. Gutman - Likely controls his own destiny. An 8-5 team has never missed the playoffs, but given the weirdness of this year and our convoluted playoff rules, Gutman could potentially be the first (so could Barnard, me and Z). If Gutman beats Bennett, he's likely in play for a top 3 scoring team, which would protect him. However, if he is not top 3 in scoring and ends up in 6th, he would be vulnerable to both NiJo rule from a handful of teams, as well as the Division Champ rule from Barnard or Marco. Gutman really just needs to root for himself to win and put up points, but he should also root against me, as Barnard beating me and/or me falling out of top 3 in scoring would both be beneficial for him.

6. Barnard - Likely controls his own destiny. Barnard is in a similar position to Gutman. If he wins, he clinches his division and can only miss the playoffs by virtue of the NiJo Rule. The most likely candidate for that would be me, but if Barnard beats me, there's a good chance that I'm no longer top three in scoring. Bennett is the other candidate here, and given that he's the only team to be NiJoed out of the playoffs before, it would certainly be poetic. If Barnard loses, he could still make the playoffs if he wins the division over Marco, and a non-top three scorer (likely Gutman or me), is in sixth. Barnard should obviously root for himself, but also for Levine and Gutman, and definitely against Bennett.

5. Kumpf - Likely control my own destiny. I'm essentially in the same spot as Gutman and Barnard, just with more points banked and minimal shot at the division. I could shockingly end up anywhere from the 2 seed to out of the playoffs entirely. I just know I need to root against Alan and BAM for the bye, and then anyone close to me in points. I could win and miss the playoffs or lose and make the playoffs, and that lack of certainty has me extremely stressed out.

4. Zacherman - Likely controls his own destiny. Same situation as me, just with 4 more points and no shot at the division. The biggest factor for Z is that Tennessee and Cleveland are on the bye, and with them, his only semblance of a RB corps. If Z loses, he's a potential NiJo candidate, but given how the rest of the league has gained ground in the last two weeks, I wouldn't feel too safe. Z should be as stressed out as I am.

3. BAM - Control their own destiny. Finally some certainty! If BAM wins, they have no shot of ending up in the vulnerable sixth seed, and would make the playoffs as a top three seed. To get the bye, they need to win and have Levine lose, or have Alan lose, or have Alan win and make up 31 points on him. If they lose, they're still pretty safe. They need to hope that Barnard beats me, so ensure they don't end up in sixth, but even if I beat Barnard, the most likely NiJo threat would be in the playoffs already. This is the first team that can breathe somewhat easily.

2. Alan - Controls his own destiny. Alan can also breathe pretty easily, as it would be an absolute shock if he ended up falling to sixth and getting NiJoed with a loss. If he wins, he's in and likely has a bye, and if he loses, it would take absolute chaos for him to miss the playoffs. The Masandiassance lives on.

1. Levine - Clinched the playoffs. If Levine wins, he clinches the one seed and a bye. If he loses, he can't fall farther than third, but that bye is pretty important for our 4th lowest scoring team. Outside of that, he should just be rooting for the more dangerous teams to lose to make his absurdly easy schedule continue in the playoffs.

My head is spinning so there could be some inaccuracies in there, but here are the basic facts:

• Weissbard, Esco, AGD and Bruno are eliminated.
• Ajay can only get in via the NiJo rule, but it would take a miracle. He needs to put up a shit ton of points and hope for the best.
• Marco and Bennett have multiple paths to the playoffs, but none is very likely. They both need to win, root for for each other (but not too much) and Esco, and hope things break their way.
• Gutman, Barnard, myself and Z likely just need to win, but we also probably need to put up enough points to stay out of 6th. A loss wouldn't officially eliminate any of us, but those situations aren't ideal.
• BAM and Alan control their own destiny, and neither one is really in much danger of missing out.
• Levine is sitting pretty but still needs to win for the bye.

Everyone still has something to play for, whether that's a playoff berth, a bye, avoiding shots at next year's draft, or plain old spite. Best of luck to everyone but Barnard. See some of you on Friday.