Week 8 Recap

We're at an interesting point in the fantasy calendar. More than halfway through the regular season, still three weeks from the trade deadline, and the playoff picture is wide open. Every team other than Marco and Ajay are within one game of a top five playoff spot, and Marco is currently in the NiJo spot. That means that everyone should be on the lookout for trades, and that will be my focus for the next three posts. Next week I'm in NYC for school so it will be the briefest post of the season, but the week of 11/15 will be mock trade mania, and today I'll give everyone the strategy that I would take heading into the trade deadline.

But first, the Playoff Picture:

1. Weissbard - Bye - Division Champion
2. Billy - Bye - Wild Card 1
3. Kumpf - Division Champion
4. AGD - Division Champion
5. Barnard - Wild Card 2
6. Marco - NiJo Spot

Levine and Alan are within 20 points of the second Wild Card, and Zacherman is 7 back of Marco for the NiJo spot. 

Trade Grade 8
Marco receives Antonio Gibson, Devonta Freeman, and DK Metcalf
Weissbard receives David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert, and Amari Cooper

I don't like trying to grade this one because it's really about what players you think will be better (which is typically a crapshoot) instead of a commentary on team construction (which is less of a crapshoot). So this one really comes down to ceiling vs. floor, and from my perspective, both teams are misreading their situations.

Weissbard's roster is certainly not a first place roster, but it would take a Barnardian collapse for him to miss the playoffs, with a bye more likely than not. That makes him a contender, and as such, he should be doing whatever he can to raise his team's ceiling. As frustrating as Gibson has been so far, when healthy he is an RB1 candidate, and you already have his backup anyway. At WR, DK has managed to produce even with Geno Smith, so assuming Russ does come back, he has week-winning potential. Instead Weiss gets a boring Bears backfield that has the potential to be a timeshare given how good Herbert has looked, and Amari Cooper, who's fine but does not have nearly the ceiling that DK does.

Marco, on the other hand, just needs to keep consistently scoring points. He would need to pass 4 teams to win the Division and 7 teams to get a Wild Card, so the NiJo spot is by far his best path to the playoffs. Instead of keeping the boring but consistent Bears backfield, he now inherits Gibson's injury headaches without even securing McKissic as insurance. DK over Cooper is an upgrade either way, but if for some reason Russ doesn't come back soon, there's a lot of risk there.

Overall, Marco got the better players, but I can't really call this a win for either team.

Grades:
Marco: C+
Weissbard: D+

Week 8 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1st) 
Trade Strategy: Honestly this team is pretty stacked. Two top 10 RBs, three top 13 WRs, a top 5 TE, and then Dak, who's a top 5 QB when healthy. That doesn't even include Julio, who may be washed, but is far better than most teams' fourth WR (myself excluded). The only real strategy I can see here would be to trade Julio or Singletary for Mark Ingram in case Kamara goes down? 

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 6th) 
Trade Strategy: This is easy. I have four top 25 WRs, so trying to package 1-2 of them for an RB upgrade is the low hanging fruit. I could also use a QB upgrade, but I'm holding out hope that Taysom turns into Michael Vick.

3. Nick (Last Week: 8th) 
Trade Strategy: This is another low-key stacked roster without many weaknesses. Getting a handcuff for Saquon is certainly a top priority given his history, and beyond that, I can see trying to upgrade the WR2 spot by combining Lockett or AB with Melvin.

4. Levine (Last Week: 5th) 
Trade Strategy: Another easy one. Levine has five RBs that could start for most other teams, or at least act as flex options. However, he's stuck starting a ton of mediocrity at WR. An upgrade can be made there (or at TE) relatively painlessly.

5. Mejia (Last Week: 2nd) 
Trade Strategy: The team I can't quit. This starting lineup is still extremely solid, with the potential of improved performance, though Rodgers latest drama certainly doesn't help. Priority #1 should be getting Mattison for the inevitable Dalvin injury, but beyond that you just need to hope that no one gets hurt.

6. Fraudbard (Last Week: 9th) 
Trade Strategy: The fact that Weiss was able to ride out the CMC and Russ (and even Jeudy) injuries without falling out of first place is shocking and frankly unacceptable for the rest of the league. But here we are, and his squad is finally getting healthy. His only real trade asset is at QB, which should be able to net him a startable receiver opposite DK, but that still leaves holes at TE and Flex that keep him out of true contender status.

7. Ajay (Last Week: 12th) 
Trade Strategy: Big rise this week for an Ajay team that somehow has multiple starting RBs! Some of those are temporary situations, so combining someone like Mattison with a TE for a more stable RB might be a good move. But considering how the season started, just having a relatively solid roster is something to revel in for now.

8. Billy (Last Week: 3rd) 
Trade Strategy: Hard to analyze Billy's roster until we see how the Titans RB situation shakes out, but the AP bid may have been huge. More likely, they split carries between AP and McNichols, and pass a lot more, which is a lose/lose. It's not really worth trading Taylor or Najee at this point, but giving up the Titans RBs for a WR upgrade might be in the cards.

9. Zacherman (Last Week: 7th) 
Trade Strategy: The Ridley situation really limits Z's trade options, but he's the first team that I think should be really aggressive. WR2, TE and Flex are the holes in this roster, so flipping Davante Adams for a WR downgrade and an upgrade at one of the other spots would help balance the roster and limit your exposure to an apparently contagious Packers team.

10. Barnard (Last Week: 4th) 
Trade Strategy: All year, WR has been your obvious spot to trade from. Fleecing Alan with Odell and Jakobi was one thing, but somehow you lost Ruggs and Michael Thomas for wildly different reasons on back to back days, and now you don't really have any depth at all. Your biggest trade chips now are probably the Chiefs, with a Tyreek for RB/WR duo looking like your best path toward a balanced roster.

11. Marco (Last Week: 10th)
Trade Strategy: What a sad season this has been. Runningback whack-a-mole has been fun to watch for me, but must be brutal on a weekly basis. Now that Mike Williams predictably fell back to earth, your WR depth is not nearly as great as it was, but there are still trade packages here. The Seattle or Chicago RBs plus a WR is not a bad trio to give an upgrade at either RB or WR, but I'm not sure if anyone wants to touch your kursed roster.

12. Alan (Last Week: 14th) 
Trade Strategy: We're now firmly in the Blow It Up section of the post. Alan has Josh Allen, who is one of the few QBs that may be capable of pulling in a starting RB in return (especially if package with an AJ Dillon type). Given Alan's previous trade results, I doubt we actually see a move here, but getting a 30-point scorer at QB could put some of our contenders over the top.

13. Gutman (Last Week: 11th) 
Trade Strategy: Probably the hardest team for me to come up with ideas for, primarily because pretty much the whole team has underproduced so you're selling low on everyone. Between Saquon's handcuff, Gronk's potential doubled with a weak TE position, and your core of Hurts/Jones/Harris/Terry, there's probably a move that can be made, but really you need everyone to start playing better. Ajay just had this happen, so it's not impossible.

14. Esco (Last Week: 13th) 
Trade Strategy: As everyone says, Esco and Alan have a lot in common, and that extends to their strategies. Kyler is banged up, so the window may have already closed, but his ceiling is also worth a ton in a trade. Beyond that, I don't really know what to tell you.

Matchup of the Week: Ajay vs. Levine

Everything coming up Ajay this week, as he tries to make a last-ditch effort to save his season. That includes trying to win a key divisional matchup against an up and down Levine team. No real bye issues here, which is refreshing, so we will get a good look at each of these squads as they try to stay alive in the playoff hunt.

Thursday Night Football is a fun way to start, with an inconsistent Wentz taking on Michael Carter, who looked like post-prime Marshall Faulk last week. If Levine is in the lead after tonight, then this thing is over. If not, then Ajay has a real chance. Lamar and Ekeler will put up points, but beyond that, the ceiling is low for Levine. Ajay has the Henderson/Eli/JJ/Lamb/Waller core, all with good matchups, and while he's currently starting Renfrow at Flex, Darrell Williams looks better to me now that Rodgers is out. I have kursed the hell out of this pick for the last few weeks, but I need Levine to lose and I'm still going with the underdog.

Pick: Ajay
MotW Record: 3-5
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4