It's time for my favorite post the of year, Mock Trade Mania. We've already had 11 trades this year, but I'll be disappointed if we don't hit 15 before the deadline next Friday. As always, these mock trades aren't always the flashiest, but hopefully provide some fodder for trade talks that are eventually consummated.
But first, the Playoff Picture:
1. Billy - Bye - Division Champion
2. Weissbard - Bye - Wild Card 1
3. Kumpf - Division Champion
4. AGD - Division Champion
5. Barnard - Wild Card 2
6. Zacherman - NiJo Spot
We have some shuffling at the bottom here, as the Barndogs momentarily returned to early season form, and Z gained some big ground to take over the NiJo spot. I would currently put the top 3 teams as 90% or higher to make the playoffs, with AGD in the 75% range. Beyond that, it's a free-for-all for the second Wild Card (Barnard, Levine, Alan, Nick) and the NiJo spot (Z, Marco, plus the Wild Card contenders).
Before getting to the mock trades, we have a couple grades from last week to catch up on. All grades are based on when the trade was made.
Trade Grade 10 (Guest Grade by Esco)
Kumpf receives Miles Gaskin
Levine receives Marquise Brown
Levine was probably the only team with too many RBs. Prior to the trade he had at least 5 startable RBs, but guessing who the flex play is between Carter, Williams and Gaskin was almost impossible. Meanwhile, like the rest of us, Kumpf is desperate for warm bodies at RB after the Latavius injury. Unfortunately, Gaskin was the worst of Levine’s RBs AND still has his bye coming up so I’m not sure Kumpf really plugged a hole here. With or without Tua, the Miami offense hasn’t exactly set the world on fire. However, Marquise was essentially expendable with his WR stable so at least he didn’t give up much for the most valuable resource in the league this year.
For Levine, I’m not really sure this makes his roster management any easier unfortunately. He now has 4 WRs and 2 RBs that sit in the same relative band of value so deciding which 3 to start between Moore, Brown, Sanders, Cooks, Williams and Carter will still be a bit of a guessing game. At least he has more depth for the bye weeks and injuries so I give him the slight edge here but I’m not sure this trade has any major playoff implications.
Grades:
Kumpf: C+
Levine: B-
Editor's Note: Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease: F
Trade Grade 11
Esco receives Russell Wilson and Christian Kirk
Weissbard receives Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Fraudbard is making moves to establish himself as a legit contender. Russ and Kirk should most likely have never seen his starting lineup barring an injury to Herbert, and in their place he gets a very interesting piece in CEH. He's supposedly return this coming week, and no one really knows what his role will be, but this was a risk well worth taking.
Not really sure what Esco was thinking, but I've heard that HFM disease may lead to dementia. If I'm Esco, I'm looking to get rid of my current QB for an upgrade elsewhere, but he apparently thought a QB with a broken finger on a run-first team was worth trading from his already weak RB corps. If there is another trade or two coming, then I'll eat my words, but there's a reason this team has lived in the 14 spot most of the season.
Grades:
Esco: D-
Weissbard: A
Trade Grade 12
Marco receives D'Onta Foreman and JD McKissic
Weissbard receives DeAndre Hopkins and Jamison Crowder
All season I've been beating the drum about how RBs are far more valuable than WRs, so much so that position matters more than talent in most cases. This is not one of those cases. While Marco was insanely fucked at RB, there were ways to fix that without sacrificing Hopkins. Chase Edmonds to Levine for Jeff Wilson (or even just bidding for Jeff Wilson earlier on Friday) would have made sense, for example. If Marco thinks that Foreman is a legit top 20 RB for the rest of the season, then while I wildly disagree, this is somewhat understandable. Getting McKissic as Gibson insurance is smart as well, but again, it did not have to cost you Hopkins. Marco's only path to the playoffs is via the NiJo spot, so even a banged up Hopkins provides the type of upside that can bank a couple of 30 point weeks over the next month. I assume Foreman gets you 8-10 points per game at best. Enjoy that.
As for Weissbard, the fraud has officially been rescinded. Trading RBs for a top 10 WR when healthy, and still being left with CMC, CEH, and the Bears RBs is honestly impressive. Between Hopkins' injury, Amari getting COVID, and Alan not starting the Pats D, you still likely won't finish with the best record, but come playoff time you're up with AGD and Levine in a tier of your own.
Grades:
Marco: D+
Weissbard: A
Trade Grade 13
Ajay receives Adrian Peterson
Billy receives Hunter Renfrow
The top two teams by record are doing some easy business this week. Despite dropping a ton of FAAB on Peterson, he hasn't claimed the Titans backfield and is in a timeshare at best. Without having Foreman and/or McNichols, there's no reason for Billy to burn a roster spot on AP when he can get an upgrade for his receiving corps, which Renfrow shockingly provides. Typically giving up an RB with a hint of upside for WR outside the top 20 (30?) is not smart, but Renfrow immediately steps in as Billy's WR1, and if Billy loses either of his stud RBs, he's fucked anyway. He may have been able to do better than Renfrow for AP, which is the only nitpick here, but if Foreman does take over the backfield today, then Billy sold relatively high.
Ajay went from stacked at RB to desperate in less than a week, which just about sums up his season. It hurts to give up a found money flex option in Renfrow, but if AP does establish himself as an early down back for the rest of the season, this is a great move. I don't think that happens, but Ajay needs upside plays here so I can't fault him too much. If AP starts again for Ajay after this week, then it's either great or terrible news.
Grades:
Ajay: C+
Billy: B+
Mock Trade Mania
Mock Trade 1
Gutman receives Melvin Gordon and Antonio Brown
Nick receives Devontae Booker and Terry McLaurin
Starting off relatively slow, but this move gives Nick a pretty nice WR upgrade while also providing some much needed Saquon insurance. Gutman is in dire straits regardless, but with Aaron Jones out, he can at least pick up a starting RB.
Mock Trade 2
AGD receives Najee Harris and Adrian Peterson
Billy receives Cordarrelle Patterson, Mike Davis, and Chris Godwin
And boom goes the dynamite. Mock trades for Billy are always tough, but with his WR situation, getting Godwin might be worth the downgrade to the Atlanta RBs. The injury situation with Patterson and Davis will need to be monitored, but the potential for a blockbuster is there.
Mock Trade 3
Ajay receives Lamar Jackson, James Conner, and Noah Fant
Levine receives Tom Brady, Darrell Williams, and George Kittle
Ajay needs upside if he has any chance of claiming the NiJo slot, and going from Brady to Lamar provides just that. It would require him completely abandoning his ill-fated TE draft strategy, and would solidify the biggest weakness on Levine's roster, so getting James Conner's guaranteed workload in exchange for the confusion in KC evens things out.
Mock Trade 4
Alan receives Aaron Rodgers and Dalvin Cook
Mejia receives Josh Allen, AJ Dillon, and Odell Beckham Jr.
Alan is for some reason trying to trade away his RBs, who are still insanely below average, so this is a bit of a course correction. Adding Dalvin gives Alan a clear RB1 for the first time all season, and while he downgrades at QB, he doesn't touch his WR duo. Mejia's team has been top heavy all year, so this adds Josh's upside and some depth at WR in exchange for the big drop at RB. At least he won't have to worry about Dalvin's injury/suspension situation.
Mock Trade 5
Barnard receives David Montgomery, Khalil Herbert, and Jaylen Waddle
Weissbard receives Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, and Deebo Samuel
I went back and forth on this one between including Deebo or Tyreek, but figured Barnard would be too stubborn to break up his Chiefs. The Bears and Eagles have relatively boring running games, but the situation in Chicago has a clear starter/backup situation as opposed to the confusion in Philly. The cost for some certainty at RB is steep, but by making this deal, Barnard could make another move to upgrade at WR. As for Weissbard, the lack of a true WR1 is one of the few remaining holes on his ever-evolving roster.
Mock Trade 6
Esco receives Miles Gaskin and A.J. Brown
Kumpf receives Kyler Murray and Keenan Allen
I'm still confused about Esco trading for Russ, but I have to assume it means that he intends on trading Kyler. My Tannehill/Cousins duo is functional but boring as hell (and now featuring Cam!), so taking a risk on Kyler's health is worth sacrificing my newly acquired RB depth and downgrading at WR, and it means Esco doesn't have to start Kenyan Drake and can ride Miami's easy schedule.
Mock Trade 7
Marco receives Davante Adams
Z receives Devonta Freeman, De'Andre Hopkins, and DK Metcalf
We end on a massive consolidation trade, as Marco takes a big swing for Davante, and sacrifices all of his depth in the process. Z fills his WR2 and Flex holes, while hoping that depth makes up for Davante's upside. Marco re-establishes his roster upside in the hopes of making a run at the NiJo spot.
Week 11 Power Rankings
1. Levine (Last Week: 2nd)
2. AGD (Last Week: 1st)
3. Fraudbard (Last Week: 4th)
4. Billy (Last Week: 6th)
5. Kumpf (Last Week: 3rd)
6. Ajay (Last Week: 8th)
7. Nick (Last Week: 5th)
8. Zacherman (Last Week: 9th)
9. Mejia (Last Week: 7th)
10. Marco (Last Week: 10th)
11. Barnard (Last Week: 11th)
12. Alan (Last Week: 12th)
13. Gutman (Last Week: 13th)
14. Esco (Last Week: 14th)
Matchup of the Week: Kumpf vs. Levine
The winner here is all but assured to win the division, while the loser joins the fight for Wild Card 2 and the NiJo spot. Lots of juicy storylines here, starting with the Hollywood/Gaskin trade last week, going through the contentious bid for the Miami D/ST (suck it Levine).
The matchup itself is going to be tight. Lamar and Hollywood vs. Latavius and Andrews will in all likelihood determine who wins, and given the way they played last week, I have no idea what to expect. We also have some Titans fun with Tannehill, AJB, and Geoff Swaim, and I assume that we will be the only two teams interested in the Miami/Jets game.
This will likely come down to Ekeler vs. Diontae on SNF, and unless I'm up 20 heading into the game, I don't like my odds. Call this reverse JuJu or call it admirable humility, but I'm going with the Power Rankings here.
Pick: Levine
MotW Record: 4-6
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4
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