Week 7 Recap

With the move to a 14-game Regular Season, we're officially at the halfway point for the first time ever. I want to start by looking at the Playoff Picture if the season ended today:

1. Billy - Division Leader - Bye
2. Weissbard - Wild Card 1- Bye
3. Kumpf - Division Leader
4. Barnard - Division Leader
5. Alan - Wild Card 2
6. AGD - NiJo Spot

This list does not include some top point scorers in Marco (5th), Levine (6th), or Zacherman (7th), but does include Alan (8th) and Weissbard (9th). This is not unheard of, as those teams are separated by less than 10ppg. The bigger concern for Marco/Levine/Z is that they are are 17-30 points behind AGD right now, and I consider AGD to be the best of that group, so the gap should theoretically only increase. So if we're looking a straight playoff odds, I would actually give Esco and Mejia a better chance of making the playoffs as things stand now, despite their far inferior rosters, because either of them could win their division with another couple lucky breaks.

Trade Grade 7
Barnard receives Alex Collins and Henry Ruggs
Weissbard receives Chuba Hubbard and Justin Jackson

Tradin' Dan strikes again! Since Draft Day, it's been obvious that Weissbard would need to make a move to get Chuba. CMC is too valuable, and too injury prone, so his handcuff was arguably the most valuable in the league (though not nearly as talented as guys like Mattison or Pollard) . On the flip side, Barnard has been trying to get Ruggs on his roster since he first saw his Madden speed score. On paper, this was a pretty even trade when talking pure value, and potentially even a win for Barnard.

This is not on paper. Barnard has a legitimate contending roster outside of his massive question mark at RB2. He is stacked at WR, and even has some reinforcements available with Michaels Thomas and Gallup potentially flex options if/when they get healthy. He should be spending all of his resources trying to fill that RB2 slot, which I thought he understood by executing a smart Miles Sanders trade with Alan. Instead, he traded away Chuba, who is a no-doubt starter when CMC is hurt (which he...is) for Collins, a timeshare RB for a currently terrible offense who's share of the time is only going to shrink, and Ruggs, who theoretically should never see his starting lineup. If Barnard thinks Collins is an every week starter, then while I disagree, there is at least some logic there. If Ruggs played any part in his accepting this trade, then I question how I ever had him 1st in the Power Rankings.

Weissbard did a good bit of business, locking down the Carolina and Washington backfields. Not flashy, and there are still massive concerns with this roster, but at 6-1 he can afford to play it safe and hope to fill his WR and TE holes with streaming and potentially a QB trade.

Also Barnard now has to change his team name.

Grades:
Barnard: C
Weissbard: B+ 

Week 7 Power Rankings

We still have a few weeks before the Trade Deadline, so rather than go right to the mock trades this week, I'm going to take the easy way out and break the league into tiers based solely on roster quality now and moving forward. Yes, the Power Rankings do this somewhat on their own, but I'm still catching up from class last weekend and this saves me time. In terms of trades, these tiers can be considered Buyers, Sellers, and TBD.

Tier 1 - The Current Contenders
1. AGD (Last Week: 4th)
2. Mejia (Last Week: 2nd)
3. Billy (Last Week: 3rd) 
4. Barnard (Last Week: 1st) 
5. Levine (Last Week: 5th) 
6. Kumpf (Last Week: 6th) 

Some of these are obvious. Billy's team looks very legit right now, Barnard's ceiling is high as long as Mahomes is healthy and apparently not facing the Titans, and AGD and me are hovering around .500 despite a Points Scored performance that should lead to better results down the road. The "hot takes" here are the inclusion of Levine and mostly Mejia, and the absence of Weissbard. I'll get into Fraudbard in the section below, but I am willing to guarantee that either Levine or Mejia makes the playoffs. 

Levine's deep team can compete in any given week, but the key to his future prospects remains his tradeability. As anyone who has tried to negotiate a trade with Billy can attest, when you have too many studs, it's kind of hard to make a fair trade. Levine has a TON of mediocre yet startable players that can lead to several iterations of workable trades. I know it's never fun to negotiate with Levine, as he continually runs his mouth on the listserve and in the GroupMe, but if he can swing a power move in the next two weeks, he will move up this list fast.

As for Mejia, he simply has above average talent everywhere but WR2 and Flex, and he's really the only team that can say that. If you're going to be weak anywhere, streaming your WR2 and Flex is the place you'd want to be. And while his co-manager may be actively damaging their prospects, I still have a weird amount of faith in this Mejia roster.

Tier 2 - Hanging Around
7. Zacherman (Last Week: 8th) 
8. Nick (Last Week: 9th) 
9. Weissbard (Last Week: 7th) 
10. Marco (Last Week: 12th) 

Lots going on in this tier. You have the defending champ who is currently tied for the best record in the league, as well as a perpetually snakebitten NiJo team. Of the four,  Z is definitely the closest to contention. His record is somehow second from the bottom, but he's got an above average roster and room to improve as long as Davante doesn't give the whole team COVID. Marco was my preseason pick, but he seems to have been #Kursed from the start, with a slew of RB injuries and WFT-related Karma continually biting him in the ass.

As for Weissbard, I mean how is this team 6-1? He lost CMC, he lost Russ (which hugely impacted DK), he's been dealing with a diminished Gibson, and even Dawson Knox, his previous best pickup, is now hurt. I don't think this team deserves its record in its current state, however, those wins are banked and there is a path to actual contention. If everyone gets healthy, I'd put them at the bottom of the tier above. That's obviously not guaranteed, and given the Russ timeline, there may need to be a trade decision made before he returns. I'm saving any official mock trades for another week, but Russ/Gibson/McKissic for Najee Harris would be a pretty fun challenge trade between our 6-1 teams.

Tier 3 - Blow It Up
11. Gutman (Last Week: 11th) 
12. Ajay (Last Week: 10th) 
13. Esco (Last Week: 14th) 
14. Alan (Last Week: 12th) 

In some ways, these teams are the most fun. Esco and Alan are actually above .500 right now, but that is fool's gold when you look at their points scored, points against, and most importantly, their rosters. Alan has a chance to rebound if Kareem Hunt comes back as the RB1 in Cleveland, but as it stands now, he has only three healthy players that would start on most teams. Esco's squad has rallied out of the basement thanks to the continued excellence of Kyler, the emergence of D'Andre Swift, RB1, and a shrewd Ricky Seals-Jones pickup. His ceiling is still probably the lowest in the league, but if Kyler stays healthy he's both the most terrifying player to face in the league, as well as the most intriguing trade asset out there.

Gutman and Ajay have equally poor teams, and they're a lot less fun. I still don't think Gutman's roster is bad (and he was a borderline Hanging Around team), but they just have not lived up to expectations. If pretty much everyone on the roster only performs at 60-75% of what they're capable of, it's easy to have a lost season. And as for Ajay, the dual TE experiment predictably crashed and burned, but he's done a decent job of recovering. At 1-6, he doesn't really have a path to the playoffs, but we'll always have the Eli Mitchell bid.

Matchup of the Week: Billy vs. Kumpf

I hate putting myself in MotW, especially when I don't have confidence in my team, and especially when half my starting lineup (aka the Ravens) is on bye, but this was the obvious choice. Billy is down a QB, but Matty Ice has looked just as good, if not better, than Carr the last couple of weeks. 

This matchup will likely be determined by potential blowouts. Will the Rams keep feeding Kupp if they're up 30 at half over Houston? Will Corey Davis go off with Mike "Walter" White or Flacco throwing him the ball on every down? Is starting multiple Bengals RBs a new low for me?

At full strength, I think our teams are pretty even on paper. But between the Ravens being on bye, and the matchups in general, I don't think I can hang this week.

Pick: Billy
MotW Record: 3-4
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4