Week 5 Recap

Last week I said that there were no good teams, and only one bad one. Esco somehow exceeded those expectations by losing Clyde and Kenny, and the rest of the league was all over the place. Even if there are no good teams, there are players that blow up in a given week, and Week 5 was one of the biggest boom/bust weeks in recent memory. We had 10 players break 30, double the next highest week so far, and 16 players over 25. Teams like Alan (3 players at 5 or less), Mejia (3 players at 6.3 or less), Billy (3 players at 7.24 or less, including his QB), and Levine (3 players at 6.3 or less) all won despite less than stellar team performances. I'm of the opinion that the best indicator of future performance is limiting weaknesses, but I also don't have a chef's coat and sit at 2-3 with minimal top-end talent this year. Regardless, this week we're going to take a look at each team's Achilles heels, both obvious and underrated.

But first, a trade!

Trade Grade 4
Alan receives Odell Beckham Jr., Jakobi Meyers, and Patriots D/ST
Barnard receives Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert, and Panthers D/ST

The theme of this season has been that Runningback is a complete wasteland and WRs are a dime a dozen. I thought Alan understood this when he traded DK for Kareem Hunt. Apparently he did not, as this trade is nothing less than malpractice. 

Before the trade, Barnard had a glut of WRs but no real way to turn them into a starting RB unless he included Reek or maaaybe Deebo. Enter Alan, who thinks getting two flex options is worth giving up his primary RB depth. On a weekly basis, I can easily see either Odell or Jakobi outscoring Sanders, but 1) that's not guaranteed and 2) it requires Alan to pick the right one. I also think that if Alan was going to trade away one of his RBs, he should have aimed for Sutton or looked toward one of the many other RB-needy teams for a better option.

As for Barnard, he gave up players he would never need to start to upgrade his biggest weakness. Can't really ask for much better than that, and now he can look to trade away Chuba or DJ along with one of his WRs and get even more startable talent. As it stands now, I still don't see Barnard as the favorite (this is still Miles Sanders we're talking about), but if he's able to make one more consolidation trade, or if Michael Thomas comes back as a WR1, then the 2021 could easily be the Barndogs year.

Grades:
Alan Grade: D
Barnard Grade: A-

Week 5 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 3rd)
Obvious Weakness: Wide receiver. DK has the talent, but now he doesn't have the QB, and beyond that things are bleak. Between Ruggs and Waddle, there is the chance for a breakout, but very little reliability. The problem with having a QB-WR connection is that when one goes down, they both are affected.
Underrated Weakness: Lack of trade options. The Russ injury is also killer because it removes the only real chance of a trade. Someone like Billy could look at buying low on an injured Russ, but the return would be nowhere near what is was a week ago.

2. AGD (Last Week: 1st)
Obvious Weakness: Lineup Management. This team has no real holes, and has more startable players at RB/WR than any other team in the league. But beyond Kamara, there is a decision to be made at every position, and so far they have cost themselves multiple wins by making the wrong ones.
Underrated Weakness: Wide receiver. Godwin and Chase are easily starting options, but in crowded offenses, so they have higher dud potential than it might look. Pittman has been fine, but relies way more on Carson Wentz than I'm comfortable with.

3. Levine (Last Week: 4th)
Obvious Weakness: Monday Night Football. He lost two wins on MNF in heartbreaking fashion to start the year, and while the last two weeks have shown signs of life, if I'm Levine I'm scared anytime I see my opponent with a player left on Mondays.
Underrated Weakness: Wide receiver. DJ Moore has been hot and cold, and that's the highlight here. Even if Fields improves over the course of the season, I don't see ARob living up to his draft price, and as expected teams have started covering Brandin Cooks. There are a few logical trade candidates here, but I can't see this team winning the Stevens Bowl without an upgrade at WR.

4. Barnard (Last Week: 10th)
Obvious Weakness: Runningback. Even though I loved the trade for Barnard, it was more about what he gave up than what he got. Miles Sanders isn't the answer by any means, but he's an unquestionable upgrade over the rest of the garbage Barnard has been starting this year. Lack of handcuffs and upside here make this the clear biggest concern for a contender this year.
Underrated Weakness: Reliance on the Chiefs. They're still the #1 rated offense this year, but things have obviously not been as lights out as in previous years. If teams have started to figure out how to contain Tyreek, the ceiling here is more limited and the lack of talent at RB becomes more glaring.

5. Marco (Last Week: 6th)
Obvious Weakness: Tight End/Defense. This roster is arguably the most stacked in the league outside of the two afterthought positions. Streaming at TE and Defense isn't the end of the world, but a trade to upgrade TE specifically is likely worth it. Wasting a bench spot on Washington (DST29 on the season) is still a joke, but at least they're not starting this week?
Underrated Weakness: Health. While he has only lost David Montgomery and Logan Thomas for extended time so far, it seems like half of Marco's roster is Questionable every week, and/or leaves the game with injury. Some of that is expected, but that makes it no less frustrating. He's also relying on a geriatric QB, but health does not appear to be a concern for immortals.

6. Billy (Last Week: 8th)
Obvious Weakness: Everything other than RB. He went as big as usual on the position, and got three of them this time (plus two handcuffs!), but Billy is squarely below average or worse at every other position.
Underrated Weakness: Difficulty to trade with. I'm not even referring to his work schedule, which doesn't appear to involve as much time on ESPN as most of us, but more that his roster construction makes trades difficult. While he has a massive strength where the rest of the league has a weakness, he also has massive weaknesses where the rest of the league has a strength. We discussed a trade surrounding Cooper Kupp and JTT, but couldn't find a way to make it work. I suspect this wasn't the only failed trade discussion Billy has had in the last few weeks.

7. Kumpf (Last Week: 2nd
Obvious Weakness: No studs. This was by design, but without spending $50+ on any one player, I'm left with a bunch of slightly above average or worse starters. Yes, Kupp and Andrews have exploded in a given week, but I don't have the reliability that pretty much everyone else has.
Underrated Weakness: Quarterback. Tannehill has been a boring but stable QB1 in fantasy since taking over for the Titans, but he currently sits at QB21 for the year heading into a game against Buffalo's defense. Injuries have hurt his receiving corps, but the loss of Arthur Smith to Atlanta might be the real root cause.

8. Nick (Last Week: 7th) 
Obvious Weakness: Quarterback. Both Burrow and Heincke have shown flashes this year, but Nick goes into pretty much every matchup with a 5-point disadvantage at the highest scoring position.
Underrated Weakness: Instability. He's got a bunch of boom/bust players, but the busts have far outweighed the booms so far this year. That has only affected his starting lineup once (4/5 weeks over 98 points), but prevents this from being a top 5 team.

9. Zacherman (Last Week: 5th)
Obvious Weakness: Lack of depth. As I said when he traded away CEH (ironically now injured), but one injury to Z's starting lineup forces an uncomfortable reliance on Houston RBs. Two weeks later, Mark Ingram come on down!
Underrated Weakness: RB job security. Both Zeke and JRob have looked great the last couple of weeks and sit as top 10 RBs on the season, but through two weeks they were both at risk of losing a good chunk of their jobs. That may have been an early season fluke, but I would still be surprised if they both finish in the top 10.

10. Ajay (Last Week: 11th)
Obvious Weakness: Quarterback. Gross.
Underrated Weakness: Tight End?!? Kittle got hurt roughly 15 minutes after I brought up the possibility two weeks ago, and while Waller is missing practice primarily due to rest, he has yet to break 5 receptions since his Week 1 explosion. Ajay's TE situation is still better than the majority of the league, but he has to use a ton of roster spots on the TE and QB positions, hurting his flexibility elsewhere.

11. Mejia (Last Week: 9th)
Obvious Weakness: Everyone outside the top 3. Your weakness is exactly the opposite of your strength. This is an Esco-level roster once you remove Rodgers, Cook, and Kelce.
Underrated Weakness: Quarterback. Rodgers is only QB 15, yet he's still one of your only good players. If he stays at 15 or worse, you could compete with Esco for Shot Spot.

12. Gutman (Last Week: 13th)
Obvious Weakness: Lack of high end talent. Gutman's roster is a slightly lesser version of mine, which is appropriate as we match up this week. I'm sure he will break 120 against me, but without a true game changer, and a decently low floor, it's hard to get excited here.
Underrated Weakness: Wide receiver. This one may have an expiration date if Devonta goes off tonight, but only Terry is currently in the top 30 at WR on this roster which is wild given all the draft money spent on the position. Aiyuk is up there with most disappointing picks of the season.

13. Alan (Last Week: 12th)
Obvious Weakness: Trading skills.. Before the trade with Barnard, I would have had Alan top 10. But not only did he hurt his roster prospects, but I also don't have faith in his ability to make trades moving forward. 
Underrated Weakness: Runningback. Hunt and Moss have been serviceable, but Hunt is on the wrong side of a timeshare and Moss is technically the backup RB on his team as well after Josh.

14. Esco (Last Week: 14th)
Obvious Weakness: Everyone besides Kyler and Keenan.
Underrated Weakness: Complete lack of assets to trade besides Kyler and Keenan.

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Weissbard

No divisional matchups at all this week, but we do have 1 vs. 2 in the Power Rankings! Weiss could be on his way to a third title in four years, while AGD may have to look at the NiJo spot if they fall to 2-4.

Byes are a factor for the first time this year, and that hurts AGD more than most, with Kamara and his Falcons RBs all out of commission. Even with that handicap, AGD has some pretty sweet defenses to face this week other than for Dak, so I expect this to be closer than it looks based on names alone. Weissbard looks to be welcoming CMC back right as he loses Russ, so we'll see how health that hamstring looks. Defenses are much more difficult on the Weiss side across the board, so I expect this to come down to a classic showdown of Knox vs. Singletary on MNF. 

Weissbard may have grown to 5'7" this week, but I'm pretty confident that if you stack Belfer and Reap on top of each other, they break 6 feet. I'm sticking with the duo for one more week.

Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 3-2
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4