Stevens Bowl XII Preview

 After the weirdest season in the weirdest year of our collective lives, we've finally made it to the finish line. 

The Semi-Final matchups could not have been more different. Gutman vs. Esco was an ugly slugfest where each team tried to underperform the other. Ultimately Esco was let down by more players and Gut escaped without getting burned by his lackluster (albeit logical) lineup management. 

On the other hand, Weissbard vs. Levine was a thriller that legitimately came down to a last minute drive. Levine supposedly wanted to start David Johnson over Zack Moss and didn't know there was a Saturday game, but that sounds like excuses to me. He was almost rescued by an asburd Logan Thomas game, but Engram "answered" with the bare minimum on SNF.

That brings us to the Grandaddy of them all...

Gutman! Weissbard! Mara! Lily! It's The Stevens Bowl XII!!!

Stevens Bowl XII - 3) Weissbard vs. 5) Gutman

QB:
Rodgers vs. Kyler is yet another great QB showdown that doesn't have any other mitigating factors that need to be consid...What? Is that Jalen Hurts' music? Gutman's great defensive pickup ended up giving him the win against Esco, but now it gives him an extremely difficult decision: Roll with Rodgers despite a subpar Week 14 and a banged up supporting cast, or fly with the Eagles and go all in with Hurts? It's a tough decision but there are probably no wrong answers. For Weissbard, Kyler looks healthy and that means we have three studs here.
Edge: Even

RB:
For most of the season this would have been yet another matchup of Henry vs. a deeper stable of RBs, but a few things have changed. First, Dobbins may have finally emerged as the starter in Baltimore, giving Gut two top-10 RBs. And on the flipside, Weiss's crew looks as bad as it has all season. JRob is banged up and might not play at all, and the Pittsburgh RB situation is now one to fully avoid. He could look at Gio or Carlos Hyde, but if those are the answers, you're asking the wrong questions.
Big Edge: Gutman

WR:
This is where the matchup will be decided. We have six of the top 11 WRs on the season involved in this game, not to mention Brandon Aiyuk, who has been better than all of them in the last month. The issue here is the same as QB, where Weiss can just roll with his studs while Gutman actually has a decision to make. Again there are no wrong answers, but I think Gut's floor is slightly lower overall. If he can win this position then it's game over.
Slight Edge: Weissbard

TE:
Fant, Gronk, Engram, and Hooper could easily combine for less than 20 points, and I fully expect both teams to pick the wrong guy.
Edge: Even

DST:
Some interesting choices here that could provide some fireworks based on the matchup. I was skeptical of Weissbard picking the Chargers last week, but this week I would actually prefer them to the Panthers team he has starting right now. Gutman needs to turn away from the Steel Curtain, but can pick the Bills who are extremely unlikely to let up more than 14 points to the Pats. I think Gut has more upside here, but this one is close as well.
Slight Edge: Gutman

Overall:
This should be an entertaining matchup give the talent involved. After the draft, I thought Gutman had the best roster and he only added to it throughout the season with a series of shockingly shrewd moves. I had Weissbard in 4th based on Draft Grades, but the JRob pickup and Ekeler trade vaulted him up to just about even with Gut.

My guess is that Weissbard has a 50 point lead heading into SNF, with Gut pulling ahead thanks to Henry and Rodgers. That leaves it to Diggs vs. Bills D in prime time, against a Pats team with a terrible offense and missing Gilmore. Weiss should get more points there, but not enough to make up the gap, with Diggs failing to reprise Engram's role from Week 15. Repeat Likely.
Pick: Gutman

MotW Record: 18-8

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Saints (-7) vs. Vikings

Bucs (-9.5) at Lions

49ers (+7) at Cardinals

Browns (-7) at Jets

Broncos (+3) at Chargers

Cowboys (+3) at Eagles

Packers (-3) vs. Titans

Last Week: 4-2-2
2020 Record: 45-41-5 (-1.77 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units) 

Semi-Final Preview

Welp, it's official. This is a Chef's Hat year. Thanks to Aaron Rodgers, Derrick Henry, Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs, Barnard and Marco fade into Bolivia leaving only previous champs in the Final Four for the first time ever. The No Coats Club remains at six teams for another year, and if Nick leaves again then we're back down to five.

The Final Four includes what is probably our four strongest teams. At full strength, Marco may have had something to say about that, but starting Peyton Barber, Tee Higgins, and Marvin Jones in a playoff game is a pretty strong counterpoint. I have Weissbard and Gutman as a clear 1-2, as Esco and Levine have somewhat depleted rosters, but as we saw with Barnard making the playoffs after actively harming his team on a weekly basis, anything can happen this year.

Let's take a closer look at who will advance to Stevens Bowl XII, Dr. Z-style:

Matchup 1: 1) Esco vs. 5) Gutman

QB:
This position was a definite weakness for these teams early in the season, but Gutman made some savvy trades to address things, while Esco was never able to get Barnard to give up Mahomes for RoJo. On top of that, Gutman stole Jalen Hurts, leaving Esco with a tough choice between Tua and Big Ben. Esco has Tua in right now (I would definitely go with Ben), but it doesn't matter in this analysis.
Big Edge: Gutman 

RB:
Another week where Gutman needs to hope Henry can outscore multiple opposing RBs combined, and another week where it's actually in play given that he faces the Lions. Kamara and Swift should be solid, and Cam Akers has turned into a potential league-winner for Esco. Akers gets the Jets, but that might not be a good thing given that Seattle benched their starters in the third quarter last week. There is a huge range of outcomes with this position, but it's one that Esco absolutely needs if he wants a chance this week. I like his odds.
Edge: Esco

WR:
We probably won't know Julio's status until after Friday's practice, but for these purposes I'm assuming he does not play and Barnard gets one last laugh this season. That leaves Gutman with a similar situation as last week, where he has four receivers that are probably better than any of his opponent's best guy. The biggest decision is whether Gutman starts Aiyuk over Woods or Jefferson. I think I'd probably start him over Woods, who is already banged up and might not see too many snaps against the Jets, but even if Julio plays, this isn't close.
Big Edge: Gutman 

TE:
Both Hock and Gronk are extremely TD-dependent, and they both get to play terrible pass defenses this week. Hock is a bigger part of his offense, but with Stafford seemingly unlikely to play, that may even things out. I'm not going to predict who gets the random two-yard TD so this is a true coin flip.
Edge: Even

DST:
A continuation of Gutman's excellent roster management saw him flip Devante Parker and the Fins D to a desperate Kumpf team for Aiyuk and the Steelers D. Whether he starts Aiyuk or not, Pitt's D gets to feast on the decimated Bengals, while Esco has to hope the Giants can tread water against Cleveland without Bradberry. 
Big Edge: Gutman

Overall:
Esco's team has been extremely solid all year, but as previously mentioned repeatedly, he's been propped up by TDs. Adding Cam Akers was huge, but losing both Will Fuller and likely Julio means the #1 overall seed is going to be a one and done.
Pick: Gutman

Matchup 2: 2) Levine vs. 3) Weissbard

QB:
Herbert did a great job keeping Levine's season afloat after the Dak injury, and Kyler hasn't looked right in weeks, but it seems like the Chargers will have no pass catchers tonight and that doubly hurts Levine.
Edge: Weissbard

RB:
Montgomery has low-key been a top 10 RB this year, but again, this isn't really close. Moss might vulture a TD or two, and JRob has to face the Ravens, but Ekeler is in line for double digit targets and likely has a baseline of 20 points. Levine is too banged up to keep up.
Edge: Weissbard

WR:
This is Levine's strongest position by far, with Ridley establishing himself even without Julio, and Thielen and Robby top 20 options as well. Having said that, no one can touch Weiss's trio of top 10 (5?) options. I'm sensing a theme here...
Edge: Weissbard

TE:
Logan Thomas vs. Evan Engram? Gross.
Edge: Even

DST:
Levine is starting a below average Vikings defense against a bottom 10 offense in Chicago. Weissbard is starting a terrible Chargers defense against an average offense in the Raiders. Not a lot of upside in either case, but Weiss could end up in the negatives.
Edge: Levine

Overall:
Levine avoided the ultimate embarrassment of starting 7-0 and missing the playoffs, and even got a bye for his troubles, but the road ends here. He put up a hell of a fight after losing Dak and Mixon, but the firepower the Weiss has at receiver, along with Ekeler's resurgence, sets up a meeting of the previous two champs.
Pick: Weissbard

MotW Record: 16-8

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Raiders (-3) vs. Chargers

Bills (-6) at Broncos

Packers (-7) vs. Panthers

Colts (-7) vs. Texans

Ravens (-12.5) vs. Jaguars

Dolphins (+1) vs. Patriots

Bucs (-6.5) at Falcons

Saints (+3) vs. Chiefs

Last Week: 2-3
2020 Record: 41-39-3 (-3.48 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units) 

Quarterfinal Preview

Well that was unexpected. Despite my Matchup of the Week predictions going 5-2, the two that I got wrong were the most influential as AGD completed an epic collapse and Esco extremely quietly earned himself Best Regular Season Record and a bye. Now we have Backdoor Barnard in the playoffs again, Dadbard surprisingly needs to play in Week 14, and Levine even more quietly got the other bye. Can't predict fantasy football.

AGD should be ashamed of themselves for losing to Billy in Week 14, which was their third loss to a non-playoff team, but they can't say I didn't warn them. Since the draft, I raved about their starting lineup but mentioned that their complete lack of depth left them vulnerable to injuries and would make trading difficult. They did make one trade, theoretically combining Flex options in McKinnon and some rookie WR for Kenny Golladay, but Golladay could never really get healthy and that rookie put up the best rookie WR season since Randy Moss. That left them starting Jalen Richard, Jakobi Meyers, and a WR catching passes from Colt McCoy with their season on the line. Maybe some time apart is what you guys need.

I'll cover Esco and Levine more next week, but even though they're not playing, they need to keep a close eye on Week 14. Esco may see De'Andre Swift come back, which means he may also see the modern day Jahvid Best get another concussion, putting "Adrian Peterson, playoff starter" in play. Julio's health and the backfield situations for the Rams and Jets are also important for a potential title run. Levine needs to hope that Herbert can score some points against Atlanta, while figuring out if he has a startable Tight End on his roster. The wild card out there for Levine is a Mixon return, though I don't know why they would bring him back at this point.

On to the Quarterfinals, Dr. Z style.

Matchup 1: 3) Weissbard vs. 6) Marco

QB:
What a showdown! Russ vs. Kyler and both playing the Jersey teams? Sign me up. The Giants D has proven itself the last few weeks, but I'm not sure how they'll contain Kyler once he's on the run. That said, I know how the Jets will handle Russ and it looks like 30+ points.
Edge: Marco

RB:
I'm assuming that neither CMC or Gibson plays, and that is bad news for Marco. Mike Davis could still be legit, and maybe Peyton Barber can break 25 yards if he gets 20 carries, but Weissbard's stable of RB1s wins the day here no matter who he goes with.
Big Edge: Weissbard

WR:
Keenan Allen should have himself a day against a terrible Falcons D, and I really like Crowder with Darnold back (Higgins is a non-factor without Burrow), but let's be real, Tyreek/Nuk/Diggs is untouchable.
Big Edge: Weissbard

TE:
Hunter Henry benefits from the same Falcons D that helps Keenan, and as long as they don't cannibalize each other (or we have a Mike Williams game?), I like Marco's situation here. Bonus points for Engram dropping a pass that leads to a game-turning pick six against the Cards.
Edge: Marco

DST:
The Panthers defense is nothing special, but Drew Lock loves turning the ball over, so it's not a bad situation this week. Marco is likely setting himself up for disaster by starting WFT in a must-win for both teams, and while they have a nice front seven, I trust Shanny to find some holes.
Slight Edge: Weissbard

Overall:
There was bound to be a week where Weissbard failed to break 100, as he had six straight weeks of triple digits heading into Rivalry Week, and that happened last week. That is not going to happen this week, and unless one or both of Marco's RBs has a miraculous recovery or Russ breaks 50, I don't think Marco has the firepower to keep up.
Pick: Weissbard

Matchup 2: 4) Barnard vs. 5) Gutman

QB:
Another incredible QB showdown! We probably have the top four MVP candidates facing off this week, which gives a significantly higher floor to both matchups than usual. For this one, I'm taking my life in my hands and going against Mahomes. Not only are the Dolphins a more difficult matchup than the Lions, but the Chiefs have low-key struggled to score TDs, failing to get one on their last 7 redzone trips, the longest streak in the league this year (come to the FALAFEL blog for Gutman's goofy face, stay for the random NFL trivia). Not a big edge, but one that will absolutely matter.
Slight Edge: Gutman

RB:
This is a tough one. Gutman should get 30+ from Henry against the Jags, but the dropoff to Gallman is pretty significant. Barnard's got Chubb, Melvin, and RoJo with different levels of competition, and a high floor of touches despite there being no evidence that Melvin and RoJo are good at football. I would love it if these guys decided to roll out Ingram vs. Dobbins on MNF, but I'll take Barnard's quantity over Gut's quality here.
Slight Edge: Barnard

WR:
Brandon Aiyuk is clearly Gutman's fourth best receiver, and he would clearly be Barnard's best receiver.
Big Edge: Gutman

TE:
If Gronk scores, there is no way Gutman loses because it takes away a needed chance from Evans/RoJo. That said, if it wasn't for Kelce, Waller would be getting a shit ton of stories written about him this year.
Big Edge: Barnard

DST:
This is a fun one. Barnard has to bite the bullet and start a legit Rams D against the Pats in a must-win for them tonight. Gutman has the #1 DST on the season, but they're coming off a subpar performance against WFT and will have a tough matchup with the Bills. Defensive TD potential aside, I'm siding with Donald and Co.
Slight Edge: Barnard

Overall:
Having Chubb on MNF is a nice last licks for Barnard, but I really can't get past that WR matchup, where any one of Gut's guys could outscore both of Barnard's receivers combined by 10+. This would be a lot closer if Barnard had a guy like DK Metcalf, but I guess there's always next year.
Pick: Gutman

MotW Record: 14-8

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Bears (+2) vs. Texans

Falcons (-1.5) at Chargers

Packers (-9) at Lions

Football Team (+3) vs. 49ers

Steelers (+3) at Bills

Last Week: 5-4
2020 Record: 39-36-3 (-2.22 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units) 

Rivalry Week Preview

We have somehow made it to the last week of the regular season without any NFL games being cancelled. Whether that's a good thing or not is a discussion for another day, because it's time for Rivalry Week!

I'll quickly run through each matchup at the bottom, as with a big $50 on the line, everyone has skin in the game this week. But the majority of this week's post will focus on...

Playoff Picture

First things first. If the season ended today, the seeds would be:
1. Weissbard (Best Regular Season Record, AGD Division Champ, Bye)
2. Esco (Levine Division Champ, Bye)
3. Levine (Wild Card 1)
4. AGD (Wild Card 2)
5. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
6. Gutman (NiJo Spot)

Let's look at each team's playoff hopes. For these races, I'm assuming that any one team cannot outscore another team by more than 66.04 points. This is the difference between Bennett and AGD, and keeps the most teams realistically alive this week. I have ordered the teams by likelihood to make the playoffs.

1. Weissbard - Clinched playoffs. Can clinch a bye and Best Overall Record by beating Esco. Cannot fall farther than 4th seed.

2. Esco - Clinched playoffs. Can clinch a bye and Best Overall Record by beating Weissbard. Cannot fall farther than 5th seed.

3. Marco - Can clinch playoffs with a win over Gutman. The only way he misses the playoffs is if he loses to Gutman by more than 12.58 and is also outscored by Barnard by more than 50.78. He can fall anywhere between the 2nd seed and a bye, to out of the playoffs.

4. AGD - Can clinch playoffs with a win over Billy. The only way they miss the playoffs is if they lose to Billy, Barnard beats Ajay, and Barnard outscores AGD by 27.89. In that situation they could avoid elimination if they outscore a losing Levine team by 17.13 and outscore Gutman by 10.33. They can fall anywhere between the 2nd seed and a bye, to out of the playoffs. I only have them ahead of Levine here because their Rivalry Week matchup is far easier.

5. Levine - Can clinch playoffs with a win over Bennett. The only way he misses the playoffs is if he loses to Bennett, Barnard beats Ajay, and Barnard outscores Levine by 45.01. In that situation he could avoid elimination if he is not outscored by a losing AGD team by 17.13, and is not outscored by Gutman by 6.9. He can fall anywhere between the 2nd seed and a bye, to out of the playoffs.

6. Gutman - Has a few paths to the playoffs. If he beats Marco by more than 12.58, he wins the division and clinches a top 5 seed. Even if he loses or doesn't have the margin to pass Marco, he is the leader in the clubhouse for the NiJo spot, with leads of 10.32 over AGD, 38.2 over Barnard. The only way he misses the playoffs is if he is outscored by Barnard by 38.21. Gutman's rise from the dead may seem incredible, but if you've been following this blog closely, you'll remember that I mentioned this all the way back in Week 6 as something in play for a soon-to-be 2-5 Gutman team.

7. Barnard - The most fun situation to discuss. Based on the 66.04 point limit, Barnard cannot pass Esco, and he's not eligible to win Gutman's division, so his only options are the Wild Cards and the NiJo spot. To get a Wild Card he needs to beat Ajay, and outscore a losing AGD team by 27.89, or outscore a losing Levine team by 45.01. To get the NiJo spot, he needs to outscore a losing Marco team by 50.79, or outscore a losing Gutman team by 38.21. Lots of faint hope for Barnard, which means he's basically rooting against the entire league and hoping that trading for Week 13 bye players didn't sink his season.

8. Bennett - This is not as fun as Barnard because it is much simpler and much more unrealistic. To make the playoffs, Bennett needs to beat Levine and outscore a losing AGD team by 66.04. If Bennett has that big of a week, he can theoretically catch Gutman for the NiJo spot or Levine for a Wild Card, but it's more likely that the season gets cancelled than things break Bennett's way.

Everyone else is eliminated, ending my historic four-year playoff streak.

Matchups of the Week:

These matchups will be listed in order of significance, and the "analysis" will also reflect that.

Matchup 1: Alan vs. Zacherman

There are two matchups with absolutely no playoff ramifications, and this gets the bottom spot for reasons I'll discuss in a minute. This matchup will come down to whether or not Lamar and Andrews can play against a porous Dallas defense on Tuesday. Right now it's very up in the air, but I'll lean towards Z anyway because he has better matchups.

Pick: Zacherman

Matchup 2: Joseph vs. Kumpf

Nick has been suspiciously quiet this season, and while paying Barnard was a positive step, I feel like we may start to hear rumblings that he's re-retiring very soon. That would have a ripple effect throughout the league, as AGD's performance has been shockingly different together than apart, so we may be stuck looking for replacements again. As for the matchup, a poor Nick team is missing Brady and Godwin, so a poor Kumpf team should roll.

Pick: Kumpf

Matchup 3: Ajay vs. Barnard

Barnard's playoff situation is very interesting, but the matchup itself isn't as important as him just putting up points. He'll have to do that without the help of Mike Evans and RoJo, with a lot riding on a Chiefs/Broncos game that will likely be on the low-scoring side. Best case scenario here is that Barnard outscores a losing Levine and/or AGD team by the requisite amount, but Ajay has his best game of the season to knock Barnard out of the playoffs anyway.

Pick: Barnard

Matchup 4: AGD vs. Billy

LOTS of playoff implications based on AGD's performance here, but a win is all-but guaranteed. An already abysmal Billy team is missing Dimes and DJ Moore, so even if the Raiders starting RB is switching sides, this matchup should not be close. Though I did say that about AGD last week...

Pick: AGD

Matchup 5: Esco vs. Weissbard

The stakes here are huge for the winner, but the loser is still in good shape. From a playoff perspective anyway, as Esco's team is falling apart in front of our eyes. Keke Coutee is in no way a substitute for a roided up Will Fuller, and between Julio, Swift, and Kamara, I put the over/under at 4 more games this season. On top of all that, Weissbard gets Ekeler back just as Conner gets the Rona. Baby Lily's coronation starts now.

Pick: Weissbard

Matchup 6: Gutman vs. Marco

These two teams improved themselves via trade more than any other teams over the course of the season (possibly related, they both traded with Barnard). Marco loses his Panthers RB stronghold, though Gutman's downgrade from Gronk to Fant may be just as large. This pick to me comes down to the current flex situation. Gutman has likely OROY and legit WR1 Justin Jefferson, Marco has the backup RB for the Bills.

Pick: Gutman

Matchup 7: Bennett vs. Levine

Maybe an unlikely pick for the most important matchup of the week given Bennett's play long-shot status, but Levine is the playoff contender who is most at risk of getting upset, which would potentially cause chaos. He's also listed as the underdog thanks to Robby Anderson's bye and Mixon's continued cursed existence. I like Levine's odds more than ESPN does, as I think the Vikings will ease Dalvin's workload if possible, which would benefit both Thielan and the Minny D. The Herbert/Cam showdown is a nice cherry on top here, and while the Chargers love finding ways to lose, Herbert still throws up numbers.

Pick: Levine

MotW Record: 9-6

Playoff Seed Predictions
1. Weissbard

2. AGD

3. Levine

4. Esco

5. Gutman

6. Marco

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Dolphins (-10) vs. Bengals

Titans (-4) vs. Browns

Raiders (-7) at Jets

Cardinals (+3) vs. Rams

Patriots (+1.5) at Chargers

Packers (-8) vs. Eagles

Steelers (-7) vs. Football Team

Bills (+1) vs. 49ers

Ravens (-7) vs. Cowboys

Last Week: 4-4
2020 Record: 34-32-3 (-2.48 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)