Week 12 Preview

 It's a short week, we're past the trade deadline, and hopefully none of you are perusing the FALAFEL blog on Thanksgiving, so I'll keep this brief. After a quick review of the Playoff Picture, I'll use the obvious gimmick of listing one thing each team can be thankful for this season. Enjoy the long weekend and don't give your families the 'Rona.

Playoff Picture

If the season ended today, the seeds would be:
1. AGD (Best Regular Season Record, AGD Division Champ, Bye)
2. Weissbard (Wild Card 1, Bye)
3. Esco (Levine Division Champ)
4. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
5. Levine (Wild Card 2)
6. Bennett (NiJo Spot)

These last two regular season weeks have the potential for chaos. Seeds 2-6 above all have the same record, and Barnard and I are a game back, so things could shift a lot from week to week. Gutman is 27 points back from the NiJo spot, so he's still alive, but Zacherman is next at 88 points which is where I draw the line for the playoffs. Luckily the schedule gods (Felix at League Lobster) made it so the top 8 teams by record are playing each other this week, which makes for a wildly entertaining Thanksgiving week, and the first expansion of the Matchup of the Week in 2020.

Week 12 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)
Thankful for: Baby Lily. Weiss has a lot to be thankful for this year: the top QB (and fantasy player period), two healthy top 15 RBs plus Ekeler waiting in the wings with Gio as just excess depth, and three top 8 receivers. His TE situation got a one week boost, but now it's back to being his Achilles heel. Either way, the emergence of Dadbard is enough to take the cake here.

2. AGD (Last Week: 3rd)

Thankful for: Baker Mayfield and Cleveland weather. Obscure choices here, but if Baker took a step forward this year and/or it was ever not hailing in Cleveland, Kareem Hunt would not be a borderline RB1 on the season. Instead, Baker regressed and loves to check down, and Cleveland stayed Cleveland, so Hunt may carry this team to the best Regular Season Record award and a bye.

3. Marco (Last Week: 5th)

Thankful for: Russell Wilson. Marco has built a pretty strong team over the course of the season, but before he collected the Panthers backfield and Gibson took the lead back role in DC, he essentially had a one man team in Russ. That carried him to early victories over me and Ajay, which kept him alive to take over Gutman's sad excuse for a division.

4. Esco (Last Week: 2nd)

Thankful for: Touchdowns. All season Esco has put up big numbers, but they have been fueled by absurd TD totals, and relatively minimal yards/receptions. It's carried him to the verge of a bye so far, but regression has been looming all season. We'll see if the season of giving continues to gift Esco with repeated 6-point boosts.

5. Bennett (Last Week: 7th)

Thankful for: Free Agent Auctions. Yes, Dalvin has been great, but if Bennett didn't have Chase Claypool and Nyheim Hines, he would have been eliminated weeks ago. Those two, in addition to James Robinson, Justin Herbert, and Justin Jefferson, have been among the best free agent additions of the year.

6. Gutman (Last Week: 6th)

Thankful for: The NiJo Rule. It took this team awhile to find it's footing, but there's enough talent here to make a late run. That wouldn't be possible without the NiJo slot, as Gut's slow start would have sunk him if he had to make the playoffs on record alone.

7. Barnard (Last Week: 8th)

Thankful for: Patrick Mahomes. Similar to Marco, Barnard was carried early by his QB, which helped make up for a roster that was lacking in other areas. Unlike Marco, Barnard decided to use trades to make his team worse, so he's still basically Mahomes or bust.

8. Levine (Last Week: 4th)

Thankful for: Alan. Without Alan gift-wrapping a top five QB for the immortal Dalton Schultz, Levine's freefall would look even worse. I was hoping the haircut would sink Herbert, but the Jets wouldn't let that happen. Regardless, Thielen might have COVID and Mixon is likely out for the year, so Levine's grip on a playoff spot may be loosening.

9. Kumpf (Last Week: 10th)

Thankful for: Felix at League Lobster. My team is not great. It's not fun. It has a limited ceiling. But through the luck of scheduling, I control my own destiny if I can beat a perpetually underwhelming Barnard team, and a long left for dead Nick team. I could say that my team is just rounding into form and I'm all aboard the Gus Bus, but I'm not delusional about my chances this year.

10. Zacherman (Last Week: 9th)

Thankful for: Davante Adams. Zacherman's team was pretty dependent on the Ravens passing game, which is probably the reason he was eliminated last week. But it's still nice to know that you hit on an expensive pick who is the WR1 on the season despite missing 2.5 games. Adams is current outscoring all other WRs by over 4 points per game. Great draft pick, see you next year.

11. Alan (Last Week: 11th)

12. Ajay (Last Week:12th)

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th) 

Thankful for: These four teams can be thankful that I talked about them last week.

Matchups of the Week: 

Matchup 1: Barnard vs. Kumpf
We start with the two of the worst teams still alive, but this is essentially an elimination game. For me it absolutely is, and while Barnard would still likely be in play for the NiJo slot, he would need to make up some serious ground in Week 13, when he loses Evans and RoJo.
For this week, Barnard has the obvious edge at QB and TE plus RB1 with Chubb taking on the Jags, but outside of that, we're even or I have the advantage. I like having last licks, but considering last licks this week means relying on the Bears passing game, the advantage is negated. When all else fails, bet on Mahomes.

Pick: Barnard

Matchup 2: Esco vs. Marco
The stakes here are not as dire, but the potential reward is larger. The winner here stays in play for a bye as well as the Best Regular Season record prize, and Marco will straight up clinch the division if he wins. The loser is still in pretty good shape based on Points Scored, but will make Week 13 (vs. Weissbard and Gutman respectively) more of a must-win. That means Esco needs this a hell of a lot more than Marco does.
Unfortunately for Esco, half his team is banged up, and while Ben and Hockenson should play, Swift and Julio are a lot more iffy. The other weird factor in this matchup is that more than half of Esco's ideal lineup plays Thursday, while Marco just has his token Washington players. That's going to make this showdown even more disjointed than usual, and unless Esco can take a massive lead into Sunday, he's in trouble. Spoiler alert: He's in trouble.

Pick: Marco

Matchup 3: Bennett vs. Weissbard
Weissbard is in a very similar position to Esco, where one win over the next two weeks will clinch the playoffs given his high point total. Also like Esco, he has two matchups that are not going to be walkovers. Bennett is currently up 20 in the NiJo spot race, so more than anything, he needs to keep putting up 100+. He also has a chance to move up in the standings if Esco and/or Levine loses. Lots of moving parts here.

The highlight of this matchup is the QB showdown, and while Kyler is obviously favored there, if Cam keeps it close, this gets very interesting. Weissbard's RBs are hampered by tough matchups, injuries to their QBs, or both, so Bennett has a huge advantage there, but Weiss makes up for that with his absurd receiver situation. I think this comes down to Claypool and Ebron having big games. They both did it last week, but I can't see lightning striking twice (or 12 times in Claypool's case).

Pick: Weissbard

Matchup 4: AGD vs. Levine

A win for AGD essentially clinches them Best Regular Season Record and a bye, as they get Billy in Rivalry Week, so they would be able to take two weeks off ahead of the Semi-Finals. The much more interesting situation surrounds Levine. After starting 7-0, he has lost four straight and gets AGD and Bennett to end the season. Those are by no means easy wins, so we could potentially see the most epic collapse in FALAFEL history here. He does have a 60 point advantage in the NiJo slot race, so wins and losses may not matter, but heading into the playoffs on a six game losing streak would not make anyone confident about Levine's odds.

This matchup is listed in the MotW section based on the stakes, but not based on the actual matchup. Levine has the walking wounded at RB, and has to hope that David Montgomery can play, which is never a good situation to be in. AGD not only has a better roster, but also great matchups, so I don't think this one is close at all.

Pick: AGD

MotW Record: 7-4

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Lions (+3) vs. Texans

Football Team (+3) at Cowboys

Dolphins (-7) at Jets

Raiders (-3) at Falcons

Colts (-3) vs. Titans

Bucs (+3.5) vs. Chiefs

Bears (+8) at Packers

Last Week: 3-2
2020 Record: 30-28-3 (-2.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units) 

Week 11 Preview

With the Trade Deadline coming up Friday, there are still several questions looming over the league. Can Weissbard runaway with the #1 seed? Will over-performing teams like Bennett, Barnard, and myself make an actual playoff push? Can Gutman stay alive long enough to defend his title? Will Esco con anyone into taking RoJo?

So while the offline chatter is all about trade negotiations, and next week we will focus entirely on the playoff races, this week we can take some time to look at the teams that are out of it, and figure out what went wrong. Considering a whopping 9 of our 14 teams are .500 or better (and Gutman has an outside shot at the NiJo spot), this deep dive will focus only on the teams that don't really have a shot at the playoffs even if they win out, starting with the most obvious failure in FALAFEL history.

Billy
What went wrong?
For better parts of the last decade, Billy has held firm to the strategy of drafting two highly priced RBs and hoping to get lucky with injuries and depth. It has paid off enough to get him a chef's coat, but it's definitely a boom/bust strategy. This year he went bigger than ever, taking the consensus top two RBs in Saquon and CMC, but the luck factor took a turn early when they both got injured for essentially the entire fantasy season. His depth amounted to DJ Moore, Marvin Jones, and Jared Cook, which I didn't hate at the time, but they have all failed to live up to even modest expectations. Joe Burrow was a nice $1 pick, but there was really no other value in the draft. Combine that with an abysmal CMC trade return, and this was just a nightmare season. Even your potential silver lining of beating me after getting 40 fucking points from Devontae Booker and Rex Burkhead fell short when Foles and Jimmy Graham got outscored by Allen Robinson.
What could he have done differently?
Outside of "not spending $145 on two players", I think you should think about investing in some handcuffs. That would have hurt your ceiling elsewhere, and likely still wouldn't have given you a shot at the playoffs, but it would have made the season a little less brutal.

Nick
What went wrong?
Unlike Billy, Nick drafted a team that balanced high end talent and depth, which made him one of my favorites coming out of the draft. However, like Billy, injuries killed him. Godwin, Mostert, and A.J. Brown were never healthy at the same time, and depth pieces that did stay healthy like Jarvis Landry and James White were total busts. Even now, a core of Brady/CEH/Moster/Brown/Godwin is average or better in this league, but somehow Nick is 1-9.
What could he have done differently?
Throughout the season I preached patience for this team, with the thought that when it got healthy, it would make moves toward the NiJo spot. Unfortunately it never got healthy. So in hindsight, an early trade for an RB2 would have made sense, as that position has been cripplingly bad most of the season.

Ajay
What went wrong?
Another combination of injuries and ineffectiveness. Ajay got next to nothing from Courtland Sutton, one big week from Kittle, and random good games from Carson, but the bigger issues have been Kenyan Drake and JuJu. Those guys were healthy enough to start, but rarely produced at the level commensurate with their draft cost. Just a Murphy's Law season all around.
What could he have done differently?
The answer here is probably "drafted better players", but that can be said for any disappointing team. Trading Kittle when he first got hurt would have helped, but similar to the other teams here, this team never really had a chance.

Alan
What went wrong?
Michael Thomas was straight bad luck, but Alan dropped $18 on Cam Akers, who responded with 21.9 points for the entire season, despite only missing two games. That may go down as the worst draft pick of the season when it comes to just lack of production unrelated to injury. His TE draft debacle also didn't help, though Goedert showed flashes at time.
What could he have done differently?
Spending those 18 Akers dollars elsewhere would have been a good start, as well as trading Thomas early, but the biggest issue is that Alan got off to a good start that was clearly fool's gold, so he didn't make any moves. Josh Allen and Aaron Jones were great picks, but this team missing the playoffs can come down to complacency. Thank god we don't have to put a team name that came from a random GroupMe like on an oven mitt.

And with that, we say goodbye to those teams.

Playoff Picture

If the season ended today (pending Week 10 Stat Corrections), the seeds would be:
1. Weissbard (AGD Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record, Bye)
2. Esco (Levine Division Champ, Bye)
3. Levine (Wild Card 1)
4. AGD (Wild Card 2)
5. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
6. Bennett (NiJo Spot)

Barnard, Zacherman, and myself are all a game out of playoff spots (requiring tiebreakers), and Gutman is also within 60 of the NiJo spot, so that rounds out the teams that are still alive. Zacherman and I are playing a de facto elimination game, and Gutman needs to start gaining ground quickly, so this group could be pared down further as soon as next week.

Trade Grade 13
Barnard receives Mike Evans, Ronald Jones, and Rams D/ST
Esco receives Julio Jones and Boston Scott
Fucking Barnard. He "upgraded" from Melvin Gordon to RoJo at RB2 which I would argue is essentially the same thing, while going from a top 5 WR to a WR20ish and I guess adding a D/ST. He also loses both Evans and RoJo for Week 13, so he basically guaranteed himself a loss there.
Esco, essentially did the exact opposite, and with Swift getting a starting RB workload, it's a good bit of business. I already had him in 2nd below, so no real change there, but Weissbard vs. Esco Week 13 looks a lot like a Regular Season Championship Game.
Grades:
Barnard: C-
Esco: A

Trade Grade 14
Gutman receives Brandon Aiyuk and Steelers D/ST
Kumpf receives DeVante Parker and Dolphins D/ST
So this is the trade that vaults Gutman and/or Kumpf into playoff contention? I don't see it. Even after the trade neither team is favored in their must-win matchups this week.

I like this trade slightly more for Gutman because Aiyuk is the most talented here and Gutman can absorb the bye week with his current lineup. DeVante seems to have taken a back seat in terms of targets and priority since Tua came on the stage. The potential argument in Kumpf's favor is that the Dolphins have three extremely winnable games in a row where the coaches might take the training wheels off of Tua and the defense should be able to rack up some significant points. But not since the Barndog Pats D/ST days has a defense carried a team to victory. So while I was forced to write about this trade for the blog, I doubt we will speak of it ever again.
Grades:
Gutman: B-
Kumpf: B-

Week 11 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)

2. Esco (Last Week: 5th)

3. AGD (Last Week: 4th)

4. Levine (Last Week: 2nd)

5. Marco (Last Week: 3rd)

6. Gutman (Last Week: 6th)

7. Bennett (Last Week: 9th)

8. Barnard (Last Week: 7th)

9. Zacherman (Last Week: 8th)

10. Kumpf (Last Week: 10th)

11. Alan (Last Week: 11th)

12. Ajay (Last Week:13th)

13. Nick (Last Week: 12th)

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Weissbard aka The AGD Division Championship Game

The most obvious pick of the year. The stakes are high, as the winner takes a one-game lead in the division, and if Weissbard wins, it's essential two games given his point total. The loser is still in the thick of it, but would be one more loss away from being very nervous.

As for the matchup itself, the Giants bye has a weirdly outsized impact this week, leading to guys like Kalen Ballage, Logan Thomas, and the Chargers D playing key roles in this showdown, not to mention Antonio Brown and potential league-winner Jakobi Meyers. AGD's massive advantage is Kelce as always, but I'm not a huge fan of the rest of his matchups. Weissbard's squad has more question marks, but Kyler and Nuk could easily break 60 against Seattle, so I'm not betting against Dadbard. Looks like he's gonna have to adopt Reap.

Pick: Weissbard

MotW Record: 7-3

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Saints (-3) vs. Falcons

Bengals (-1) at Football Team

Steelers (-10) at Jaguars

Chiefs (-7) at Raiders

Rams (+4.5) at Bucs

Last Week: 4-2
2020 Record: 27-26-3 (-2.52 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units) 

Week 10/Trade Deadline Preview

It's that time again! Time for my favorite post of the season, the Trade Deadline Preview. The deadline in this league is next Friday, so I'm giving everyone a week to make their final playoff pushes or solidify their starting lineups. But first we have a real trade to deal with:

Trade Grade 12
Ajay receives Leonard Fournette and Carson Wentz
Marco receives Mike Davis
This is a very situational trade. Ajay needs a QB with Matty Ice on bye and Marco benefits from Davis's unclear role more than anyone else in the league. Throw in Fat Lenny, and we have a deal that makes sense for both sides. 

On the surface, Ajay gets a hell of a lot more value here. Wentz is about the same level as Ryan, so he can stream based on matchups, and Fournette is a solid Flex option when Drake and Carson are healthy, and a decent replacement when they're not. Mike Davis has shown that he's a high-end handcuff, and Marco has eyes on a Chef's Coat, so cuffing CMC is a must. He also didn't need Wentz, so while Ajay benefitted from that aspect, Marco wasn't really hurt. I'll give Ajay the slight edge in a win-win trade.
Grades:
Ajay: B+
Marco: B
Note: Grades applied at the time of the trade, so CMC being questionable (but not ruled out) for this week was the latest news.

Playoff Picture

If the season ended today, the seeds would be:
1. Levine (Levine Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record, Bye)
2. Weissbard (AGD Division Champ, Bye)
3. Esco (Wild Card 1)
4. AGD (Wild Card 2)
5. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
6. Bennett (NiJo Spot)

Bennett is currently beating Barnard by 0.54 points for the NiJo Spot, and after some duds last week, the only other teams really in play are Zacherman and Gutman. The race for the second bye is also tight, as we have 5 teams tied at 6-3.

Mock Trades
As always, I've put together a mock trade for each team. Some of these make more sense that others, but hopefully it gets people at least talking so we can push the total trade number towards 20 this year.

Mock Trade 1
Ajay receives Chase Edmonds and David Montgomery
Levine receives Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde
A few of these mock trades will have the same theme: contending teams trading for injured players and teams barely hanging on trading for short term help. This trade gives Levine a higher ceiling RB group at the expense of some of his depth, while Ajay corners the Arizona RB situation and picks up another low-end RB2/Flex option at the same time.

Mock Trade 2
Bennett receives Joe Burrow, Corey Davis, and Ravens D/ST
Billy receives Cam Newton, Jamaal Williams, and Michael Gallup
It is admittedly hard to find a trade with Billy involved because he has the absolute worst roster in FALAFEL history (though he will likely beat me this week). His only relative strengths are Burrow and the Ravens D, but Burrow doesn't provide a clear upgrade to anyone but maaaaybe Bennett. That leaves us here, with Bennett upgrading at QB and DST without really hurting his starting lineup. Billy's only real goal should be Weekly High Score and Rivalry Week prizes, so Cam and Gallup provide random upside, and Jamaal would be an RB1 if Jones gets hurt again. Moving on!

Mock Trade 3
Kumpf receives A.J. Brown, Raheem Mostert, and Jeff Wilson
Nick receives Todd Gurley, Brian Hill, and Diontae Johnson
Nick is in a similar situation to Billy, where his goal is just increase his upside in random weeks, especially Week 13 (This is all a moot point if he doesn't pay Barnard). I am in the opposite situation, where I need wins wherever I can get them to keep a completely undeserved playoff push alive. This gives Nick a huge boost at RB, and does the same to me at WR, where we can both rely on our depth to fill in the gaps.

Mock Trade 4
Esco receives J.K. Dobbins, Sony Michel, and Robert Woods
Gutman receives, D'Andre Swift, Adrian Peterson, and Mike Evans
I think we can all agree that Esco is not going to be able to unload RoJo, so his best path at an upgrade is to package the Lions RBs with a WR. In this case, he gets a high upside RB in Dobbins, while upgrading his reliability at receiver. Gutman solidifies his RB2 situation, and his absurd WR depth allows him to take a flier on Evans rebounding before the end of the season.

Mock Trade 5
AGD receives Jonathan Taylor and Davante Adams
Zacherman receives Kareem Hunt and Tyler Lockett
Blockbuster alert! As I've said all year, AGD's discrepancy between amazing starting lineup and terrible depth makes trades very difficult, however this one may help both teams. Z has been riding high on Adams, while Taylor has disappointed, but you have to assume both players revert to the mean at some point. AGD has benefitted from Chubb's injury, but they have to be concerned about his workload moving forward. This trade alleviates regression/workload concerns on both sides, while giving Z more RB upside and AGD the WR1 moving forward.

Mock Trade 6
Alan receives Melvin Gordon, Royce Freeman, and Darren Waller
Barnard receives J.D. McKissic, Michael Thomas, and Dallas Goedert
None of these trades are likely to happen as written, but this one will NEVER happen given the parties involved. Both rosters are hilariously top heavy, but this trade gives Alan an RB2 for the first time all season, while finally solidifying his TE position. Barnard would be in a bad way at RB2, but he should be used to that at this point, and the Julio/Thomas WR duo would be super fun down the stretch. If this is even a possibility, I would pay $20 to watch the trade negotiations.

Mock Trade 7
Marco receives James Conner, Benny Snell, and Stefon Diggs
Weissbard receives Christian McCaffrey, Mike Davis, and Tee Higgins
Another trade between these two? Honestly, they were the last two teams left, so I had to find something between them, but this isn't terrible. Weissbard is the top team right now, and this would raise his ceiling even further. Marco is still fighting for playoff positioning, so he upgrades his flex and doesn't have to worry about CMC's health down the stretch. If anyone would make a move like this, it's Marco, but I'm not sure if Dadbard has the focus to pull off something like this.

Week 10 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 1st)

2. Levine (Last Week: 2nd)

3. Marco (Last Week: 3rd)

4. AGD (Last Week: 4th)

5. Esco (Last Week: 6th)

6. Gutman (Last Week: 7th)

7. Barnard (Last Week: 8th)

8. Zacherman (Last Week: 5th)

9. Bennett (Last Week: 10th)

10. Kumpf (Last Week: 9th)

11. Alan (Last Week: 12th)

12. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

13. Ajay (Last Week:11th)

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Bennett

Another week with multiple huge matchups, including a Gutman/Z divisional battle and Barnard trying to keep hope alive against a surging Marco team. But AGD and Bennett are both 6-3, so the winner essentially clinches a playoff spot while the loser falls into the battle for the NiJo slot.

This is a big bye week across the league, and AGD losing Kelce is an enormous loss. If Golladay doesn't play as well, AGD is severely undermanned here, and despite Jakobi Meyers saving the day last week, I don't see a repeat performance coming. Bennett should get a boost with Sanders coming back, and while Dalvin is obviously a must-start, the Bears are a tough matchup. I don't see a huge edge here either way, but Bennett's team has more upside overall, while AGD needs Watson to break 30.

Pick: Bennett

MotW Record: 7-2

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

Bucs (-6) at Panthers

Dolphins (-1.5) vs. Chargers

Bills (+3) at Cardinals

Seahawks (+1.5) at Rams

Steelers (-6.5) vs. Bengals

Bears (+3) vs. Vikings

Last Week: 1-4-1
2020 Record: 23-24-3 (-3.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)

Week 9 Preview

Another week, another flurry of absurd scores. Week 8 was led by Dalvin Cook, but Mahomes and Metcalf also broke the 30 point barrier, with Russ and Davante Adams not far behind. As I've said repeatedly, having as many of these guys as possible is the key to making the playoffs this year, and also means that no team is unbeatable. Levine and Weissbard look like a pretty clear top two, but there are a lot of teams below them that can put up huge points in any given week. That makes getting a bye extremely important, as winning three straight playoff games will be more difficult in this scoring (and COVID) environment than ever before.

With that in mind, let's take a look at where things stand:

Playoff Picture

If the season ended today, the seeds would be:
1. Levine (Levine Division Champ, Bye, Best Overall Record)
2. Esco (Wild Card 1, Bye)
3. Weissbard (AGD Division Champ)
4. Barnard?!?! (Wild Card 2)
5. Marco (Gutman Division Champ)
6. AGD (NiJo Spot)

This is the most fun situation, as I expect Marco to separate himself in the Gutman Division now that CMC is back, so the race for the NiJo spot keeps six teams in play. Barnard as the four seed (and fifth most points) is the true shocker, but he also may not win another game even with Chubb coming back.

Week 9 Power Rankings

1. Weissbard (Last Week: 2nd)

Putting up 125 with Kyler, Hopkins and potential league-winner James Robinson on bye is extremely impressive. Doing it with your replacement QB not breaking 8 points is enough to take over the top spot once again.

2. Levine (Last Week: 1st)

The Russian is cut! No one has gone undefeated in the regular season since the Cortesian pre-FALAFEL days, and this dream season was bound to hit a speed bump at some point. The fact you lasted this long after losing Dak and Mixon was crazy enough, and if anything having your entire team shit the bed at the same time isn't the worst case scenario.

3. Marco (Last Week: 5th)

Losing to Billy after trade raping him would have been poetic, but Russ refused to let that happen. Will be very interesting to see how CMC looks, but if he returns to 2019 form, you potentially have the top two players in fantasy right now.

4. AGD (Last Week: 3rd)

That one hurt. With the chance to keep your division lead, you lost to an Alan team starting three players on the Jersey teams. Between the weather in Cleveland, byes, and mid-game injuries, this was a Murphy's Law game, but as mentioned your team could not afford an injury to a core player and Golladay will be difficult to replace.

5. Zacherman (Last Week: 4th)

The schedule gods smiled on you this week, as a loss would have been devastating heading into this week's showdown. On the plus side, Davante looked really good and Scary Terry is off bye. On the down side, all of your RBs appear to be injured and Lamar isn't the same this year.

6. Esco (Last Week: 6th)

Kamara and Evans showed up, but difficult matchups proved to be too much for the rest of your squad and you blew the chance at taking over the top seed. Your team continues to confuse me, as your Bucs should theoretically be headed in the wrong direction due to AB and Fat Lenny asking for touches, but your Lions may make up for that with Golladay's injury. I have a feeling you will stay in 6th for the rest of the season no matter what.

7. Gutman (Last Week: 8th)

There he is! The trades finally paid off, as Rodgers looked to be in MVP form, Metcalf continues to ruin Barnard's life, and Rob Woods made us all smile. Dobbins even had a good day on your bench, so there was no way to lose. This team is an RB2 away from jumping into the top four.

8. Barnard (Last Week: 10th)

Last week was a huge win for your playoff hopes, and while you did break 100, your fantasy "defense" is still pretty insane. Your opponents have scored the same amount of points as Billy's team this year (somehow Alan and Esco's opponents have scored less than that), and this week you get Nick. You probably need to win 3 of your last 5 to feel comfortable, and with Chubb coming back, it's still in play. I can't wait to see how you fuck it up.

9. Kumpf (Last Week: 7th)

My team has averaged 94 points per week, but if you asked anyone in this league (myself included) if my team has ever broken 100, I think we would all say no. What a forgettable season. Zeke and Gurley on the block. (and I've broken 100 three times)

10. Bennett (Last Week: 11th)

You will likely be the only team in ESPN Fantasy that misses the playoffs with Dalvin Cook. Some of that is bad luck from an injury/COVID perspective, but losses to Billy, Gutman and me really hurt. You have the toughest schedule left in the league, so it would be a huge upset if you went on a run at this point.

11. Ajay (Last Week: 9th)

The Mike Davis Experience comes to an end this week, and while Damien Harris appears to be RB1 in New England for the moment, I'm not sure how valuable that is. I put your team as the last one still alive for the NiJo slot, so wins and losses mean a lot less than just scoring points moving forward. So... score points I guess?

12. Alan (Last Week: 12th)

The exception to the rule this season. Josh Allen, Aaron Jones, and Michael Thomas should theoretically be the 30-point studs that you need to compete for the playoffs. Instead, Allen has fizzled while Jones and Thomas have struggled to stay healthy. Your "defense" somehow has you just a game back in the division, but you need an injury miracle to stay in that race. Might be worth looking to trade Thomas to a team with a more settled playoff spot to keep your season alive.

13. Nick (Last Week: 13th)

The NiJo spot was your only real hope at the playoffs, but last week may have sunk that ship. You now need to make up 16 points per game on AGD, with five other teams to pass as well. Your toughest decision will be whether to pay Barnard or pull a Donny and retire in disgrace.

14. Billy (Last Week: 14th)

Your CMC trade for depth while he was injured netted you a total of...zero wins. Avoiding the Shot Spot is really the only motivation at this point.

Matchup of the Week: Marco vs. Zacherman

Most weeks this season, picking the MotW has been a slog. The best teams have beaten up on the worst, and we haven't really had many showdowns or playoff previews. That changed this week, with several options for this spot. But the Grandaddy of them all is the de facto Division Championship game between Marco and Z. Because Marco has a 30 point lead on Z, everyone in contention for the NiJo slot should be pulling for him to take the division lead.

The actual matchup should align well with everyone's rooting interest. Z's path to victory will require Lamar, JTT, and Andrews to put up 60+ against their opposing defenses, which does not seem very likely, especially if Taylor is limited. On top of that, Marco has some pretty nice matchups, and even if CMC doesn't get a full workload, I'm forecasting Marco to win big. It's not like anyone ever goes wrong by betting on the Hispanics to come through right?

Pick: Marco
MotW Record: 6-2

Gambling Corner

NFL Bets

49ers (+7) vs. Packers

Chiefs (-10) vs. Panthers

Bear (+7) at Titans

Lions (+4) at Vikings

Dolphins (+6) at Cardinals

Charger (+2.5) vs. Raiders

Last Week: 3-2
2020 Record: 22-20-2 (-0.85 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.40% (+18.83 units)