Thursday, December 14, 2017

Semifinal Preview

Without doing any research, I can confidently say that this was the closest playoff round in FALAFEL history. It had unlikely success stories (Trey Fucking Burton), massive disappointments (Mike Evans/Emmanuel Sanders), along with some expected performances (my continued Marvin Lewis impersonation, Levine's "better late than never" domination). We're now at the final four, and it includes the four strongest teams based on points scored. There will be no asterisk on this chef's coat/hat.

Matchup 1: 1) Zacherman vs. 4) Levine

Quarterback
On paper, Russ vs. Brees is a battle of heavyweights, but this has been an interesting year for both. Russ has no offensive line or running game, and has somehow translated that into being a world destroyer as the #1 overall QB. Brees finally has a defense and running game, and has quietly turned into Alex Smith. Both are facing schizophrenic defenses in the Rams and Jets, but I'd be dumb to go against Russ at this point.
Edge: Levine

Runningback
The breakdown of points between Brees, Ingram and Kamara will determine the outcome of this matchup. Kamara has been the most dynamic player in fantasy this year, and when he catches a TD,  Zacherman gets 15 points. However, he's coming off a concussion and facing a Jets team that won't be competitive after the first quarter, so this sounds like an Ingram game to me. McKinnon has the potential to keep it close with a nice matchup, but Levine can counter that with Kareem Hunt. A week from now, Zeke changes the conversation, but Z has to make it there first.
Edge: Levine

Wide Receiver
A.J. Green is a great player. But he's facing a shutdown corner against the Vikings, and Zacherman is flanking him with a pupu platter of barely startable WR3s. On the other side, Levine has the literal fucking Avengers in Nuk, Keenan and Flash.
Big Edge: Levine

Tight End
After my Trey Burton nightmare last week, I'm about ready to send the Tight End position the way of the Kicker. But while we still start these random assholes, there is still a clear top tier and Gronk is part of it when he's healthy and not suspended. Doesn't matter who Levine starts here, though an Olsen resurgence would only add fuel to his unstoppable machine.
Big Edge: Zacherman

D/ST
Neither team is dominant here, so the performance will likely depends on which offense is more pathetic, the Jets or the Cards. Not a huge edge here, but I'm not one to bet against Bryce Petty's awfulness.
Slight Edge: Levine

Overall
Zacherman's insane run of weekly top scores this year was truly impressive. Even after losing Zeke, he was not only competitive, but often dominant. But the danger of bidding on Zeke during the draft was that you were only guaranteed to have him for 6 games, barring a deep playoff run. Zacherman made the playoff run, but it's going to end one week before Zeke can save him.
Pick: Levine


Matchup 2: 2) Marco vs. 6) Esco AKA The Battles of Casas Grandes Dos

Quarterback
Both owners here have tough decisions. Marco's Mariota has a much better matchup, but his inconsistency is terrifying. Meanwhile, Alex Smith seems likely to check down constantly against the Charger pass rush. On Esco's side, Matty Ice nearly cost him the win last week, but gets a nice Bucs matchup this week, on MNF no less. Keenum is also set up for success, but I don't know if I would want "Starting Case Keenum kept me out of the Stevens Bowl" to be on the table.
Edge: Esco

Runningback
Lots of interesting situations here, none of which seems to benefit Marco. If Coleman is truly concussed, Marco only has one legitimate RB, albeit one who turns into a god in the snow. Esco looks primed to benefit, with Freeman (on MNF) getting more carries, Lamar Miller potentially rebounding against the mediocre Jags run defense, and the immortal Rod Smith getting to feast on Oakland.
Edge: Esco

Wide Receiver
If Marco is going to win, it's going to be here. Esco's group is fine, with Reek and Tate doing just enough each week to keep him in contention. But Marco has a trio of studs who are capable of putting up 60 on their own.
Edge: Marco

Tight End
With Zach Ertz cleared of concussion protocol, the Trey Fucking Burton experience looks set to end after one week (and continues the tradition of a player having the best game of their career when facing me in the playoffs). That leaves Esco scrambling, and opens up the delicious possibility of Marcedes "Chicken Wing" Lewis starting in a FALAFEL playoff matchup in 2017. Against all odds, Marco has an advantage in Jason Witten, albeit a small one.
Slight Edge: Marco

D/ST
Similar to the TE matchup, there's not a lot to love here. I assume there still might be moves made, but as it stands I can't pick a winner among the mediocrity.
Edge: Even

Overall
This is a tough one. Marco turned the blacked out roster that he drafted into a serious contender (with a huge assist from Gutman), but the Coleman injury is a huge issue, especially given that the game is on Monday (the fact that Esco didn't previously add Terron Ward is potentially a huge mistake). I think that even if he's active, Atlanta limits Coleman's touches, with Freeman benefiting. And that edge is enough to stick with Esco for one more week.
Pick: Esco

Matchup Predictions: 10-5 (8 game winning streak)

Gambling Corner

NFL Week 15 Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 110th out of 19,336: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
Colts (+3) vs. Broncos
Chiefs (+2) vs. Chargers
Ravens (-7) at Browns
Steelers (+3) vs. Patriots
Last Week: 4-1
2017 Record: 37-25

NCAA Week 1 Bowl Bets
North Carolina A&T (-7) vs. Grambling State
North Texas (+7) vs. Troy
Georgia State (+7) vs. Western Kentucky
Boise State (+8) vs. Oregon
Marshall (+6) vs. Colorado State
Arkansas State (-3) vs. Middle Tennessee
Akron (+23) vs. Florida International
SMU (-5) vs. Louisiana Tech
Florida International (+7) vs. Temple
Ohio (-7) vs. UAB
Wyoming (-1 ) vs. Central Michigan
Last Week: 2-2-2
2017 Record: 29-23-6

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