14th Annual FALAFEL Draft Location Madness - Sweet 16 Voting

 

Almost an entirely chalk first round, which is not entirely surprising. If anything the 7-seeds had a better showing than usual. Not sure if that's a reflection of the 2 seeds or what, but this week we have some real contests. The 1950's Northeast Family of 4 Dream (Jersey Shore vs. Poconos), Four potential repeat cities, and some classic also rans. I believe this is the first time Philly has made the second round, but everyone else has been here before.

14th Annual FALAFEL Draft Location Madness - The Bracket

 

Fun bracket this year. There are some prevailing themes to the regions, some random locations (Lesotho was the first team out), and a decent chance for a repeat location for the first time since Ithaca '10. 

• People seem pretty set on going down the shore, not sure if that's to put Esco in a weird spot or not, but I don't see anything stopping the Shore from the Final 4. 
• New Orleans has a tough road. I would have put it as the favorite pre-bracket, but taking down perennial contenders Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Vegas just to get to the Final 4 is daunting. 
• Similar to the Shore, I can't see Minny falling short before the semis. Lake house, not too hot, casino, maybe a soccer game? Seems like the prototypical draft spot.
• I have no idea what to make of the bottom left. Pitt is a 1 seed for what must be the 10th year in a row, but it only takes one person pointing out the Airbnb situation for Charleston to pull an second round upset. Portland, ME had a weird amount of support, so that's my Final 4 pick from that region.

Stevens Bowl XVI Preview

 I know this is coming out after the week has already started, but it's not my fault the NFL doesn't care enough about hyper-specific fantasy football blogs with intermittent posts. Better late than never, and I wouldn't want to deprive Nick of his first Stevens Bowl Preview.

Before we get to the breakdown, I am changing one of my favorite traditions. Fifteen years of Elf Yourself seems like enough, and technology has improved, so we're now enlisting AI for help.

NIJO! ALAN! IT'S THE STEVENS BOWL XVI!

For those who could not view the image:

I can't wait until video AI gets mature and free enough to create some deepfake porn as the preview. Belfer, I will need your help.

STEVENS BOWL XVI Preview: Nick vs. Alan

Note: I am doing this preview as if the Christmas games had not yet occurred, and we did not know that CD is out for the year.

Quarterbacks:
If you had Darnold vs. Purdy as the Stevens Bowl QB matchup, you should probably be in the Stevens Bowl. Darnold has had the better season, has the better weapons, and is playing indoors. Purdy gets to be the MNF hammer. I can't trust Darnold enough to pick him here, so I'll take the copout.
Edge: Even

Runningbacks:
Cook vs. Henry is the heavyweight battle here, but the matchup could easily be decided by the lower card of Hunt/Jones vs. Swift/ETN. I hated when Alan traded for Hunt, and I really hate ETN, so it comes down to Jones vs. Swift for me. I am way less afraid to pick against Jones than I am Darnold, so despite Swift getting more action in the passing game lately, I'll go with Alan.
Slight Edge: Alan

Wide Receivers:
Another heavyweight battle between CD and AJB, but the undercard here is really interesting. BTJ has been an absolute stud this year, even with the Jags being miserable to watch.. Tennessee is a meh matchup, but I expect him to clear 10 points easily. Jameson Williams, as always, is the true wild card. Goose Egg? In play. 200 Yards and 3 TDS? Also in Play. I don't love the big game odds for Jameson outdoors in San Fran in late December, so I'll go with Nick here.
Edge: Nick (Note: This is now a Big Edge with CD hurt.)

Tight Ends:
A total wasteland of a position this year outside of Kittle and Bowers, the Stevens Bowl brings us the immortal matchup of Tucker Kraft vs. Chig Okonkwo. I honestly could care less.
Edge: Even

D/ST:
Alan has been riding the Chiefs for all season and they've been more average than great, but I do like them outside in Pitt with Russ being forced to throw. I expect at least one defensive TD there. Nick has played the streaming game and now gets to feast on Caleb outside in Chicago at night. I don't feel like Seattle's D is anything special, but the matchup is certainly nice.
Edge: Even

Overall:
For the first time ever, Nick has all kinds of karma on his side. The number one reason to root for Alan is to make it difficult for me to find a different personalized chef uniform item. Not a bad reason, but St. Nick has better ones. Before CD got hurt, I was tempted to pick Alan, but now I really have no choice but to #Kurse Nick and his overreliance on the Tennessee/Jacksonville game.
Pick: Nick

Guest Blog: Shot Spot Prediction

 (Editor's Note: Today's guest blog is from Mr. First-or-Last Mike Honcho himself, Weissbard.)

A few weeks ago, shot spot seemed like a guarantee for me. A few triumphant wins later and suddenly there's 4 potential shot spotters in play with 3 games left (kumpf, marco, and gutman technically have the same record as Billy but his points scored is so putrid I'm leaving the 3 of them out and only including Billy as the 4-7 team). I'm in the most precarious position, but stranger things have happened (like me having a chef's hat but consistently being a top 3 division draft pick. Maybe you're all just haters)

Potential Shot Spotters:

Weissbard

The current favorite and potential to be the first person in FALAFEL history to repeat as shot spot. 2nd lowest points scored isn't great and I probably have the most difficult schedule remaining with Marco fighting for this playoff life, Alan holding onto his playoff life, and Ajay looking for the bye. Realistically, I need to win 2 of 3 remaining games because even if Barnard or Levine drops a game, my points scored is very, very bad. Maybe historically bad (though Billy is worse and we'll get to that). The jets on a bye means another week of playing McLaughlin (enter a sarah mclachlan sad song joke here) vs Marco and with a loss to Ajay pretty much guaranteed (gg Ajay grats on the playoffs) things aren't looking good for me.

Billy

My best shot at avoiding the shot spot is Billy to lose out. Realistically, the man who skips his wife's birthday every year for the draft will be doing the shots regardless because he's there for a good time. But it would be nice to have it mandated so I can skip out on it. Billy's worst in the league in points scored and 6th in points against including wins with 81 points and 70 points. He plays a hot AGD (we've been calling them this for so long a re-watch of the name origins is well worth it. Also I grabbed dinner with them last week and can confirm they live next door and the baby monitors work in each other's living rooms so they can hang while the babies sleep), and then a struggling Levine and Barndog. For some reason, Levine feels dangerous (in fantasy, not IRL), and barnard seems like an easy win, but Levine is bottom of the barrel for points and Barnard is 7th. I wouldn't be surprised if Billy lost all 3 games but expect my team to do the same (grats again on #1 seed Ajay gg)

Levine

SRL (are those just Steve's initials? Is that a worse team name than "ajay" or "ajayajay") is only 1 game ahead of me for last place and shockingly only 87 points ahead of me in points scored. My team has only scored more than 87 points 3 times this season so that's a pretty insurmountable gap to make up, but the way my season has been going even being in the same realm as my points wise means you're not doing great. Levine has huge shot spot implications the next 2 weeks with games vs Barnard and Billy and then a season finale vs BMO where Mejia will forego any new father duties to insult Levine for the week/maybe golf with him. 1 win should be enough to keep him safe though and he should at least get that.

Barndogs

Lots of hype in mainstream media with Putin Esco pumping up his popularity only for everyone to realize he's only a game ahead of me. A lot can happen in 3 weeks but I think everyone can agree seeing these standings when sorted by points scored is hilarious. "Ok 2nd place is 1st in points scored that sounds about right. 3rd is 4th, seeing a pattern here for the most pa- wtf who is that in 12th place?"

Having the most points against you will do that and I'm sure if Barnard's gambling losses write offs weren't distracting him, he'd be much saltier than usual. A remaining schedule of Levine, Esco, and Billy, should result in 2 wins. But I'm assuming Levine will drop 175 on him, Esco will drop 65 on him as his team scores 64.7, and then Billy and Barnard will tie. Not at halftime though (inside joke, you had to be there to get it)

Final predictions:

Last place - Weissbard

2nd to last but still doing shots anyway - Billy

(Ed: I agree with almost all of this, other than Gutman not being at risk of back to back shot spots himself.)

Trade Grades 9 & 10

 This one was a little delayed because I falsely assumed some more dominos would fall following Esco's statement of intent. However the rest of the contenders stood pat, so I'm left with two trades that I will grade collectively as one.

Trade Grades 9 & 10
Esco receives Josh Allen, Isaiah Pacheco, and Mike Evans
Gutman receives Rico Dowdle and Courtland Sutton
Kumpf receives C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins

While not exactly a three team trade, Esco's two deals are related and would be weird to grade on their own. 

From Esco's perspective, the goal is clear: Win the Stevens Bowl. His roster was pretty set already, other than a hole at QB, and now he has the best starting lineup in the league. His only potential issue is injuries. Pacheco is no sure thing to return to form, Evans pulled a hamstring while I typed this sentence, and while Josh Allen seems to be superhuman, he takes a lot of hits. Add that to Kittle's issues and historical problems with Chase and Watson, and Esco is now one or two ankle turns away from collapse. It was a clear move to make on his part, but it's not without risk. Bonus points here from boxing Nick out of a three-way trade.

Gutman was in no man's land before this trade, and remains there afterwards. His best path to the playoffs is probably the NiJo Spot? So trading upside pieces in Evans and Pacheco for boring starters wasn't probably the best approach, but he went from very unlikely to make the playoffs to... very unlikely to make the playoffs. No harm no foul I guess?

My season has been lost for a few weeks now (I was 3-0! I miss September). Josh was really my only trade piece and I think I did well to get Nico with the upside potential of a Stroud connection. I doubt it makes much of a difference either way, and honestly scooping up Richardson was probably the more impactful move I made last week, but my roster is better than it was a week ago.

From a Power Rankings perspective, this trade moves Esco further into 1st place, drops Gutman from 12th to 14th, and keeps me at 10th.

Grades:
Esco: B+
Gutman: D
Kumpf: B