Stevens Bowl XIV Preview

It's been a relatively quiet year on the blog for a number of reasons, but that won't stop me from putting together a last minute preview for one of the more unlikely Stevens Bowls in recent memory. While this season will always be remembered for an epic Barnard collapse, that doesn't really separate it from a number of other years, so let's focus on the question of which testicular team name will end up on a piece of chef's clothing.

Alan! Mejia! Margot! Bennett! It's the Stevens Bowl XIV!

Before jumping into the preview, let's take a look at how these teams were evaluated post-draft AKA the last time this blog got any traffic:

Alan was given a C+, tied for the 7th best grade. I was a fan of his Fat Lenny pick, and while that was a total disaster most of the season, it paid off to perfection last week and I stand by my assessment. I also appreciated Alan's strategy of just picking the guys he wanted. This paid off in spades when his guys were healthy, but losing Lamar, Goedert, and Keenan for long periods of time really limited this team's consistency. CMC eventually lived up to his draft price, and Goff has been a hell of a Lamar replacement, but injuries are the main reason this team was lurking under the radar all season.

BMO was given a C, tied for the 9th best grade. I called out Javonte as his best pick and we know what happened there, but I also said that Devonta Smith was probably the worst pick in the draft, edging out Josh Allen. There is a lot to be said about the Josh side of that sentence, but let's look back at Devonta. He was drafted for $15, making him the 22nd most expensive WR during the draft. Through 17 weeks, he has been WR10 on overall points and WR15 on points per game. I stand corrected! BMO is in the Stevens Bowl primarily because their starting lineup has been incredibly healthy all season, but Devonta becoming a bargain played a role that I did not see coming.

Let's get to the preview.

Stevens Bowl XIV - Alan vs. BMO

Quarterback
Mahomes is going to be the MVP and has had potentially his best season yet, without Reek no less. On the flip side, Jared Goff went from a likely cap casualty to someone who will continue to get paid outrageous amounts of money to win less than half of his games. This one obviously goes to BMO, but with a Denver D that randomly steps up, and a Bears team that is just trying to end the season, it's not a huge edge at all.
Slight Edge: BMO

Runningbacks
This is one of the more standard matchups. Alan has the obvious best RB, but BMO's duo are not far behind. And then Alan has Fat Lenny. Lenny served his purpose last week, and even though the Bucs need a win to clinch the division, the other three teams have something to play for as well. I expect CMC to flirt with 30, but he could easily be matched by Dalvin and/or Rhamondre. This is a really tough one, but I would feel dumb betting against McCaffrey right now.
Slight Edge:  Alan

Wide Receivers
This is where the matchup will be decided. All six players here have relatively high ceilings but floors of zero, due to injury or underperformance. How Alan survived the TNF debacle from Garrett and Zay last week is something only Barnard can explain, and Keenan is a walking hamstring pull. Bennett has a more interesting situation. Devonta is his safest option, as DK will likely be swarmed by the Jets strong CB duo, and then there's Terry. It's been well documented how Wentz absolutely hates throwing Terry the ball. I could see him trying to force the issue this week, or continuing to avoid passing to his best WR. Too many factors here to make a strong prediction.
Edge: Even 

Tight End
This position usually comes down to which player scores, and while that's likely the case here, Alan has a real weapon in Goedert. He was only targeted three times in his return from injury, and I'm not sure how much Philly will want to push him with the division mostly wrapped up. Either way, he's a better option than Njoku, but the range of outcomes is large.
Edge: Alan

D/ST
As weird as it sounds, San Fran's D may be the single biggest reason Alan is back in the Stevens Bowl. They haven't been dropping 20+ point weeks with multiple TDs, but in the last six weeks, they have only failed to hit double figures once (last week against Barnard, which only he can explain). Bennett is rolling with the Jags against the Texans which makes sense, but there is a chance that Jacksonville either sits some guys or takes their feet off the gas with essentially nothing to play for. Still the right play, but the floor is lower than the Niners facing Jarrett Stidham
Edge: Alan

Pick
I still think that WR performance determines the outcome here, not only because they make up almost half the players in the matchup, but because their specific situations are so variable. In scheduling news, neither team having anyone going on TNF, SNF, or MNF means that this thing will be wrapped up before dinnertime on Sunday. I tend to value true team management in situations like this, and while BMO drafted well, you can only rely on that draft for so long (the semi-finals in Barnard's case). Alan's moves for Zay Jones and Jared Goff didn't seem like much at the time, but they will likely be key drivers on the last leg of the Masandiassance 2.0. Alan in play indeed.
Pick: Alan

Semi-Final Preview (Guest Post)

Editor's note: This week's preview of the Semi-Finals was submitted by Weissbard, and includes the typical level of hard-hitting analysis we have come to expect from our former two-time champ.

Congrats on your first coat James!

Playoff Scenarios

 Welp, we finally made it to the last week of the regular season. This has been a weird year, between a lack of truly dominant teams in the NFL, and the "best" teams in this league being Barnard, Bennett, and Zacherman, all noted non-jacket owners. I feel like the league was less active this year, and can't help but feel like I'm at least partially to blame for putting the blog on hiatus. There were only 5 total trades, and 3 of them were either me trading for Tight Ends, or a swap of handcuffs. Hopefully we all get collectively better next year to avoid the abomination at the top of the standings.

This post will focus entirely on playoffs scenarios. It's easier to view this through the team level than the seed level, but it's still insanely complicated at the bottom of the playoff bracket. For these purposes, I'm assuming that no team can outscore another by more than 76 points this week, which is the average difference between the top (132.85) and bottom (56.84) points each week through the season.

Let's start with the easy ones:

Barnard - Clinched the playoffs, the division, the bye, and the #1 seed/Best Regular Season Record award. What a year it's been for the Nard Dogs, and it's only getting started on his path to an inevitable chef's coat. He overspent on Allen, but he's got the QB3, RB1 and RB4, and WR2. An amazing draft and while he's had questionable roster management at best since then, this team is a juggernaut that seems impervious to injury or regression.

BMO - Clinched the playoffs and the division. Can clinch the #2 seed and a bye if they beat AGD. Can only fall to the #3 seed (and a matchup with a potentially scary NiJo spot) if they lose to AGD and Zacherman beats Billy.

AGD - Eliminated as they are 2 games back in the Wild Card and more than 76 points below Esco for the NiJo spot.

Ajay - Eliminated as he is 2 games back in the Wild Card and more than 76 points below Esco for the NiJo spot.

Billy - Eliminated as he is 5 games back in the Wild Card and more than 76 points below Esco for the NiJo spot.

The other 9 teams are all in various stages of contention for 4 playoff spots. I'll go through these from most likely to least likely, starting with the race for the 3-4-5 seeds by record:

Zacherman - Clinches the playoffs with a win over Billy, and can get as high as the #2 seed and a bye if he beats Billy and BMO loses to AGD. Can still clinch the playoffs and a top 5 seed with a loss if ANY of the following happen: Gutman loses to Marco OR Gutman beats Marco AND Z outscores Gutman by 9; Levine loses to Alan OR Levine beats Alan AND Levine doesn't outscore Z by 35; Esco loses to Weissbard OR Esco beats Weissbard AND Esco doesn't outscore Z by 43. Every other 7-6 team is more than 76 points below Z so they cannot pass him. 

Gutman - Clinches the playoffs with a win over Marco, and can get as high as the #3 seed. Can clinch the playoffs and a top 5 seed with a loss if 2 of the following happen: Levine loses to Alan AND Levine doesn't outscore Gutman by 27; Esco loses to Weissbard AND Esco doesn't outscore Gutman by 35 AND Weissbard doesn't outscore Gutman by 51; Kumpf loses to Ajay OR Kumpf beats Ajay AND Kumpf doesn't outscore Gutman by 65. 

Levine - Clinches the playoffs with a win over Alan AND 1 of the following: Gutman loses to Marco; Esco loses to Weissbard OR Esco beats Weissbard AND Esco doesn't outscore Levine by 9. Can clinch the playoffs and a top 5 seed with a loss if 2 of the following happen: Gutman loses to Marco AND Levine outscores Gutman by 27 AND Marco doesn't outscore Levine by 70; Esco loses to Weissbard AND Esco doesn't outscore Levine by 9 AND Weissbard doesn't outscore Levine by 25; Kumpf loses to Ajay OR Kumpf beats Ajay AND Kumpf doesn't outscore Levine by 39; Alan doesn't outscore Levine by 54.

Esco - Clinches playoffs with a win over Weissbard AND 1 of the following: Gutman loses to Marco; Levine loses to Alan AND Alan doesn't outscore Esco by 46; Zacherman loses to Billy AND Esco outscores Z by 43. Can clinch the playoffs and a top 5 seed with a loss if 2 of the following happen: Gutman loses to Marco AND Esco outscores Gutman by 35 AND Marco doesn't outscore Esco by 62; Levine loses to Alan AND Esco outscores Levine by 9 AND Alan doesn't outscore Esco by 46; Weissbard doesn't outscore Esco by 17; Kumpf loses to Ajay OR Kumpf beats Ajay AND Kumpf doesn't outscore Esco by 31.

Alan - Clinches playoffs with a win over Levine AND 1 of the following: Marco beats Gutman AND Marco doesn't outscore Alan by 17; Esco beats Weissbard AND Alan outscores Esco 46 OR Weissbard beats Esco AND Alan outscores Weissbard by 30. Cannot clinch a top 5 seed with a loss because that means Levine will have won, and Alan is more than 76 points below Gutman.

Weissbard - Clinches playoffs with a win over Esco and 2 of the following: Marco beats Gutman AND Marco doesn't outscore Weissbard by 46 AND Weissbard outscores Gutman by 51; Weissbard outscores Esco by 17; Kumpf loses to Ajay OR Kumpf beats Ajay AND Kumpf doesn't outscore Weissbard by 15. Cannot clinch a top 5 seed with a loss because he is 1 game back of the Wild Card already.

Kumpf - Clinches playoffs with a win over Ajay and both of the following: Marco beats Gutman AND Marco doesn't outscore Kumpf by 32 AND Kumpf outscores Gutman by 65; Weissbard beats Esco AND Kumpf outscores Esco by 31 AND Kumpf outscores Weissbard by 15. Cannot clinch a top 5 seed with a loss because he is 1 game back of the Wild Card already.

Marco - Clinches playoffs with a win over Gutman and ALL of the following: Alan beats Levine AND Marco outscores Alan by 17 AND Marco outscores Levine by 70; Weissbard beats Esco AND Marco outscores Weissbard by 46 AND Marco outscores Esco by 62; Kumpf loses to Ajay OR Kumpf beats Ajay AND Marco outscores Kumpf by 32. Cannot clinch a top 5 seed with a loss because he is 1 game back of the Wild Card already.

Well that was exhausting and I'm still not 100% confident I have all the permutations correct because of the Gutman/Marco, Levine/Alan, and Esco/Weissbard head-to-head matchups. But it's close, and basically Zacherman is in amazing shape, Gutman is in really good shape, and Levine is probably better than 50% to get a top 5 seed.

Now for the NiJo Madness. These are all the point gaps between the teams in contention for the NiJo spot:

Keep in mind that 3 of these teams will qualify for the playoffs based on record, so they will not be involved in the NiJo math. As it stands now, Esco is in the NiJo spot, but 4 teams are within 61.38 of him.

I created this sheet that I am aspirationally going to update throughout the weekend based on ESPN projections so we can get a live look at the playoff picture:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12o-WPBbUwCkW6K5xvR-vk-12azsOoA7VAhr--mN6kgw/edit?usp=sharing

My projected Playoff field is:
1. Barnard
2. Bennett
3. Zacherman
4. Gutman
5. Levine
6. Weissbard

For the most chaos, the league should be rooting for Marco over Gutman, Alan over Levine, and Kumpf over Ajay. See you all on the other side.

Trade Deadline Preview

 And we're back!

The regular season is more than halfway complete and we're three weeks away from the Fantasy Trade Deadline. And most importantly, I have a light meeting week at work, so I can actually spend time on my favorite (only) post of the year.

Before getting into the Mock Trades, let's take a quick look at the current standings.

If the season ended today, the playoff field would be:

1. Barnard (Barnard Division Champion/Bye)
2. Bennett (Kumpf Division Champion/Bye)
3. Esco (Weissbard Division Champion)
4. Alan (Wild Card 1)
5. Nick (Wild Card 2)
6. Levine (NiJo Spot)

Most of the field above has earned their placement with consistently top scoring weeks. Barnard is a shocking 129 points above Levine in second place, averaging over 16 points per game more than anyone else. That's basically like him having an extra A.J. Brown each week compared to every other team. There are some chinks in the armor here with a two-game losing streak, but I think Barnard is comfortably the favorite right now.

Levine is only one game back from a Wild Card spot, and I would bet against him actually needing the NiJo spot to make the playoffs. Esco and Bennett also either have a nice points scored advantage over the rest of the field (Esco) or an insane three game lead in the best drafted division in FALAFEL history (Bennett). 

That leaves Alan and Nick as the vulnerable teams. Nick is above .500 with the 12th most points scored, and while he has been due for some luck in fantasy, it will be hilarious when he misses the playoff due to the NiJo Rule. Alan could go either way. Middle of the road points scored, but the second least points against. He'll face tougher competition from here on out, but his team is solid enough to stay competitive.

As for the group of teams chasing a playoff spot, Gutman and Z are just one game back from a Wild Card spot, with performances about equivalent to Alan, though Z is definitely headed in the wrong direction. Looking at the NiJo spot, I'm in contention as well with a miniscule lead over Gutman and both of us 33 points behind Levine. That's pretty much the line for true playoff contention right now.

The other teams are still technically within reach of a Wild Card spot (AGD, Ajay), the NiJo spot (Marco), or both (Weissbard), other than Billy. Another rough season there, and amazing value in the second round of the Division Draft.

As things stand, my playoff prediction is:

1. Barnard
2. Bennett
3. Esco
4. Gutman
5. AGD
6. Levine

But that can all change if teams make some big trades...

Mock Trade Mania

As always some of these trades are more realistic than others, and some are more impactful than others, but I hope we can at least get some conversations started during the least trade-happy year in recent memory.

Mock Trade 1
Bennett receives Aaron Rodgers, Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida
Nick receives Patrick Mahomes, Dalvin Cook, and Keontay Ingram
Let's start with a banger! Bennett is in the rare position of being a favorite to make the playoffs, and he also has two startable QBs now that the Bears have somewhat figured out how to use Fields. Nick has had nothing but frustration at the QB position, and no one can solve that frustration quite like Mahomes. In this situation, Bennett would be placing big bets on Fields ability (though Rodgers isn't a bad insurance policy) and Saquon's health, while Nick would balance his roster and still have a stud RB each week.

I can't see this deal actually happening, both because Bennett is horrible to try to trade with and Nick likely values Saquon higher than anyone else in the league, but I would pay to be a fly on the wall for the trade negotiation.

Mock Trade 2
Gutman receives James Robinson, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Amon-Ra St. Brown
Zacherman receives Joe Mixon, Semaje Perine, and George Pickens
This one is a little bit more shuffling the deck chairs without either team gaining a ton, but it does give Zacherman a true starting RB, while Gutman gets a big WR upgrade while owning the Jets and Falcons backfields (for whatever that is worth). This probably helps Z a bit more than Gut, but I wouldn't want to face an Ekeler/JRob/Patterson/AJB/St. Brown lineup in the first round if they're all healthy.

Mock Trade 3
AGD receives David Montgomery
Barnard receives Brandon Aiyuk
Both of these teams are in pretty good shape roster-wise. AGD currently has only three RBs, which tends to be a problem in a 14 team league, so getting Montgomery adds some balance, injury protection, and a flex option. Barnard is set with Chubb and Jacobs, but his WR situation is iffy after Diggs, so Aiyuk is another option there. This trade would have to happen after this week with Chubb on bye, and would also require AGD to change their team name, which may be a non-starter.

Mock Trade 4
Ajay receives AJ Dillon and DeAndre Hopkins
Levine receives D'Onta Foreman and Amari Cooper
Both of these teams have tons of depth, but their starting lineups are lacking. This trade gives Levine an actual starting RB to pair with Mostert (who may now be in a timeshare with Jeff Wilson anyway) and gives Ajay a dynamic WR duo. I don't think either team has the Stevens Bowl in their futures unless some injuries break the right way, but this won't hurt either team's chances.

Mock Trade 5
Alan receives Brian Robinson Jr., Davante Adams, and Greg Dulcich
Weissbard receives Leonard Fournette, Chase Claypool, and Dallas Goedert
The more I've looked at this one the more I like it. Weiss would come away with the best RB trio in the league, and a massive upgrade at TE (along with the QB connection if he can stomach that many Eagles). For Alan, the upgrade that Adams brings to his WR group is worth the downgrades at RB2 and TE. Weiss would likely need to re-balance his roster (Knox and Jakobi for a mediocre WR?), but this one truly helps both teams.

Mock Trade 6
Billy receives DeAndre Swift and Jamaal Williams
Kumpf receives Jonathan Taylor and Gus Edwards
This is strictly about the path to the playoffs. Billy basically needs to win out (and have some help) to have a chance. Jonathan Taylor has been very disappointing compared to preseason projections, so any down week, injury, or the Week 14 bye massively impacts that possibility. My best playoff path is the NiJo spot, so I can absorb one or two duds if the overall performance is still there. It's a risk for either of us, but the Lions duo gives Billy some safety in terms of injury and a bye that has already occurred (and two starters as I am now using them), while I get the potential upside of JT (and the Gus Bus).

Mock Trade 7
Esco receives Ja'Marr Chase and Buffalo D/ST
Marco receives Chris Godwin and Jets D/ST
We end with a bit of a weird trade, but one that makes sense. Marco is similar to me in that he just needs points and needs them now. Chase being hurt sucks, and makes him a perfect trade option to a team that can afford to be without a WR for a few weeks. Esco fits the bill, as he is already in playoff position and has more than 2 startable WRs right now. This trade gives Esco Stevens Bowl upside, with the eventual return of Chase and the top D/ST in the league, and keeps Marco's playoff hopes alive, albeit on life support, with a healthy WR.

I'll end with another quick Power Rankings to see how things have changed in the last month:

1. Barnard (Last: 7th)
2. AGD (Last: 5th)
3. Esco (Last: 2nd)
4. Levine (Last: 1st)
5. Gutman (Last: 6th)
6. Kumpf (Last: 4th)
7. Weissbard (Last: 9th)
8. Ajay (Last: 10th)
9. Alan (Last: 8th)
10. Zacherman (Last: 3rd)
11. Bennett (Last: 14th)
12. Nick (Last: 12th)
13. Billy (Last: 13th)
14. Marco (Last: 11th)

Trade Grades 1&2

 Checking in for a quick Trade Recap.

Trade Grade 1
Nick receives Matt Breida
Weissbard receives Jaylen Warren

Really easing into the trades this year. A simple swap of handcuffs. I prefer Breida to Warren slightly because 1) he's gotten snaps in the NFL before and 2) Benny Snell might be the actual backup in Pitt if Najee goes down. I've already said too much about this trade.
Nick Grade: B+
Weissbard Grade: B

Trade Grade 2
Esco receives Mark Ingram II and Mark Andrews
Marco receives Darrell Henderson Jr., Christian Kirk, and T.J. Hockenson

Now we're talking! It might be a TE-centric trade, but we'll take what we can get at this point. This trade is actually pretty even, though for completely different reasons. 

For Esco, he traded his fourth best RB and WR for as big of an upgrade as possible at TE, as well as his most necessary handcuff. You can't do much better than improving your starting lineup and insurance policy while only hurting your bench. And trading Hockenson this week is the definition of selling high.

For Marco, the standards are a lot lower. He was able to add two starters while downgrading from a top two TE to a TE firmly in the top 10 but probably not top 5. In general, that's good business too! But the fact that Esco's table scraps are now obvious starters for Marco doesn't bode well for Marco's season. Not a bad trade, but I would put money on seeing Marco get rid of Lamb and maybe Chase within the next month as he scrambles for relevance.
Esco Grade: A
Marco Grade: B+

And for the hell of hit, here's a quick Power Ranking as we cross the quarter pole of the season:

1. Levine
2. Esco
3. Zacherman
4. Kumpf
5. AGD
6. Gutman
7. Barnard
8. Alan
9. Weissbard
10. Ajay
11. Marco
12. Nick
13. Billy
14. BMO