Welp, we finally made it to the last week of the regular season. This has been a weird year, between a lack of truly dominant teams in the NFL, and the "best" teams in this league being Barnard, Bennett, and Zacherman, all noted non-jacket owners. I feel like the league was less active this year, and can't help but feel like I'm at least partially to blame for putting the blog on hiatus. There were only 5 total trades, and 3 of them were either me trading for Tight Ends, or a swap of handcuffs. Hopefully we all get collectively better next year to avoid the abomination at the top of the standings.
This post will focus entirely on playoffs scenarios. It's easier to view this through the team level than the seed level, but it's still insanely complicated at the bottom of the playoff bracket. For these purposes, I'm assuming that no team can outscore another by more than 76 points this week, which is the average difference between the top (132.85) and bottom (56.84) points each week through the season.
Let's start with the easy ones:
Barnard - Clinched the playoffs, the division, the bye, and the #1 seed/Best Regular Season Record award. What a year it's been for the Nard Dogs, and it's only getting started on his path to an inevitable chef's coat. He overspent on Allen, but he's got the QB3, RB1 and RB4, and WR2. An amazing draft and while he's had questionable roster management at best since then, this team is a juggernaut that seems impervious to injury or regression.
BMO - Clinched the playoffs and the division. Can clinch the #2 seed and a bye if they beat AGD. Can only fall to the #3 seed (and a matchup with a potentially scary NiJo spot) if they lose to AGD and Zacherman beats Billy.
AGD - Eliminated as they are 2 games back in the Wild Card and more than 76 points below Esco for the NiJo spot.
Ajay - Eliminated as he is 2 games back in the Wild Card and more than 76 points below Esco for the NiJo spot.
Billy - Eliminated as he is 5 games back in the Wild Card and more than 76 points below Esco for the NiJo spot.
The other 9 teams are all in various stages of contention for 4 playoff spots. I'll go through these from most likely to least likely, starting with the race for the 3-4-5 seeds by record:
Zacherman - Clinches the playoffs with a win over Billy, and can get as high as the #2 seed and a bye if he beats Billy and BMO loses to AGD. Can still clinch the playoffs and a top 5 seed with a loss if ANY of the following happen: Gutman loses to Marco OR Gutman beats Marco AND Z outscores Gutman by 9; Levine loses to Alan OR Levine beats Alan AND Levine doesn't outscore Z by 35; Esco loses to Weissbard OR Esco beats Weissbard AND Esco doesn't outscore Z by 43. Every other 7-6 team is more than 76 points below Z so they cannot pass him.
Gutman - Clinches the playoffs with a win over Marco, and can get as high as the #3 seed. Can clinch the playoffs and a top 5 seed with a loss if 2 of the following happen: Levine loses to Alan AND Levine doesn't outscore Gutman by 27; Esco loses to Weissbard AND Esco doesn't outscore Gutman by 35 AND Weissbard doesn't outscore Gutman by 51; Kumpf loses to Ajay OR Kumpf beats Ajay AND Kumpf doesn't outscore Gutman by 65.
Levine - Clinches the playoffs with a win over Alan AND 1 of the following: Gutman loses to Marco; Esco loses to Weissbard OR Esco beats Weissbard AND Esco doesn't outscore Levine by 9. Can clinch the playoffs and a top 5 seed with a loss if 2 of the following happen: Gutman loses to Marco AND Levine outscores Gutman by 27 AND Marco doesn't outscore Levine by 70; Esco loses to Weissbard AND Esco doesn't outscore Levine by 9 AND Weissbard doesn't outscore Levine by 25; Kumpf loses to Ajay OR Kumpf beats Ajay AND Kumpf doesn't outscore Levine by 39; Alan doesn't outscore Levine by 54.
Esco - Clinches playoffs with a win over Weissbard AND 1 of the following: Gutman loses to Marco; Levine loses to Alan AND Alan doesn't outscore Esco by 46; Zacherman loses to Billy AND Esco outscores Z by 43. Can clinch the playoffs and a top 5 seed with a loss if 2 of the following happen: Gutman loses to Marco AND Esco outscores Gutman by 35 AND Marco doesn't outscore Esco by 62; Levine loses to Alan AND Esco outscores Levine by 9 AND Alan doesn't outscore Esco by 46; Weissbard doesn't outscore Esco by 17; Kumpf loses to Ajay OR Kumpf beats Ajay AND Kumpf doesn't outscore Esco by 31.
Alan - Clinches playoffs with a win over Levine AND 1 of the following: Marco beats Gutman AND Marco doesn't outscore Alan by 17; Esco beats Weissbard AND Alan outscores Esco 46 OR Weissbard beats Esco AND Alan outscores Weissbard by 30. Cannot clinch a top 5 seed with a loss because that means Levine will have won, and Alan is more than 76 points below Gutman.
Weissbard - Clinches playoffs with a win over Esco and 2 of the following: Marco beats Gutman AND Marco doesn't outscore Weissbard by 46 AND Weissbard outscores Gutman by 51; Weissbard outscores Esco by 17; Kumpf loses to Ajay OR Kumpf beats Ajay AND Kumpf doesn't outscore Weissbard by 15. Cannot clinch a top 5 seed with a loss because he is 1 game back of the Wild Card already.
Kumpf - Clinches playoffs with a win over Ajay and both of the following: Marco beats Gutman AND Marco doesn't outscore Kumpf by 32 AND Kumpf outscores Gutman by 65; Weissbard beats Esco AND Kumpf outscores Esco by 31 AND Kumpf outscores Weissbard by 15. Cannot clinch a top 5 seed with a loss because he is 1 game back of the Wild Card already.
Marco - Clinches playoffs with a win over Gutman and ALL of the following: Alan beats Levine AND Marco outscores Alan by 17 AND Marco outscores Levine by 70; Weissbard beats Esco AND Marco outscores Weissbard by 46 AND Marco outscores Esco by 62; Kumpf loses to Ajay OR Kumpf beats Ajay AND Marco outscores Kumpf by 32. Cannot clinch a top 5 seed with a loss because he is 1 game back of the Wild Card already.
Well that was exhausting and I'm still not 100% confident I have all the permutations correct because of the Gutman/Marco, Levine/Alan, and Esco/Weissbard head-to-head matchups. But it's close, and basically Zacherman is in amazing shape, Gutman is in really good shape, and Levine is probably better than 50% to get a top 5 seed.
Now for the NiJo Madness. These are all the point gaps between the teams in contention for the NiJo spot:
Keep in mind that 3 of these teams will qualify for the playoffs based on record, so they will not be involved in the NiJo math. As it stands now, Esco is in the NiJo spot, but 4 teams are within 61.38 of him.
I created this sheet that I am aspirationally going to update throughout the weekend based on ESPN projections so we can get a live look at the playoff picture:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12o-WPBbUwCkW6K5xvR-vk-12azsOoA7VAhr--mN6kgw/edit?usp=sharing
My projected Playoff field is:
1. Barnard
2. Bennett
3. Zacherman
4. Gutman
5. Levine
6. Weissbard
For the most chaos, the league should be rooting for Marco over Gutman, Alan over Levine, and Kumpf over Ajay. See you all on the other side.
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