Week 1 Recap

What a week to kickoff the season. Starting Thursday night with Marco's declarative statement on his Stevens Bowl aspirations, and ending with one of the better Monday Night Miracles ever potentially kicking off Round 3 of the Masandiassance (I think we can all agree that oven mitts that say "Save That CUM" would be fantastic), this week did not lack for drama. That continued through Wednesday where Ajay shattered Wayne Gallman's previous record by bidding a whopping $198 for a player who will likely be third string in San Fran by Week 8. Just an amazing week all around.

However, it is just one week. The Cardinals looked amazing, but they played a bottom 5 (bottom 1?) Titans defense. Same with the Eagles, 49ers, and Texans. The Bills, Packers, and Chargers did not look explosive, to say the least, but they played some stifling defenses. I do think that the Rams, Bucs, Cowboys, Browns, and Chiefs (duh) are as good as they look, and the Giants, Jaguars, Jets, and Falcons are as bad as they look. But everything else is a massive TBD. Let the overreaction commence!

Week 2 Power Rankings

1. Marco (Post Draft: 2nd)
It's only one week, but... I can't really find any holes in this roster. Brady doesn't appear to have aged, and if anything looks better. His RB stable is not spectacular but he has four options that he could start (given Hyde's shockingly large role), which is 2 more than most teams and 3 more than Gutman. His worst receiver is Tee Higgins. Even Logan Thomas is serviceable. The scariest thing is that we know Marco isn't afraid to make trades, so getting someone like Darren Waller or DK Metcalf is not hard to envision.

2. AGD (Post Draft: 1st)
It's only one week, but...the only questions I had about this roster were answered, and some new ones appeared. This is unquestionably a playoff team, and Dak/Kamara/Hockenson(!) is a nice trio at their positions, but the performance of Julio and Mike Davis is concerning. Your bench is still pretty stacked, but that may just lead to some more difficult lineup decisions on a weekly basis. I can also see some pretty obvious trade options here given the unexpectedly strong performances of Singletary and Jamaal Williams. 

3. Weissbard (Post Draft: 4th)
It's only one week, but...this team is one trade away from being a true contender. The Jeudy injury hurts an already mediocre (but deep) WR corps, so a Kareem/Waddle for stud WR trade makes a whole lot of sense for more than one team out there. Herbert did nothing in Week 1 to make me think he's not Wentz 2.0, so I continue to think that's a diminishing asset, but he's still an upgrade for a handful of teams.

4. Mejia (Post Draft: 5th)
It's only one week, but...a normal Rodgers performance would have you at 1-0. I didn't love the Terrace Marshall lineup decision, but I'll chalk that up to Bennett, and now Fuller is off suspension and some other great Mejia picks like Shephard and Sammy looked good last week. Kelce may be the single most dominant player in fantasy, and while I don't love Fat Lenny starting, Pollard seems like he's moving closer to Kareem Hunt co-starter territory.

5. Nick (Post Draft: 12th)
It's only one week, but...I would not start Saquon this week. As I said in the draft recap, this will be an absolutely brutal year to own Saquon, and WFT on a short week will be another slog. On the bright side, you actually don't need to start him this week. Chubb looked phenomenal, Ty'Son has the chance to hold onto the job in Baltimore, and if Damien doesn't get benched he's going to get a ton of carries. That's an enviable situation, and gives you assets to improve your QB and TE situation if needed.

6. Billy (Post Draft: 11th)
It's only one week, but...Billy may have found his balance. His RB trio had a pretty rough week, but he appears to have hit on Corey Davis and the Jags passing game, and he somehow has the most prolific QB trio in the league. Some of that will certainly regress, but I'd have to assume that Henry/JTT/Najee combine for more than 30 in most other weeks, and even if they don't Hines is flex-worthy in his current role.

7. Levine (Post Draft: 9th)
It's only one week, but...crushing loss aside, this is a perfectly average team. There are some opportunities for upside if Lamar stops bailing from the pocket and ARob gets a QB upgrade, but otherwise Levine will be between 90-100 every week. That should lead to a .500-ish record, but I don't see Levine being a division captain next year.

8. Barnard (Post Draft: 13th)
It's only one week, but...the floor (and ceiling) of this team is higher than anticipated. I assumed that the Mahomes/Reek combo gave Barnard a floor of 40-50 every week. That appears to be low based on how they looked against Cleveland, and if the KC defense is as rough as they looked, the Chiefs will need to throw more than they have the last two years. The rest of his team is where the ceiling comes in. His WRs always looked solid, but Deebo's role in the San Fran offense is back to 2019 levels, Courtland Sutton is now WR1 in Denver, Odell is...there, and if the Pats passing game is competent, then Barnard has options there as well. Runningback is still going to be an issue. I don't think I've ever seen two RBs put up 26.8 points on 44 total rushing yards, but as long as they both have a redzone presence, it might not matter. One Chiefs injury would cripple this team, but if they stay healthy, the Barndogs might sniff the playoffs.

9. Ajay (Post Draft: 14th)
It's only one week, but...the Elijah Mitchell bid will determine the outcome of Ajay's season. I respect the balls here, but despite how bad he looked Week 1, RoJo is still the RB1 in Tampa. He should theoretically be a starting option, so losing your ability to win an auction for the rest of the year is questionable. The rest of the squad looked pretty solid, as you have to be happy with Henderson's role for now, and the Lamb/JJ/Waller trio will be strong every week. Kittle is really the odd man out, so a trade to one of the top teams for some RB help probably makes the most sense long term.

10. Kumpf (Post Draft: 7th)
It's only one week, but... drafting Raheem Mostert was a mistake. "If Mostert was healthy" was basically the eulogy for Nick's team last year, but I fell into the trap this year and he didn't even last one half. Had he played the whole game, I not only could have taken down Barnard, but the outlook of my season would look entirely different. I'm not worried about my Titans, given how abysmal their defense looks they will throw it a ton, and the Jameiscoaster will be fun, but unless Trey Sermon takes over in San Fran, my ceiling is limited.

11. Zacherman (Post Draft: 6th)
It's only one week, but... that was the absolute floor for your team. Outside of Stafford (who should be a top 5 QB), not one starter hit double figures on a team that was top heavy if anything. I am a little bit concerned about JRob's role, but Zeke, Clyde, and Davante will all bounce back to varying degrees (though matchups are not easy this week). My biggest concern remains depth, with very limited upside on your bench unless the Texans keep feeding Ingram for 2.8 YPC. Another rough week from your studs and I will likely reconsider, but I expect a better performance this time out.

12. Esco (Post Draft: 8th)
It's only one week, but... you may have wasted Kyler's best performance of the season. I'm sure he will be a top 10 QB this season, but his receivers were literally wide open the entire game, and with that division I don't expect too many other passing days like that (though the non-division schedule is light). Outside of that, I don't know what was more of a kick in the balls, Ridley and Keenan barely breaking 20, or getting a goose egg from your TE. Either way, regression should even things out all around here, but the upside is limited.

13. Gutman (Post Draft: 3rd)
It's only one week, but... you should enjoy 13th while you can. RB2 is clearly a wasteland on this team, but AJones will bounce back, Aiuyk will presumably play football this season, and it's possible (for now) that Jalen is legit. If he crashes back to earth this week, then you'll likely fall to the basement, but a dual threat QB with a solid O-Line and decent offensive weapons gives you some insurance. The obvious solution is to trade a WR for an RB, which you're well aware of. Last week you almost traded Terry for either Damien Harris or Ty'Son, which probably would have helped, but now I think your best outcome is to minimize the trade rape.

14. Alan (Post Draft: 10th)
It's only one week, but... if it is truly the Masandiassance II, you'll have to dig out of a pretty big roster hole. I'm willing to give Josh a pass based on a good Pittsburgh D, but you have to be a little bit scared after that performance. But the real reason you're at the bottom is the lack of options on this roster. Your RB2 situation is nearly as bad as Gutman's, but trading a WR would hurt your team way more than it would for Gutman. I'm pretty low on Sanders and Thielen, and while they showed out in Week 1, I don't expect that to be weekly occurrence. So really this team has Allen and DK, and then a bunch of mediocrity at best. Hopefully this gives you even more incentive to take down Esco this week.

Matchup of the Week: Billy vs. Nick
The only matchup of undefeated teams includes an Ajay team that I still don't love, so I'll go with the only division matchup this week. Both of these teams have massive questions about consistency across their roster, but the upside to each team is there if things break right. Nick also has the chance to jump to 2-0 and try to keep pace with Weissbard, while giving Billy an uphill climb.

Nick has the rare edge at QB this week, based primarily on matchups, but the real turning point of this matchup will be at RB. If Nick has the stones to sit Saquon, I think he runs away with this. Chubb, Harris, Ty'Son, and even Melvin Fucking Gordon have better matchups than Saquon and none of them are banged up. If Nick accepts the sub-10 point performance from Saquon, Billy's studs will have a chance to compete. Not a big enough chance for me to pick him (Lawrence and Chark vs. Denver and Corey Davis vs. the Pats will not be fun), but Nick losing due to starting Saquon would still be fun.
Pick: Nick
MotW Record: 1-0
Rivalry Week Record: 3-4

Asheville Draft Recap

Better late than never! 

My usual gimmick of rating everyone's draft using movie, TV, or song quotes was a little bit more difficult this year, which contributed to the delay along with one of the busier two week stretches of my life. Asheville isn't exactly a pop culture hot spot, and some of my options were Dirty Dancing, The Last of the Mohicans, and The Hunger Games, along with Forrest Gump, but that was used already (and could probably be used every year). So I'm going for a little bit of a stretch this year and seeing how this works using the 1993 Harrison Ford/Tommie Lee Jones/Joe Pantoliano classic, filmed in the Asheville area, The Fugitive.

Esco
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: All right, listen up, ladies and gentlemen, our fugitive has been on the run for ninety minutes. Average foot speed over uneven ground, barring injuries, is 4 miles per hour. That gives us a radius of six miles. What I want from each and every one of you is a hard-target search of every gas station, residence, warehouse, farmhouse, henhouse, outhouse and doghouse in that area. Checkpoints go up at fifteen miles. Your fugitive's name is Dr. Richard Kimble. Go get him.

We start with a monologue that jump-started Tommie Lee's career, and it goes to the ringleader of Draft Weekend. This was probably the most difficult draft to organize, between the setup of the "city" the lack of reliable Ubers, rampant flooding, and no support from Gutman or Belfer. It was still a successful weekend, and the house was excellent, so kudos to your work there.

In terms of your draft, it looked solid at the time. The Dobbins injury is obviously rough, but this was a deep team as it was drafted. You have a case for the strongest receiver duo in the league, and even without Dobbins, your RB2 situation still isn't the worst in the league. 
Best Pick: D'Andre Swift for $30
Worst Pick: Kenny Golladay for $10. None of your picks were huge overpays or huge values, so getting Swift for half the price of the top RBs and paying double digits for Giants WR will have to suffice. 
Grade: B+ 

Billy
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: Henry, Dr. Nichols lied to me. Go find him.

Most players in our league drafted the way they usually do. Hell, my predicted picks almost all hit. The one big exception was Billy going for three RBs instead of his usual two studs. I was skeptical during the draft, but after seeing how fucked the rest of the league is at RB, I think he has a huge edge in that spot. The rest of his squad is absolute trash, but that's always the case, and at least he got some handcuffs this year.
Best Pick: Jonathan Taylor for for $50. Billy is always tough for these sections, but I really like Taylor this year and that's a nice price.
Worst Pick: Bills D/ST for $2. When you go big at RB, every dollar counts, so spending more than $1 on a non-stud defense is a luxury that Billy can't afford.
Grade: B

Marco
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: Newman, we're gonna send you a bunch of cops, make sure they turn that place inside out.
Newman: You got it Sam.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: And don't let them give you any shit about your pony tail.

The only league member who can actually pull of a pony tail gets this random quote. Marco's presence was missed for Draft Weekend, but it worked wonders for his squad. Almost every time I saw a player go for less than expected, it seemed like Marco won the auction. The specific players are not my favorites, but I can't argue at all with the process.
Best Pick: David Montgomery for $31. Don't like Monty at all this year, but he probably should have gone for $10 more.
Worst Pick: DeAndre Hopkins for $49. Receiver is insanely deep this year, and I don't see Nuk worth $14 more than Keenan Allen.
Grade: A-

Ajay
Dr. Richard Kimble: I didn't kill my wife!
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: I don't care!

The most iconic line in the movie unfortunately goes to the worst draft in the league. Yes, Ajay has two of the top three TEs, and no, I don't care. I have no issue with going big at TE, as it's a onesie position and having WR2 production there is a massive edge over most of the rest of the league. HOWEVER, if you're starting more than one TE, then you are literally picking them over a RB or WR, who have more consistent production. Not to mention that going with Waller and Kittle means that you are totally fucked at QB and RB. I would be shocked if this team makes the playoffs.
Best Pick: Darren Waller for $31. Kelce absolutely deserved to be the top TE, but Waller has a shot to unseat him and is the clear top option in the Vegas passing game.
Worst Pick: George Kittle for $26. No issues with the price, but if you combined the money spent on Kittle and RoJo, you could have had someone in the Dobbins, Monty, Josh Jacobs tier. This team would look a lot better with that setup.
Grade: D

Nick
Cosmo Renfro: What happened? Where'd he go?
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: The guy did a Peter Pan right off of this dam, right here.
Cosmo Renfro: What?
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: Yeah. BOOM.
Cosmo Renfro: Holy shit... Can we go home now...?

This line works a couple of ways for Nick. First, I can totally see this being his response to hearing that someone jumped off the top of a dam. But also, his grade is going to drop the most from last year to this year. I loved Nick's team post-draft last season, and even most of the year despite him winning only one game (I mean look at my roster this season). But starting with a Saquon pick that is probably my least favorite in the league, continuing through a Big Ben/Fields QB situation, and ending with $3 and two roster spots on defense, I did not like this draft. However, the addition of Rock/Paper/Scissors for Shot Spot Companion was a personal highlight of Draft Weekend.
Best Pick: Kyle Pitts for $11. I made fun of Barnard for likely overpaying for Pitts pre-draft, but this could be insane value if he lives up to expectations. Even if he doesn't, it's not a $20 mistake.
Worst Pick: Saquon Barkley for $64. It's going to be hard enough being a Giants fan this year with their abysmal offensive line, turnover-prone QB, and clown of a coach, that paying this much to wince every time Saquon is tackled for a two yard loss on 1st and 10 will just add insult to injury.
Grade: C

Alan
Dr. Richard Kimble: They killed my wife.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: I know it Richard. But it's over.
[pauses and sighs]
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: You know I'm glad. I need the rest.

Only one member of this league can get a quote with a nice big sigh in it, and after a week in the wilderness, I'm sure Alan can use the rest. Alan's picks were a lesser version of Marco's, where I kept seeing him get players for less than expected. Alan went bigger across the board, so his depth is lacking a bit, and his RB situation is problematic at best, but he has a path to the playoffs.
Best Pick: Josh Allen at $26. I know I'm in the minority, but I think Josh is going to be QB1 this season.
Worst Pick: Mike Evans for $32. The Bucs offense has so many weapons that I don't love spending big on any individual player outside of maybe Brady. For a team that already had DK, this pick took much needed funds from the RB position.
Grade: B

Kumpf
Dr. Charles Nichols: Richard, I'm sorry, but I'm in the middle of this speech!
Dr. Richard Kimble: You almost got away with it, didn't you? I know all about it. I can prove it.

I gave myself this quote as I tried to take on Levine using his own strategy. It looked like it was working well for a bit, but when our Cooper Kupp bids approached $30, it was clear that I didn't quite get away with it, and both of our teams were weaker as a result. I obviously got lucky as hell with the Gus Bus bid, but grades don't account for that, and my team is super deep with potential starters and/or handcuffs, but has no studs at all. The fact that I have Joe Mixon again is insane, but looking at RB prices I'll take Mixon as the 14th most expensive RB any day.
Best Pick: Diontae Johnson for $13. Back to the well on this guy too, but he's WR1 in Pittsburgh and that price is criminal. 
Worst Pick: Cooper Kupp for $30. Already addressed. Diontae and Kupp for $43 combined is probably accurate, but the fund breakdown is less than ideal.
Grade: B+

Barnard
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: [First lines, said when arriving at the scene of the train wreck] My, my, my. What a mess.

This quote certainly describes Barnard's performance on Draft Day, starting with a poor Rock/Paper/Scissors showing, and culminating with waiting well over 2 hours to draft his second RB, the immortal David Johnson. While there is a decent chance that he has no RBs that will be starting on their own teams, the rest of his roster is not terrible. Mahomes to Tyreek will be unquestionably fun, he has no clear WR2 but about 7 WR3 options, and there's always the chance the Michael Thomas plays this season. That said, he can only start three of his WRs, and it's not like teams are dying to trade RBs for non-stud WRs, so I think he will struggle to have much upside beyond the high floor that his Chiefs provide.
Best Pick: Patrick Mahomes for $31. This was the seventh player nominated. If he had been 15 players later, I think he goes for $40.
Worst Pick: Michael Thomas for $13. I don't think he plays this season, and even if he does, spending $13 for a WR that will spend at least half the season on IR while not having a plan at RB2 is irresponsible.
Grade: C-

Mejia
Marshal Biggs: Sam, are you out of your mind? He's dead.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: That ought to make him easier to catch.

No one really fears Bennett during the draft. He might jack up the prices on some Eagles, but that wasn't really a concern this year. So with Mejia in full control, we all breathed even easier, expecting multiple defenses, Deshaun Watson for $20, and all the Cowboys. Instead, we got...a shockingly good draft. Much like I gave Autodraft credit when Donny did well, this is Mejia's team for this season, and it's one that I think will make the playoffs.
Best Pick: Aaron Rodgers for $12. My biggest regret is not going higher for Rodgers, well done.
Worst Pick: Robert Woods for $32. Rob Woods always goes for more than expected for obvious reasons, but that is the biggest blemish on this roster.
Grade: B+

Zacherman
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: So he showed up not dead yet. Let that be a lesson to you, boys and girls. Don't ever argue with the big dog, because the big dog is always right.
Marshal Biggs: Woo-woo-woo-woof.

As you can tell, I'm running out of even somewhat relevant quotes, so Zacherman gets one that mentions a dog. Z went big on three players, two of which I like, and then lucked out with JRob turning into a top 20 RB, so his grade will be lower here than I expect his team to finish. With all the investment that KC put into their offensive line, I think CEH is primed for a top 5 RB finish. By the time he was nominated, I already had Joe Fucking Mixon, otherwise I would have been all over Clyde. Z's team is thin at QB and TE, but he should be able to stream and/or trade his way into competence there. I doubt this a title contender, but the playoffs could easily be in the cards.
Best Pick: Clyde Edwards-Helaire for $49. 
Worst Pick: Davante Adams for $58. The price is probably fair for the talent, but given how deep WR is, and how much prices fell off after Davante and Tyreek, you could have built a deeper team by saving here.
Grade: B+

AGD
Dr. Richard Kimble: I thought you didn't care?
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: I don't.[laughs] Don't tell anybody, okay?
The best buddy moment in the movie goes to the most successful duo in FALAFEL history. Per usual AGD has an extremely solid squad, with high end talent at some spots and depth across the board. The biggest "hole" in their roster is that none of their receivers are the top option in their teams' passing games, and some aren't even top 2, but that's picking nits. I might be ordering two chef hats next summer.
Best Pick: TJ Hockenson for $9. This is the top receiving option for a team that's going to have to pass a lot, similar to Waller. He just cost $22 less.
Worst Pick: Devin Singletary for $6. If Singletary ever starts for this team, there are problems, but I think spending this money on handcuffs would have been more valuable.
Grade: A

Gutman
State Trooper: Hey, Doc! We're looking for a prisoner from that bus-train wreck a couple of hours ago, might be hurt.
Dr. Richard Kimble: Uh, what does he look like?
State Trooper: 6'1, 180, brown hair, brown eyes, beard. See anyone like that around?
Dr. Richard Kimble: Every time I look in the mirror, pal - except for the beard, of course!

Gutman would kill to be 6'1", but everything else checks out, and I'm really hurting for quotes here. Gut's team looked great after the draft, a definite playoff team. Then the Etienne injury happened and now the RB2 situation is at a Barnardian level. But for purposes of this post, I liked the team that was drafted. Too bad we'll never see it take the field.
Best Pick: Aaron Jones for $54. There's a theme here that the top RBs tended to be values and Jones is no different. It was mandatory to grab AJ Dillon though, so that hurts.
Worst Pick: Terry McLaurin for $37. Easy to say in hindsight, but after already having Diggs in the bag, going relatively big again at WR left you thin at RB and vulnerable to an injury :( 
Grade: A-

Levine
Sheriff Rawlins: Okay boys, gather around here and listen up. We're shuttin' it down, Wyatt Earp's here to mop up.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: That's funny. "Wyatt Earp."

Every year we watch Levine sit back and draft 10 startable players when no one has any money left, and every year we say that someone else should try to compete with him. Esco sometimes tries it, but he spent more on his core this year, so that left me trying to compete with Wyatt Fuckin Earp. As previously mentioned, I don't think I was totally effective, but I also think I weakened Levine in the process. His team is still super deep, but outside of Lamar, Ekeler, and ARob, this is not an intimidating roster. Could this be the rare down year for Levine?
Best Pick: Myles Gaskin for $15. At the time, it was not clear that Gaskin was RB1 in Miami, but even then, he was worth $20. If we draft again today, I think he'd go for closer to $30.
Worst Pick: Brandin Cooks for $12.  You never want to be in a bidding war for a Texans player, yet both Levine and Barnard got themselves in this situation.
Grade: B

Weissbard
Cosmo Renfro: When I die, I wanna come back just like you.
Deputy Marshal Samuel Gerard: Oh, you mean happy and handsome?

If anyone can talk shit this season it's Weissbard, who owns two of the last three Stevens Bowls. I highly doubt he will make it three in four, but a potentially healthy CMC could have something to say about that. I've mentioned several times that WR was crazy deep this year, so going big on RB was the best way to have a complete team, and Weiss leaned into that. He still has a solid selection of receivers to choose from, so while his lineup decisions may be tough, it's better than dealing with the RB2 situation that a lot of the league has. First trade prediction: After Chubb gets hurt, Gutman trades Stefon Diggs to Weissbard for Kareem Hunt.
Best Pick: Kareem Hunt for $16. Flex-worthy when Chubb is healthy, RB1 when Chubb is hurt. Would be RB2 for at least four teams in this league.
Worst Pick: Justin Herbert for $8. I know the 2QB strategy worked last year, but those $8 could have upgraded JuJu to Aiyuk, Diontae, or Higgins. That plus I think Herbert is Carson Wentz 2.0.
Grade: B+

Overall Grades:
AGD: A
Marco: A-
Gutman: A-
Weissbard: B+
Mejia: B+
Zacherman: B+
Kumpf: B+
Esco: B+
Levine: B
Alan: B
Billy: B
Nick: C
Barnard: C-
Ajay: D

Based on these predictions, it's AGD over Marco in the Stevens Bowl. We all know Marco will make trades, and Gutman/Esco have already fallen off due to injuries, but overall I liked the draft that most of the league had.

Rivalry Week 1 Predictions:
Kumpf over Barnard
Weissbard over Esco
AGD over Billy
Marco over Gutman
Mejia over Nick
Zacherman over Ajay
Levine over Alan

Matchup of the Week: Gutman vs. Marco
The only divisional matchup of Week 1 gets this honor by default, though I don't think it will be too dramatic. These lineups look pretty even across the board, both in terms of talent as well as matchups, but when you get to RB2 there's a definite record scratch. Hilariously, both teams are starting Seattle RBs. Less hilarious for Gutman, he's the one starting Rashaad Penny. There's a better chance of Penny tearing his ACL than turning into an actual startable RB, so this starts Marco's march to the Stevens Bowl.
Pick: Marco
MotW Record: 0-0

2021 Season Preview

Somehow, draft week is upon us. And while we crammed "Winter" Meetings, the Rivalry Week Draft, and the Room Draft into a monthlong period, it was all in preparation for the main event. This year's draft will be a little bit different, with a smaller crew, almost only comprised of league members (and I would probably bet against Bruno making it successfully to Asheville), and the first time we've all spent a week together during Delta since college.

Before we get to team rankings, I just want to do a quick review of the payout structure and rule changes from last year:

• Buy-In per team: $302 ($4200 prize pool + $28 for chef's coat/hat)
• Payouts
• Stevens Bowl Champion: $1500
• Stevens Bowl Runner-Up: $750
• Best Regular Season Record: $750
• Rivalry Week 1 Winners: $25 each ($175 total)
• Rivalry Week 2 Winners: $25 each ($175 total)
• High Score Week 1: $100
• High Score Week 14: $150
• High Score Weeks 2-13: $50 each ($600 total)
• We will handle the extra regular season game by adding a game to our regular season and keeping the playoffs Weeks 15-17. The extra game will be another Rivalry Week.
• IR Slots will be decreased from 3 to 2.
• Conditional Substitution threads will be created if games appear to be at risk of being postponed or cancelled out of the current week.

Now onto the usual franchise breakdown.

FALAFEL Team Power Rankings

All historical data has been updated on the sidebar, and thanks to a weird Blogger update, I had to actually learn some CSS code to get things to look relatively normal. The things I do for this league.

Just looking at standings, here are the usual fun facts:

• Most of our records have stabilized after 12 years in this league, so there wasn't much movement overall.
• AGD Reunion: Year 2 led to an 8-5 record, which only improved their overall winning percentage by .002, meaning they have basically averaged an 8-5 record over a decade together. Well done.
• Nick's 1-12 record drops him from second overall to 8th. No one else moved more than 2 slots other than Billy (-3).
• Billy and Nick winning a total of 4 games between them last year really boosted everyone else's winning percentage, so 8 of the 14 active franchises are above .500.
• The Stevens Bowl Paradox continues, as the franchises above .500 have combined for 3 championships, while those below .500 have 8. Donny has the remaining chef's coat and was fittingly right on .500 when he retired.
• Barnard and I are one tie away from having the same record after 12 years, though one of us has earned it more than the other as you will see below. I also tanked my game against him 2 years ago so I'm technically better.
• Bennett and Weissbard have the same winning percentage, but slightly different records thanks to Bennett's always hilarious 3 ties.

Getting away from overall records and to actual team performance, here is how things stand in the all-important Points Above Average race:

• Levine continues to be in a league of his own, which is only more impressive with each passing year.
• The Stevens Bowl performance is a little bit more evened out here, with Weissbard now in the black and Barnard falling into the negatives. But the imbalance is still there unless Gutman puts together a third straight strong season.
• Speaking of Weissbard, he appears to be the ultimate boom/bust candidate given how much better he ranks here than in overall record. 
• After a historically strong start to his career, Alan leans more toward bust in recent years. I would recommend that he consider getting his MBA.
• Billy has truly fallen off a cliff recently and rates nearly twice as poorly as any active team in this metric. When asked if he will still take two of the top RBs, as always this was his response.

That leaves us with Division Draft tiers, with captains listed:

1. Levine
2. AGD, Esco (Captain)
3. Joseph, Marco, Zacherman, Kumpf, Weissbard (Captain)
4. Gutman (Captain)
5. Barnard, Bennett, Ajay
6. Alan, Billy

Final statistical breakdown is the overall points scored in the 12 years of this hallowed league's existence:

I'll end this with the most likely draft pick at each position:

QB - Jalen Hurts - Bennett

RB - Christian McCaffrey/Derrick Henry (tie) - Billy

WR - Keenan Allen - Esco

TE - Kyle Pitts - Barnard

D/ST - Washington - Marco

See you in Asheville.

Rivalry Week 2021

With the addition of an extra game in this season Rivalry Week takes on double the importance. While the financial benefit is overall the same ($25 per matchup), it unbalances the schedule for the first time since we moved to 14 teams. I went over some of the logic behind picks in my email, but one team that I was very interested in seeing how people handled is Billy. 

Everyone knows he is going to go big on two RBs, which led to a Chef's Coat one time that is now 10 years in the past, as well as last year's debacle. With the outsized importance of 2-3 players who could very possibly be injured by Week 13, Billy seemed like an undervalued Rival in terms of ease. That changes this year, as (in all likelihood) his team will be at full strength for Week 1. Not sure anyone thought about this as much as I did, but just wanted to point out the varying strategies of Rivalry Week.

Here are the 2021 Rivalry Week(s) Matchups, ranked in order of the average points from each matchup:

1. Esco vs. Weissbard - 14.0 points - The Halloween Prank Bowl IV
2. (tie) AGD vs. Billy - 13.5 points - The Where's Marshall? Bowl II
2. (tie) Bennett vs. Nick - 13.5 points - The Ron Blomberg Bowl
4. (tie) Gutman vs. Marco - 13.0 points - The Dad Bowl IV aka The Father of Two Bowl II
4. (tie) Alan vs. Levine - 13.0 points - The Unexpected Shade Bowl
6. Barnard vs. Kumpf - 12.5 points - The One-Sided Rivalry Bowl II
7. Ajay vs. Zacherman - 8.0 points - The AARP Bowl III

Here is the raw data:

Some thoughts:

• Barnard and Weissbard complete the four-peat in finishing 1-2 in this exercise.
• Barnard ties his previous record for highest average score, with only Zacherman and Billy putting him as a below average Rival.
• Weissbard is a somewhat surprising second place given his recent success, but as we will see in next week's post, two good years does not erase a decade of disappointment (though Eli might disagree).
• Zacherman was by far the lowest rated Rival, and despite his lack of a Chef's Coat, he has a very strong historical record. The presence of Eleanor at Draft Weekend may have something to do with this as well.
• People were all over the place on AGD, with 4 teams putting them in their top three, and 5 teams putting them in their bottom three.
• Everyone was pretty consistent on Z and Billy, and Billy was especially consistent with 10/13 teams rating him between fourth and seventh.

Schedule will be updated in ESPN prior to Draft Weekend.

2021 FALAFEL Draft Location Madness - The Champion

 

Final thoughts:

• Pour one out to the Poconos, who nearly won two brackets in a row, and will likely never make a Final Four again once the world opens up.
• Asheville may be our most unlikely champion given that it only broke 10 votes once, and had two 9-7 wins. Really showed some grit down the stretch.
• Big thanks to Weissbard for volunteering to plan the weekend with all of his insider's knowledge. At least he gets first pick in the room draft.
• Winter Meetings are next on the list, but I'd like to wait to see how ESPN plans on handling the 17 week season before we vote on anything, as that will likely be the most important agenda item.
• Four months to the draft!