Week 11 Recap

Between a cold that won't go away and the best roster I'll ever have likely not making the playoffs thanks to consecutive losses to Z and Ajay, I don't feel like putting together a real intro. So let's just jump into it.

Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (bye) - Weissbard Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record
2. Gutman (bye) - Wild Card 1
3. Alan - Levine Division Champ
4. Esco - Zacherman Division Champ
5. Barnard - Wild Card 2
6. Nick - NiJo Spot

Week 12 Scenarios

• AGD can clinch the Division, Bye, and Best Record this week with a win over Billy.
• Alan can clinch the Division with a win over Levine.
• Esco can clinch the Division with a win over Barnard and Nick loss to Z.
• Gutman and Barnard can clinch the Wild Cards if they both win and Levine and Nick lose.
• Ajay, Zacherman, Weissbard, Bennett, and Billy have been eliminated from every playoff spot other than NiJo Rule.

Now for a breakdown of each individual playoff race.

Weissbard Division Champ
It's not official yet, but it would take a true collapse by both record and points for AGD to mess this one up.
Prediction: AGD 

Levine Division Champ
My collapse has made this a two-team race between Alan and Levine, who play each other this week. Levine has a 25 point lead for tiebreak purposes, and if he beats Alan that will obviously increase. They are one of the two(?!) Matchups of the Week this week, and the winner should take the division.
Prediction: See below.

Zacherman Division Champ
This is a similar two-team race between Esco and Nick, where the trailing team also has the edge in points. There is no head-to-head matchup here that will decide things, and Esco is very unlikely to make up almost 100 points in two weeks, so it will come down to record. Can Nick (Billy, AGD) make up a game on Esco (Barnard, Weissbard)? I honestly don't know, but the odds are currently in Esco's favor.
Prediction: Esco

Wild Cards
Gutman remains a pretty good bet for one of these spots, as he can lose one of his last two games and still be guaranteed a playoff berth, and his point total makes it likely he gets in even if he goes 0/2. The other spot is very much up in the air. Barnard controls his own destiny, but plays Esco and me, so could (should?) easily go 0/2. The loser of Alan/Levine is still alive as long as Barnard doesn't win out, and if I beat Gutman and Barnard loses to Esco, then Rivalry Week becomes a potential elimination game. Based on overall team quality, I would pick the Alan/Levine loser here, but the way Barnard's season has gone I assume he pulls out a lucky win against me or Esco.
Predictions: Gutman and Barnard

NiJo Spot
This could get really fun. Of the potential NiJo teams, Nick has a 17 point lead over me, 21 points over Levine, 36 points over Weissbard, and 46 points over Alan. Of those teams, Nick actually has the best situation in terms of byes and injuries, so if anyone gains ground, they'll really need to earn it. Realistically the teams chasing Nick need to hope that he passes Esco for the division.
Prediction: Nick


Week 12 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1)

2. Gutman (Last Week: 2)

3. Levine (Last Week: 4)

4. Esco (Last Week: 5)

5. Nick (Last Week: 6)

6. Kumpf (Last Week: 3)

7. Alan (Last Week: 8)

8. Weissbard (Last Week: 7)

9. Marco (Last Week: 10)

10. Billy (Last Week: 9)

11. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)

12. Barnard  (Last Week: 12)

13. Bennett (Last Week: 13)

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)


There are three high profile matchups this week, and two of them will be highlighted in this space. Me vs. Gutman isn't as important as these two because Gutman is almost certainly a Wild Card team and I'm almost certainly only eligible for NiJo spot, so the win/loss doesn't really matter to either of us.

Matchup of the Week 1: Alan vs. Levine
The de facto Division Title game I mentioned above, this requires a more in-depth look. Somehow these matchups are continually wrecked by bye weeks, and this one is no exception. Alan loses Ekeler and Kelce, while Levine is down Keenan and Hunter Henry. So both teams need replacement TEs, and both have their stud QBs in prime time against potentially difficult matchups. Their RBs are either mediocre or stuck in time shares, and their WRs are on bad passing offenses. Yet somehow this is the division title matchup and I'm probably missing the playoffs? Not bitter at all. I think this one is close overall, but Alan's roster is slightly more balanced and his matchups look a little bit better to me, so I think he clinches the division with a week to spare.
Pick: Alan

Matchup of the Week 2: Barnard vs. Esco
In a rare twist, the entire league other than Esco is rooting for Barnard here. An Esco loss and a Nick win creates the most chaos possible in Week 13, with Rivalry games becoming de facto playoff matchups. Unfortunately, we probably aren't getting our wish. Barnard has the chance to get out to an early lead with Brisket and Fells, and if those two can combine for 30 then we have ourselves a game. There are multiple players in the Detroit/Washington and Atlanta/Tampa games, but the huge matchup (as always when Barnard is involved) is the Pats/Cowboys game. If the Pats can dominate on defense and pound the ball with Sony, Barnard should get enough to make this competitive. I don't see that happening, and with Mike Thomas destroying Cooks adding insult to injury after that trade, Esco should get one step closer to a division crown.
Pick: Esco 

MotW Record: 5-6


Gambling Corner - Week of 11/18

NFL Bets
Colts (+4) at Texans - Win
Bears (-6) vs. Giants - Loss
Seahawks (+1.5) at Eagles - Win
Last Week: 1-3
2019 Record: 20-26-1 (-0.05 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Minnesota (-14) at Northwestern - Win
Oklahoma State (-6.5) at West Virginia - Win
Penn State (+18.5) at Ohio State - Win
Maryland (+5) vs. Nebraska - Loss
Kansas State (+3) at Texas Tech - Win
Washington (-14) at Colorado - Loss
Utah State (+10) vs. Boise State - Loss
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 49-37-1 (+5.67 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
West Ham (+0.5) vs. Tottenham - Loss
Norwich (+1.5) at Everton - Win
Burnley (+0.5) at Wolves - Win
Chelsea (+1.5) at Manchester City - Win
Sheffield (+0.5) vs. Manchester United - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 25-17-11 (+3.04 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Bournemouth (+175) vs. Wolves - Loss
Leicester City (+105) at Brighton - Win
Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 14-8 (+2.93 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets

Last Week: 5-2
2019-20 Record: 9-8-4 (-0.02 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 5-2 (+4.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

NBA Bets
Sixers (-12) vs. Knicks - Loss
Wizards (+2.5) vs. Spurs - Win
Last Week: 3-3-1
2019 Record: 12-9-1 (+1.84 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

NCAAB Bets
Georgia Tech (+5.5) at Georgia - Win
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+2.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)