Moving on...
Chaos reigned supreme once again in Week 10, highlighted (low-lighted?) by Cooper Kupp getting shut out and Saquon rushing 13 times for 1 yard. With the trade deadline coming in hot, almost every team is looking to improve for the stretch run, but the flurry of early season moves might make for a relatively quiet deadline. Or maybe we get a blockbuster that changes the Stevens Bowl outlook. I've been wrong about pretty much everything else in this space so I'm sure Nick and Z will swap CMC and Mahomes the minute I press send (Yes, I'm jaded after losing to Z this week).
Anyway, let's take a closer look at the Playoff Picture as we head into the final three weeks of the Regular Season.
Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (Bye) - Best Record, Weissbard Division Champ
2. Gutman (Bye) - Wild Card 1
3. Levine - Levine Division Champ
4. Alan - Wild Card 2
5. Esco - Zacherman Division Champ
6. Kumpf - NiJo Rule
Week 11 Scenarios
- AGD can clinch the Division, Bye, and Best Record this week if they win and Gutman loses.
- Ajay has been eliminated from every playoff spot other than NiJo Rule.
- Weissbard has been eliminated from the division, and can be eliminated from every playoff spot other than NiJo Rule this week.
- Zacherman can be eliminated from every playoff spot other than NiJo Rule this week.
Now for a breakdown of each individual playoff race.
Weissbard Division Champ
This one is quick, as mentioned above. AGD's magic number is 2 over Gutman and 1 over Barnard, so this division (and the bye and regular season title) can be wrapped up as soon as this week. A dominant season so far, with room for positive regression at the RB position, moves AGD back to the top of the Power Rankings after an extremely ill-advised one-week respite.
Prediction: AGD
Now it's time for the aforementioned chaos.
Levine Division Champ
This is essentially a three-way race, with the potential for all three teams to make the playoffs one way or another. Levine has the lead right now and should probably win it based on his schedule (Weissbard, Alan, Bennett), though the head-to-head with Alan could make things interesting. Alan's schedule is rough (AGD, Levine, Billy), so my guess is that he falls to third unless I completely shit the bed against my easier schedule (Ajay, Gutman, Barnard). These three teams are within 41 points of each other, so tiebreakers will be extremely important here.
Prediction: Levine
Zacherman Division Champ
Esco picked a hell of a time to get his shit together, and heads into Week 11 with a one-game lead and a relatively easy schedule (Gutman, Barnard, Weissbard). If he beats Gutman, I think he essentially clinches the division. If he loses this week, it opens the door for Nick, who should take down Z and Bennett before a crazy Rivalry Week with AGD. And despite being two games back, Marco has games against Ajay and Z remaining, so he could still have a say. This is the hardest division to predict, but I think Esco and Nick end up with the same record, which would likely give Nick the tiebreak based on points.
Prediction: Nick
Wild Cards
Despite a tough schedule (Esco, Kumpf, Marco), I think Gutman's squad is solid enough to hold onto at least one of the spots, especially given his point total. The second spot is wide open, and depends almost entirely on the outcomes above. If AGD, Levine, and Nick win their divisions, the second Wild Card is probably a race between Alan, Esco, Barnard, and myself. I can honestly see all of us ending up at 7-6, which would give me the edge right now given my 40+ point lead over the rest of the group. However, my team still has a ton of byes coming up, not to mention that I may have made one move too many for injured players. This one is a toss up to me, but based on the information we have now, I'm giving it to myself.
Predictions: Gutman and Kumpf
NiJo Spot
Giving myself the second Wild Card isn't just a selfish move, it also makes this spot the most fun. If everything above comes true, then the current top five scoring teams will already be in and the race for 6th will be incredibly fun. Alan has the lead, but he has a Packers bye and a diminishing RB situation to worry about. That leaves Weissbard (30 points behind) as the team most likely to benefit, and no one wants to see his team in the playoffs. He loses his Seahawks this week, but has held on to Kyler for a situation just like this (albeit in a matchup against San Fran). This will be a close one, but I think Weiss does just enough to keep his title defense alive.
Prediction: Weissbard
Trade Grade 17
Gutman receives Jacob Hollister
Kumpf receives Vance McDonald
Blockbuster alert! This trade was deemed unworthy of Esco's valuable time, so I'll do the write up myself. Gutman gets a potentially promising Seattle TE to make up for losing Dissly earlier this year, which gives his biggest position of need some upside. I get Kittle insurance that's not on a bye this week, and is better than anyone on the waiver wire. Nothing splashy, but filling a practical need for both teams.
Gutman Grade: B-
Kumpf Grade: C+
Trade Grade 18
Barnard receives Brian Hill and Julian Edelman
Marco receives Melvin Gordon
This is a fun trade in that Barnard finally caved and traded Melvin after three months of it being obvious that he should, and that he did it for a white receiver, but in practical terms I have questions on both sides. For Marco, is Melvin enough of an upgrade over Damien Williams to drop from Edeleman to Marvin at WR1? He has depth behind Marvin, but his WR floor has dropped considerably. For Barnard, is losing Melvin's upside worth some stability at the WR position? While Marco got the most valuable asset, I think Barnard's logic makes slightly more sense, but the trade makes each team's (admittedly long shot) Stevens Bowl odds worse.
Barnard Grade: C
Marco Grade: C+
Trade Grade 19
Bennett receives Marlon Mack, John Brown, and Curtis Samuel
Weissbard receives Tyreek Hill
Just hours before the Trade Deadline, we got the blockbuster I feared, though it's not between any of the teams I anticipated. On the surface, it appears that both teams are out of it, but I've slept on it and now I really like this trade. To get to the NiJo spot, Bennett would need to pass 5 teams, which isn't really a reasonable ask, so his only playoff path is the Division/Wild Card. To do that, he needs the highest floor each week, instead of the highest ceiling overall, and nothing screams high floor/low ceiling more than Marlon Mack. His receivers are now a weekly crapshoot, but if he picks the right ones, he has a shot against an incredibly difficult schedule (Nick, AGD, Levine). He'll still need help to make it, but his 1.2% forecast is probably not that far off.
The real interesting team here is Weissbard. As mentioned above, his only path is the NiJo spot so it's all about points for our defending champ. None of the guys he gave up are likely to break 20 even in their best weeks, and Reek is a potentially 30+ points in his best weeks. The downgrade from Mack to Hyde isn't nothing, but I like the aggressiveness here.
Bennett Grade: B- (downgraded from a B because he fucked up the timing again)
Weissbard Trade: B- (downgraded from a B because he didn't find a way to get value for Kyler)
Week 11 Power Rankings
1. AGD (Last Week: 2)
2. Gutman (Last Week: 4)
3. Kumpf (Last Week: 1)
4. Levine (Last Week: 5)
5. Esco (Last Week: 6)
6. Nick (Last Week: 3)
7. Weissbard (Last Week: 9)
8. Alan (Last Week: 7)
9. Billy (Last Week: 8)
10. Marco (Last Week: 11)
11. Zacherman (Last Week: 13)
12. Barnard (Last Week: 10)
13. Bennett (Last Week: 12)
14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
Matchup of the Week: Esco vs. Gutman
Despite all the potential chaos in the league, this week doesn't have many clear-cut huge matchups with far-reaching implications. That leaves us with the Draft Planner Bowl. A win for Gutman essentially clinches the playoffs for him, while throwing the Zacherman Division into further chaos. A win for Esco puts him in great position for a division title, while creating huge questions in both the Wild Card and NiJo spots.
The only real bye/injury question is that Gutman loses Carson to a bye, giving us the closest thing to a full strength matchup in this space in quite a while. Looking at matchups, Esco has a clear edge overall, and we have a couple of huge games in Dallas/Detroit, New Orleans/Tampa, and a potentially huge RB matchup in Philly/New England that will be the last game for each team. Gutman's team has been resilient enough to be matchup-proof most weeks, but I think the loss of Carson combined with Esco's surge will prove to be too much this week.
Pick: Esco
MotW Record: 4-6
Gambling Corner - Week of 11/11
NFL Bets
Steelers (+3) at Browns - Loss
49ers (-11.5) vs. Cardinals - Loss
Patriots (-3) at Eagles - Win
Bears (+7) at Rams - Loss
Last Week: 2-1-1
2019 Record: 28-25-1 (-0.75 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
Wisconsin (-14) at Nebraska - Win
Kansas State (-14) vs. West Virginia - Loss
Baylor (+10) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Last Week: 7-0
2019 Record: 45-34-1 (+5.06 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Last Week: 1-1
2019-20 Record: 21-16-11 (+1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 13-7 (+2.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Last Week: 5-2
2019-20 Record: 9-8-4 (-0.02 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 4-1
2019-20 Record: 5-2 (+4.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
NBA Bets
Timberwolves (+3) at Pistons - Win
Celtics (-3.5) vs. Mavericks - Win
Grizzlies (+11) at Spurs - Win
Nuggets (-10) vs. Hawks - Loss
Jazz (-6.5) vs. Nets - Loss
Suns (+3) vs. Lakers - Loss
Celtics (-7) vs. Wizards - Push
Last Week: 2-2
2019 Record: 11-8-1 (+1.97 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)
NCAAB Bets
LSU (+3.5) at VCU - Win
Purdue (+1) at Marquette - Loss
Last Week: 4-2
2019-20 Record: 5-3 (+1.47 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)
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