Trade Grade 4
Ajay receives Adrian Peterson
Marco receives Dion Lewis and C.J. Anderson
Well this one took a turn quickly, but the grade goes for the value at the time. Ajay had an extremely dire situation at RB, and was able to turn guys that would only have potential value with an injury into a guy that already has value due to an injury. I don't think AP would be more than a flex option for most teams, but this is a huge upgrade for Ajay and also gives him the primary Washington ball carrier even if/when Guice comes back (not sure if that's a compliment). Marco obvious feels dumb for trading for a guy who was cut before the trade even went through, but handcuffs have more value in this league than in most. Even if it was just an AP for Lewis swap (which it basically is now), it's not terrible for Marco.
Ajay Grade: A-
Marco Grade: B-
Trade Grade 5
AGD receives Mike Evans, Mecole Hardman, and Ty Montgomery
Ajay receives D.J. Moore, Malcolm Brown, and Baker Mayfield
Blockbuster! AGD rectifies their Baker mistake by upgrading at WR, adding an upside WR, and getting Leveon's handcuff. It's truly amazing how much better they operate as a team, as they're basically Matt Damon and Greg Kinnear in Stuck on You. Evans hasn't looked elite yet this year, but his ceiling is unquestionably higher than Moore, and that makes a difference for a team with Chef hat aspirations. I don't hate this for Ajay either, as I assumed someone would trade rape him for a QB, yet he ends up with Baker (and the OBJ connection). Moore is a risk with the way Cam looks, but his target share will be high regardless, and he could end up outscoring Evans on the year. Given the way he's operated this week, I see a potential trade between Ajay and Nick at some point surrounding Brown. Well done by both sides here.
AGD Grade: A-
Ajay Grade: A
Trade Grade 6
Bennett receives Robert Woods and Matt Breida
Billy receives Antonio Brown
Reeeeeally hate this for Billy. I would value Woods over Brown on his own from a reliability perspective, but adding Breida to the mix and giving Bennett the surprisingly effective 49ers backfield is the cherry on top. Brown could end up as a top 5 receiver in an explosive offense, but at this point I think he's more likely to end up out of the league. Can't believe I'm saying this but by trading away an alleged rapist, Bennett became a trade rapist.
Bennett Grade: A+
Billy Grade: D
Trade Grade 7
Marco receives Chris Thompson
Weissbard received DK Metcalf
Marco couldn't last 48 hours without a Redskins RB, and he got one without really affecting his WR rotation. I'm surprised that Weissbard didn't need to work harder for a WR after his GroupMe plea, but the fact that Metcalf immediately becomes a starter speaks for itself. My immediate reaction when I saw this trade was "That's a very even trade that is unlikely to move the needle for either team," and the grades reflect that.
Marco Grade: B-
Weissbard Grade: B-
On to everyone else.
Week 3 Power Rankings
1. AGD (Last Week: 2)
Good News: Trades aside, the move of the season might be drafting Mark Andrews for $3.
Bad News: Watson seems like a torn ACL waiting to happen on every play (I'm aware that this is hypocritical based on my comments about the Baker pick, but there's not a lot to choose from).
2. Billy (Last Week: 1)
Good News: While the double goose eggs from Alshon and Njoku were unfortunate, they were unlikely to make up the 30 point gap between you and AGD.
Bad News: Those injuries lower your ceiling as you head into a potentially difficult (and definitely important) stretch of the schedule.
3. Gutman (Last Week: 4)
Good News: Through two weeks you have the #2 QB, two top 13 RBs, three top 20 WRs, and two top 7 TEs.
Bad News: None of that touches on your bench, and an injury would be potentially crippling considering the drop-off.
4. Kumpf (Last Week: 7)
Good News: I'm 2-0 without much help at all from the QB and TE positions.
Bad News: I might not be getting much help all season from the QB and TE positions.
5. Weissbard (Last Week: 5)
Good News: Despite a tough loss, your roster looks like it's in great shape at QB, RB, and TE.
Bad News: You're going to have to decide if you want to sacrifice your strengths to upgrade at WR, because things are looking bleak.
6. Alan (Last Week: 8)
Good News: Your roster is solid or better across the board, giving you one of the highest floors in the league.
Bad News: It feels like you're a player away from being a true contender, whether that's at RB2 or Flex.
7. Marco (Last Week: 11)
Good News: You continue to be open for business, which makes the league more fun and seems to be contagious (Now that's a true compliment).
Bad News: Your roster is a slightly lesser version of Alan's (Now that's a true insult).
8. Levine (Last Week: 6)
Good News: You took down an ominous Joseph team despite getting underperformances from a lot of roster spots.
Bad News: If Lamar comes back down to Earth, I'm not sure if the rest of the roster has enough juice to push you to your usual heights.
9. Nick (Last Week: 3)
Good News: A Brees injury, McCaffrey dud, and Desean goose egg are probably not going to happen in the same week again.
Bad News: As good as things looked last week, that's how bad they looked this week, exposing your true ceiling/floor.
10. Esco (Last Week: 10)
Good News: The beauty of depth is that when Cam, Duke, and Lindsay look like bad picks, you can replace them with Josh Allen, Tyrell, and Golladay.
Bad News: Your roster is a slightly lesser version of Marco's.
11. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)
Good News: It doesn't look like you'll have playoff heartbreak this year.
Bad News: JuJu lost Ben, Watkins wasn't great after you traded for him, Amendola put up a goose egg after you dropped $80+ on him, Singletary's hurt, etc.
12. Bennett (Last Week: 12)
Good News: You've done a shockingly good job putting together a WR group after what happened with Green/Tyreek/Gallup/AB.
Bad News: Depending on how Pitt's offense can function without Ben, once Coleman comes back you might not have a single reliable RB week-to-week.
13. Ajay (Last Week: 13)
Good News: Considering how absolutely terrible things looked last week, I'm honestly impressed that your built up a decent core with upside depth.
Bad News: This is still not a good team, and calling a matchup with Barnard "must-win" isn't a good sign for your season.
14. Barnard (Last Week: 14)
Good News: The first two weeks could not have gone any better (Brees injury aside), and two wins are banked.
Bad News: Relying on your defense for 25% of your total scoring is likely not a sustainable strategy.
Matchup of the Week: Billy vs. Levine
No undefeated matchups this week, so our one divisional matchup takes on the most importance here. The winner is at worst a game back of the division lead, while the loser puts itself in a bit of hole in the race for the automatic playoff spot. I was wrong about this last week, but Brady and Zeke might sit the entire second halves of their matchups again this week, opening the door for a thus-far underwhelming Levine squad. Combine that with a likely shootout in KC, and I can see Billy being in a bit of a hole early on. It also remains to be seen how Kamara can operate as the focal point of the offense, so to win this I think Billy needs the Bears D to outscore Robinson + Vernon on MNF. While anything is possible with Keenum at QB, I think Levine holds on in a close one.
Pick: Levine
MotW Record: 1-1
Gambling Corner - Week of 9/2
NFL Bets
Packers (-7) vs. Broncos - Win
Lions (+7) at Eagles - Win
Chargers (-3) vs. Texans - Loss
49ers (-7) vs. Steelers - Loss
Rams (-3) at Browns - Win
Last Week: 2-3
2019 Record: 8-7 (-0.15 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)
NCAAF Bets
USC (+4) vs. Utah - Win
Florida (-14) vs. Tennessee - Win
Michigan State (9.5) at Northwestern - Win
Wisconsin (-3) vs. Michigan - Win
Auburn (+3.5) at Texas A+M - Win
South Carolina (+10) at Missouri - Loss
West Virginia (-4) at Kansas - Win
Oregon (-10) at Stanford - Win
Oklahoma State (+6) at Texas - Push
Illinois (+14) vs. Nebraska - Win
Notre Dame (+14.5) at Georgia - Win
Last Week: 1-5
2019 Record: 14-12-1 (+0.96 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)
EPL Spread Bets
Bournemouth (+0.5) at Southampton - Win
Leicester City (+0.5) vs. Tottenham - Win
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Brighton - Push
Crystal Palace (Pick) vs. Wolves - Push
Last Week: 2-2-1
2019-20 Record: 11-9-7 (+.03 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)
EPL Moneyline Bets
Burnley (Even) vs. Norwich - Win
Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 5-3 (+0.12 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)
Champions League Spread Bets
Liverpool (Pick) at Napoli - Loss
Barcelona (Pick) at Dortmund - Push
Atletico Madrid (Pick) vs. Juventus - Push
2019-20 Record: 0-1-2 (-1.00 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)
Champions League Moneyline Bets
RB Leipzig (+170) at Benfica - Win
Club Brugge (-110) vs. Galatasaray - Loss
2019-20 Record: 1-1 (+0.70 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)
MLB Bets
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 75-75 (-5.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)
MLS Spread Bets
Last Week: 2-0
2019 Record: 13-12-5 (-1.37 units)
MLS Moneyline Bets
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 5-6 (+1.95 units)
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