Week 1 Recap

One week down and what a week it was. We had a little bit of everything: a new high score, a 100+ point win, the defending champ going down, a potentially big Tyreek injury, and even a Barnard win. And that doesn't even get into Zacherman's wild Wednesday. Even before the first (of hopefully many) in-season trades, we had some extremely irresponsible waiver bids. Z, I think Danny Amendola's mother would be surprised at that bid. Regardless, football is back and all is right with the world.


Trade Grade 3
Marco receives Kerryon Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald
Zacherman receives Devin Singletary and Sammy Watkins
There were a few batshit crazy stat lines in Week 1, none moreso than Sammy slamming the Jags. Obviously the Tyreek injury makes Watkins a no-doubt starter, but it's not like he's a young talent just getting his first shot. We've seen this story before and it usually ends with injury and/or underperformance. Conditions have never been better for him, but I think he's more likely to approximate 75% of Tyreek's production instead of 100%. Still valuable, but probably not worth giving up a starting RB when you aren't exactly overwhelming with backfield talent. Singletary looked good as well, but Gore and Yeldon still exist and Buffalo isn't an offense that's likely to produce fantasy studs. I don't hate the value overall for Z, but I think he's massively overreacting to Week 1 and ignoring his roster construction.

On Marco's side, he's done a great job of building up his depth, while dealing his studs, real (Hopkins) or perceived (Watkins). Kerryon didn't look great in Week 1, but I think he makes a great combo with Henry. And Fitz is somehow still not aging, and could potentially outscore Sammy for the rest of the season. I'm always in favor of selling high after Week 1, and Marco did a nice job here.

Marco Grade: B+
Zacherman Grade: C+


This year, I'm going to mix things up a little bit for the meat of these posts. Instead of the usual segments, I'm going back to the tried and true Power Rankings. These rankings won't be based on CPP or OAM or any of the acronyms I used back in my JnJ days. Instead, they come straight from the gut, looking a little bit at past performance but mainly how things look moving forward. This allows me to speak on each team every week, and I'm using that opportunity to look at things from both a positive and negative light.

Week 2 Power Rankings
1. Billy (Post Draft: t1)
Good News: The rich get richer, as Matt Breida is slated as the starter in San Fran, plugging the one real hole in your starting lineup.
Bad News: It will be impossible to choose between your trio of Texans receivers on a weekly basis, if it ever comes to that.

2. AGD (Post Draft: t10)
Good News: Your previously questionable depth does not appear to be as dire as I thought, given the explosions from John Ross and Malcolm Brown.
Bad News: Baker's rough start makes it impossible to sell high on him, which is really the only use he has on your team.

3. Nick (Post Draft: t3)
Good News: You haven't lost your touch, as everything you touched turned to gold in Week 1.
Bad News: Gurley's usage did not inspire confidence, and Henderson does not appear to be his handcuff at this point.

4. Gutman (Post Draft: t10)
Goods News: Lots to go around here, but to me the best news is that your depth seems like it has some serious upside.
Bad News: Other than your team name, you're going to have a very difficult flex decision every week.

5. Weissbard (Post Draft: t1)
Good News: Josh Jacobs looks like he might get a Saquon-like workload, as does Saquon.
Bad News: That WR performance did not look good, and the top-heaviness of your team makes trades difficult.

6. Levine (Post Draft: t7)
Good News: Lamar and your receivers should give you a very high floor on a weekly basis.
Bad News: Your RB situation is going to be a problem, as they are all involved in timeshares and none of them looked particularly good.

7. Kumpf (Post Draft: t5)
Goods News: I probably have the highest number of startable players in the league right now.
Bad News: I can't rely on everyone on my team scoring a TD every week, so Week 1 may have been my ceiling.

8. Alan (Post Draft: t12)
Good News: The Ekeler/Murray combo appears to be a viable starting RB strategy.
Bad News: The run/pass mix in Minnesota doesn't bode well for Thielen (or Cousins).

9. Zacherman (Post Draft: t3)
Good News: Ankle injury aside, Mahomes does not appear to be regressing to the mean.
Bad News: Your previously enviable RB depth may not even give you one reliable starter, even more so after your trade.

10. Esco (Post Draft: 9)
Good News: You had nine players score more than 8.5 points.
Bad News: You had five starters score less than 5.5 points.

11. Marco (Post Draft: t7)
Good News: Sammy Watkins may have seen his situation improve more than any other player after Week 1, which takes some of the sting off losing Hopkins. You used Sammy's huge week to upgrade at RB, and likely WR as well when Tyreek comes back.
Bad News: You may be the only team to lose to Barnard this year, which happened by just 2.1 points, and could have been avoided with better lineup decisions.

12. Bennett (Post Draft: t5)
Good News: You got to enjoy Wentz leading the Eagles' comeback as he got you 25 points.
Bad News: Your wide receivers make me laugh.

13. Ajay (Post Draft: t12)
Good News: If there was ever a week to put up 55 points, it's when your opponent puts up nearly 160.
Bad News: Other than "just playing better" I don't know what can be done to improve your situation.

14. Barnard  (Post Draft: 14)
Goods News: Brissett-to-Hilton showed way more life than I expected, and led you to a surprising win.
Bad News: Your RB situation somehow looks even worse than it did after the draft.

Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Billy
A heavyweight showdown already! The Old Bay Bowl features #1 vs. #2 in the power rankings and could go a long way towards determining who gets a bye at the end of the year. Unfortunately for AGD, Billy has the superior roster as well as the superior matchups this week. Their only hope is that Brady, Zeke and maybe Breida don't play the whole games if their teams are running up the score. Otherwise, I see this one as being as big of a blowout as we should see in Miami this week.
Pick: Billy
MotW Record: 1-0


Gambling Corner - Week of 9/2

NFL Bets
Titans (-3) vs. Colts - Loss
Seahawks (+4) at Steelers - Win
49ers (+2) at Bengals - Win
Saints (+3) at Rams - Loss
Jets (+3) vs. Browns - Loss
Last Week: 3-2
2019 Record: 5-5 (-0.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
North Carolina (+3) at Wake Forest - Loss
Washington State (-9) at Houston - Loss
NC State (-7) at West Virginia - Loss
Central Florida (-9) vs. Stanford - Win
USC (-4.5) at BYU - Loss
Iowa (-3) at Iowa State - Loss
Last Week: 4-4
2019 Record: 6-11 (-5.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Crystal Palace (+1.5) at Tottenham - Loss
Burnley (+0.5) at Brighton - Win
Sheffield (Pick) vs. Southampton - Loss
Bournemouth (Pick) vs. Everton - Win
Aston Villa (Pick) vs. West Ham - Push
Last Week: 0-2-2
2019-20 Record: 9-9-5 (-1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 4-3 (-0.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

MLB Bets

Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 75-75 (-5.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)

MLS Spread Bets
DC United (+1) at Portland - Win
Colorado (+1.5) at Toronto FC - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 13-12-5 (-1.37 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets
LA Galaxy (+135) vs. Sporting KC - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 5-6 (+1.95 units)