Playoff Odds
After Week 6:
No team has started 6-0
100% (5/5) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (2/8) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs
Alan's close loss continues this league's tradition of not having a 6-0 team since at least 2012. I think Z was something like 10-0 in 2010 before losing to yours truly, and Ajay went undefeated into the title game in the Cortesian era before losing to Teezy himself, but for these purposes, 5-0 appears to be the upper limit.
After Week 7:
No team has started 7-0
100% (4/4) of 6-1 teams made the playoffs
71% (5/7) of 5-2 teams made the playoffs
50% (5/10) of 4-3 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 3-4 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 2-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/3) of 1-6 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/1) of 0-7 teams made the playoffs
This week the biggest takeaway is that you want to be over .500 after Week 7. That means that 4 teams (Bruno, Marco, AGD and myself*) are as good as done already. It also means that this is a huge week for Barnard, Ajay, Weissbard, Zacherman and Esco, as they set their eyes on the playoffs. Alan, Gutman and BAM are the clear upper crust still, and will likely be fighting for the two byes.
*NIJO Rule Watch
As a reminder, the NIJO rule states:
The top five teams according to record get the top five seeds. Sixth seed goes to the highest scoring team outside the top five, unless that team is fourth or lower in points, in which case sixth seed goes to the team with the sixth best record. If the sixth place team according to record is in the top three in points, they are protected and automatically get the sixth seed, even if a team with a worse record has more points than them. Division winners get an automatic spot in the top six in the standings, but don't get any advantage with regard to seeding, and are not protected from the NIJO rule merely by virtue of being division winners.
I'm currently fifth in scoring despite being the 11th seed overall, and Zacherman is fourth despite being 7th overall. Both of us loom large as potential NIJO candidates down the road. The team that should be most afraid is Levine (6th seed, 10th in scoring), but Esco (9th seed, 9th in scoring) and even Weissbard (10th seed, 14th in scoring) will be vulnerable if they keep getting lucky wins. I'll be keeping track of this as the season progresses and I keep letting up 100+ points per week.
Team of the Week: AGD
This was an easy one. After five weeks of underachieving, and being last week's "Biggest Surprise of the Week," AGD came back with a vengeance. They earned the high score of the week while getting less than 10 points combined from their receivers. If they had started Torrey Smith and Sanu, they could have had the highest score all year one week after having the lowest score of the year, which is simply amazing. They still have a lot of ground to make up after a slow start, but I'm not ruling them out just yet (more to come on that).
Best Lineup Decision of the Week: BAM starting John Brown over Travis Benjamin or Philip Dorsett
Yes, they could have won easily if they started Spencer Ware over any of these guys, but choosing Brown was by no means a slam dunk. He put up over 1.5 points in only one game this year before Monday, and Arizona looked out of sorts, so I probably would have chosen Benjamin in this case. But BAM was proved correct, and in doing so ended the Masandaissance.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week: Alan :(
Apologies to Marco (Cousins over Stafford) and myself (Carr and Kelvin over Eli and JStew), but Alan cost himself a chance at 6-0 in spectacular fashion. He would have won if he made any of the following start/sit decisions:
- Ajayi over Bernard
- Ajayi over Enunwa
- Boyd over Crabtree
- Doyle over Enunwa
- Beasley over Robinson
- Beasley over Crabtree
- Beasley over Enunwa
Obviously Ajayi came out of nowhere, and Boyd/Doyle wouldn't have been smart process decisions. I would call Beasley/Enunwa a coin flip a the flex, but it has to hurt when you pulled Beasley at the last minute. Maybe Alan Can't Hang.
Biggest Surprise of the Week: Esco's single digits
He avoided the Christmas Card, but Esco's point total was completely unexpected. Not just that he finished in the 40s, but that he put up an incredible show of mediocrity. In the previous low scores by Weiss and AGD, they at least had one player reach double figures, albeit barely. Finishing a week without anyone having a good game is unprecedented in my memory.
Biggest Matchup of Week 7: Levine vs. AGD
None of our five 3-3 teams are facing each other, so this matchup becomes increasingly important due to NIJO rules. As previously mentioned, Levine needs to put up some points and stay above the 6th seed to avoid missing out on the playoffs, while AGD needs to win enough to qualify on their own, as Z and myself will likely trump them in NIJO rule priority. I really want to pick Levine and give him the Kumpf Kurse, but I just like AGD's team better this week, and they get their Texans on MNF to have the last word. AGD, consider yourself Kursed.
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