Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Week 5 Recap

Week 5 was an absolute dumpster fire for this league. Bruno's lineup decisions aside, the following players were all starting this week: Jacquizz Rodgers, Quincy Enunwa, Dontrelle Inman, Jesse James, Orleans Darkwa, Tyrell Williams, Terrance West, Jeremy Kerley, Jamison Crowder, Zach Zenner, DeAndre Washington, and Lance Kendricks. And that doesn't even include any of the players AGD started en route to 36.7 points. If the Christmas card contains anything less than explicit anal, I'll be disappointed.

Playoff Odds

After Week 5:
100% (1/1) of 5-0 teams made the playoffs
78% (7/9) of 4-1 teams made the playoffs
60% (6/10) of 3-2 teams made the playoffs
21% (3/14) of 2-3 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 1-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-5 teams made the playoffs

After Week 6:
No team has started 6-0
100% (5/5) of 5-1 teams made the playoffs
67% (8/12) of 4-2 teams made the playoffs
27% (3/11) of 3-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (2/8) of 2-4 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/4) of 1-5 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/2) of 0-6 teams made the playoffs

The playoff picture is starting to take shape. Alan and Gutman are looking like good bets, and BAM, Bennett and Esco have to be happy with their position as well. Beyond those 5 teams, I would say that Ajay, Zacherman and myself have the best chance to join the party, with Barnard and Levine looming as dark horses. That leaves Marco, Bruno, Weissbard and AGD as good as done. Of those four teams, I'm only willing to truly write off Weiss and Bruno, but another loss from Marco or AGD will be the nail in the coffin.


Team of the Week - Zacherman

He sold his soul to the devil, but it might actually work. After struggling without Brady and Gronk (who he still started twice anyway), and then losing Dez, it would have been easy to write off this team. But this week showed us what Z is capable of. Still without Dez, he had Brady, Gronk, Jordy and Murray combine for 65. If his other four lineup spots can put up even 5 points each, he can compete every week. There is a clear hole at RB2 and Flex, but we could look back at Week 5 as the start of a run by Z.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Weissbard sticking with Martellus Bennett

The Pats offense has been pretty difficult to figure out this year. Between Brady's suspension, injuries to Gronk and Lewis, and their stable of white receivers, it's hard to rely on anyone confidently. With Brady back and Gronk healthy, you could forgive Weissbard for going to the waiver wire for TE help, rather than risk Brady being out of sync with the Black Unicorn. He showed faith, and the Unicorn rewarded him.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Ajay starting Jeremy Hill over Tevin Coleman

Yes, Coleman was going up against Denver's D. But their biggest weakness is stopping the run, as well as stopping pass-catching RBs, which fits Coleman to a tee. Combine that with Hill being banged up all week, and this was at least a decision that needed to be made. Ajay made the wrong one, and it cost him the win.


Biggest Surprise of the Week - AGD

I could chalk this up as biggest surprise of the season as well. AGD has the best overall record since this league began, has made the Stevens Bowl the last two years, and won it once. Maybe you could say that they were due for a rough year. But I liked their team well enough post-draft, and despite losing Dion Lewis immediately, they lucked into Christine Michael. They got hit pretty hard with byes this week, but even at full strength, the ceiling for this team is pretty low.


Biggest Matchup of Week 6 - BAM vs. Alan

While I personally think that me vs. Z is going to be more important in the long run, as the loser drops to a very tenuous 2-4, a battle between our top two teams by points scored will be more entertaining. This also gives Alan the opportunity to be our first 6-0 team in the last four years. Given that my track record in picking the winner of these matchups isn't great, I'm going to pre-emptively apologize to Alan for picking him. We'll see if the stench of my pick is enough to take the luster off the Masandaissance.

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