Week 1 Rankings

Real football starts in a few hours, but how can we go into Week 1 without knowing which team in our fake league is the strongest? If only there was some all-knowing statistic that could be used to rank each team in a subjective and slightly objective manner. What’s that? You know of a statistic like that? My God, that’s the CPP’s music!

After spending nine months and a lockout in hibernation, this is the triumphant return of the CPP! As a reminder to the FALAFEL veterans, as well as an introduction to Billy, CPP stands for Composite Points Projection. As it turns out, this does not actually project weekly scores, but does provide a way to rank each team in our league outside of their record. The CPP is calculated by Gutman and includes points scored in the past as well as projected points in the future, among other factors. It also incorporates the OAM (Owner Awareness Multiplier), which I calculate so the CPP is not entirely Gutman-biased. The OAM includes transactions made as well as actual vs. optimal lineup performance. In short, it measures how well you manage your own team.

Before we get to the main event, I’m going to preview the format of the rankings this year. A lot has changed since last season, namely that I’m now busy at work, looking for another job in Texas, and we have a blog as a platform. This means that the rankings will be more succinct (no more non-FALAFEL thoughts or REALITY CHECK!), but I will try to complement them with more material on the blog.
Having said that, there is still one section that’s not going anywhere…

Bitching About Kicking
I would like to thank Commissioner Shah for changing the kicking scoring system to the Yahoo standard, I consider that a small moral victory. But I still think that kickers are entirely useless from a fantasy perspective, and that if we want to masquerade them as real fantasy players, then we need to give them negative points just like anyone else.

So this year I will be showing how entirely unpredictable kickers are by selecting a kicker at random each week using a kicker Excel file, and comparing their score with that of the top ranked kicker on ESPN for the week. I’m fully aware that none of you care, but I’m doing this to prove a point to myself as much as anything.
So for Week 1, ESPN’s top kicker is Nate Kaeding, and my random kicker is Mike Nugent of the Bengals. We’ll see once and for all if strategy works for kickers or if it is truly random.

Week 1 Rankings

1. AGD – CPP: 87.54
I really don’t like that a team that wasn’t even at the draft, and has two owners, gets to start the league in first place, but you do have a solid team. Apparently Yahoo agrees, as they picked you as the top team after the draft on our league home-page. I still laugh when I see that you have Eli and Sanchez, but this week it shouldn’t hurt you. Nice matchups all around in Week 1, as you’ll get some questions answered about Hillis, who should run all over the Bungles, and Maclin, who should be featured in the shootout with the Rams. You get the added benefit of the league rooting for you so Bennett starts the season with a loss.

2. Zacherman – CPP: 81.84
I’m fully aware that you think you’re woefully underrated as the #2 team in this week’s rankings, but I really couldn’t care less. While I do love your starting lineup, you’re a little thin on the bench when it comes to experience. Julio, Cam, Kendricks and Alex Green are all rookies, and Beanie has yet to ever look like a pro, so your team will likely get off to slower start than you might like, especially if someone gets hurt. I still say you take down Joseph’s abomination of a team.

3. Alan – CPP: 80.2
Last year you had to deal with the burden of being the defending champ. No Super Bowl champ has repeated since the Pats in 2003, and in the 40ish fantasy leagues I’ve been in only 1 team has ever repeated. So don’t be sad Alan, get mad! And if you need any more motivation, you get to face-off against your big brother in Week 1, the same big brother who stole the 69 that was rightfully yours. So despite the fact that you actually have to choose between Plax/Driver/a guy I’ve never heard of as your WR2, I think Karma will be on your side for this week. But you do need to fix that receiver situation ASAP.

4. (tie) Weissbard – CPP: 78.08
You and I actually have the same exact CPP, but I gave you a higher draft grade, and you just got back to civilization, so you can go first this week. The thing that benefits your team the most this week is the schedule. The Jets play the Cowboys Sunday night, and I’m sure with the super-charged 9/11 Anniversary atmosphere, they will look to make a statement to open the season. Assuming they win, the Pats will be half a game back in the division for a good 20 hours. That should be more than enough motivation for Brady and Co. to go out and prove that they are just as good as the Green Men from Jersey. I can see Brady torching the Fins for 40+ easy. That should help you overcome the fact that you’re starting 2 backup RBs from teams that won’t finish .500.

4. (tie) Kumpf – CPP: 78.08
I just realized that I have 4 Lions on my roster, and none of them are Calvin or Stafford. I don’t know exactly what that means, but it’s probably the first time anyone has ever had that situation. After last year’s Favre debacle at QB, I’m putting a lot of faith in Schaub to carry me this year, and luckily he gets to do it against Kerry Collins Week 1. I face off against my CPP counterpart, and I believe I’m something like 1-6 all-time against Gutguy. Hopefully Vick just hands that ball to McCoy and I start 1-0, but I doubt it.

6. Joseph – CPP: 77.32
Times like this make me doubt the CPP system. Obviously NiJo has A-Rod and CJ2K. But that’s it. Literally. His receivers are nauseating, he’s starting a Patriots RB as well as their backup tight end, and he’s not even giving playing time to his $9 investment, Roy Williams. You better hope Rodgers to Jordy catches fire all night tonight, otherwise you’ll be playing catchup to Z all weekend.

7. Lutz – CPP: 77.08
Week 1 is typically an adjustment week in the first place, but your matchup is all about getting comfortable. Weissbard’s first week back in the states, Billy’s first week in the league. I really don’t like that you’re starting both LT and Reggie with Harvin on the bench, but I guess RBs tend to be more reliable than migraine-prone receivers. I still say that Brees and Foster can carry you in this league, provided they stay healthy and stop tweeting their MRI results.

8. Kimmel – CPP: 74.44
I’ve lost what little respect I had for you from a fantasy perspective this past baseball season. For those who don’t know, Kimmel, myself, Ware, Steve-O and Nayak have been in a fantasy baseball keeper league for 5 years now with some of Steve-O’s friends from home. Kimmel has never finished better than 7th out of 10. He backed out of the league this year, giving his team to Ajay, who is about to be the first person other than Nayak to win the championship. What does this mean for our league? Let’s just say I’m not surprised that Manning is out Week 1, Cassel has bruised ribs, Britt is constantly in legal trouble, Gore in injury-prone, Colston has no ACLs, Knowshon and Mathews haven’t ever had success, and Mike Thomas currently is being thrown to by Luke McCown. That sounds like a Kimmel-managed team to me.

9. Esco – CPP: 72.38
As much as I like your team due to its depth, you can only start seven players a week. Over the course of the season, I’m sure the depth will pay off, but for now it just leaves you with some tough roster decisions. Bradford throwing to Asomugha or Cutler throwing to the entire city of Atlanta? Rice running into Ray Lewis and Benson punching women or Daniel Thomas backing up Reggie against the Pats’ porous defense? Austin Collie with Kerry Collins throwing to him or Sidney Rice with Tarvaris Whitehurst running the offense? If Ajay’s RBs weren’t so terrible I would say you would start the year with a loss, but even if you win this will be the lowest scoring matchup of the week.

10. Gutman – CPP: 71.5
I’m sensing a pattern in how you draft. Last year it was Manning/Moss and shit for RBs, this year it’s Vick/Dre and more shit for RBs. Let’s see how that worked out for you: Moss was insanely useless, you traded him to me in a big time Trade Rape, Manning had a typically solid year, and you missed the playoffs. This year I have a hard time seeing either Vick or Andre becoming irrelevant, but Vick will miss time, and you haven’t really changed the formula from a non-playoff strategy last year. I’m fully aware that you will beat me Week 1, but long-term you gotta make some changes.

11. (tie) Bennett – CPP: 70.5
This was too good to be true. The two least respected members of the league tying for 11th place in the CPP rankings, only ahead of two teams starting UFL runningbacks. I actually like your team a lot this week Bennett. Your RBs will likely have some trouble with their respective matchups, but everyone else looks solid. I’m a little surprised you didn’t draft more RBs though. If Forte or Mendenhall goes down, or has a bye week, Roy Helu does not exactly inspire confidence as a fill-in. With the depth you have at receiver, I see a trade in your future.

11. (tie) Barnard – CPP: 70.5
I’m baffled that Yahoo only has AP projected at 13 points. He literally set the single game rushing record the last time he played the Chargers. Things have changed since then, but you’d think he’s pretty confident going into the game this week. Lance Moore’s injury hurts, and I’m not sure if I’d rather start Deion Branch or Plax in our league, I’m just glad I don’t have to make that decision. Either way, you play Donnie, you get a win. I feel like I’ll be saying that all season long.

13. Ajay – CPP: 66.92
I think you’re going to have a tale of 2 seasons. You’ll start slow, winning some games just by Romo and your trio of receivers outscoring teams, and then Barnard will lose Matt Ryan to a torn ACL. You’ll have the tough choice of giving up Stafford for Fred Jackson, or Romo for Steven Jackson. You decide to play it risky and trade Romo, adding S-Jax to an emerging Ingram as a tough RB combo, and ride the highest scoring team into the playoffs. Then again, if no QBs go down, you’re shit out of luck.

14. Donnie – CPP: 65.86
I realize that you had no power during the draft and you were stuck with a terrible team from the start, but how the fuck do you enter the draft an immediately draft your 4th tight end? And worse than that, how are you starting him over Daniels and Olsen. Literally every fantasy “expert” is calling for a terrible season from Gonzalez, and it’s not like you don’t have other options. It makes me angry that your team is set up so poorly. But then it makes me happy to see that your RBs are being started by a combined 3% of teams in Yahoo leagues. Best of luck to you sir, you’ll need it.

That’s all for Week 1. Enjoy football, gentlemen.