Week 9 Recap

Time for my favorite post of the year, the Mock Trade Deadline Preview! Let's get right to it, starting with the trades that already happened, including one that counts as my final big swing at a Chef's Coat. Take it away Esco...

Trade Grade 15
Kumpf receives Jameis Winston, JD McKissic, and Adam Thielen
Marco receives Philip Rivers, Damien Williams, and Marvin Jones
Thielen is the best player in the trade, but also the biggest question mark. At minimum he will miss 40% of the 5 regular season games remaining (this week and his week 12 bye) and I wouldn’t be surprised if he misses more.  If he gets healthy and stays healthy this is a big win for Kumpf who probably would have one of the strongest starting 5 (2RB, 2WR, FLEX) in the league. However, this seems to be a nagging injury with an unpredictable timeline (see David Johnson, Cam Newton). The worst-case scenario is Thielen starts multiple games but leaves early as he did last week, costing your team the W (see Marco Week 9). I also hate the idea of relying on Jameis Winston in the fantasy playoffs. Despite his recent success, I wouldn’t be surprised if he is benched or has multiple negative scoring games with his history. Overall, high upside but also a much higher potential for a devastating loss in the playoffs so really a win for all of us.

Marco needs to likely win out to make the playoffs and this trade helps him get there. I think the biggest concern for me is honestly J.D. McKissic. The fact the Lions have seen Ty Johnson all year and instead gave the ball to Tra Carson off the street is a huge red flag and McKissic may end up getting to viable RB2 level before Ty ever does.
Kumpf Grade: A-
Marco Grade: B

Trade Grade 16
Bennett receives Nyheim Hines, Tyrell Williams, and Gerald Everett
Esco receives James White, Trey Edmunds, and Dallas Goedert
This really messed up two mock trades for me, but I'll try to not let that skew my rating. I think the trade is fair overall, but don't really get the need for this specific trade for either team. Bennett loses a handcuff for Conner and adds another WR2 type to his slew of options there. I guess there's a TE upgrade? For Esco, he balances his roster better, but I would have thought he could get more for one of his WRs, even if he had to deal one of the top three. Can't really complain about either side, but nothing Earth-shattering here.
Bennett Grade: B-
Esco Grade: B

Mock Trade 1
Ajay receives Kenyan Drake and Emmanuel Sanders
Zacherman receives Tony Pollard and Odell Beckham Jr.
Let's get these guys out of the way early. This gives Ajay complete ownership of the backfields in Arizona and Washington, which is a pretty good symbol of his season so far. It also makes him less reliant on Cleveland, which has been an abusive relationship so far. As for Z, he adds Odell to his group of high ceiling players and gives him the best shot of winning a weekly prize and Rivalry Week. I've already talked too much about these teams.

Mock Trade 2
Gutman receives Evan Engram
Nick receives Miles Sanders
Given the teams involved here, and their NFL allegiances, the chances of this happening are less than zero, but it would help balance their rosters. Gutman's TE position has been snake bitten all year, and Engram, while potentially injured, raises the floor there considerably. He would take a hit at flex, but between Davante Parker and Hollywood Brown, his replacements aren't terrible. Nick would have the RB positions for the Panthers, Rams, and Eagles cornered, which would make him the bizarro Ajay. And his relatively depth at TE also allows him to diversify from his continued shocking reliance on the Giants passing game.

Mock Trade 3
Billy receives Lamar Jackson, Aaron Jones, and Jamaal Williams
Levine receives Tom Brady, Ezekiel Elliott, and Royce Freeman
This would be a huge trade, and one that I don't think either team really needs to make, but would be fun nonetheless. Billy gets a true stud in Lamar, while only slightly downgrading at RB, and most importantly, not having to root for Brady anymore. Levine gets to make an upgrade at RB and remove the Packers RB situation from being a weekly headache. The downgrade from Lamar to Brady hurts, but Tom's been uncharacteristically average so far this year, so he may have some upside left..

Mock Trade 4
Alan receives Marlon Mack, John Brown, and DK Metcalf
Weissbard receives David Montgomery, Davante Adams, and Cole Beasley
I'm as surprised as you are that Weissbard's trade doesn't include Kyler, does include two Bills WRs, and also involves him re-acquiring Montgomery, but here we are. Alan needs reliability at RB, and there is no one more reliable in terms of his role than Mack. Brown and Metcalf would combine with Sutton to give him inconsistent upside at WR, but I'd prefer my boom/bust players at receiver, especially when Alan is leading his division. Weissbard, on the other hand, is only making the playoffs in the NiJo spot, so he needs ceiling. If Davante is truly healthy, he can combine with the rest of Dan's roster to explode over the rest of the season. If he busts, Weiss probably wasn't making it anyway. This trade would take balls, so I doubt Alan would do it.

Mock Trade 5
AGD receives Devonta Freeman and TY Hilton
Barnard receives Dare Ogunbowale and Mike Evans
Another ballsy trade that I can't see happening, but there is logic here. AGD is the favorite right now, but their two weaknesses are over-reliance on two RBs that might not deliver, and Mike Evans' lack of consistency. Bringing in Freeman and Hilton would make their starting lineup extremely formidable, and would add the consistency needed for the playoffs. For Barnard, he gets a stud with a high ceiling in Evans, which his team lacks right now, and a player whose last name he won't even attempt to pronounce in public.


Week 10 Power Rankings

1. Kumpf (Last Week: 2)

2. AGD (Last Week: 1)

3. Nick (Last Week: 4)

4. Gutman (Last Week: 5)

5. Levine (Last Week: 7)

6. Esco (Last Week: 6)

7. Alan (Last Week: 8)

8. Billy (Last Week: 3)

9. Weissbard (Last Week: 9)

10. Barnard  (Last Week: 11)

11. Marco (Last Week: 12)

12. Bennett (Last Week: 10)

13. Zacherman (Last Week: 13)

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)


Playoff Picture
If the playoffs started today:
1. AGD (Bye) - Best Record, Weissbard Division Champ
2. Alan (Bye) - Levine Division Champ
3. Gutman - Wild Card 1
4. Barnard - Wild Card 2
5. Nick - Zacherman Division Champ
6. Kumpf - NiJo Rule

Somehow, no one has been eliminated from the Division or Wild Card spots yet.


Matchup of the Week: Barnard vs. Levine
If Marco upsets Nick, the Zacherman Division could be destined for chaos, but this matchup conceivably affects the other five playoff spots. A Levine win will likely put him in the playoffs over Barnard, while a Barnard win makes it very difficult for Levine to claw his way back in. As for the matchup itself, similar to last week, the MotW is marred by a one-sided bye situation. Nick was able to overcome his byes thanks to CMC last week, but Barnard missing his best player and Sony seems like it will be too much. The path to victory for Barnard involves a Melvin heavy Chargers win on Thursday, followed by the Falcons putting up 30+ on the Saints, and the Panthers shutting down the Packers RBs. Even then, he will need Lamar to get hurt and the Colts D to break 20 against Miami. Not impossible, but not likely. Between the teams that have been my Rivals the past two years, I'm #Kursing my first one.
Pick: Levine
MotW Record: 3-6


Gambling Corner - Week of 11/4

NFL Bets
Raiders (+1.5) vs. Chargers - Win
Saints (-13) vs. Falcons - Loss
Ravens (-10) at Bengals - Win
Bills (+3) at Browns - Push
Last Week: 1-4
2019 Record: 27-22-1 (+1.51 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Washington (-10) at Oregon State - Win
Florida State (+3) at Boston College - Win
Purdue (+3) at Northwestern - Win
Miami (-6.5) vs. Louisville - Win
USC (+1.5) at Arizona State - Win
Kansas State (+7) at Texas - Win
Notre Dame (-7) at Duke - Win
Last Week: 4-2
2019 Record: 43-33-1 (+4.32 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Crystal Palace (+1.5) at Chelsea - Loss
Liverpool (Pick) vs. Manchester City - Win
Last Week: 3-3-1
2019-20 Record: 21-16-11 (+1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Newcastle (+160) vs Bournemouth - Win
Burnley (+125) vs. West Ham - Win
Manchester United (-145) vs. Brighton - Win
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 13-7 (+2.88 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets
Chelsea (-0.5) vs. Ajax - Loss
Lyon (-0.5) vs. Benfica - Win
Olympiacos (+2.5) at Bayern Munich - Win
Shakhtar (+0.5) at Dinamo Zagreb - Win
Atalanta (+1) vs. Manchester City - Win
Real Madrid (-2) vs. Galatasaray - Win
Red Star (+1) vs. Tottenham - Loss
Last Week: 1-2-1
2019-20 Record: 9-8-4 (-0.02 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets
Zenit (+210) vs. RB Leipzig - Loss
Valencia (Even) vs. Lille - Win
Dortmund (+120) vs. Inter Milan - Win
Lyon (+105) vs. Benfica - Win
Leverkusen (+195) vs. Atletico Madrid - Win
Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 5-2 (+4.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

NBA Bets
Hawks (+2.5) vs. Kings - Loss
Jazz (+3) vs. Bucks - Win
Celtics (+1) at Spurs - Win
Hornets (+1.5) vs. Pelicans - Loss
Last Week: 2-0
2019 Record: 8-5 (+2.32 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

NCAAB Bets
Duke (+2.5) vs. Kansas (Neutral Site) - Win
Virginia Tech (+7) at Clemson - Win
NC State (-7) vs. Georgia Tech - Loss
Wisconsin (+5) vs. St. Mary's - Win
North Carolina (-9.5) vs. Notre Dame - Win
Baylor (-5) vs. Washington (Neutral Site) - Loss
2019-20 Record: 4-2 (+1.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)

MLS Spread Bets
Final 2019 Record: 15-12-5 (+0.33 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets
Final 2019 Record: 9-10 (-0.75 units)

Week 8 Recap

In most years, the cream of the crop has made itself clear by Week 8. This is not most years. The following statements are all true:

• Barnard has scored the 7th most points in the league.
• Barnard has no top 15 RBs, top 20 WRs, or top 12 TEs.
• Barnard's best position player by rank is Matt Stafford at QB9.
• Barnard has allowed the 3rd most points in the league, ahead of only Ajay and Z (who don't get to play themselves).
• Barnard is 6-2.
• Nick has scored the 3rd most points in the league.
• Nick has two top 20 RBs (including RB1), two top 20 WRs (including WR2), two top 10 TEs, and also Drew Brees.
• Nick has allowed the 4th fewest points in the league.
• Nick is 4-4.

That my friends is what we call a paradox. I have continually gotten shit for the Power Rankings not being predictive, but I don't know how much better I can do other than say stuff like "Barnard will probably win by less than 5 or lose by 50+" or "Alan will keep getting 30 point days from backup RBs."

Anyway, this week is Part 1 of my Trade Deadline preview. I will outline the area of most depth and biggest need for each team, which will hopefully get those trade juices flowing. Next week, I will follow up with the usual mock trades.

Trade Grade 14
Barnard receives Calvin Ridley and Daniel Fells
Nick receives Jordan Howard and Eric Ebron

On the surface, this can't be viewed as anything other than a trade rape by Barnard. Ridley is by far the best asset here, and is only going to look better as the Falcons adjust to life without Sanu, while Howard will likely see his role diminsh over time. However, Howard can play this week (with Sanders banged up) while Ridley is on a bye. Barnard can afford the loss, which was likely coming anyway, but an RB upgrade for Nick could be the difference between a win and a loss against Alan. I still give Alan the edge though, and playing for one week isn't the way to get a chef's coat. If Nick makes the playoffs by one game thanks to a win this week, I'll eat my words, but I have a feeling he just cemented Barnard's spot in the playoffs.
Barnard Grade: A
Nick Grade: C

Week 9 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
Most Depth: Receiver? For a team this good, they are incredibly reliant on their core of starters. If Kareem Hunt becomes relevant then that will change, but as previously mentioned in this space, they've already made their trades.
Biggest Need: Flex. Aside from potentially Hunt, if they want a reliable option in this spot every week, they'll need to trade a stud for two starters.

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 2)
Most Depth: Flex. Between Damien Williams, Darrell Henderson, Marvin Jones, and Mike Williams, I have a number of guys that can fill this role every week.
Biggest Need: QB. Barring an unexpected resurgence from my LA bros, this will be my Achilles heel.

3. Billy (Last Week: 3)
Most Depth: RB. He's only got three of them, but they would all be RB2 or better for most other teams.
Biggest Need: WR. Billy trading Royce for a WR seems like a relatively obvious move, but it leaves him even more perilously thin at RB. A move involving one of his handcuffs probably makes the most sense even if Latavius's price is probably too high.

4. Nick (Last Week: 7)
Most Depth: Flex? Similar to AGD, Nick's lineup is his lineup, with little to no help on the bench. Unlike AGD, he doesn't have a rock solid WR2, but instead a few options that may be appealing.
Biggest Need: Depth. Also similar to AGD, he's an injury away from plummeting down these rankings. Unlike AGD, he may have already experienced that injury with the way that Gurley is being used.

5. Gutman (Last Week: 5)
Most Depth: Upside flex. Miles Sanders and Hollywood Brown could both be assets over the second half of the season, so teams in need of upside may be interested.
Biggest Need: TE. Those Will Dissly weeks seem so far away. If Gut wants some reliability at TE, I can see a trade working nicely here.

6. Esco (Last Week: 6)
Most Depth: WR. This is one of the only teams that can deal from its position of strength and not really be affected. The only question is which WR will he have to part with for an upgrade elsewhere?
Biggest Need: RB. Ingram and Lindsay aren't terrible, but for a team that should have playoff dreams, you have to make an upgrade there.

7. Levine (Last Week: 4)
Most Depth: TE. I'm high on Herndon once he sees the field, so dealing Henry might be a sneaky way for Levine to upgrade his squad.
Biggest Need: RB2. He has a lot of startable options but nothing clear cut beyond Jones.

8. Alan (Last Week: 10)
Most Depth: RB2-3. While he has no RB1s despite Ekeler and Murray looking amazing when they have opportunities, Alan has five RBs that are flex-worthy at the very least.
Biggest Need: RB1. A 2-for-1 or even 3-for-1 consolidation trade makes a lot of sense here but is always hard to pull off.

9. Weissbard (Last Week: 8)
Most Depth: QB. Weissbard's continued lack of a QB trade is puzzling given the promise elsewhere on the roster.
Biggest Need: WR1. A QB/WR for WR1 trade seems too obvious here.

10. Bennett (Last Week: 12)
Most Depth: WR. What a roller coaster this position on this team has been, but there are a lot of options that can upgrade the flex situation on other teams.
Biggest Need: TE. Other positions aren't in great shape, but the TE situation is dire.

11. Barnard  (Last Week: 11)
Most Depth: RB2-3. No studs here but a lot of startable options.
Biggest Need: WR. Another obvious trade likely coming.

12. Marco (Last Week: 9)
Most Depth: WR2-3. Marco's team is fairly balanced, but if he makes a move it will involve a WR (or QB if anyone wants to ride the Jameis train).
Biggest Need: RB2. Henry isn't a no-doubt RB1, but close enough in this league. Shady is not an RB2, and after losing Kerryon, this is where Marco needs help.

13. Zacherman (Last Week: 13)
Most Depth: QB. Not necessarily depth, but Mahomes is the only trade chip on this team and I don't see Z moving him.
Biggest Need: Everything else. Tevin looked good last week, and JuJu made a crazy catch, but there's not a position that couldn't use an upgrade.

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
Most Depth: ???
Biggest Need: A time machine back to August.


Matchup of the Week: Alan vs. Nick
There are as many as four great options for MotW this week, all with playoff implications. But Barnard's record means he's still in the hunt even when he loses to AGD, Me/Marco may prove to be more relevant at the end of the season than it is now, and Gutman/Levine is potentially huge but both teams can bounce back from a loss.

That leaves us with Alan and Nick in a contender vs. pretender showdown. This is the MotW due to the trickle down effect of each outcome. A win by Alan would potentially give him a 2-game division lead and 3-game lead over me and Billy. It would also create some chaos in Nick's division if Esco and Marco win. On the flip side, a Nick victory would have the opposite effect in the divisions and would make the NiJo spot an extremely tight race.

So who wins it? Byes are obviously a monumental issue for Nick, but injuries will play a big factor as well. Not just if Davante suits up (looks like he might), but the injuries to Flacco, Kerryon Johnson, and even JJ Watt will play a part in this outcome. If Adams plays, the Rodgers/Adams/Ekeler trio should boom for Alan. Nick's only real shot at that kind of upside is with CMC and shockingly Gardner Minshew. I'm rooting for Nick for selfish reasons, but there are too many things lined up nicely for Alan.
Pick: Alan
MotW Record: 3-5


Gambling Corner - Week of 10/21

NFL Bets
Redskins (+10) at Bills - Loss
Lions (+3) at Raiders - Loss
Packers (-3) at Chargers - Loss
Patriots (-4) at Ravens - Loss
Cowboys (-7) at Giants - Win
Last Week: 3-1
2019 Record: 25-21 (+0.63 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NFL Win Total Bets Checkin
Good
Falcons under 9
Bills over 6.5
Bears under 9
Lions over 6.5
Colts over 6.5
Redskins under 6.5

Bad
Giants over 6
Eagles over 9.5

Ugly
Bengals over 6
Packers under 9.5
Niners under 8

NCAAF Bets
Purdue (+3) vs. Nebraska - Win
Kansas State (-6.5) at Kansas - Win
Washington (+3.5) vs. Utah - Loss
Mississippi State (-7) at Arkansas - Win
Virginia (+3) at North Carolina - Win
TCU (+3) at Oklahoma State - Loss
Last Week: 5-4
2019 Record: 36-33-1 (-1.63 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Bournemouth (+0.5) vs. Manchester United - Win
Aston Villa (+1.5) vs. Liverpool - Win
Newcastle (+0.5) at West Ham - Win
Norwich (+1) at Brighton - Loss
Burnley (+0.5) at Sheffield - Loss
Watford (+1) vs. Chelsea - Push
Crystal Palace (+0.5) vs. Leicester City - Loss
Last Week: 2-2-1
2019-20 Record: 20-15-11 (+1.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Arsenal (-125) vs. Wolves - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 10-7 (-0.66 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets

Last Week: 1-2-1
2019-20 Record: 4-6-4 (-2.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 1-1 (+0.30 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

MLB Bets
2019 Record: 77-77 (-5.55 units)
Updated Historical Win Percentage: 46.12% (-12.33 units)

NBA Bets
Cavs (+2) vs. Bulls - Win
Celtics (+3.5) vs. Bucks - Win
Last Week: 4-3
2019 Record: 6-3 (+2.50 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

MLS Spread Bets
Seattle (+1.5) at LAFC - Win
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 15-12-5 (+0.33 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets
Atlanta (-125) vs. Toronto FC - Loss
Last Week: 2-1
2019 Record: 9-10 (-0.75 units)

Week 7 Recap

We're at a bit of a crossroads for the 2019 season, as more than half of the regular season is complete, but we still have three weeks until the trade deadline. Given that position in the schedule, I think it makes sense to take another look at each of the playoff races, followed by a quick hit power ranking:

Weissbard Division Champ
AGD has a one game lead here for the division, bye, and best regular season record, and they're (spoiler alert) at the top of the Power Rankings yet again. They have a relatively difficult remaining schedule (already having played Z and Ajay) which includes pivotal head to heads with Gutman and Barnard. I assume one or both of these will be Matchups of the Week, and a sweep for AGD will all but guarantee a division title. If Gutman and/or Barnard pull the upset, then we have ourselves a race.
Prediction: AGD

Levine Division Champ
Despite the superior records on top of the Weissbard division, this is best and most competitive division. Alan has a one game lead right now, but he has already played Z and Ajay and ends the season with Billy and Levine back to back. Billy, Levine, and I all have stronger rosters and slightly easier schedules, so odds are that at least one of us passes Alan. My best guess is that one of these teams goes 8-5, while the other three go 7-6. I know I'll get shit for this, but given my roster and with Z and Ajay (and Barnard) still on my schedule. I think I have the best odds.
Prediction: Kumpf

Zacherman Division Champ
This is the Junior Varsity division, but it still has three teams vying for a potentially below .500 division title. Esco has the easiest remaining schedule, and a more consistent team than Nick so I'm giving him a slight edge as things stand now. However, I strongly believe that these three teams have some moves up their sleeves. Nick is getting Brees back and has been shopping CMC, while Esco has clear upgrade opportunities, and Marco makes trades because he's bored. This has the potential to get really fun, or stay sad.
Prediction: Esco

Wild Cards
These two spots are realistically only possible for the teams that don't win the Weissbard or Levine divisions. It's tough to pick between them right now, as I would give the team quality advantage to Billy and Levine, but Gutman and Barnard have a one game lead on them. I'll split the baby here and pick one team from each.
Predictions: Gutman and Levine

NiJo Spot
Record and schedule don't matter here, so points already scored is the easiest way to look at this one. Alan currently has a lead of 11.4 over Nick, 30.1 over Barnard, and 65 over everyone else, with Billy and Weissbard as the teams most likely to make up ground. In general I think Billy's team is the strongest of this group, but Alan's current lead is a little bit too large for me to predict a collapse there.
Prediction: Alan

Current Projection:
1. AGD (Bye)
2. Kumpf (Bye)
3. Gutman
4. Levine
5. Esco
6. Alan


Week 8 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1)

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 2)

3. Billy (Last Week: 4)

4. Levine (Last Week: 5)

5. Gutman (Last Week: 3)

6. Esco (Last Week: 8)

7. Nick (Last Week: 7)

8. Weissbard (Last Week: 10)

9. Marco (Last Week: 6)

10. Alan (Last Week: 9)

11. Barnard  (Last Week: 12)

12. Bennett (Last Week: 11)

13. Zacherman (Last Week: 13)

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)



Matchup of the Week: AGD vs. Gutman
With a win here, AGD should clinch the division and can set up their roster for Weeks 15 and 16. But a Gutman win puts everything into limbo, so is chaos on the table? The short answer is no, primarily due to Gut losing Dak and Amari to byes. With his studs out, Gutman is leaning heavily on the Saints, and while the matchup is nice, it doesn't come close to what AGD is facing. Houston gets the Raiders and Jacksonville gets the Jets, so I can see the Watson/Hopkins/Lenny/Leveon/Jags D quintet outscoring Gutman's entire roster. Feel really confident about breaking the #Kurse here.
Pick: AGD
MotW Record: 2-5


Gambling Corner - Week of 10/21

NFL Bets
Saints (-10) vs. Cardinals - Win
Jaguars (-6) vs. Jets - Win
Eagles (+3) at Bills - Win
Bucs (+3) at Titans - Loss
Last Week: 5-1
2019 Record: 24-17 (+3.72 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Colorado (+14) vs. USC - Win
Wisconsin (+14.5) at Ohio State - Loss
Miami (+6) at Pittsburgh - Win
Kansas State (+24) vs. Oklahoma - Win
Indiana (+3) at Nebraska - Win
Maryland (+17) at Minnesota - Loss
Oklahoma State (+10.5) at Iowa State - Win
Syracuse (+10) at Florida State - Loss
Texas Tech (-4) at Kansas - Loss
Last Week: 3-5
2019 Record: 32-31-1 (-3.09 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Southampton (+0.5) vs. Leicester City - Loss
Bournemouth (+0.5) at Watford - Win
Burnley (+0.5) vs. Chelsea - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Wolves - Push
Crystal Palace (+1) at Arsenal - Win
Last Week: 1-0-1
2019-20 Record: 17-12-10 (+1.46 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 10-6 (+0.34 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets
Atalanta (+2) at Manchester City - Loss
Real Madrid (-1) at Galatasaray - Push
Olympiacos (+1.5) vs. Bayern Munich - Win
RB Salzburg (Pick) vs. Napoli - Loss
Last Week: 3-3-1
2019-20 Record: 4-6-4 (-2.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets
Lyon (+230) at Benfica - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 1-1 (+0.30 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

MLB Bets
Nationals (+170) at Astros - Win
Nationals (+120) vs. Astros - Loss
Last Week: 1-1
2019 Record: 77-77 (-5.55 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)

NBA Bets
Clippers (+3.5) vs. Lakers - Win
Hornets (+3.5) vs. Bulls - Win
Suns (+1.5) vs. Kings - Win
Rockets (-1.5) vs. Bucks - Loss
Warriors (+1.5) vs. Clippers - Loss
Grizzlies (+2) vs. Bulls - Loss
Hawks (+2.5) vs. Magic - Win
2019 Record: 4-3 (+0.68 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

MLS Spread Bets

Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 14-12-5 (-0.50 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets
NYCFC (-105) vs. Toronto FC - Loss
Atlanta (-140) vs. Philadelphia - Win
LAFC (-230) vs. LA Galaxy - Win
Last Week: 1-3
2019 Record: 9-9 (+0.25 units)

Week 6 Recap

One week ago in this space, I mentioned how things had stabilized. Seven days later, that all seem to go to shit. Teams ranked 2, 4, and 7 all lost, and teams ranked 10, 11, and 12 all won (though somehow the MotW pick was correct). I'm not rethinking how these rankings are created, but maybe it is worth looking at things a little bit differently this week. Instead of Good News/Bad News, instead we're going to examine Biggest Strengths and Achilles Heels, and pointing out how many top 10 options each team has at each position (based on total points so byes/injuries skew some players, but it should mostly even out).

An in-depth review of the rosters around the league does not show that the Power Rankings were wrong, just that Week 6 was super weird. There are seven teams that I would call true contenders (ranked 1-7), with Alan and Barnard looming as wild cards based on records that would appear unsustainable (more on that below!). Injuries and trades can certainly change things, but I remain unrattled in how I'm viewing this season.

Week 7 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
Biggest Strength: Top-to-bottom the best starting lineup in the league.
Achilles Heel: An injury to Watson would cripple one roster spot and significantly hurt another.
Top 10s: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 2)
Biggest Strength: No team has a better starting RB/WR/TE situation.
Achilles Heel: Almost no team has a worse QB situation.
Top 10s: 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 2 D/ST

3. Gutman (Last Week: 3)
Biggest Strength: A RB/WR setup with both high-floor studs and high-ceiling depth.
Achilles Heel: After Dissly's injury, a tough decisions at TE each week, along with a potentially doomed reliance on the Dallas offense.
Top 10s: 1 QB, 1 RB, 2 WRs, 1 D/ST

4. Billy (Last Week: 5)
Biggest Strength: One of two RB duos in the league that can straight up win weeks on their own, along with an out-of-nowhere TE1 season from Hooper.
Achilles Heel: The least depth among the contenders, which is already being put to the test due to Kamara's injury.
Top 10s: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST

5. Levine (Last Week: 4)
Biggest Strength: One of two QBs that can straight up win weeks on his own, as well as all of the non-backfield targets for the Chargers.
Achilles Heel: Overall lack of clarity on who to start each week.
Top 10s: 1 QB, 1 RB, 1 WR

6. Marco (Last Week: 6)
Biggest Strength: Overall depth is top three in the league, and he just re-took the lead in number of children in FALAFEL (Congrats!).
Achilles Heel: Other than his own start/sit decisions, he has no week-winners on his team, which really comes in handy in the playoffs, so I'm told.
Top 10s: 2 QBs, 1 WR, 1 TE

7. Nick (Last Week: 7)
Biggest Strength: McCaffrey is the single most valuable asset in fantasy, and Nick's roster follows Weissbard's blueprint that led to a Chef's Coat last year.
Achilles Heel: QB is a weakness that Weissbard did not have, but even if Brees comes back in vintage form, the lack of overall consistency outside of CMC makes it hard to bet on this team winning three straight playoff games.
 Top 10s: 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 D/ST

8. Esco (Last Week: 10)
Biggest Strength: Arguably the best top-4 group of WRs in the league.
Achilles Heel: Little-to-no ceiling from anywhere else on the roster (there's a reason that the contenders above are not built around WRs).
Top 10s: 1 RB, 1 WR, 1 D/ST

9. Alan (Last Week: 8)
Biggest Strength:Weirdly, the biggest strength on this team is that guys like Rodgers, Adams, and Kelce have yet to perform to their own ceilings, but he's somehow 4-2 anyway.
Achilles Heel: The floor for your RBs is incredibly low on a week-to-week basis.
Top 10s: 1 RB, 1 TE

10. Weissbard (Last Week: 9)
Biggest Strength: Extreme depth of guys he can start in a pinch at every position.
Achilles Heel: The highest ceiling of that depth is at QB and TE, where he only needs to start one of them.
Top 10s: 2 QB, 1 WR, 1 TE, 1 D/ST

11. Bennett (Last Week: 11)
Biggest Strength: Against all odds it might be receiver? Tyreek, Rob Woods, Scary Terry, and whatever happens with Tate and Green isn't a bad situation at all.
Achilles Heel: With Conner banged up, it's the lack of reliability at RB.
Top 10s: 1 QB, 1 WR, 2 D/ST

12. Barnard  (Last Week: 12)
Biggest Strength: Even with their impossibly easy schedule getting harder after the bye, it's still the Pats D.
Achilles Heel: Unpredictable ceilings across the rest of the roster, and a fantasy schedule that still includes four of the top five teams in these rankings.
Top 10s: 1 D/ST

13. Zacherman (Last Week: 13)
Biggest Strength: Mahomes.
Achilles Heel: Everything else.
Top 10s: 1 QB, 2 TEs

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
Biggest Strength: Based on how this season has gone, your willingness to trade?
Achilles Heel: Very bad roster.
Top 10s: 1 RB


Matchup of the Week: Alan vs. Barnard
Ooooooh boy! The Disrespect Bowl is no longer an official Rivalry Week game, but there is arguably more on the line in this week's matchup. I'm going to go ahead and call this a Loser Leaves Town matchup, with Alan's superior roster negated by Barnard's 1-game lead in a 4-team (albeit more difficult) division. And the Week 7 schedule makes it even more tasty, with Alan getting Kelce and Sutton rolling on TNF, all the way through Barnard's cavalry of Pats on MNF. From a matchups perspective, things have aligned well for Barnard pretty much across the board which lifts his below average roster to some sort of respectability. Alan will need some points to be scored on Thursday (never a sure thing), as well as a previously unseen passing attach from Green Bay against a friendly Oakland defense. It may fittingly come down to Melvin vs. Ekeler, though the Titans matchup is pretty tough there. At the end of the day, I think Barnard's reckoning is still coming this season, but it won't start this week. I #Kursed you into your first loss, so consider yourself #Kursed again.
Pick: Barnard
MotW Record: 2-4


Gambling Corner - Week of 10/14

NBA Win Totals
Atlanta under 34
Brooklyn under 43.5
Chicago over 33.5
Dallas over 41.5
Indiana under 46.5
Clippers under 53.5
Lakers under 50.5
Memphis over 26.5
Milwaukee under 57.5
Minnesota over 35.5
Oklahoma City over 32.5
Phoenix over 29.5
Portland under 46.5
San Antonio under 45.5
Utah under 53.5

Based on the last five years, these bets should go 11-4. I also bet the Lakers to miss the playoffs at +425.

NFL Bets
Chiefs (-3) at Broncos - Win
Texans (+1) at Colts - Loss
Vikings (-1.5) at Lions - Win
Packers (-5.5) vs. Raiders - Win
Saints (+3) at Bears - Win
Patriots (-10) at Jets - Win
Last Week: 2-3
2019 Record: 21-16 (+2.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Stanford (-4) vs. UCLA - Loss
Syracuse (+3.5) vs. Pittsburgh - Loss
Louisville (+24) vs. Clemson - Loss
Purdue (+17.5) at Iowa - Win
Kansas State (+3.5) vs. TCU - Win
Mississippi State (+18.5) vs. LSU - Loss
Baylor (+4) at Oklahoma State - Win
Arizona State (+13) at Utah - Loss
Last Week: 2-6
2019 Record: 27-27-1 (-3.35 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Aston Villa (Pick) vs. Brighton - Win
Burnley (+1) at Leicester City - Push
Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 15-10-9 (+1.67 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets
Everton (-105) vs. West Ham - Win
Last Week: 1-2
2019-20 Record: 10-6 (+0.34 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets

Last Week: 3-3-1
2019-20 Record: 3-4-3 (-1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 1-0 (+1.30 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

MLB Bets
Yankees (+130) vs. Astros - Loss
Astros (+117) at Yankees - Win
Last Week: 0-1
2019 Record: 76-76 (-6.25 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)

MLS Spread Bets
DC United (+1) at Toronto FC - Win
Last Week: 2-0
2019 Record: 14-12-5 (-0.50 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets
Seattle (-130) vs. FC Dallas - Loss
Real Salt Lake (+115) vs. Portland - Win
Philadelphia (+105) vs. NY Red Bulls - Loss
Minnesota (-105) vs. LA Galaxy - Loss
Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 7-8 (+0.10 units)

Week 5 Recap

Outside of a few bananas performances from individual players last week, things are starting to stabilize after five weeks. As you'll see below, Power Ranking movement is at a season low, as only one team moved more than one spot. There's still a bit of a disconnect between team records and roster, where some (Barnard, Alan) have won more than their team quality would indicate, and others (Billy, Marco) are unlucky to be below .500. The playoff race will likely hinge on these teams either regressing to the mean, or starting to play up (or down) to their record.

Trade Grade 12
Marco receives Adam Thielen
Weissbard receives Chris Thompson and Tyler Boyd
Marco has flip-flopped from a team based on studs, to one based on depth, and now he appears to be consolidating again. He's technically buying high on Thielen based on last week, but buying low based on his season-long performance, which I guess means he paid a fair price. As for Weissbard, he's desperate to field a complete starting lineup this week and avoid essentially being eliminated at 1-5. Thompson is good for at least 5 points per week, which isn't exciting but is certainly better than the waiver options available. And given the WR situation in Cincy, I'm not ruling out Boyd outscoring Thielen for the rest of the year either. I was tempted to give each team a solid B here, but we all remember what happened the last time Marco traded for Thielen, so he gets the extra bump.
Marco Grade: B+
Weissbard Grade: B

Trade Grade 13
Ajay receives Chase Edmonds
Nick receives Malcolm Brown
An obvious handcuff-for-handcuff trade here, and one that doesn't warrant too much analysis. The difference in grades below is a matter of opportunity cost. If Gurley goes down for Nick, he drops from a playoff favorite back to the middle of the pack. If David Johnson gets hurt for Ajay, he drops from the worst team in the league to...the worstest team in the league? Nick now has his most important insurance policy for the cost of a waiver pickup, while Ajay loses the ability to either sell higher on Brown, or start him if Gurley gets hurt (which may have already happened).
Ajay Grade: C
Nick Grade: A-

Week 6 Power Rankings

1. AGD (Last Week: 1)
Good News: Even in a loss, you put up 109 which included a goose egg from Evans, none of which is likely to happen too often.
Bad News: That goose egg really hurts when you're trying to separate yourself from Gutman, the other contender in your division.

2. Kumpf (Last Week: 2)
Good News: Saquon Barkley isn't human, and will be flanking Dalvin Cook in my starting lineup as soon as Week 7.
Bad News: After praising Levine for Aaron Jones last week, he bitch slapped me this week.

3. Gutman (Last Week: 3)
Good News: You had no chance by the end of the early games, so you got to spend time with Mara on her birthday weekend.
Bad News: Miles Sanders' slow start leaves your flex spot as a weekly rough decision, albeit your only one.

4. Levine (Last Week: 4)

Good News: You got some sweet revenge for Rivalry Week last year, using Jared Cook to add insult to injury.
Bad News: If Lamar doesn't start running again, he's a bottom end QB1, as opposed to the no-doubt stud he looked like early in the year.

5. Billy (Last Week: 6)
Good News: Will Fuller looks like a weekly starter while Stills is out and Coutee isn't getting targets.
Bad News: Not starting him last week cost you a huge game in a very competitive division.

6. Marco (Last Week: 5)
Good News: You were due for a lucky break, and while your team did fine, winning by 0.6 just feels luckier than a blowout.
Bad News: Barnard has a better chance of getting a Chef's Coat than you do at picking the correct QB each week.

7. Nick (Last Week: 7)
Good News: Between CMC, Kupp, Engram, and Niners D, you have one of the more reliably stacked cores in the league.
Bad News: The rest of your team is extremely unreliable, which gives you the biggest ceiling/floor gap in the league.

8. Alan (Last Week: 8)
Good News: A win is a win, and you have improbably risen to the top of the most competitive division overall (4 of the top 7 scorers).
Bad News: Of the teams with a legit playoff chance, yours has the lowest ceiling unless Rodgers turns things around quickly.

9. Weissbard (Last Week: 10)
Good News: You were a solid DST performance away from the highest score in FALAFEL history.
Bad News: You're still in Coach Boone mode, and can't afford to lose a game for at least the next month.

10. Esco (Last Week: 9)
Good News: My previously undeserving faith in your team paid off for the first time.
Bad News: Somehow, your roster looks as weak as it has all season.

11. Bennett (Last Week: 12)
Good News: Getting through the Tyreek injury period, along with all the other drama you've had at WR, at 2-3 is a pretty solid outcome.
Bad News: Just as you get your WRs in order, things are looking a little shaky on the RB front with Coleman back for San Fran and the Pitt offense being a huge question mark.

12. Barnard  (Last Week: 13)
Good News: Any small chance of winning you had after TNF was erased as soon as CMC touched the ball, so your first loss wasn't a heartbreaker.
Bad News: Deciding between Freeman, Sony, Howard, and Melvin each week won't be easy, and I might recommend trading Sony and Cooks for someone like Michael Thomas.

13. Zacherman (Last Week: 11)
Good News: If you knew Tevin was going to play, you obviously would have started him over Yeldon, and 59 feels soooo much better than 49.
Bad News: 59 still doesn't feel great.

14. Ajay (Last Week: 14)
Good News: You were favored heading into MNF, which is kind of like a win?
Bad News: Everything that happened on MNF.



Matchup of the Week: Alan vs. Gutman
The #Kurse is back in full force this year, and taking down the #BarnieBros just shows the true influence behind this mythical power. These two teams were not division favorites heading out of the draft, but they have both looked great to start the year. However, thanks to the extreme imbalance of the Division Draft, neither one is a shoo-in for the playoffs, and both might be the third best team in their own divisions. I'm more bullish on Gutman in general, but especially this week thanks to great matchups for the Cowboys, Seahawks, and Julio, and Alan's plethora of byes. Alan's path to victory hinges on Green Bay. He gets last licks with Rodgers, and Davante Adams will likely be a game time decision (wouldn't it be nice if you had Geronimo as a safety valve instead of inexplicably still holding onto and starting Witten?). If Rodgers throws two of his four TDs to Adams, Alan has a shot, but I think there's a better shot that Adams misses the game entirely. Sorry Gut.
Pick: Gutman
MotW Record: 1-4


Gambling Corner - Week of 10/7

NFL Bets
Chiefs (-4.5) vs. Texans - Loss
Saints (+1) at Jaguars - Win
Eagles (+3) at Vikings - Loss
Titans (+2) at Broncos - Loss
Steelers (+7) at Chargers - Win
Last Week: 3-2
2019 Record: 16-15 (-1.10 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Syracuse (-4.5) at NC State - Loss
Memphis (-5.5) at Temple - Loss
Texas A&M (+17) vs. Alabama - Loss
Houston (+7.5) vs. Cincinnati - Loss
Missouri (-12) vs. Mississippi - Loss
Penn State (-3) at Iowa - Win
Nebraska (+7.5) at Minnesota - Loss
Washington (-6) at Arizona - Win
Last Week: 1-3
2019 Record: 24-22-1 (-1.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

EPL Spread Bets

Last Week: 3-0
2019-20 Record: 14-10-8 (+0.98 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 1-2
2019-20 Record: 9-6 (-0.61 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets

Last Week: 3-3-1
2019-20 Record: 3-4-3 (-1.24 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 1-0
2019-20 Record: 1-0 (+1.30 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)

MLB Bets

Last Week: 0-1
2019 Record: 75-75 (-5.42 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 41.18% (-6.77 units)

MLS Spread Bets

Last Week: 2-0
2019 Record: 13-12-5 (-1.37 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 1-0
2019 Record: 5-6 (+1.95 units)