What a whirlwind weekend. Considering we didn't do all that many official activities, I feel like everyone is still collectively as wiped out as Barnard's checking account. I will get to the usual draft recap, but first I have some thoughts on the weekend.
- For all the shit we gave Tampa before and during Draft Weekend it was actually...fine? I don't think we really took advantage of the city other than the boat and Friday late night activities.
- Having only one "planned" Friday activity seemed to be better than combining day drinking with a game at night.
- The house was pretty sweet despite it's extremely odd decor, and the pool was far less gross than I imagined.
- Those three thoughts gave me a fresh realization: It kind of doesn't matter where we do the draft as long as a majority of the following boxes are checked:
- Location is relatively easy to get to for the entire league (sorry Nick and Mejia but this likely means no West Coast).
- If there is a chance of the weather going above 80 degrees we need access to a pool or other water feature, and we cannot be expected to walk more than a quarter mile.
- The house is the single most important variable given our homebound nature and quickly advancing ages (but not maturity levels). If the house cannot comfortably sleep 16, it's not worth it.
- Casinos and other amenities are nice but not required.
Draft Location Madness is one of my favorite times of the year, but I'm starting to think we should mandate that an Airbnb listing is included with every location. Some locations may have multiple options, but I'd rather be realistic about what we're going to do every year than idealize some random city.
Enough about that, let's move on to the Draft Grades. As expected, there is next to nothing that takes place in Tampa in movies or TV, however there is one movie that has one scene in Tampa and that sounds about right. Thanks to what was likely one day of filming at the Tampa Zoo, I give you Goodfellas.
Zacherman
Henry Hill: As far back as I can remember I always wanted to be a gangster.
While there are four teams that have never won the league, everyone seems to be pulling for Z to be the next first-time winner. Marco has only been in the league for half the time, Nick also took a few years off, and Barnard obviously isn't the favorite, so Z it is. Unfortunately, I don't think this is the year. Z was involved in a ton of auctions, but the ones he actually won were underwhelming. Mahomes to Kelce is always fun, but beyond that there's not a lot to get excited about, including minimal depth.
Best Pick: Ladd McConkey for $7. I almost had Mahomes here, but QB prices were so depressed across the board that paying tied for the most for a QB can't be a value. Instead I'll go with Justin Herbert's de facto top target. With half-PPR, Ladd has an extremely high floor, and if he can be a factor in the redzone, this could easily be a WR2 for less than $10.
Worst Pick: Travis Kelce for $27. We didn't know it at the time, but TE prices were also insanely depressed, making this a massive outlier. Kelce could easily finish as TE1, but I can't see a reality where he's worth $6 more than any other TE, and $9 more than anyone but Trey McBride.
Grade: C
Alan
Henry Hill: You're a pistol, you're really funny. You're really funny.
Tommy DeVito: What do you mean I'm funny?
Henry Hill: It's funny, you know. It's a good story, it's funny, you're a funny guy.
[laughs]
Tommy DeVito: What do you mean, you mean the way I talk? What?
Henry Hill: It's just, you know. You're just funny, it's... funny, you know the way you tell the story and everything.
Tommy DeVito: [it becomes quiet] Funny how? What's funny about it?
Anthony Stabile: Tommy no, you got it all wrong.
Tommy DeVito: Oh, oh, Anthony. He's a big boy, he knows what he said. What did ya say? Funny how?
Henry Hill: Jus...
Tommy DeVito: What?
Henry Hill: Just... ya know... you're funny.
Tommy DeVito: You mean, let me understand this cause, ya know maybe it's me, I'm a little fucked up maybe, but I'm funny how, I mean funny like I'm a clown, I amuse you? I make you laugh, I'm here to fuckin' amuse you? What do you mean funny, funny how? How am I funny?
Henry Hill: Just... you know, how you tell the story, what?
Tommy DeVito: No, no, I don't know, you said it. How do I know? You said I'm funny. How the fuck am I funny, what the fuck is so funny about me? Tell me, tell me what's funny!
Henry Hill: [long pause] Get the fuck out of here, Tommy!
Tommy DeVito: [everyone laughs] Ya motherfucker! I almost had him, I almost had him. Ya stuttering prick ya. Frankie, was he shaking? I wonder about you sometimes, Henry. You may fold under questioning.
The most unreasonably defensive moment in the movie goes to the most unreasonably defensive member of the league. Much like Pesci's character can hold a grudge, our 3-time champ never forgets a slight or the number of Range Rovers that Esco owns. Alan's team is fine overall, though I'm not a fan of building around 2 WRs given how deep the position is this year. Alan's team name is also the funniest both due to the typo and how random it would be even if it was spelled correctly.
Best Pick: CeeDee Lamb for $58. It was always clear he would sign, and now he's not missing any games either. Lamb is well poised to get close to 200 targets given the lack of options in that offense. Last year the top receiver went for $67, so this is a value by our league's standards as well.
Worst Pick: Garrett Wilson for $47. Nothing against Garrett, but after getting Lamb, Alan's focus should have been on RB. "Settling" for Aaron Jones and James Cook isn't terrible, but the depth behind his starters is non-existent across the board. If Lamb stays good, Rodgers isn't washed, and everyone stays healthy, this is a playoff team. That's just a lot of ifs for me.
Grade: B-
Levine
Henry Hill: Paulie may have moved slow, but it was only because Paulie didn't have to move for anybody.
Levine may not be the Don of FALAFEL, but he certainly acts like it. Rarely speaks, doesn't show up to a wildly convenient location for him, and when he is involved in the it often results in absolute carnage. I enjoyed seeing how pissed off several league members were that Levine didn't show up to Tampa at all, as this league has severely lacked some Levine hate in recent years. Will Steve use that hate for results, or will he continue to wallow silently at the bottom of the standings? Based on his draft it could go either way.
Best Pick: Brandon Aiyuk for $19. The upside of Levine's strategy is that he often gets a bunch of startable WRs for way less than they should go for. Aiyuk was his best value, despite the holdout/trade concerns, but the same can be applied to Waddle and Ridley. Too bad he can only start 3 WRs.
Worst Pick: D'Andre Swift for $27. The downside of Levine's strategy is that he often gets into senseless bidding wars for subpar RBs. Take Swift away from Philly's OL and overall offense, and I think he's barely startable, let alone worth more than Aaron Jones, Mostert, Warren, etc. The same applies to Rachaad White and Chase Brown (though I did like the Singletary value). Paying a lot for trash is never fun, take it from a guy who dropped $60+ on Pierce and Akers last year.
Grade: B
Lowe, Bruno, Frank, and Bequillard
Henry Hill: You know, we always called each other good fellas. Like you said to, uh, somebody, "You're gonna like this guy. He's all right. He's a good fella. He's one of us." You understand? We were good fellas. Wiseguys.
Cheers as always to the non-league members who show up to draft weekend despite not participating in the draft. Lowe is always there, but Bruno joined his first non -ville draft, Frank made it two in a row, and Becks somehow survived the weekend. Well done all around.
BMO
Tommy DeVito: No more shines, Billy.
Billy Batts: What?
Tommy DeVito: I said, no more shines. Maybe you didn't hear about it, you've been away a long time. They didn't go up there and tell you. I don't shine shoes anymore.
Billy Batts: Relax, will ya? Ya flip right out, what's got into you? I'm breaking your balls a little bit, that's all. I'm only kidding with ya...
Tommy DeVito: Sometimes you don't sound like you're kidding, you know, there's a lotta people around...
Billy Batts: I'm only kidding with you, we're having a party, I just came home and I haven't seen you in a long time and I'm breaking your balls, and you're getting fucking fresh. I'm sorry, I didn't mean to offend you.
Tommy DeVito: I'm sorry too. It's okay. No problem.
Billy Batts: Okay, salud. [takes a drink] Now go home and get your fuckin' shinebox.
Despite winning his first Stevens Bowl, a year after losing a tight Stevens Bowl to Alan, Bennett will never escape his shinebox past. Tampa was a fine draft location, but that was mainly thanks to the house and Esco, along with the escapades of Barnard, Bequillard, Gutman, etc. So enjoy your moment in the sun while it lasts Bennett. It won't be too long before you have to go home and get your fuckin shinebox.
Best Pick: Lamar Jackson for $19. QBs were insanely cheap this year, but Lamar for $5 less than Mahomes and Josh is still a steal. I think Henry will only help Lamar's rushing stats and overall health, so you could have gotten QB1 on the season for under $20.
Worst Pick: Puka Nacua for $44. WR prices were all over the place, and I liked the Tyreek value, but you paid WR8 money for a guy who may have had a career season as a rookie and has a presumably healthy Cooper Kupp back to steal targets. I just think this money could have been used better at RB2.
Grade: B-
Marco
Henry Hill: Anything I wanted was a phone call away. Free cars. The keys to a dozen hideout flats all over the city. I bet twenty, thirty grand over a weekend and then I'd either blow the winnings in a week or go to the sharks to pay back the bookies. Didn't matter. It didn't mean anything. When I was broke, I'd go out and rob some more. We ran everything. We paid off cops. We paid off lawyers. We paid off judges. Everybody had their hands out. Everything was for the taking. And now it's all over.
This quote had two obvious choices, but more on Barnard later. Marco's rollercoaster from Friday afternoon through Saturday night was fun to witness. The fact he ended up making a considerable amount of money is not only shocking, but hopefully leads to similar decisions in future draft weekends. Another great team name for Marco and another team that looks playoff bound. Hard to grade a Marco team because the entire roster will likely turn over before Week 8. In fact he waited just 17 minutes to make a trade this year.
Best Pick: Jayden Daniels for $6. Marco's team is all pretty fair value-wise, but I'm putting Jayden here because everyone knew Marco would bid him up, yet no one made him pay $15 or more.
Worst Pick: Xavier Worthy for $12. I love X, and this price wasn't bad at all, but when you have both Chubb and Brooks that will need 6+ weeks to return, you can't afford a luxury WR3. With Lockett and Thielen both around, I see a trade for an RB coming very quickly.
Grade: B+
Nick
Henry Hill: Jimmy was the kind of guy that rooted for bad guys in the movies.
No idea if this is true about Nick, but it fits better for him than anyone else in the league. I think I speak for the entire league when I say congrats, good luck, and godspeed for your life over the next few months. That's mainly about your family life, but can also apply to your team, where I think you have a solid base, but minimal upside. This is a borderline playoff team to me.
Best Pick: Brock Purdy for $3. Despite the ridiculously cheap QB market, Brock for $3 is a steal. I don't really like him, I'm not convinced the Niners really like him, but you can't argue with his situation. For the same price as Goff, Lawrence, and Tua, and less than Caleb, this was a steal.
Worst Pick: Kenneth Walker III for $37. You needed an RB2 and he was the best on the board. I think it's an overpay but I get the logic. What I don't get is the subsequent >$1 spend on receivers when Charbonnet was the single most important player for you to draft given Kenny's injury history. He only went for $6, and that's before you spent $12 on a cadre of WR4-5s. I'm sure at least one of those hits, but when KW3 goes down, you'll be in pain.
Grade: C
AGD
Henry Hill: And then there was Jimmy Two Times, who got that nickname because he said everything twice, like:
Jimmy Two Times: I'm gonna go get the papers, get the papers.
I'm still not sure if the rumors of Belfer and Reap living next door to each other and sharing a wall are true or not, but I'm choosing to believe it. What I can't believe is that neither of them made Draft Weekend two years in a row. We don't have an official rule, but missing three drafts in a row is going to cost some FAAB. I really liked some of their picks this year, and didn't care for a couple others, as you will see.
Best Pick: Diontae Johnson for $9. I feel like I've had this guy three years in a row, and while his MNF performance did clinch the Stevens Bowl for me in 2021, he's insanely frustrating to own. No one leaves games with minor injuries more, and he rarely catches anything other than screens or bombs. That said, he's the clear #1 on a Carolina team that will probably be passing a ton. Less than $10? I'm now jealous I didn't get him again.
Worst Pick: Malik Nabers for $27. I think Nabers is going to be a stud, but this year's Giants team should be tank central and will likely bench Dimes mid-season so they don't trigger his guarantee. I'm sure you will get a couple of 3/150/2 games out of him, but I would have preferred cheaper options like Evans, Deebo, Aiyuk, or DJM as my WR2.
Grade: B+
Gutman
Henry Hill: One day some of the kids from the neighborhood carried my mother's groceries all the way home. You know why? It was outta respect.
I give my most respect to Gutman, despite taking at least 5 shots and unknown milligrams, his team is up there with the best in the league. He somehow showed restraint during the draft, assembling upside talent with a high floor and actual depth. I honestly don't know how he did it, especially given the events of the Uber ride home.
Best Pick: Mike Evans for $22. This is insane value and probably the second best pick of the entire draft. Evans has been the model of consistency, posting borderline WR1 numbers his entire career with a variety of different QBs. Yes, he's older and his TDs will likely regress, but getting him for $22 as the WR21 is absolute theft.
Worst Pick: Brian Robinson Jr. for $18. I think this is when Gut was the drunkest and just trying to piss off Marco. The Mandos offense has a lot of mouths to feed on the ground with Jayden and Ekeler in tow, so I don't like spending nearly $20 for BRob, who was Gut's RB2 at the time. He immediately made up for that by getting Mostert at the same price, and those two for $36 is more then fair.
Grade: A-
Weissbard
Henry Hill: I felt he used too many onions, but it was still a very good sauce.
Paul Cicero: Vinnie, don't put too many onions in the sauce.
Vinnie: I didn't put too much onions, uh, Paul. Three small onions. That's all I did.
Johnny Dio: Three onions? How many cans of tomatoes you put in there?
Vinnie: I put two cans, two big cans.
Johnny Dio: You don't need three onions.
Our other shot-taker wasn't nearly as fortunate. Gutman was more clearly affected by doing the shots this year based on his behavior and water bottle-related vomiting, but Weissbard's team was clearly drafted by a drunk person. Whether it's his incoherent team name, multiple backup Giant RBs, or $21 on Trey McBride, this team is just not very good. You don't need three onions and you don't need to spend more on McBride than Ajay did on LaPorta.
Best Pick: Terry McLaurin for $16. For some reason, the bad judgment did not apply to Weiss's WR picks, as Terry and Tank were by far his best values. Terry is a poor man's Mike Evans, and getting him for $16 is great value. If either of these guys suck or get hurt, the cupboard is bare behind them.
Worst Pick: Trey McBride for $21. I feel like I've hit on this one enough, but I could forgive it if Trey was the first TE off the board. The fact that three TEs, including LaPorta, were taken before him means Dan lit money on fire. I do like Trey but not as the TE2.
Grade: C-
Barnard
Henry Hill: It was revenge for Billy Batts, and a lot of other things. And there was nothing that we could do about it. Batts was a made man, and Tommy wasn't. And we had to sit still and take it. It was among the Italians. It was real greaseball shit. They even shot Tommy in the face so his mother couldn't give him an open coffin at the funeral.
The most iconic death in the movie goes a team that is dead before the season even starts. Despite a solid team name, several massages, and an ever-changing bankroll, Barnard's team is just as dogshit as usual. It's not all bad. He wanted Amon-Ra and got him, along with the Goff connection, and I like the late values for Hock and Gabe. But the rest, yeesh. Knowing Barnard, this team will go 7-7 with a bottom three points scored and he will wonder why he never wins the tiebreakers.
Best Pick: T. J. Hockenson for $2. He's going to clog an IR slot for half the season, but when he's back, Barnard's TE Attack will actually look pretty good. Worst case, he's a good trade candidate to a contender in early November.
Worst Pick: Michael Pittman Jr. for $30. Barnard typically likes receivers that are fast and/or white. Pittman is a light-skinned but very slow and in a very run heavy offense. No one knows what to expect from Richardson this year, and the Colts have a lot of mouths to feed. I guess Barnard has Diggs as insurance, but he's one of the only receivers I wanted less than Pittman. Cue the Week 3 text "why doesn't anyone ever throw to my receivers?" I didn't even mentioned Zeke or Jonathan Ward.
Grade: C-
Ajay
Henry Hill: Jimmy had never asked me to do a hit before, and now he's asking me to go down to Florida with Anthony to make a hit.
[Jimmy gives him a pack of matches with a number]
Henry Hill: That's when I knew I would never have come back from Florida alive.
Ajay made the seemingly smart decision not to come back from Florida, both from a "getting married in a month" perspective and a "going to a wedding with my fiancée" perspective, but he really did miss out. I have no interest in going back to Tampa ever but it was a fun weekend and not having Ajay there to criticize people's picks left me pretty lonely. He ended up with the steal of the draft in LaPorta, but beyond that I'm not a big fan of his team. Depth is there, but I don't like the individual players much beyond Burrow and LaPorta.
Best Pick: Sam LaPorta for $18. TE1 for under $20? Enough said.
Worst Pick: Joe Mixon for $31. I don't think anyone has ever been happy with owning Mixon, and he was on my title team. $31 for your top RB isn't bad, but I would have preferred to wait for guys like KW3, James Cook, and even Singletary who were still on the board. Ajay got stuck dropping more than $5 for three different bench guys, which means he could have spent differently earlier in the draft.
Grade: B-
Billy
Henry Hill: And that's the hardest part. Today everything is different; there's no action... have to wait around like everyone else. Can't even get decent food - right after I got here, I ordered some spaghetti with marinara sauce, and I got egg noodles and ketchup. I'm an average nobody... get to live the rest of my life like a schnook.
Billy has tried to pivot away from his Big Two RB strategy in recent years, with mixed results. The worst part is that you can see some of the fire in his eyes disappear when he has more than $20 left in his budget an hour into the auction. It's not like CMC and JJ are small potatoes, but leaving $50 for Zamir White and DJ Moore? That can't have been how he drew it up. Billy is now drafting like a schnook.
Best Pick: Tua Tagovailoa for $3. This part is always tough to grade for Billy. I liked the CMC value, but that can't be his best pick. QBs were cheap overall, but Tua is set up for success in that offense as long as he stays healthy. Rodgers is a pretty damn good backup plan too.
Worst Pick: Zamir White for $20. The Raiders are going to be quite bad, and bad teams don't score a lot and don't really have a reason to run the ball with guys who aren't going to be part of their next good team. White probably gets 10 touches a game, but I bet Billy will wish he went big for Breece instead of playing it safe.
Grade: B
Esco
Henry Hill: Now the guy's got Paulie as a partner. Any problems, he goes to Paulie. Trouble with the bill? He can go to Paulie. Trouble with the cops, deliveries, Tommy, he can call Paulie. But now the guy's gotta come up with Paulie's money every week, no matter what. Business bad? Fuck you, pay me. Oh, you had a fire? Fuck you, pay me. Place got hit by lightning, huh? Fuck you, pay me.
I just chose this for Esco because of his Venmo requests, but I do have to say that this was a well planned weekend. From the house, to the style of events, to the number of events, I think we found out sweet spot, so well done Adam. As for your team, I would be fucking terrified about your RB situation if I was you. Not one of your RBs is likely going to start for their own team, many of them have injury concerns, and honestly Rico Dowdle is likely going to start for you some weeks (I've been there, it's not fun). I like the rest of your team, but I think you will be active on the waiver wire and trade market this season.
Best Pick: C.J. Stroud for $16. I don't care how bad the QB market ended up being, getting the hottest QB on the planet for this price was well done. He has unlimited weapons, a relatively easy schedule, and only Joe Mixon as a threat to steal TDs. Maybe not a super cheap value but a pick you won't regret.
Worst Pick: DeVon Achane for $37. If he plays the whole season this will be a good pick. If he plays half the season it could still be a good pick. But for someone who had Mostert last year, I'm shocked you hitched your wagon to Achane.
Grade: B+
Kumpf
Karen: What do you do?
Henry Hill: I'm in construction.
Karen: [She feels the softness of his hands] They don't feel like you're in construction.
Henry Hill: Ah, I'm a union delegate.
Didn't have a great quote for myself, so I'll lean into the unemployed situation and my status as a professional gambler. Not great, but whatever. I feel similarly about my team. My whole strategy was going super cheap at QB and then I somehow won Josh Allen and everything got turned upside down. I have depth, don't love any of my players, and Josh's lack of weapons is concerning, but there's enough here to make the playoffs.
Best Pick: Amari Cooper for $14. Pretty rare to get a WR1 for under $15. All of my WRs were bargains, but this one is primed to look pretty good after the season.
Worst Pick: Josh Allen for $24. The price isn't bad, but being the first guy to bid on a position can set the market somewhere it shouldn't go. This set the tone for a lot of the rest of the draft.
Grade: B+
Grade Recap:
Gutman: A-
AGD: B+
Esco: B+
Marco: B+
Kumpf: B+
Levine: B
Billy: B
Alan: B-
Bennett: B-
Ajay: B-
Nick: C
Zacherman: C
Barnard: C-
Weissbard: C-
