Playoff Picture 3 Weeks Out

(Editor's Note: This guest blog was submitted by Esco)

With the trade deadline fast approaching, let's take a look at who is still in the playoff picture 3 weeks out.

Playoff Locks

1. Ajay (9-2), 73 Pts behind most scored, 22 Pts ahead of NiJo Rule

A stunning 9 game win streak puts Ajay in control of his own destiny for regular season championship. The final three games are not easy though with games again Alan and Nick fighting for their playoff lives and a huge Week 13 matchup with Z. Has only topped 100 points 5 times so has had a lot of luck with matchups but a win is a win is a win and the Ajay Ajays keep rolling so far.

2. Zacherman (8-3) 44 Pts behind most scored, 51 pts ahead of NiJo Rule

After making some trades for the future, Z has lost 3 out of the last four and finds himself in danger of losing the playoff bye if he doesn't rally the troops. Fortunately, outside of the Week 13 matchup with Ajay, he's got some bottom feeders in Barnard and AGD. Regardless of the outcome of the Ajay/Z matchup, if he can go 2-1 in the final 3 games he likely holds onto the bye

3. Marco (7-4) 1st in Points Scored, 96 Pts ahead of NiJo Rule

Probably the most dominant team over the back half of the season. Has scored below 100 only twice, Week 1 and a 84.94 to 84.04 brutal loss to Ajay. Marco faces 3 potential playoffs teams (BMO, Esco, Gutman) but will certainly be favored in every matchup. Winning out likely gets him the bye due to the head to head matchup of the top 2 seeds in Week 13 and might even get him a regular season championship due to his points scored. Easily the most dangerous team to face the rest of the way

Likely In

4. Lutz (7-4) 81 Pts Behind Most Scored, 14 Pts ahead of NiJo Rule

It used to be that having a baby mid-season was a guaranteed lock for the Stevens Bowl. Now with babies being born left and right, that barely guarantees a playoff berth. Next time try a chronic disease if you really want to improve your playoff chances Billy.

However, the schedule is very friendly to the new Lutz family, with Levine, Nick and BMO outstanding. 2 wins are likely and potentially winning out is on the table. I don't think it gets Billy to a playoff bye but he should be comfortable that even if he forgets to set his lineup once or twice in the post-baby chaos, he should be fine for the playoffs.

5. BMO (6-5) 24 pts behind most scored, 72 Pts ahead of NiJo Rule

While the wins haven't always come for BMO, the scoring was hot and heavy early in the season to give them a cushion regardless of outcome for the last few weeks. Matchups with Marco and Billy are not ideal to end the season but if they can pull off a 2-1 record they likely move up in the seeds. Unfortunately 1-2 is more likely so they probably stay in the bottom half of the playoff bracket pending a true collapse.

On the Cusp

Esco (6-5) 96 pts behind most scored, NiJo Rule Spot

My team has bounced around the 6th seed the entire season and I likely have one more move to make to truly become a playoff contender. Will trading Ridley back to his rightful home on the Barndogs give me the karma I need to make the playoffs? Two critical matchups with Kumpf and Marco will likely decide my fate even before rivalry week against Weissbard. The Cowboys play the Commanders on Thanksgiving so that could put me in a huge hole going into the weekend, but if I maintain the points lead so it will be an interesting few weeks.

Kumpf (5-6) 58 Pts behind NiJo Rule

There has been no real consistency with Kumpf's team which isn't surprising when your team is essentially a single NFL team. He has a manageable schedule (Esco, Gutman, Barnard) but points will be more crucial than wins and the Cowboys schedule (Commanders, Seahawks, Eagles) isn't quite as friendly as it could be. As I mentioned just above, this week likely puts either me or Kumpf in the driver's seat for the 6 seed so let's check back in after Thanksgiving.

Hanging by a Thread: 3 teams are within 90 pts of Nijo Rule and also only 1 game out of playoff contention. A few high scoring weeks or winning out might get any of them in, but they all will need help to reach the playoffs

Alan (5-6) 76 Pts behind NiJo Rule

The championship hangover strikes again... Alan put up a dominant week to knock off Z but now faces the new #1 seed Ajay in a must win game. The final games (Nijo, Levine) are winnable but he needs to not only win but really run up the score to ensure himself a chance at a 4th Stevens Bowl win.

Nick (5-6) 85 pts behind NiJo Rule

As usual, Nick's team has faced unusually bad luck (3 loses by under 3 points) and has generally looked competitive all year. Unfortunately, the scheduling gods (aka the League Lobster AI chatbot) have dealt him a difficult hand to close out the year. Billy, Alan, Ajay is a very difficult stretch to win out so he needs to significantly outscore Esco, Kumpf and Alan over a 3 week timeframe which is no easy feat.

Gutman (5-6) 86 pts behind NiJo Rule

A disgusting loss to the Barndogs likely ends Gutman's shot at the playoffs unless he gets incredibly lucky these next few weeks. The schedule (AGD, Kumpf, Marco) has one head to head against a fellow playoff hopeful which might help if he wins out but I don't see a lot of scenarios where we are looking at a playoff contending team unless Gutman makes a few big trades to end the year.

Barndogs 

Barnard (5-6) 174 pts behind NiJo Rule

Barnard always seems to operate in his own universe and this year is no different. While only one game out of playoff contention, he is so far out of the points scored race that he basically needs to win out and hope the 5 teams ahead of him do not surpass 7 wins. Lol. I'm sure there is some parlay angle here that would pay out 30,000 to 1 if you could combine Ridley TD's with Barnard playoff success. He's got Zacherman, AGD, Kumpf the rest of the way so he could play a fun spoiler role if he actually could predict his highest scoring lineup but it's more likely we see another week where Barnard's bench outscores his starters than a playoff run for the Barndogs

Likely Out

I'm sure there is some scenario where AGD or Weissbard win out or Levine averages 175 points a week that would get them in but in nearly all scenarios I think these teams are sadly out of contention for additional Steven's Bowl victories. Better luck in 2024 boys