Stevens Bowl Preview

Before we get to the matchup of the week, we need to revisit the Matchup of the Decade. In the 210 team games played so far this year, it featured the 1st and 4th most points. In the 690 games in the last three years since we moved to half point PPR, it featured the 1st and 6th most points (side note: I have three of those top 6 point totals...and 1 playoff win). Neither of us played our ideal lineup, though injuries to Dalvin and Godwin heavily influenced that. And Gutman starting Davante Parker over Amari Cooper may have been the best lineup decision in FALAFEL history.

That said, let's take a look at how Karma had its say. In Week 13, I benched Dalvin and Lockett, costing myself the matchup with Barnard and $50. In that game, Dalvin immediately got hurt and Lockett was shut out. The following week, while avoiding a potential loss to Esco, I beat Alan but got a goose egg from Alshon, who got injured for the rest of the year, and Jameis broke a bone in his throwing hand. Had Alshon been healthy, I likely would have started him over Lockett, who responded with a big game, but in turn I lost both Godwin and Dalvin mid-game, which likely cost me the matchup. Karma is indeed real, and it is vicious.

Moving on...

Belfer! Gutman! Reap? Mara! It's the Stevens Bowl!

Quarterbacks:
Two top five QBs, two pretty easy matchups, both with their #1 receiver on the same roster. This position should lead the fireworks of the matchup. If I'm AGD, I'm a little bit scared that the Texans (and Perriman) lead off the week on Saturday afternoon. It's an unnatural time for an NFL game, despite the Texans always playing their playoff games in that time slot. Maybe familiarity will work to Watson's benefit, but this one will be close. I'm leaning towards AGD simply because the weather should be nicer.
Slight Edge: AGD

Runningbacks:
Carson and Fournette are the studs, but the Chubb/Hunt dynamic is super interesting here. Baltimore is a solid defense, and I'm not sure how Hot Seat Freddie will deploy his RBs. You have to assume the Browns will be passing to catch up, which sounds like a Hunt game, but you can never rule out Chubb breaking a long one. I'll take the ceiling of Carson and Chubb here.
Edge: Gutman

Wide Receivers:
Hopkins is the best WR this side of Mike Thomas, but Watson has been spreading the ball out a lot more with Fuller and Stills healthy, so I actually think Julio's target share makes him the top WR in this matchup. A.J. Brown and Davante Parker are shockingly top 15 options and pretty much the only reason these teams are in the Stevens Bowl. I still think Gutman should be starting Amari here, but I'll cover that in the Flex section. Overall this position is half high-floor studs and half insane variance. Too close to call.
Edge: Even

Tight End:
AGD currently has Higbee over Andrews, which is curious to me, but either way they have a definite edge over Hollister.
Big Edge: AGD

Flex:
This is where the chef's coat or hats will be decided. AGD had enough auction dollars left to guarantee themselves Perriman, which I assume is the reason why Gutman didn't bid at all (either that or he has no idea what he's doing and put up 160+ on me in the semi-finals based entirely on luck, which I cannot accept). Perriman is absolutely not a safe start, and him and Brown could combine to score anywhere from 5-60 points, but I like starting him over LeVeon or Washington after seeing what Gutman's team can do. For Gutman, this is as hard as it gets. Miles Sanders, coming off a Stevens Bowl berth-winning performance, going up against the Cowboys, or Amari Cooper, coming off an up and down month, and going against Gutman's Eagles. We all know what Bennett would do, but does Gut have the balls to start Amari here? I think it's a relative toss up, but guessing wrong will be devastating. All that said, Gut's options are safer than AGD's.
Slight Edge: Gutman

D/ST:
AGD's Ravens are the clear winner here, and I'm not really sure what Gutman is gonna do. I don't love going up against Tannehill (what a wild sentence), or trust the ATL defense. Looking at the wire, I might actually go with the Skins here, but it likely won't matter.
Edge: AGD

Overall:
The playoffs have really been a lot of fun this year. The largest margin of victory is shockingly me vs. Gutman (albeit by 0.1 points), which just shows how competitive things have been. I expect nothing different from the Stevens Bowl, which means I really have to throw all that hard-hitting analysis above out the window and ask myself, what is easier to picture? I would absolutely love to see Gutman's face as Weissbard gets on a stepstool and puts a chef's coat on him, but AGD with chef hats on their dicks is in play as well. To me, the easiest thing to picture is Miles Sanders fumbling away the Eagles' playoff hopes as Amari torches a terrible Philly secondary. Sorry Gut.
Pick: AGD

MotW Record: 10-8


Gambling Corner - Week of 12/16

NFL Bets
Bucs (+3) vs. Texans - Push
Panthers (+7) at Colts - Loss
Bengals (+1) at Dolphins - Loss
Giants (+3) at Redskins - Win
Last Week: 3-1
2019 Record: 40-34-3 (+0.47 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 54.64% (+20.02 units)

NCAAF Bets
Utah State (-6.5) vs. Kent State - Loss
San Diego State (-3) vs. Central Michigan - Win
Last Week: 0-0
2019 Record: 54-43-1 (+3.99 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 50.33% (-24.90 units)

NBA Bets
Hornets (+5.5) vs. Kings - Win
Last Week: 0-1
2019 Record: 13-11-1 (-0.29 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 51.85% (-22.82 units)

NCAAB Bets
Oklahoma (+3.5) at Creighton - Loss
Last Week: 2-2
2019-20 Record: 12-11 (-0.08 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.59% (-20.58 units)

EPL Spread Bets
Aston Villa (Pick) vs. Southampton - Loss
Newcastle (Pick) vs. Crystal Palace - Win
Bournemouth (Pick) vs. Burnley - Loss
Sheffield (+0.5) at Brighton - Win
Leicester City (+1.5) at Manchester City - Loss
Tottenham (Pick) vs. Chelsea - Loss
Last Week: 1-2
2019-20 Record: 33-27-11 (-0.21 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 17-9 (+3.18 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

Champions League Spread Bets

Last Week: 0-1-1
2019-20 Record: 10-12-6 (-3.19 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 58.89% (+3.45 units)

Champions League Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 6-3 (+4.60 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 42.11% (-5.10 units)