Rivalry Week 2018

The results are in, and they are extremely interesting. I'll dive into some detailed analysis in a minute, but first here are the Rivalry Week 2018 matchups, in descending order based on the combined ratings:

1 (tie). Alan vs. Barnard - 14.0 points - The Disrespect Bowl
1 (tie). Belfer vs. Reap - 14.0 points - The Scorned Lovers Bowl
3. Gutman vs. Marco - 13.0 points - The Dad Bowl
4. Esco vs. Weissbard - 12.5 points - The Halloween Prank Bowl
5. BAM vs. Bennett - 12.0 points - The Tag Team Bowl
6. Ajay vs. Zacherman - 11.0 points - The AARP Bowl
7. Kumpf vs. Levine - 10.5 points - The Joking Rivalry That Somehow Became A Real Rivalry And Oh Yeah We're Sharing A Queen Bed In Baltimore Bowl

Here is the raw data:

Each row is that team's submission, with the rankings multiplied by 10 to give more weight to the higher rated matchups. The bolded numbers at the bottom sum up each the rankings given to each team, so the higher the number, the higher weight that team was given overall. Looking closer at those numbers specifically, here is the breakdown per team, normalized to the actual ranking they were given and removing the 1 point placeholder for ranking yourself:

1. Barnard - 10.00

2. Weissbard - 9.92

3. Gutman - 8.77

4. Reap - 8.46

5. Belfer - 8.23

6. Kumpf - 8.15

7. Alan - 8.08

8. Bennett - 8.00

9. Marco - 7.69

10 (tie). Levine - 7.31

10 (tie). Zacherman - 7.31

12. Esco - 7.23

13. Ajay - 6.62

14. BAM - 6.23

Now for my analysis:

• Throughout this entire process, Barnard continually assumed that one of myself, Weissbard or Alan would be the most desirable matchup. The fact that he averaged a top-5 matchup could not be more hilarious.
• Barnard/Alan and Belfer/Reap were the only two matchups that both listed themselves as top rivals. Given the absurd process it took to split up Belfer and Reap, including a clause that doesn't allow them to meet in the playoffs before the Stevens Bowl, I'm a little bit surprised they chose each other for this.
• The only person who appears to have ranked rivals strictly in terms of how easy that team would be to play is Levine, that sly son of a bitch. In related news, Levine is also the only person who didn't get to face off with one of his top 5 rivals. Maybe if the champ stuck with the spirit of this exercise, he would be happier with his matchup.
• In terms of standard deviation, Alan was surprisingly the most polarizing team, with 5 people rating him in their top five, and 6 people rating him in their bottom five. On the extremes, Barnard was a top five matchup for 9 teams, and BAM was bottom five for 8 teams. 
• The single most frequent rating was a tie with 4 teams rating Ajay as their 12th biggest rival, BAM as their 13th biggest rival, and Zacherman as their 8th biggest rival. I don't know what that means, but I found it interesting.
• The average ranking per team lines up pretty well with the PAA outlined in my Season Preview, with a couple of exceptions. Ajay and BAM "jumped" a tier into the least desirable rivals from tier 2. My guess here is that the league really thinks that Ajay is the toughest matchup, while no one hates Billy or Marshall enough to want them as a rival. Alan jumped two tiers, which is a little bit confusing to me, but given his standard deviation it seems like some people are wary of another title run for Eli. And on the flip side, Barnard fell two tiers because literally no one is scared of him.

Overall, I think this worked out pretty well, and the rivalries make as much sense as they possibly can. I will update the schedule accordingly this week. I thoroughly enjoyed this process, and while I may have ended up with the most difficult rival, I welcome the challenge and I won't let Levine get one good night's sleep in Baltimore. See you all in a few days.

Gambling Corner - Week of 8/20

MLB Bets (Moneyline)
8/22
Reds (+210) at Brewers - Loss
Last Week: 0-1
2018 Record: 26-38 (-7.40 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 28.57% (-2.75 units)

EPL Bets (Spread)

Last Week: 0-2-1
2018-19 Spread Record: 2-3-1 (-1.30 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 53.05% (-2.46 units)

EPL Bets (Moneyline)
Tottenham (+200) at Manchester United - Win
Last Week: 0-2
2018-19 Moneyline Record: 2-2 (+1.05 units)
Historical Moneyline Win Percentage: 44.62% (-3.81 units)