Friday, January 5, 2018

Gambling Corner - Week of 1/1

For the offseason, instead of just listing gambling wins and losses, I'll include some profit/loss numbers in terms of units. I bet different amounts depending on the sport, so using units makes it easier to see how much I am making or losing. For example, I bet $25 on each NFL bet, and I'm currently up $162.74 for the season. In terms of units, that's 162.74/25 = 6.5 units of profit. So if you bet $100 on each of my bets, you would be up $650. Some sports will look a lot better than others.

NFL Wild Card Bets
538 Leaderboard update: Currently in 110th out of 19,911: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/leaderboard/
For the playoffs, I'll be betting on every game, even if I don't like the lines, and I fucking hate the lines this week.
Titans (+9) at Chiefs
Falcons (+6) at Rams
Jaguars (-9) vs. Bills
Saints (-6) vs. Panthers
Last Week: 1-3
2017 Record: 43-31-1 (+6.5 units)

For NFL Win Totals, I finished 8-3 on the bets I actually made. My system would have gone 20-11 if I made every bet, but I only made the ones I was most confident in. As for my other props, I lost Isaiah Crowell for rushing title, and I'm chalking up Cam for MVP and Fournette for OROY as losses as well. I still have Carolina at 28:1 and Pittsburgh at 10:1 for the Super Bowl.

NCAA Championship Bet
Georgia (+5) vs. Alabama
Last Week: 7-6-1
2017 Record: 50-40-8 (+3.94 units)

NBA Bets
Win Totals are currently on pace to win 16/30, well below historical average. Game bets have been even worse, but I'll include them as I make them starting next week.
2017-18 Record: 18-23-4
Historical Win Percentage: 50.13% (-19.33 units)

NCAAB Bets
Same as NBA, terrible so far but I'll include bets as I make them starting next week.
2017-18 Record: 6-13-2
Historical Win Percentage: 50.00% (-9.19 units)

EPL Bets
I've been abjectly terrible at betting on soccer this season, but I'm trying new things to see what works. Because goals are relatively infrequent, I do a mix of spread and moneyline bets each week. 
2017-18 Spread Record: 12-17-5 (-7.15 units)
2017-18 Moneyline Record: 4-10 (-4.15 units)
Historical Spread Win Percentage: 63.33% (+2.24 units)

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