Speaking of Winter Meetings, I'm going to keep a running tally of the agenda so we don't forget anything:
- PPR (half or full)
- IR slot(s)
- Name the Regular Season Champion Award the Felix Award sponsored by League Lobster
- Increase the points that DSTs score for preventing opposing offenses from scoring
AGD proposed that last one to me, and I think it's at least worth discussing. Turnovers and return TDs are notoriously difficult to predict, but points allowed is a more consistent stat. If we're going to adjust the scoring at all, I can see bumping up the values in this area. I don't think a huge correction is in order, but a small adjustment could benefit someone like Weissbard as he tries to break 50 points.
Playoff Odds
With a 13-week regular season, every fantasy matchup carries a pretty heavy weight, even by NFL standards. So while it's true that losing one game isn't the end of the world, at some point every team can start to see its future come together a little bit more clearly. To back this feeling with some actual numbers, I'll be including playoff odds each week that shows the percentage of teams with a given record that made the playoffs based on our last 3 years (the post-Kimmel era). Not a huge sample size, and points scored likely has a better correlation to future performance, but it's something.
After Week 1:
52% (11/21) of 1-0 teams made the playoffs
33% (7/21) of 0-1 teams made the playoffs
Including this just as a frame of reference. Still makes the point clear that a win is a win.
After Week 2:
50% (5/10) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
55% (12/22) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
10% (1/10) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs
Speaking to the small sample size, being 1-1 appears to be more advantageous that being 2-0. That's obviously not the case, but the point here is that you want to have at least one win after two weeks. This means we can pretty much write off Bruno and Weissbard, but it also means that Zacherman (who I previously considered a favorite) would need to defy the odds to make the playoffs.
After Week 3:
100% (4/4) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
42% (8/19) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
38% (5/13) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs
I was very surprised to see that every 3-0 team has gone on to make the playoffs. Given that there have only been 4 of them in the last three years, this isn't a total shock I guess, but you would still think that a team would have benefited from an easy schedule early on, and then fallen apart. This means that the winner of Alan/Levine is either set up for a guaranteed playoff spot, or an epic collapse.
I'll keep updating these each week, so we can keep tabs on the playoff picture earlier than usual.
Team of the Week: Barnard
It might sound easy to just hand this award to the highest scorer, but because I'm giving it to Barnard, it's as painful a decision as I've ever made. Barnard does deserve the award this week, mostly due to how he won. Putting up the most points in a week while getting next to nothing from his QB and "star" RB, is pretty impressive. However, it also speaks to the fact that Barnard really has no idea what he's doing, considering he started a DST against his QB, and got some untenable performances from Blount and Forte. If anyone can start 3-0 and then end up 3-10, it's Barnard.
Best Lineup Decision of the Week: Levine starting Ryan Tannehill over Alex Smith
Having to choose between two below average fantasy QBs isn't a fun decision. Considering Smith threw the ball almost 50 times in Week 1 and still doesn't have Jamaal Charles, Levine could have been forgiven for riding him instead of Tannehill. For some Miami fans, starting Tanny against the Pats is only a recipe for disaster. But Levine believed, and was rewarded with a 2-0 record instead of an extremely embarrassing loss to Bruno.
Worst Lineup Decision of the Week: Gutman starting Jeremy Langford/TY Hilton over Stefon Diggs
I don't think anyone can blame Gut for starting Hilton, even against Denver's D, given how Indy's offense looked in Week 1. However, starting a mediocre RB against a stout Eagles run defense, instead of the prototypical Sam Bradford target in Bradford's first game, is less defensible. Going with Diggs was by no means an obvious call. It would have taken balls. Gutman didn't show any.
Biggest Surprise of the Week: Ajay
His score ended up respectable, but I was shocked to see Ajay sitting at 29.9 heading into Sunday Night Football. This week was my fear for Ajay's team post-draft, where the lineup decisions are difficult, and no one has a huge week. He didn't really mess up his start/sit decisions, but the ceiling of this team just isn't all that high, especially given Rodgers' recent lack of stellar play. At the same time, the floor is very high (and we probably saw it this week), which gives Ajay a chance to win every single week. It's also going to make for some very stressful Sundays for our defending champ.
Biggest Matchup of Week 3: AGD vs. Zacherman
The obvious choice here would be the battle of the undefeateds in Alan vs. Levine, but both of those teams are off to solid starts. I'm more interested at Zacherman's bid to avoid 0-3 against and AGD team that has defined dominance over the last 3 years. Z was one of my post-draft Stevens Bowl picks, with the thought that he had a solid team that would get a boost with the return of Brady. Unlike the actual Pats however, Z hasn't managed so well with Brady and Gronk. Speaking of New England, AGD will be rooting hard against them on Thursday as they live and die with the Texans. I don't love that matchup for them, but Z's team has severely underproduced and is now down a Woodhead for the year. I'll take AGD in a low-scoring game.
This is also the weekly reminder that Ajay, AGD and Levine still need to name their divisions.
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