Week 3 Recap

After three weeks, Alan is the only undefeated team. If that seems like a surprising start for our first-ever champion, you would be wrong. In 2014, Alan started 4-1 before losing 6 of his last 8 games to finish 6-7. As you'll see below, this isn't entirely uncommon. Shitty starts can turn into miraculous runs, and dominant starts can turn into epic collapses. But a win is a win, and Alan has three of them without a loss. Are we witnessing the Masandaissance?


Playoff Odds

After Week 3:
100% (4/4) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
42% (8/19) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
38% (5/13) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs

After Week 4:
100% (2/2) of 4-0 teams made the playoffs
60% (6/10) of 3-1 teams made the playoffs
45% (9/20) of 2-2 teams made the playoffs
0% (0/6) of 1-3 teams made the playoffs
25% (1/4) of 0-4 teams made the playoffs

Another oddity of the small sample sizes, Gutman's wild 2014 playoff run after starting 0-4 makes that position look more desirable than going 1-3. I was more surprised to see the lack of certainty that a 3-1 record provides. Given the weirdness that we've seen so far this year, I'm predicting that we see our first playoff run after a 1-3 start, likely coming from one of the following teams:

• Zacherman gets Brady back after next week, and will presumably have a healthy Gronk.
• AGD gets Josh Gordon back, and stumbled into a legit RB1 in Christine Michael
• I won't keep "allowing" 100+ points per week right? Right?!?!

Team of the Week - Ajay

Gutman's raw point total was impressive, but he was fueled by a ridiculous game from the Chiefs D thanks to Ryan Fitzpatrick. I'm choosing Ajay here because he easily cleared 100 points while leaving a shit ton of points on his bench. Not only was his 126.5 score the highest of the year, but if he had just started Jeremy Hill over Ryan Mathews and Desean Jackson over Golden Tate (neither of which were terrible choices, but still), he would have put broken 160. That's absurd in a 14-team league that doesn't have kickers. Last week I said that we saw the floor for Ajay's team. This week we saw its ceiling.

Best Lineup Decision of the Week - Bruno starting Sammy Watkins

Some may have an issue with the way he's handled his team so far, but Bruno may be a secret genius. Literally every team that has been autodrafted has won the chef's coat. Looking at raw points, his trades with Gutman and I haven't been nearly as one-sided as they first seemed, (though obviously Sammy, Floyd, and Vereen getting hurt isn't helping things). And through three weeks, Bruno has one win and two close losses, giving him the same record as AGD, who have been Stevens Bowl contenders for the last three years. It also gives him the same record as fellow newcomer Marco, who he just defeated. And he didn't just win. He won while voluntarily taking a goose egg at WR1. That's some next level shit right there. Bruno, we are all witnesses.

Worst Lineup Decision of the Week - Barnard starting Andy Dalton against Denver instead of Jameis Winston against the Rams

I've been on record saying that Barnard has backed his way into a somewhat good team despite not really knowing that he's doing. This week does nothing to change that, as Barnard's admitted recency bias (and likely implicit racism) led him to believing in a ginger against one of the more dominant defenses in NFL history. That decision was enough for him to take his first L of the year to a quietly good BAM team.

Honorable mention goes to AGD for not only trading for Dennis Pitta, but starting him over Coby Fleener.

Biggest Surprise of the Week - Curt Menefee passing it to Bennett

It would have been cooler if it came from Chris Berman just to hear him give Bennett a nickname. Or if they just played this clip.

Biggest Matchup of Week 4 - Esco vs. Gutman

These teams, similar to BAM, are a relatively quiet 2-1. They sit at 6th and 7th in points scored, and are starting guys like Brock Osweiler, Jacob Tamme, Tavon Austin and Clive Walford. But one of these teams will be 3-1 after this week, and sitting in the driver's seat for a playoff berth. Gutman looks to have the stronger team in general, especially with Doug Martin out and Brandon Marshall banged up, but I think this comes down to MNF with the Vikings D (facing Eli) outscoring Diggs for the Esco win.

Podcast 2016.09 - X Marks The Spot

Week 2 Recap

Another week in the books, and what a week it was. High-profile injuries, some semi-close matchups, and a brewing battle for worst record between Weissbard and Bruno. Most importantly, Felix from League Lobster became arguably the most valuable non-league member we've ever seen. I'm tempted to name the regular season championship award after him, and I'll be bringing that up for vote at Winter Meetings.

Speaking of Winter Meetings, I'm going to keep a running tally of the agenda so we don't forget anything:

• PPR (half or full)
• IR slot(s)
• Name the Regular Season Champion Award the Felix Award sponsored by League Lobster
• Increase the points that DSTs score for preventing opposing offenses from scoring

AGD proposed that last one to me, and I think it's at least worth discussing. Turnovers and return TDs are notoriously difficult to predict, but points allowed is a more consistent stat. If we're going to adjust the scoring at all, I can see bumping up the values in this area. I don't think a huge correction is in order, but a small adjustment could benefit someone like Weissbard as he tries to break 50 points.

Playoff Odds

With a 13-week regular season, every fantasy matchup carries a pretty heavy weight, even by NFL standards. So while it's true that losing one game isn't the end of the world, at some point every team can start to see its future come together a little bit more clearly. To back this feeling with some actual numbers, I'll be including playoff odds each week that shows the percentage of teams with a given record that made the playoffs based on our last 3 years (the post-Kimmel era). Not a huge sample size, and points scored likely has a better correlation to future performance, but it's something.

After Week 1:
52% (11/21) of 1-0 teams made the playoffs
33% (7/21) of 0-1 teams made the playoffs

Including this just as a frame of reference. Still makes the point clear that a win is a win.

After Week 2:
50% (5/10) of 2-0 teams made the playoffs
55% (12/22) of 1-1 teams made the playoffs
10% (1/10) of 0-2 teams made the playoffs

Speaking to the small sample size, being 1-1 appears to be more advantageous that being 2-0. That's obviously not the case, but the point here is that you want to have at least one win after two weeks. This means we can pretty much write off Bruno and Weissbard, but it also means that Zacherman (who I previously considered a favorite) would need to defy the odds to make the playoffs.

After Week 3:
100% (4/4) of 3-0 teams made the playoffs
42% (8/19) of 2-1 teams made the playoffs
38% (5/13) of 1-2 teams made the playoffs
17% (1/6) of 0-3 teams made the playoffs

I was very surprised to see that every 3-0 team has gone on to make the playoffs. Given that there have only been 4 of them in the last three years, this isn't a total shock I guess, but you would still think that a team would have benefited from an easy schedule early on, and then fallen apart. This means that the winner of Alan/Levine is either set up for a guaranteed playoff spot, or an epic collapse.

I'll keep updating these each week, so we can keep tabs on the playoff picture earlier than usual.


Team of the Week: Barnard

It might sound easy to just hand this award to the highest scorer, but because I'm giving it to Barnard, it's as painful a decision as I've ever made. Barnard does deserve the award this week, mostly due to how he won. Putting up the most points in a week while getting next to nothing from his QB and "star" RB, is pretty impressive. However, it also speaks to the fact that Barnard really has no idea what he's doing, considering he started a DST against his QB, and got some untenable performances from Blount and Forte. If anyone can start 3-0 and then end up 3-10, it's Barnard.


Best Lineup Decision of the Week: Levine starting Ryan Tannehill over Alex Smith

Having to choose between two below average fantasy QBs isn't a fun decision. Considering Smith threw the ball almost 50 times in Week 1 and still doesn't have Jamaal Charles, Levine could have been forgiven for riding him instead of Tannehill. For some Miami fans, starting Tanny against the Pats is only a recipe for disaster. But Levine believed, and was rewarded with a 2-0 record instead of an extremely embarrassing loss to Bruno.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week: Gutman starting Jeremy Langford/TY Hilton over Stefon Diggs

I don't think anyone can blame Gut for starting Hilton, even against Denver's D, given how Indy's offense looked in Week 1. However, starting a mediocre RB against a stout Eagles run defense, instead of the prototypical Sam Bradford target in Bradford's first game, is less defensible. Going with Diggs was by no means an obvious call. It would have taken balls. Gutman didn't show any.


Biggest Surprise of the Week: Ajay

His score ended up respectable, but I was shocked to see Ajay sitting at 29.9 heading into Sunday Night Football. This week was my fear for Ajay's team post-draft, where the lineup decisions are difficult, and no one has a huge week. He didn't really mess up his start/sit decisions, but the ceiling of this team just isn't all that high, especially given Rodgers' recent lack of stellar play. At the same time, the floor is very high (and we probably saw it this week), which gives Ajay a chance to win every single week. It's also going to make for some very stressful Sundays for our defending champ.


Biggest Matchup of Week 3: AGD vs. Zacherman

The obvious choice here would be the battle of the undefeateds in Alan vs. Levine, but both of those teams are off to solid starts. I'm more interested at Zacherman's bid to avoid 0-3 against and AGD team that has defined dominance over the last 3 years. Z was one of my post-draft Stevens Bowl picks, with the thought that he had a solid team that would get a boost with the return of Brady. Unlike the actual Pats however, Z hasn't managed so well with Brady and Gronk. Speaking of New England, AGD will be rooting hard against them on Thursday as they live and die with the Texans. I don't love that matchup for them, but Z's team has severely underproduced and is now down a Woodhead for the year. I'll take AGD in a low-scoring game.


This is also the weekly reminder that Ajay, AGD and Levine still need to name their divisions.

Week 1 Recap

One week down, and it's easy to overreact. While some teams that lost this week will likely keep losing (Bruno, sorry about Sammy.) and some favorites will continue their winning ways (Ajay's team looks pretty well-rounded), we also saw some strong teams take a tough L (I guess that's karma for me), and some terrible teams come away with wins (Gutman may get his only win solely due to his predatory trade). For some perspective, Trevor Siemian, Jimmy Garropolo and Carson Wentz won games this week, while Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck lost.

My biggest takeaway is the lack of points being scored in our league, which I think will continue. Part of this is admittedly due to the lack of kickers, but part is also due to a generally weird draft that has left some teams scrambling. Regardless of the cause, I think the solution is some sort of PPR next year. Even adding 0.5 points per reception would help increase scoring overall, and make the league less TD-dependent. This is a discussion for Winter Meetings, but it's one I'll keep bringing up over the season. Based on my experience with kickers, we should get PPR instituted in 2023.

Additional Commissioner's note before we get started: Ajay, AGD and Levine still need to send me their division names. This shit is embarrassing, especially for AGD. No one expects much creativity from Ajay, or much communication from Levine, but AGD's creativity in this league is unparalleled. Give our division some personality.


Team of the Week: Alan

Yes, Levine had the highest score. But his total was fueled by a D-Will performance that has a clear expiration date, in addition to 48(!) passes from Alex Smith. Not that I'm upset that I lost with 100+ points or anything.

Alan may have a resurgent season in him. All of the major questions for his team had positive answers in Week 1. Is Andrew Luck back? Yes. Will Melvin Gordon ever score? Yes x2. Combine that with good performances by Shady and Abdullah, as well as putting up 100+ without much from Robinson/Decker/Olsen, and Alan's team looks better than expected. Could the Muffin Man be in line for a second (first?) chef's coat?


Best Lineup Decision of the Week: Barnard starting Blount over Hurns in the Flex

He doesn't get much love on this blog, but Barnard's lucky lineup management gave him the win this week. I was surprised that he banked on a Pats RB in an unclear situation over a Jags WR in a game where they were going throw 40+ times, but it worked. That said, it was still a terrible decision-making process and you deserved to lose.


Worst Lineup Decision of the Week: Bruno starting the Raiders D on the road vs. the Saints

While it may not be his worst roster management move of the year, I can't possibly understand the logic here. There were several better options out there (Eagles vs. Browns, Bills vs. Ravens, 49ers vs. Rams) that would have put up the 7 points required to take down Gutman. I'm not even really sure how you ended up with the Raiders D on your roster, but my recommendation is to sort the Free Agent Defenses by projected points each week and pick up the one with the highest projection. You may have blown your best chance for a win.


Biggest Surprise of the Week: Weissbard putting up 37.5 points

I could have easily put Weiss benching Kelvin and setting himself up for the Hot Potato as the worst lineup decision of the week, but his matchup would have been lost regardless. I still can't understand the logic of starting White/Pryor/Sharpe over Benjamin, given that all three of them are HUGE question marks on their own, but Kelvin coming back from an ACL against the Broncos at least gives me some pause. Still a terrible decision.

That said, this team isn't a lost cause. If you're going to have a shitty week, you might as well have a REALLY shitty week, as Russell, AP and even Martellus aren't likely to have duds like that too often, especially when Charles is hurt. The rumors around Charles don't sound great, but I'm not ready to give up on Weiss yet.

Biggest Matchup of Week 2: Ajay vs. Alan

It's difficult to have a truly important Week 2 matchup, but our only battle of undefeated teams (sponsored by UPS), is at least marginally interesting. Both teams have stud QBs on the road against stout defenses, and a stable of solid RBs liable to put up anywhere between 3-20 points. Alan can jump out to an early lead with Decker and Shady squaring off on Thursday, but I like Ajay to take the W thanks to Mathews on MNF.


Final Note

I know the podcasts have been few and far between, and I'm going to try and change that based on my/all of your availability. Especially if we have a non-Bruno trade, I'm definitely going to get both sides on a podcast to discuss. But in the interim, blog posts are easier for me, so I'll be posting as much as I can. As always, if you want to guest post, let me know. Fuck you Levine.