FALAFEL 2023 Re-Grades (Part 2)

Well that was a pretty boring Super Bowl, so I guess I'll have to provide the excitement by providing my opinions about things I provided my opinion about months ago. All the caveats are listed in Part 1, so let's get on with the last 8 trades made in 2023.

Trade Re-Grade 9
AGD Receives Deebo Samuel (Before Trade: WR34; After Trade: WR1) and Jamison Crowder (Before Trade: WR109; After Trade: WR190)
Nick Receives C.J. Stroud (Before Trade: QB6; After Trade: QB17) and Najee Harris (Before Trade: RB41; After Trade: RB33)
Some big caveats here, especially as it relates to Deebo. First, I am SHOCKED that he averaged over 20ppg after he returned Week 10. That flew under the radar. Probably because AGD were not relevant at all this season, but still. Deebo's performance automatically bumps up AGDs grade, but they still had to bench one of Deebo/Kupp/Puka/Amari, and had to start either Kareem Hunt or A.J. Dillon. Spending for 2 startable QBs is a double edged sword, because if you can't find a trade partner you have to sell low. Nick may have bought high on Stroud and sold low on Deebo, but he needed QB and RB and had a WR to spare, so the general grade theme sticks.
Original Grade: Nick: B, AGD: D+
Re-Grade: Nick: B, AGD: B-

Trade Re-Grade 10
Barnard receives Tyler Boyd (Before Trade: WR49; After Trade: WR95)
Marco receives Calvin Ridley (Before Trade: WR47; After Trade: WR6)
It takes a big man to admit when they are wrong, but it's better not to be wrong in the first place. I'll admit I was surprised to see Boyd and Ridley so close before the trade, but this would be the worst trade in FALAFEL history if it didn't become the best trade in FALAFEL history a couple weeks later.
Original Grade: Marco: A; Barnard: D+
Re-Grade: Marco: A+; Barnard: F

Trade Re-Grade 11
Gutman receives Zay Flowers (Before Trade: WR47; After Trade: WR6)
Marco receives Zach Charbonnet (Before Trade: RB65; After Trade: RB33)
I called this a win-win in the moment and it remains that way. Both teams traded backups for starters (Charbs covered for an injured KW3 for a few weeks). Gut got the better performance, but Marco's addition was arguably more important because it was an RB and he was in the playoff race.
Original Grade: Marco A-; Gutman: B+
Re-Grade: Gutman: A-; Marco: B+

Trade Re-Grade 12
Marco receives Bijan Robinson (Before Trade: RB22; After Trade: RB3) and Tank Dell (Before Trade: WR17; After Trade: WR14)
Weissbard receives De'Von Achane (Before Trade: RB1; After Trade: RB22) and Garrett Wilson (Before Trade: WR25; After Trade: WR20)
Some small sample size theater here with Achane, but the real impact of this trade was felt in Week 15, where Marco needed Bijan to step up and he most certainly did not. Achane wouldn't have changed the outcome either, so there's no real penalty for that, but this trade will be remembered for Marco's first round fizzle, even if he ended up ahead overall. (Reminder that Tank's injury is not factored into the grade.)
Original Grade: Weissbard: C+; Marco: C-
Re-Grade: Marco: B; Weissbard: B-

Trade Re-Grade 13
Ajay receives Tee Higgins (Before Trade: WR49; After Trade: WR64) and Chargers D/ST (Before Trade: DST15; After Trade: DST 20)
Barnard receives Darrell Henderson Jr. (Before Trade: RB37; After Trade: RB26, Tyjae Spears (Before Trade: RB47; After Trade: RB42), and Browns D/ST (Before Trade: DST1; After Trade: DST28)
Typically I wouldn't even consider the DST part of this trade, but the Browns were legitimately studs last year, so I have to assume that factored into what Barnard was getting (as opposed to the Chargers, who Ajay started twice). The Browns promptly dropped to almost the bottom of the league, as the ultimate example of buying high. Context matters here too, as Ajay was already in the playoffs at this point, so he could wait for Higgins to presumably return healthy. Barnard needed RB help desperately and after this trade he...still needed RB help desperately, as Henderson played one game before Kyren Williams (lol) returned and Hendo was cut (double lol).
Original Grade: Ajay: B+; Barnard: C+
Re-Grade: Ajay: B; Barnard: D+

Trade Re-Grade 14
Esco receives Trevor Lawrence (Before Trade: QB28; After Trade: QB1), Gus Edwards (Before Trade: RB22; After Trade: RB40), and Calvin Ridley (Before Trade: WR47; After Trade: WR6)
Marco receives Tua Tagovailoa (Before Trade: QB12; After Trade: QB29), Antonio Gibson (Before Trade: RB48; After Trade: RB46), and Brandin Cooks (Before Trade: WR49; After Trade: WR36)
This of course was a trade taken directly from my Mock Trades post, forcing me to give A's to both teams. Upon further review, it's pretty one sided. Esco's moves led to his miracle run to the Stevens Bowl, and Marco's moves led to his first round exit. I understand the logic from both sides (obviously), but things panned out far better for Esco, especially given the playoff performances from Gus and Tua.
Original Grade: Esco: A; Marco: A
Re-Grade: Esco: A; Marco: C

Trade Re-Grade 15
Barnard receives Calvin Ridley (Before Trade: WR47; After Trade: WR10) and David Njoku (Before Trade: TE14; After Trade: TE4)
Esco receives Tyler Boyd (Before Trade: WR49; After Trade: WR95) and Dalton Schultz (Before Trade: TE8; After Trade: TE24)
Ahhh...Ridley/Boyd II. What a weirdly and potentially impactful trade. From what I can tell, Barnard made this trade due to the criticism he received for the first Ridley/Boyd trade, and also to get Njoku teamed up with Jeudy. Esco did this purely for the lols, but that came back to bite him as he made his surprising run to the Stevens Bowl and could have really used Ridley and Njoku's scoring in the finals. It wouldn't have changed the outcome, but it would have made for a better Stevens Bowl.
Original Grade: Barnard: B-; Esco: B-
Re-Grade: Barnard: A; Esco: D

Trade Re-Grade 16
Ajay receives Amon-Ra St. Brown (Before Trade: WR4; After Trade: WR38)
Nick receives James Conner (Before Trade: RB32; After Trade: RB21) and DK Metcalf (Before Trade: WR24; After Trade: WR4)
For Ajay, this trade was entirely about the playoffs (where ARSB put up WR1 numbers), and not the 3-game cameo in the regular season. I want to take a second to point out that in 16 regular season games, ARSB only scored less than 11.2 points once. That consistent greatness was overlooked this year. Anyway, Nick needed a miracle three-week stretch, and while he didn't get it, Conner and DK kept him in play for his namesake playoff spot til the very end. Good trade all around.
Original Grade: Ajay: A-; Nick: B
Re-Grade: Nick: A-; Ajay: B+

Re-Grade GPA Shifts
Ajay (6 trades): Original GPA: 2.83; New GPA: 2.6; Change: -.23
Barnard (6 trades): Original GPA: 1.78; New GPA: 2.28; Change: +0.5
Marco (5 trades): Original GPA: 3.28; New GPA: 3.12; Change: -0.16
Esco (3 trades): Original GPA: 3.23; New GPA: 2.67; Change: -0.56
Nick (3 trades): Original GPA: 2.77; New GPA: 2.47; Change: -0.3
Weissbard (3 trades): Original GPA: 2.77; New GPA: 2.9; Change: +0.13
AGD (2 trades): Original GPA: 2.5; New GPA: 3.0; Change: +0.5
Gutman (2 trades): Original GPA: 3.0; New GPA: 3.5; Change: +0.5
Bennett (1 trade): Original GPA: 2.7; New GPA: 3.3; Change: +0.6
Zacherman (1 trade): Original GPA: 4.0; New GPA: 3.0; Change: -1.0

No Trades: Alan, Billy, Kumpf, Levine

So I guess I was a little hard on Barnard the first go-round, but he still ends up with a GPA lower than what I got in undergrad, so I feel like the overall message was clear. I also want to point out that only one playoff team made no trades, and the average playoff team made 2.67 trades. Congrats to Marco as the most successful high volume trader, and boo to Barnard for being the worst trader independent of volume.

I have grand plans to re-grade the draft and look at FAAB bids, but we'll see if/when that happens. 

FALAFEL 2023 Trade Re-Grades (Part 1)

The Super Bowl is on Sunday, we still have a few weeks before Draft Location Madness starts up, and I still don't have a job, so it feels like that most productive thing I can do with my time is re-grade trades that I originally graded over the last season. Some people (Barnard) felt like they were discriminated against the first go-round, but as anyone who has done the C-minus dance knows, asking for a re-grade can also mean your grade goes down. I honestly have no idea how this will work out, but rather than my somewhat subjective process during the season, I'm going to try to be a little bit more scientific this time.

Methodology

There is no perfect way to do this, so I've settled on the following process:

• Fantasy regular season stats only. I will make adjustments for trades that were made by teams that were clearly in the playoffs already, but the goal is always to make the playoffs in the first place. After that, it's a crapshoot (see: Bennett is our reigning champion).
• Compare a player's average PPG before the trade and after the trade, and then compare those numbers to the positional average.
• Example: Nick traded for C.J. Stroud after Week 9. At that point he was averaging 19.64 PPG, which would have been QB6 for the season. After the trade (for the rest of the FANTASY regular season), he averaged 16.99 PPG, which would have been QB17 for the season. In this case, Nick's grade decreases for Stroud.
• Consider the specific rosters involved.
• Example: Zacherman traded for Justin Jefferson, and only got one regular season start out of him. However, he was basically guaranteed to make the playoffs, he had Keenan Allen on his team already, and he made a number of moves to fill out his WR slot(s) to finish out the regular season. In this case, Zacherman's grade will not be decreased (as much) for JJ's 3.7 regular season points after the trade.
• Injuries don't matter. That's oversimplifying things, but in general, injuries are unpredictable (Tua stayed healthy all year, Rodgers played 4 snaps), likely don't factor into trade discussions, and if a player is ruled out, you can sub him out. 
• The obvious exception here is if a player is traded when he's already hurt (JJ) or he's widely considered injury prone (Mike Williams). 
• I am counting games where players left with injuries in their stats, because it is likely they would have been started that week.
• Once I have the PPG numbers and adjustments, I will assign new grades and see how they compare to the old ones.
• This is obviously not perfect, but it will at least be consistent.
• It also matters less early in the season when the "Before Trade" sample size is smaller. I'll include it no matter what, but that's a big caveat.
• This is Part 1 of 2, so I will cover the first 8 trades made this season.

Trade Re-Grade 1

Nick receives Dalvin Cook (Before Trade: N/A; After Trade: RB91)
Weissbard receives Tyler Allgeier (Before Trade: N/A; After Trade: RB47 and Jamaal Williams (Before Trade: N/A; After Trade: RB78)

Some of these trades may be too close to call, if they involve different positions, different team situations, etc. This is not one of those. The rare preseason trade saw Weissbard get rid of a terrible Dalvin and pick up a flex candidate in Allgeier and a decent handcuff in Jamaal. 

Original Grades: Weissbard: B+; Nick: C+

Re-Grade: Weissbard: B+; Nick: D-

Trade Re-Grade 2

Bennett receives Jamaal Williams (Before Trade: RB48; After Trade: RB79)and Gabe Davis (Before Trade: WR89; After Trade: WR42)
Weissbard receives Christian Watson (Before Trade: N/A; After Trade: WR45) and Tutu Atwell (Before Trade: WR6; After Trade: WR68)

Weissbard thought he was buying low on Watson and selling low on Gabe (while probably knowing he was buying high on Tutu). All of those things were correct, but Gabe's 21 points in the semi-finals (not considered in the ranking stats) had a lot to do with BMO beating Ajay by less than a point (Watson and Tutu combined for 0.0).

Original Grades: Bennett: B-; Weissbard: B-

Re-Grade: Bennett: B+; Weissbard: B-

Trade Re-Grade 3

AGD receives Najee Harris (Before Trade: RB66; After Trade: RB35) and Amari Cooper (Before Trade: WR76; After Trade: WR36) 
Ajay receives Justin Herbert (Before Trade: QB3; After Trade: QB13)  and James Conner (Before Trade: RB37; After Trade: RB26) 

This is probably the most consequential trade made all season, but not for the obvious reasons. Herbert's injury doesn't really affect things here, as he got hurt in Week 14 and this just focuses on the regular season, but the aftermath of the trade literally changed who won the title. If Ajay didn't make this trade, he would have had Dak (QB5) and Goff (QB16), as well as Cooper, who put up 46 in the semi-finals where again, Ajay lost by less than a point. The Najee/Conner swap appeared to be the headline here, but is really an afterthought (and weirdly they both got like half of their NFL regular season points after the fantasy regular season).

Original Grades: AGD: A-; Ajay: C-

Re-Grade: AGD B+; Ajay: D

Trade Re-Grade 4

Ajay receives Mike Williams (Before Trade: WR64 ; After Trade: WR4)
Barnard receives Kyren Williams (Before Trade: RB3; After Trade: RB3)

This is probably the weirdest trade to grade, then or now. Mike Williams will always be an IR-stint waiting to happen. But when he's healthy, he is a legit starting WR, that Barnard had stuck to his bench. Kyren started the season on fire, and against all odds kept it up, as probably the most valuable player in the league given his draft cost. I don't fault either team for making this trade. It's impossible to grade this rationally knowing what comes in two sections, but this is as close to a master stroke that Barnard has made without PornHub involved.

Original Grades: Ajay: B+; Barnard: D

Re-Grade: Barnard: A-; Ajay: C+

We had a weird six week lull with no trades, so moving forward the Before/After will weigh more heavily in the re-grades.

Trade Re-Grade 5

Gutman receives Jahmyr Gibbs (Before Trade: RB27; After Trade: RB4) and Pierre Strong Jr. (Before Trade: RB80; After Trade: RB96)
Marco receives Trevor Lawrence (Before Trade: QB22; After Trade: QB6) and De'Von Achane (Before Trade: RB1; After Trade: RB22)

Similar to Big Mike, my methodology breaks down for someone like Achane, who played essentially 5 regular season games (this is a case where the injury does matter as he was hurt at the time), and got 50 points in one of them. Even if we consider him a flex option to split the baby between RB1 and injured, Marco traded a legit RB1 for a QB1 and a Flex. He was massively lacking at QB at the time, so I stand pretty much by my initial assessment, with Gut getting a boost from Gibbs.

Original Grades: Marco: B; Gutman: B-

Re-Grade: Gutman: B+; Marco: B

Trade Re-Grade 6

Ajay receives Kyren Williams (Before Trade: RB3; After Trade: RB2)
Barnard receives Jerry Jeudy (Before Trade: WR62; After Trade: WR69) and Dalton Schultz (Before Trade: TE9; After Trade: TE8)

I still can't believe Barnard traded Kyren back to Ajay, let alone for a WR5 and a stream-able TE. I feel like we didn't make a big enough deal about this at the time. Granted, Kyren was hurt at the time and Barnard needed to rally to even think about the playoffs, but this trade left him starting Zeke (three times!), Darrell Henderson, and Tyjae Spears at RB. He started Jeudy and Schultz a combined 8 times for the rest of the season.

Original Grades: Ajay: A; Barnard: D-

Re-Grade: Ajay: A; Barnard: D

Trade Re-Grade 7

Barnard receives Ezekiel Elliott (Before Trade: RB48; After Trade: RB37), DJ Moore (Before Trade: WR6; After Trade: WR13), and Michael Thomas (Before Trade: WR47; After Trade: WR99)
Zacherman receives Justice Hill (Before Trade: RB46; After Trade: RB79), Justin Jefferson (Before Trade: WR3; After Trade: WR96), and Pat Freiermuth (Before Trade: TE26; After Trade: TE17)

Lots of moving pieces in this trade, without much of them amounting to anything. Zacherman made his Stevens Bowl swing, and while it paid no dividends in the regular season, JJ did put up WR8 numbers in the playoffs (DJM was WR18). For Barnard, getting DJM was nice, but trading for Zeke somehow made him feel set at RB, which was unequivocally wrong. Can't keep Z at an A here, but Barnard stays the same.

Original Grades: Zacherman: A; Barnard: B-

Re-Grade: Zacherman: B; Barnard: B-

Trade Re-Grade 8

Ajay Receives Keyontay Ingram (Before Trade: RB72; After Trade: RB128)
Esco Receives Jeff Wilson Jr. (Before Trade: RB79; After Trade: RB72)

Ending Part 1 with a doozy! This was a backup handcuff trade at the time, and stayed that way. El Jeffe played after the trade and Keyontay really didn't so Esco "wins" here. Impact matters so no one gets super high or low.

Original Grades: Esco: B; Ajay: B- 

Re-Grade: Esco: B; Ajay: C

Back with Part 2 next week (or something like that.)

Stevens Bowl XV Recap

After the absurdity in the semi-finals, it was always unlikely that the Stevens Bowl would reach the same heights, and that proved to be correct. While it was a well-earned and a decade-and-a-half in the making championship for Bennett, beating a team featuring Jeff Wilson Jr. and DeMario Douglas wasn't the same as beating Kyren Williams(!) and Amon-Ra St. Brown the previous week. Hopefully Billy can find some solace in the fact that he was probably not going to beat Bennett in the finals anyway, hopefully Esco can find some solace in being the first 3-time Stevens Bowl loser, and hopefully Ajay can find some solace in Bailey Zappe.

With Bennett's title, that leaves Zacherman, Marco, Nick, and of course Barnard as the only non-champs left after 15 years. Marco joined after year 7-ish, and Nick was sour grapes for a couple years, so it's really just Z and Barnard who are approaching having spent half their lives in this league with nothing to show for it other than some personalized golf balls and penis confetti. Z remains the People's Champion heading into next year, and Barnard remains in search of a Runningback.

I hope to do some deep dives into draft/trade/waiver quality in the coming weeks, but let's give BMO their time in the sun first. Here are the 5 reasons that BMO is our Stevens Bowl Champ:

5. Spending $85 draft dollars on Josh Allen and Tyreek Hill.
It's easy to say "draft good players." It's harder to have the balls to win high priced auctions for those players. BMO went heavy on Josh Allen and Reek (and Josh Jacobs, who was by no means a bust), and got rewarded with the #1 QB and #2 WR on the season. I'll call this a modified Billy approach, and when it hits, it's a guaranteed playoff birth. 

4. Not being blinded by the Eagles.
I'll give Mejia full credit for this one. In 15 years, Bennett has ALWAYS had at least one Eagle. This dates back to the Hank Baskett days, but in recent years the strategy has paid off. Coming off a close Super Bowl loss, with an easy schedule, I would have assumed Bennett would spend his entire draft budget on Jalen and Co., but instead he showed restraint and only ended up with Swift and Goedert. I didn't love Swift as an RB2, but $14 was a steal in hindsight, and Goedert for $13 wasn't going to sink the season one way or another. Had you gone for Hurts/AJB/Penny instead of Josh/Reek, you would have had a fine year but you wouldn't be getting sized for Chef apparel.

3. Trading for Gabe Davis.
Bennett is notoriously difficult to trade with, however Weissbard was able to get a deal done way back in September that was seemingly unimportant at the time. A perpetually banged up Christian Watson and a Wally-Pipped Tutu Atwell for another team's handcuff in Jamaal Williams and the ultimate boom/bust WR in Gabe Davis. Three of those four players had no real impact on the 2023 season, but the fourth one certainly did.

2. Starting Gabe Davis in the semi-finals.

Heading into Week 16, Gabe had hit double digit scoring just five times all year. When he does hit, it tends to be for close to 20 (only three games between 5-15), and that delivered in spades against Ajay. Hitting a double dip TD is possibly the best feeling in fantasy (outside of getting a Coat), and the Chargers made damn sure that Josh and Gabe connected on Christmas Eve Eve.

1. 2.38 Points
Any championship requires its share of luck, but this year was pretty wild. Winning two playoff matchups by a combined 2.38 points is unheard of. If Ajay or Zacherman had started different QBs (would have been crazy for Z, but Ajay had a decision to make), we're never thinking about your team again. And if you ended up as the 3 seed instead of the 5 seed, you would have lost to Esco in Round 1.

The only trade BMO made was the aforementioned Gabe Davis move. The only major FAAB player was Keaton Mitchell, who didn't even play in the playoffs. This was a very well-drafted team that didn't do anything to screw it up over the course of the season, and benefitted from some insanely close matchup luck in the playoffs.

Now for the real question: Two coats or one really big one?

Stevens Bowl XV Preview

I am starting this post on Wednesday morning. I waited a day because I couldn't figure out how to kick things off, but the most dramatic stat correction in FALAFEL history changed all that. The only remotely similar feeling in sports is when a game-winning score is under review for some obscure rule. If we all knew that ESPN fucked up, that would be one thing, but a muffed punt between two below-average teams on Christmas Eve was not being talked about at all. Billy went from the People's Champ to an all-time horror story, Esco went from an over-achieving also ran to a potential Chef's Hat, and Bennett went from a punchline to the favorite for a Chef's Coat. Fantasy is weird, man.

Before we get to the usual preview, it's time for the usual song and dance:

MEJIA! ESCO! BENNETT! It's The Stevens Bowl XV!
(They have added an AI component that I can't really understand, but that's one step closer to Barnard being in one of these)

Now it's on to the usual Dr. Z breakdown:

Stevens Bowl XV: BMO vs. Esco

Quarterback
We're starting with one that looks easy on the surface. Josh Allen could play his way into a wide open MVP conversation if he leads the Bills to a comeback division title. That requires a win this week at home against the Pats. Unless we get another Wind Bowl, Josh has a floor of 20 (he's only been below 4 times this year, twice since Week 6), and he put up 24 in New England a couple months back. 

Esco's QB situation, on the other hand, has been a comedy/tragedy all year. He drafted Tua, with Kyler as an upside backup once Tua inevitably got concussed. My Adult Son shockingly has stayed healthy and productive, but a weirdly significant trade with Marco left Esco with a banged up and maddeningly inconsistent Trevor Lawrence. Tough decisions at QBs are the worst, because it can be a 10+ point mistake, and can lead you to seriously consider starting Tommy DeVito with your season on the line. The upside here is that both Kyler and Lawrence have good matchups this week. Right now it seems like Lawrence legitimately might not play, but even if he does, I like Kyler against Philly's porous pass defense (adding insult to injury for Bennett). Either way, I don't like the matchups enough to go against Josh.
Edge: BMO

Runningbacks
Some health concerns for Mostert and Jacobs make this one a little bit blurry at the moment. That would probably benefit BMO, as if Jacobs can't go, Zamir can be plugged right in. If Mostert isn't 100%, McD might just put him on a pitch count and give touches to Achane or El Jeffe. Assuming the top guys are healthy, this is close. Mostert could easily have 20 yards and 3 TDs, but the matchups are heavily in favor of Bennett.
Edge: BMO

Wide Receivers
The Ravens pass defense is no slouch, but it's very possible that Reek outscores every other WR on these two teams combined (assuming Waddle is out). Nice that Demarcus Robinson might get to make his Stevens Bowl debut though.
Big Edge: BMO

Tight End
Lots of mediocrity here, so this one comes down to touchdowns. Whoever Esco benches will definitely score, but not sure about the starters.
Edge: Even

Flex
If Esco wants a Chef Hat, it will come down to Gus. Miami's run defense has been firmly above average all year, but I assume they will sell out to stop Lamar, leaving some room for the Gus Bus. If he can deliver a 25+ point game like he did against AZ earlier in the year, the overall matchup will be tight. I can't see Belichick letting Gabe Davis go off AGAIN, so this position is an easy call.
Big Edge: Esco

D/ST
Esco didn't even think he was going to make the playoffs, let alone the Stevens Bowl, so he was ill-prepared for the D/ST hoarding that takes place every year around the holidays. Nothing wrong with the Steel Curtain with an average-ish matchup against Seattle, but I would take all three of BMO's defenses over Pitt. Now watch TJ Watt outscore Josh Allen.
Edge: BMO

Overall
On paper, this looks like a blowout. Bennett has a pretty clear edge at almost every position, along with better matchups and a better health situation. But Esco has looked like the team of destiny since Mostert sunk my dreams in Week 14. Will I have to decide how to handle a multiple Chef Coat situation? Or will the average height of Chef Hats increase significantly? And is this all just an elaborate JuJu ruse? We'll find out on NYE.
Pick: Mejia

I plan on doing a couple lookbacks in the coming weeks, but the blog could just as easily be left alone until Draft Location Madness in three months.

Week 14 Playoff Picture

One week from the playoffs! Rivalry Week II! A playoff picture shakeup! Lots of big stuff this week, so let's jump right in.

If the season ended today, the playoffs would be:

1. Ajay - BYE - Best Regular Season Record, Alan Division Champ
2. Marco - BYE - Bennett Division Champ
3. Billy - Wild Card 1
4. Zacherman - Levine Division Champ
5. Bennett - Wild Card 2
6. Kumpf - NiJo Spot

Things are finally a little different here. Ajay has clinched everything possible, Zacherman falls out of the bye for the first time since he draft Mahomes and Kelce, and I enter the playoff picture for the first time since I drafted Akers and Pierce.

Everyone has something to play for this week, even if it's just the second Rivalry Week prize or weekly high score. But for some teams this week just means more, so I'll run through those teams.

Ajay - Clinched Best Regular Season Record, Alan Division Championship, and bye. Boring.

Marco - Clinched playoffs. Should clinch Bennett Division Championship and a bye with a win vs. Gutman. If Marco wins AND Billy (46) OR Zacherman (50) wins and makes up points, Marco could fall out of the bye. If Marco loses, he could fall all the way to 5th if Billy and Z make up points AND Bennett wins.

Billy - Clinched playoffs. Similar position to Marco in that he could end up anywhere from 2nd (bye) to 5th, with an outside shot at falling to NiJo spot. Billy can clinch the division and a bye with a win against Bennett, Marco losing to Gutman AND Z either losing to AGD OR Z beating AGD and not outscoring Billy by 4. Billy would fall to the NiJo spot with a loss to Bennett, Zacherman beating AGD OR losing and outscoring Billy by 4, AND Kumpf beating Barnard AND outscoring Billy by 51. 

Zacherman - Clinched playoffs. Essentially the same situation as Billy but with 4 less points scored so far. Can finish anywhere from the second bye to NiJo spot.

Bennett - Clinched playoffs. Even with a loss, Bennett has scored 123 more points than the 7th highest scoring team, so the NiJo spot is the absolute worst he can finish. In terms of upside, he still has an outside shot at the bye. Bennett would need to beat Billy, have Marco lose to Gutman while not outscoring Bennett by 24, AND have Z lose to AGD. Not impossible, but not likely.

Now for the fun part. The NiJo spot is still pretty wide open, with Billy, Z and Bennett potentially getting involved in a surprising race depending on how things break.

Kumpf - Can clinch the playoffs as the 5 seed with a win against Barnard AND Billy beating Bennett. That's surprisingly feasible though the JT injury hurts. If I lose to Barnard OR Bennett beats Billy, then it comes down to the NiJo spot, where I have a 1.5 point lead over Esco. That means it's essentially me vs. Esco even though we're not playing each other. I don't remember having this situation before but it's a fun byproduct of the NiJo rule.

Esco - Can only make the playoffs via NiJo rule. Would need to outscore me by 1.5 regardless of the outcome of either of our matchups. He also just lost Lawrence and Kirk, and Kyler is on bye. Saquon is back at least?

And that's it. I will manually set the seeds after MNF next week, and all eliminated teams will have their rosters "frozen" in that I will manually undo any moves that are made starting Week 15 unless that team is still alive.

Wait... is that Nick and Alan's music???

I had mentally written off everyone else, but we still have two other teams very much alive for the NiJo spot.

Nick - After a massive Week 13, Nick re-established himself as a playoff contender and is now only 17 points behind me and Esco. Conner on a bye puts a lot of pressure on Aaron Jones getting healthy, but Nick has had two weeks in the 140s so far this year. Another one would more than likely put him in the playoffs.

Alan - As always, you can never write Alan off. He held serve against me this week which was all he needed to do to make up ground on Esco, and he now sits only 30 points back of us. His team is both healthy and not on byes, with some decent matchups as well. He has not had as many boom weeks as Nick, but his consistency makes him a threat to crash the playoff party and single handedly keep the embroidered chef attire industry in business.

Technically Gutman is alive too, but making up 71 points on me and passing three other teams isn't going to happen.

My official prediction for the playoff field:

1. Ajay

2. Marco

3. Zacherman

4. Bennett

5. Billy

6. Alan