Trade Grade 9

 Before we get to this week's trade, we need a quick playoff preview!

If the season ended today, the playoffs would be:
1. Zacherman (BYE) - Levine Division Champion, Best Regular Season Record
2. Ajay (BYE) - Alan Division Champion
3. Billy - Bennett Division Champion
4. Bennett - Wild Card 1
5. Marco - Wild Card 2
6. Esco - NiJo Spot

Those teams are the top six in scoring, HOWEVER, things are far from locked up. Bennett and Marco are 5-4, as is Gutman, and we have FIVE teams art 4-5. A single win or loss can make a massive difference at this point. Esco currently has a 65 point lead in the NiJo spot, which is a relatively large gap at this point, so just winning games matters the most for teams not currently in the playoffs (ANALYSIS!). 

No teams are officially in the playoffs (though I can't picture Z missing out, recent slide aside), and no one is officially eliminated (though Levine, Weissbard, and AGD have a lot of ground to gain). The trade deadline is November 24th, so the next two weeks should make the playoff picture a lot more clear.

SEGUE!

Trade Grade 9
AGD Receives Deebo Samuel and Jamison Crowder
Nick Receives C.J. Stroud and Najee Harris

I honestly have no idea what's going on with AGD. I didn't love their draft, though Puka for $1 is one of the better picks in FALAFEL history, and almost every move after that has been a head scratcher. Their trade with Ajay aged decently well, but bidding $30 more than any other team for Stroud when they already have Lamar? Then trading Stroud for Deebo, who is not only always injured, but forces one of Kupp/Amari/Puka to the bench? I understand that wins are vital at this point, but I also have to assume that you could have made some sort of move for an RB, or a WR upgrade, as opposed to an additional WR that will create brutal lineup decisions. Nick clearly needed a QB, loves his Ohio State boys, and seemed desperate to unload one of his Lions. Not a fan of this move.

From Nick's side, well done. Stroud is not only a big upgrade at QB, but he's fun to watch and leaves you with Chase and ARSB at WR still. Flex is a glaring issue, but I'd rather roll the dice with your options there than at QB, let alone the trade that we were discussing.

AGD Grade: D+
Nick Grade: B

Trade Grade 8

Ajay Receives Keyontay Ingram
Esco Receives Jeff Wilson Jr.

Not loving these weekend trades for grading purposes, but as always the analysis is as of when the trade occurred.

This is about as small potatoes as a trade gets, though I feel like we do have a lot of these 2nd/3rd string RB swaps in our league due to the importance of handcuffs. With that in mind, the logic on both sides is clear. Ajay got a (theoretical) starting RB for one week, who is the second string handcuff to Conner when everyone is healthy. Esco got the handcuff to Mostert, who is already not even getting a full workload in Miami when Achane is healthy. No issue with what either side gave up, and I've already said too much about this move. Slight edge to Esco because Mostert has a (barely) more significant injury history than Conner, the Miami offense is better than Arizona's, and Wilson will get more touches than Ingram no matter who is healthy.

Ajay Grade: B-
Esco Grade: B

Trade Grade 7

Barnard receives Ezekiel Elliott, DJ Moore, and Michael Thomas
Zacherman receives Justice Hill, Justin Jefferson, and Pat Freiermuth

You can't fault Barnard for trying. The team he drafted was absurdly bad, and it only got worse with the Jefferson injury and pretty much every move Barnard made. But he keeps trying and we respect that.

This move I actually like on the surface for both teams. For Z, it's easy to understand. He downgrades at WR in the short term, while giving himself championship upside once JJ returns. He even got Justice Hill out of the deal, giving him some additional flex depth. With a two-game lead for the best record, this is the type of move that gets you a chef coat.

For Barnard, he basically gave up Hill (who was scarily his RB2) for three starters. This says a lot about the quality of his roster, but it's the type of move he needed to make to keep his hopes alive (or at least stay out of the shot spot). I have always loved DJM, and the inclusions of both Zeke and Thomas is undeniably hilarious, no notes. My biggest beef with the move for Barnard is that he definitely could have gotten more for JJ. Z made the most sense as a trading partner, but Bennett, Ajay, and obviously Marco would probably have made solid offers. Hell, I would have probably made a better offer and I'm only in a slightly better position than Barnard. From a value perspective, Barnard should get a low A, from an opportunity cost perspective, we're in the C- range that I know so well.

Barnard Grade: B-
Zacherman Grade: A

Trade Grades 5-6

When it rains it pours this season, with trades flying in all at once and somehow always involving Kyren Williams of all people. I wouldn't say that we've had a true blockbuster yet, but other than Z, Levine (shockingly), and Barnard (not shockingly), pretty much everyone is in a similar spot in the playoff race. A 3-game winning or losing streak should probably change that before we hit the trade deadline.

Trade 5
Gutman receives Jahmyr Gibbs and Pierre Strong Jr.
Marco receives Trevor Lawrence and De'Von Achane

We're just about at the point in the season where trade grades can focus on individual players instead of simply on team composition. The one massive exception to that rule this year is Achane. He's clearly a speed demon, but there are quite a few things working against him:
1. The Miami backfield is extremely crowded now that Jeff Wilson is back from injury. Given Wilson and Mostert's history, this health probably won't last long, but it still limits Achane's potential touches.
2. Miami's schedule has been incredibly easy so far, and gets incredibly difficult for the rest of the season. We saw how that played out in Philly on Sunday, and it also limits potential touches.
3. He's hurt! There are 7 more weeks in the fantasy regular season, and Achane will be playable in 4 of those weeks MAX. His specific injury doesn't seem like a huge risk for reoccurrence, but humans are not supposed to move as fast as he does, so I wouldn't be shocked to see him go down again.

Obviously there are other players in the deal, but Achane likely swings it in one direction or the other. Marco's team is deep enough that even if he just upgraded at QB, that's enough for it to be a solid trade for him, with Achane as a potential cherry on top. But it's not a home run.

For Gutman, he had no choice but to trade one of his QBs, and Achane probably made sense to ditch as well now that Ford went down. Picking up Strong was a nice benefit, and Gibbs should hold down the fort for a few weeks, so I see the logic here too. I can safely call this a win-win, with Achane looming as a league winner for Marco if everything breaks right.

Gutman Grade: B-
Marco Grade: B

Trade 6
Ajay receives Kyren Williams
Barnard receives Jerry Jeudy and Dalton Schultz

These two again? What a weird season these two teams have had, and the fact that Kyren has played such a big role is beyond bizarre. For this specific trade, it reeks of desperation (and potential comedy) on the Barnard side, while it sets Ajay's roster up for a playoff run.

Ajay's logic is easy to follow here. Schultz would never start over Hock, and Jeudy was expendable with Addison looking legit, so he didn't really give up much beyond WR depth. That should be easy enough to fill by flipping Spears, Wilson, or Latavius if needed. Mike Williams would make this team look a hell of a lot better, but cornering the Rams RB rotation is good business.

As usual, I don't really understand Barnard's logic unless he's going full comedy. Adding the two most Jewish sounding players in the league fits his team name and is a nice tribute to the situation in Israel, so if that was the goal, I rescind any criticism. If he's trying to make a playoff run, this is nonsensical. Jeudy is a poor man's Ridley, who is frustrating enough to own, and he is heavily rumored to get traded, which will limit his performance for at least a few weeks. And Schultz is the definition of a streaming TE, exemplified by the fact that I've added and dropped him multiple times (that goes for basically a third of the league, but still). Kyren being injured doesn't help Barnard's short term success, but he was scoring enough TDs that I have to imagine someone would have given up a legit starter for him. On top of all that, Ajay has Addison, making him a prime candidate for a Jefferson deal. I'm sure it was discussed, but that should have been a mandatory aspect of this trade. If Ajay wasn't in my division I would be reveling in this insanity, but because it negatively affects my miniscule playoff odds, I'm more disappointed that Barnard seems to have learned nothing in nearly 15 years.

Ajay Grade: A-
Barnard Grade: D-

Guest Blog - Marco

Editor's Note: Marco submitted this post, apparently worked with Weissbard, and I lightly edited. As always, anyone can submit a post.

Kevin ain't got a job and he's still making the browns do all his work. I would say Texas has changed him, but I guess he's always been like this. With that being said, what a predictable unpredictable start to the NFL and fantasy football season. I guess there's two things you can always count on though in the NFL and Falafel - the Commanders getting blown out at home and Barnard's team being an absolute JOKE... but I digress. 

I'll lead off by saying I don't have the data to support this and it's solely based on feeling, but it feels as though this has been one of the highest scoring starts to the season in Falafel history with 13 instances of teams scoring over 110 and over 4 instances of breaching the 120 mark all within three weeks.

There's a lot of interesting teams to discuss (and some not so interesting ones, lol Bernard) and a couple of potential juicy matchups so let's hop right into Korrupt Kommish Kevin's tried and true format of power rankings and matchup of the week. I'll exclude myself from these, but y'all know where I stand:

Editor's Note: Marco apparently thinks of himself as a perpetual underachiever whose glory days were nearly 20 years ago.

Writers note: I was going to do this for every team, but I honestly lost steam after Nijo. So for now I'm just going to include my predicted playoff teams. 

Week 4 Power Rankings:

The "Ins":

1) ZBALL:
Zball's earned it. After making us watch a Jets preseason game with Rodgers to see him promptly get shelved 4 plays into the season, he deserves some good news here. His team is stacked from QB all the way down to his defense with some long shots stashed as well. He's below average (in points scored) and comes first (in points against), but fantasy football is a game of luck as we all know. He's got some critical matches coming up against some perennial contenders (Levine, myself, Dan) (Editor: One of those things is not like the other) and some perennial pretenders (Bennett) and if he takes 2 out of the 4 I think he stacks up REALLY nicely for a first week bye in the playoffs.

2) Nijo:
Nijo comes in at second in the power rankings, sitting second in total points scored and a record of 2-1. He's had a light schedule so far with his opponents only amassing 3 total wins between them (with one of them being against himself) and has faced the 3rd fewest amount of points in the league but sometimes you just need things to fall your way. It's a little bit odd when you look at this team as he only has one player who's top ten in their respective positions, but somehow is managing a way to throw up high scoring weeks. I don't think he stays here but he's earned the nod for the week, if only so I can enjoy the fall from grace later in the year.

3) Dan

Dan sits 2-1 in the middle of a competitive division - while 3 out of the 5 members are 1-2 there is some quality riddled throughout the division with an always strong Levine team, and a Gutman team that IMO is ready to bust. Dan has three solid RBs, and is strong all around at every position. Amazingly, he has the third lowest scoring point total in the league but has grinded out a  2-1 record (when have we seen this happen before?????). He doesn't have anyone to me that looks as though they can take over a game, but Bijan has certainly shown flashes. Definite playoff contender. 

4) AJAY

Ajay has the benefit of sitting in a pretty weak division aside from Nijo. Third in points scored throughout 3 weeks is nothing to scoff at, however that comes along getting dunked on for almost 300 points through the same time period. Ajay looks mediocre across the board but Connor has proved to be a reliable starter with his other options at WR/RB all having the ability to blow up again and drop 25+. The good news is that Ajay has already played Levine and Dan, the bad news is he lost to both of them.  I see some good breaks coming his way and think he sneaks into the playoffs. 

5) Esco
Adam #1 settles in at #5 for the first power rankings of the year, you can't deny the league's top scorer sitting at a 2-1 record unfortunately. While I don't think you can continue to rely on three Dolphins players consistently, you've set yourself up nicely from an 0-1 start to take control of your playoff destiny. If Mostert keeps getting 6+ YPC and the goalline work, that $4 pick looks beautiful. Unfortunately the rest of your roster doesn't look like it benefited from the extra auction dollars but you do have a little bit of depth and if Saquon comes back healthy, you have the team for a good playoff push.

6) Gutman

Adam #3 settles in at #6 for the first power rankings of the year. Now hear me out, does Gutman have the least points scored in the league - yes. Is Gutman 1-2 in possibly the strongest division - yes. Did Gutman start the season 0-2 - yes (what are the stats on 0-2 starts making playoffs I know we have this somewhere). But when I look at his roster it is capable of putting up points with almost every player in the top 15  positionally this year in points scored. He's going to need an amazing streak of wins, and now that I'm looking at the division he's going to need to catch up quickly to Zball and Dan, but sometimes you just gotta believe. 

The "just missed":

7) Levine

8)Bennett

9)Alan

10)AGD

The "Never had a shots":

11) Lutz

12) Kevin

The "Bernards":

13) Bernard

FMOTW:

Zball vs Levine

Huge Matchup between Zball and Levine - Zball can all but cement his playoff spot with a win here going 4-0 and Levine's season could easily be sunk starting 1-3 (possibly his worst start to a season ever????? Does Levine even read this?????  Miss you buddy, fuck your laptop) Lets get right into the matchups:

QB Mahomes (ZBall) vs Wilson (Levine):

Not even worth discussing. Both have juicy matchups, but you gotta give the nod to Mahomes even though I LOVE all the Wilson memes:

Yuge Advantage: ZBALL

RBs Kamara, Breece (Zball) vs Williams, Mattison (Levine)

On paper looks like a landslide, Kamara and Breece I have at 14 and 11 due to Kamara rust and matchups (Jets gonna get smoked and throw all day), while i have Williams and Mattison at 6 and 12. To me it all really depends on the game script here for Williams - if the Broncos can keep it close and they feed him, I'm going to give a slight advantage here to Levine.

Slight Advantage: Levine

WRs  Allen, Moore (Zball) vs Olave, Evans (Levine)

Really close matchup here. I like Allen more than Evans this week but on the other hand i like Olave over Moore. I think it boils down to liking Allen only slightly more than Evans, but liking Olave A LOT more than moore. 

Advantage: Levine

TE Kelce vs Andrews:

Two of the league's premier tight ends going head to head. While there would normally be a huge advantage here against every other team, I think the advantage here is minimal. Going with taytays boo this week

Slight Advantage: Zball

Flex Thomas (Zball) vs Lockett (Levine)

Lockett could be most teams WR1 and I seem him absolutely getting volume and yards this week against the shitty Giants. Saints vs Buccs this week just looks like a grindy divisional game thats gonna suck, so I don't see Thomas gettin volume here with Olave getting most of the targets.

Advantage: Levine

Defense 49ers vs Saints

Defense is dumb advantage no one.

Marco's Pick of the week:

Levine to save his season here with a nailbiter. He'll be down 8 with MNF left and Lockett will secure his win, and breathe life into his season.

Thanks for the collab on this dan. couldn't have done it without you.