Rivalry Week 2020

 Two posts in one week? It's that time of year.

This one will be quick, as I'm sure you're all deep into draft research and our defending champ is realizing that DeAndre Hopkins is on the Cardinals and there's something called a Clyde Edwards-Helaire. 

Here are the Rivalry Week 2020 matchups, ranked in order of the average Rivalry Points from each team:

1. (tie) Esco vs. Weissbard - 14.0 points - The Halloween Prank Bowl III aka The Paternity Leave Bowl
2. (tie) Bennett vs. Levine - 14.0 points - The Florida Man Bowl II
3. (tie) AGD vs. Billy - 14.0 points - The Where's Marshall? Bowl
4. (tie) Ajay vs. Barnard - 14.0 points - The Madden Runner-Up Bowl
5. Gutman vs. Marco - 13.5 points - The Dad Bowl III aka The Father of Two Bowl
6. Alan vs. Zacherman - 12.5 points - The Chipotle Burrito Bowl
7. Nick vs. Kumpf - 9.5 points - The Tank Bowl

As usual, most of the Rivalries are between people who consider each other rivals, but we had some movement this year with the reintroduction of Nick and the AGD reunion, so I'm surprised to see so much alignment. And Nick, I guarantee that I'll be able to improve my playoff situation by tanking against you this year, but I'll be prohibited from doing so.

Here is the raw data:

Each row is that team's submission, with the rankings multiplied by 10 to give more weight to the higher rated matchups. Looking closer at the individual team numbers, here is the breakdown per team, normalized to the actual ranking they were given and removing the 1 point placeholder for ranking yourself:

1. Barnard - 10.23 (10.46 )
2. Weissbard - 9.38 (9.92)
3. Bennett - 9.31 (8.46)
4. Kumpf - 8.69 (8.38)
5. Gutman - 8.31 (7.46)
6. Alan - 8.23 (6.92)
7. Marco - 8.08 (8.62)
8. Billy - 8.00 (7.31 as BAM)
9. (tie) AGD - 7.62 (8.08 for Belfer, 6.38 for Reap)
10. (tie) Esco - 7.62 (8.23)
11. Levine - 7.54 (6.69)
12. Ajay - 7.38 (8.46)
13. Nick - 6.62 (N/A)
14. Zacherman - 5.00 (6.46)

Random takeaways:

• Barnard has been in "first" place all three years of this process, making him by far the most appealing rival.
• Weissbard has been in "second" place all three years, barely edging third all three times.
• The league gives more "credit" for AGD to Belfer, who's average Rivalry Points are closer to where AGD ended up in their first year back together.
• Ajay had the largest fall this year, from 4th to 12th, and I'm not really sure why.
• People are fucking terrified of Zacherman, who got the lowest score ever by a full 1.23 points.

Schedule will be updated on ESPN prior to the draft thanks to our friends at League Lobster, who still have Alan's Christmas Card in their chat history.

2020 Season Preview

 After an offseason like no other, and heading into our first virtual draft, it's time to bring some sense of normalcy back to this league. The blog is back baby! We are a week away from the draft, and less than two weeks away from NFL kickoff, so as we move into to FALAFEL Season 12, let's take a look at where each team stands from a historical perspective. As usual, this post can be used by Gutman, AGD, and Esco for the Division Draft, but it's also useful to make other people feel bad about themselves.

FALAFEL Team Power Rankings

All historical data has been updated on the sidebar, and for those who only care about winzzz, here are some fun facts:

• There is a weird phenomenon where the teams that have yet to win a Stevens Bowl have the best overall records of active teams:
• Zacherman, Nick, Marco, myself, and Barnard all have top 7 overall win percentages yet no Chef's Coats.
• The bottom 7 active teams combine to have 8 Chef's Coats.
• The AGD reunion has pushed them to the top overall record, and along Levine, a clear top two spot in FALAFEL history (more on that below).
• The only team in the bottom 7 without a Chef's Coat is Bennett, which also feels right.
• Sample sizes are getting pretty large here. Zacherman is the first to hit 80 total wins, which means we are likely three years away from our first Centurion.
• Team shifts haven't been fun to everyone, as one 4-9 season from Billy dropped his solo efforts from 6th to 14th #BringBackMarshall.
• If we averaged the AGD solo seasons and included them with their combined seasons, they would be even with Zacherman overall.

As always, the purpose of this post is not to look at records alone. The PAA (Points Above Average) updated through 2019 is below:

Some thoughts:

• Levine's consistency is borderline boring, but is still impressive considering how far ahead of the pack he is.
• From a predictive standpoint, four of the top five in PAA also scored in the top five last year, with Gutman as the only party crasher.
• Billy and Alan are below the Long Line, which is never a great sign, though their three Chef's Coats would say otherwise.
• Bruno's one season remains twice as bad as Levine's six combined seasons have been good.

Here are my Division Draft tiers:

1. Levine
2. AGD (Captain), Joseph
3. Esco (Captain), Kumpf, Zacherman, Marco
4. Weissbard, Gutman (Captain), Ajay, Barnard
5. Bennett, Billy, Alan

Finally, here are the overall points for those who are interested:

Gambling Corner - Week of 7/27

NBA Bets

Jazz (+2) vs. Pelicans - Win

Clippers (+5) vs. Lakers - Win

Nets (+7) vs. Magic

Wizards (+7) vs. Suns

Celtics (+4.5) vs. Bucks

Last Week: 0-0

MLB Bets

A's (-114) vs. Angels - Win

Nationals (-125) vs. Blue Jays - Loss

Pirates (+150) vs. Brewers - Loss

Giants (+125) vs. Padres - Loss

Giants (+150) vs. Padres - Win

Tigers (+118) vs. Royals - Loss

Mariners (+180) at Angels - Win

Giants (+150) vs. Padres - Loss

Twins (+105) vs. Indians

Mariners (+170) vs. A's

Last Week: 0-2

2020 Record: 3-7 (-2.82 units)

Historical Win Percentage: 46.12% (-12.33 units)

MLS Spread Bets

Seattle (+0.5) vs. LAFC - Loss

FC Cincinnati (+0.5, +1) vs. Portland - Win

Philadelphia (+0.5) vs. Sporting KC - Win

Orlando City (+0.5, +1)

Last Week: 4.5-4-1.5

2020 Record: 14-10-3 (+2.67 units)

Historical Win Percentage: 53.03% (+0.34 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 0-0

2020 Record: 1-4 (-2.49 units)

Historical Win Percentage: 45.00% (-0.75 units)

Gambling Corner - Week of 7/20

EPL Spread Bets

Newcastle (+0.5) at Brighton - Win

Everton (Pick, +0.5) at Sheffield - Win

Crystal Palace (+1) vs. Wolves - Loss

Aston Villa (+0.5) at Arsenal - Win

Crystal Palace (+1) vs. Tottenham - Win

Leicester City (Pick, +0.5) vs. Manchester United - Loss, Loss

Last Week: 3-4
2019-20 Record: 63.5-56.5-18 (-3.93 units)
Updated Historical Win Percentage: 52.48% (-8.39 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 0-0
2019-20 Record: 28-24 (-1.27 units)
Updated Historical Win Percentage: 48.59% (-11.32 units)

MLS Spread Bets

Inter Miami (Pick, +0.5) vs. NYCFC - Loss

Atlanta (Pick) vs. Columbus - Loss

Montreal (Pick, +0.5) vs. DC United - Win

Real Salt Lake (Pick, +0.5) vs. Sporting KC - Loss

FC Cincinnati (+0.5, +1) vs. NY Red Bulls - Win

Colorado (Pick, +0.5) vs. Minnesota - (Push, Win)

LA Galaxy (Pick) vs. Houston - Push

Montreal (+0.5) vs. Orlando City - Loss

Philadelphia (Pick) vs. New England - Win

Vancouver (+1, +1.5) vs. Sporting KC - Win, Win

Last Week: 4-1-1
2019-20 Record: 12-8-3 (+2.04 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 53.03% (+0.34 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets

Last Week: 0-1
2019-20 Record: 1-2 (-1.49 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 45.00% (-0.75 units)

MLB Bets

Mets (+103) vs. Braves - Loss

A's (-133) vs. Angels - Loss
2020 Record: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.12% (-12.33 units)

Gambling Corner - Week of 7/13

EPL Spread Bets

Newcastle (+0.5, +1) vs. Tottenham - Loss

Burnley (+0.5) vs. Wolves - Win

Liverpool (-0.5) at Arsenal - Loss

Crystal Palace (+1.5) vs. Manchester United - Loss

Watford (Pick, +0.5) at West Ham - Loss

Burnley (-0.5, Pick) at Norwich - Win, Win

Southampton (Pick, +0.5) vs. Bournemouth - Win, Win

Last Week: 2.5-4-1.5
2019-20 Record: 59.5-54.5-18 (-5.75 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 52.73% (-4.46 units)

EPL Moneyline Bets

Leicester (Even) vs. Sheffield - Win

Leicester (+215) at Tottenham - Loss

Last Week: 0-0
2019-20 Record: 28-24 (-1.27 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 46.40% (-10.06 units)

MLS Spread Bets
DC United (+0.5) vs. Toronto FC - Win

Orlando City (+0.5) vs. NYCFC - Win

Vancouver (+0.5) vs. San Jose - Loss

Columbus (Pick) vs. NY Red Bulls - Win

DC United (Pick, +0.5) vs. New England - Push, Win

Real Salt Lake (Pick, +0.5) vs. Minnesota - Push, Win

Last Week: 0-2
2019-20 Record: 7-4-2 (+2.16 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 53.03% (+0.34 units)

MLS Moneyline Bets
LA Galaxy (+155) vs. Portland - Loss
Last Week: 0-0
2019-20 Record: 1-2 (-1.49 units)
Historical Win Percentage: 45.00% (-0.75 units)