Guest Blog: Shot Spot Prediction

 (Editor's Note: Today's guest blog is from Mr. First-or-Last Mike Honcho himself, Weissbard.)

A few weeks ago, shot spot seemed like a guarantee for me. A few triumphant wins later and suddenly there's 4 potential shot spotters in play with 3 games left (kumpf, marco, and gutman technically have the same record as Billy but his points scored is so putrid I'm leaving the 3 of them out and only including Billy as the 4-7 team). I'm in the most precarious position, but stranger things have happened (like me having a chef's hat but consistently being a top 3 division draft pick. Maybe you're all just haters)

Potential Shot Spotters:

Weissbard

The current favorite and potential to be the first person in FALAFEL history to repeat as shot spot. 2nd lowest points scored isn't great and I probably have the most difficult schedule remaining with Marco fighting for this playoff life, Alan holding onto his playoff life, and Ajay looking for the bye. Realistically, I need to win 2 of 3 remaining games because even if Barnard or Levine drops a game, my points scored is very, very bad. Maybe historically bad (though Billy is worse and we'll get to that). The jets on a bye means another week of playing McLaughlin (enter a sarah mclachlan sad song joke here) vs Marco and with a loss to Ajay pretty much guaranteed (gg Ajay grats on the playoffs) things aren't looking good for me.

Billy

My best shot at avoiding the shot spot is Billy to lose out. Realistically, the man who skips his wife's birthday every year for the draft will be doing the shots regardless because he's there for a good time. But it would be nice to have it mandated so I can skip out on it. Billy's worst in the league in points scored and 6th in points against including wins with 81 points and 70 points. He plays a hot AGD (we've been calling them this for so long a re-watch of the name origins is well worth it. Also I grabbed dinner with them last week and can confirm they live next door and the baby monitors work in each other's living rooms so they can hang while the babies sleep), and then a struggling Levine and Barndog. For some reason, Levine feels dangerous (in fantasy, not IRL), and barnard seems like an easy win, but Levine is bottom of the barrel for points and Barnard is 7th. I wouldn't be surprised if Billy lost all 3 games but expect my team to do the same (grats again on #1 seed Ajay gg)

Levine

SRL (are those just Steve's initials? Is that a worse team name than "ajay" or "ajayajay") is only 1 game ahead of me for last place and shockingly only 87 points ahead of me in points scored. My team has only scored more than 87 points 3 times this season so that's a pretty insurmountable gap to make up, but the way my season has been going even being in the same realm as my points wise means you're not doing great. Levine has huge shot spot implications the next 2 weeks with games vs Barnard and Billy and then a season finale vs BMO where Mejia will forego any new father duties to insult Levine for the week/maybe golf with him. 1 win should be enough to keep him safe though and he should at least get that.

Barndogs

Lots of hype in mainstream media with Putin Esco pumping up his popularity only for everyone to realize he's only a game ahead of me. A lot can happen in 3 weeks but I think everyone can agree seeing these standings when sorted by points scored is hilarious. "Ok 2nd place is 1st in points scored that sounds about right. 3rd is 4th, seeing a pattern here for the most pa- wtf who is that in 12th place?"

Having the most points against you will do that and I'm sure if Barnard's gambling losses write offs weren't distracting him, he'd be much saltier than usual. A remaining schedule of Levine, Esco, and Billy, should result in 2 wins. But I'm assuming Levine will drop 175 on him, Esco will drop 65 on him as his team scores 64.7, and then Billy and Barnard will tie. Not at halftime though (inside joke, you had to be there to get it)

Final predictions:

Last place - Weissbard

2nd to last but still doing shots anyway - Billy

(Ed: I agree with almost all of this, other than Gutman not being at risk of back to back shot spots himself.)

Trade Grades 9 & 10

 This one was a little delayed because I falsely assumed some more dominos would fall following Esco's statement of intent. However the rest of the contenders stood pat, so I'm left with two trades that I will grade collectively as one.

Trade Grades 9 & 10
Esco receives Josh Allen, Isaiah Pacheco, and Mike Evans
Gutman receives Rico Dowdle and Courtland Sutton
Kumpf receives C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins

While not exactly a three team trade, Esco's two deals are related and would be weird to grade on their own. 

From Esco's perspective, the goal is clear: Win the Stevens Bowl. His roster was pretty set already, other than a hole at QB, and now he has the best starting lineup in the league. His only potential issue is injuries. Pacheco is no sure thing to return to form, Evans pulled a hamstring while I typed this sentence, and while Josh Allen seems to be superhuman, he takes a lot of hits. Add that to Kittle's issues and historical problems with Chase and Watson, and Esco is now one or two ankle turns away from collapse. It was a clear move to make on his part, but it's not without risk. Bonus points here from boxing Nick out of a three-way trade.

Gutman was in no man's land before this trade, and remains there afterwards. His best path to the playoffs is probably the NiJo Spot? So trading upside pieces in Evans and Pacheco for boring starters wasn't probably the best approach, but he went from very unlikely to make the playoffs to... very unlikely to make the playoffs. No harm no foul I guess?

My season has been lost for a few weeks now (I was 3-0! I miss September). Josh was really my only trade piece and I think I did well to get Nico with the upside potential of a Stroud connection. I doubt it makes much of a difference either way, and honestly scooping up Richardson was probably the more impactful move I made last week, but my roster is better than it was a week ago.

From a Power Rankings perspective, this trade moves Esco further into 1st place, drops Gutman from 12th to 14th, and keeps me at 10th.

Grades:
Esco: B+
Gutman: D
Kumpf: B

Week 11 Power Rankings/Trade Deadline Preview

 It's time for my favorite (only) post of the year. Before I get to the meat of the post, I'll start with a quick look at the playoff picture:

1. Nick - BMO Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record, Bye
2. BMO - Wild Card #1, Bye
3. Esco - Esco Division Champ
4. Ajay - Ajay Division Champ
5. Alan - Wild Card #2
6. AGD - NiJo Spot

So far nothing crazy going on, other than the top 3 teams from last year once again on track to make the playoffs, which I don't believe has happened before. Division leaders are all up at least 2 games on the next team out of the playoffs, so the real drama is for the second Wild Card and NiJo spot. AGD and Z are a game back on Alan for Wild Card 2, and AGD has a lead of 50 or less over Marco, me, and Alan, with Z and Barnard (?!) lurking behind. Gutman and Levine are by no means eliminated but they have a lot of ground to gain. Billy is a super long shot as he will lose pretty much any points scored tiebreaker, and somehow Weissbard has already been eliminated from everything but NiJo Spot. Fun year.

Week 11 Power Rankings

1. Esco
   Biggest Strength: Depth. Esco's bench would outscore some teams' starters most weeks. Nothing flashy, but he's been able to weather Nico's IR stint and would be equally set up to handle another injury at one of the flex positions.
   Biggest Weakness: QB. Not sure if you've heard, but Esco is in the market for a QB.
   
   
2. AGD
   Biggest Strength: Depth. Similar to Esco, but I actually like AGD's depth more. When at full strength, they have Tyrone Tracy and Bucky Irving on their bench, and they would start for almost every other team.
   Biggest Weakness: QB. Getting Baker started to address the problem, but packaging him with one of your flex players for a stud QB would push you into the top spot.
3. 
   Zacherman
   Biggest Strength: Starters. Outside the teams above him, Z has the most complete starting lineup. A lot of reliance on the Chiefs and white receivers, but if they stay healthy he's competitive every week.
   Biggest Weakness: Depth. If he loses any of his starters, Z will drop off precipitously. Taysom is the only one on his bench likely to be start-worthy in the playoffs.
4. Nick
   Biggest Strength: QB. I'm a noted Brock hater, but he's QB8 so far and when Love his healthy he's on Nicks' bench. Given the QB needs elsewhere, this is a trade that has to happen.
   Biggest Weakness: Flex. Jaylen Warren and ETN aren't the worst options, but they aren't great, and choosing between them every week is a pain. Packaging one of them for a legit Flex option seems likely.
   
   
5. BMO
   Biggest Strength: WR. When everyone is healthy, they have Jeudy and Diontae on their bench. That's not splashy, but it's depth some others (me) would kill for.
   Biggest Weakness: TE. Jonnu Smith and Tyler Conklin are waiver worthy. 
   
   
6. Marco
   Biggest Strength: Studs. So far, Marco has QB6, RB5, WR3, and WR5, and that doesn't even include Jonathan Taylor. No one else can match that ceiling.
   Biggest Weakness: RB Depth. He has none of his handcuffs, and his only backup RB is a rookie who has been on IR all year. Gibbs and JT aren't the picture of health, and if either goes down, so does Marco.
   
   
7. Ajay
   Biggest Strength: RB. Ajay is like the anti-Marco. Outside of Burrow and shockingly Drake London, his team is built around an RB stable that can withstand a couple of injuries.
   Biggest Weakness: TE. I can admit I was wrong about LaPorta being the steal of the draft. If Ajay wants to compete for an apron, he needs to upgrade that spot.
   
   
8. Alan
   Biggest Strength: TE.  Engram is set up for success the rest of the year, and Tucker Kraft is having a dream season. No reason to hold both of them with the TE needs elsewhere in the league.
   Biggest Weakness: QB. Alan has lucked into a top 5 seed, but he is prime for regression thanks to Dak's injury, Hunt's pending benching, and a point total that won't win many tiebreakers. He needs upside at QB, something that Darnold and Dimes don't exactly overflow with.
   
   
9. Barnard
   Biggest Strength: Bench. Not sure how Barnard has been hanging around the periphery of the NiJo spot with that roster, but his resilience is commendable. Carrying three QBs continues to be weird, but he has a lot of options every week, which not everyone can say.
   Biggest Weakness: Upside. To make a NiJo run, a team typically needs a couple studs to just go off. There's really none of that for Barnard, outside of some big Goff-ARSB game possibilities. I don't know if there's a way to get that, but maybe Hock pops?
10. Kumpf
    Biggest Strength: RB. I'm the only team with two top 10 RBs and their handcuffs. I tell myself that every night before bed.
    Biggest Weakness: WR. My team is a no doubt playoff team at QB, RB, and TE. But the black hole left by losing Godwin, Rashee, and Kirk means I'm going to struggle to get double digits from any WR for the rest of the season.
    
    
11. Levine
    Biggest Strength: Current Roster. Kyler/KW3/Chase Brown/DK/Waddle/Tillman/Henry is a playoff contender for sure. It's a shame for Levine it took too long for that to materialize. I wouldn't want to face this team in the playoffs if he makes it that far.
    Biggest Weakness: Studs. Similar to Barnard, Levine needs some upside to make a move in the NiJo race. If Seattle goes on a run then maybe he's in decent shape, but he can potentially trade some of that depth to get a better option at one of the flex spots.
    
    
12. Gutman
    Biggest Strength: Tradeable QB. I had Gut as my preseason favorite for a reason, and I still like his team. Losing Pacheco, BRob, and Evans was tough but they're all on their way back. His best course is probably trading Jalen to one of the QB-needy teams at the top of this list, which will hurt(s) but can maybe upgrade his team elsewhere.
    Biggest Weakness: RB. Even with a healthy BRob and Pacheco, this team needs help at RB. 
    
    
13. Billy
    Biggest Strength: Studs. What else did you expect? JJ and CMC would help any other team in this league.
    Biggest Weakness: Everything Else. I don't know that this team is salvageable even if you got massive returns for your two studs.
    
    
14. Weissbard
    Biggest Strength: Rookie Receivers. I know Weiss doesn't have Nabers, but MHJ, Worthy, Pearsall, and Coleman is a nice core for 2027.
    Biggest Weakness: Drafting. I don't really know what this team was set up to do this season, but it certainly wasn't winning games. 

On to the main event!

Mock Trade Madness

Mock Trade 1

Esco receives Jalen Hurts, Brian Robinson Jr., and Deebo Samuel
Gutman receives C.J. Stroud, Rico Dowdle, and Nico Collins

Some banged up players involved here, and Gutman actually gets worse at RB, but the Texans connection is the type of upside that could lead to a miracle run. For Esco, this balances out his roster for a potential back-to-back Stevens Bowl run.

Mock Trade 2

AGD receives Josh Allen and Jordan Addison

Kumpf receives Baker Mayfield and Zay Flowers

This filles AGD's only remaining gap with only a small downgrade in depth, while it gives me a lifeline at receiver. Not the flashiest but seems like a win-win.

Mock Trade 3

Barnard receives Josh Jacobs, Ladd McConkey, and Taysom Hill

Zacherman receives Najee Harris, Tanks Bigsby, and Davante Adams

Kind of a weird one here between teams that have almost certainly never traded with each other. Z would sacrifice some RB upside to get depth and Davante, while Barnard gets to reunite his 2021 team and gets a white receiver. Who says no?

Mock Trade 4

Alan receives Jordan Love

Nick receives Jameson Williams

I tried going bigger here, but the uncertainty around Kareem Hunt's role and CeeDee Lamb's offense kept it small. This is more roster balancing for both teams, but gives Alan some upside at QB, and gives Nick some upside depth at WR.

Mock Trade 5

BMO receives Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride

Weissbard receives Tyreek Hill and Jonnu Smith

A weird Fins/Card WR/TE swap, but I think it helps both teams. Tyreek has been pretty frustrating to own this year, but he has the type of upside that could save Weissbard's season. He can't make it worse anyway. For BMO, they fill their TE gap while still keeping some excitement at WR. This trade would make BMO a favorite to repeat IMO.

Mock Trade 6

Levine receives Jonathan Taylor, Demario Douglas, and Adam Thielen

Marco receives Chuba Hubbard, Chase Brown, and Xavier Tillman

The big names may be lacking here outside of JT, but Marco is perilously thin at RB so this helps him out there, while also bolstering his WR corps. Levine gets some upside in JT without losing too much of his depth.

Mock Trade 7

Ajay receives Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason

Billy receives J.K. Dobbins and Rhamondre Stevenson

This trade depends on what Billy's goals are. If he wants to make a run at the playoffs, he should probably keep CMC and pray that one of his other RBs becomes startable. If he wants to avoid Shot Spot, this helps raise his floor. Actually, we know Billy is taking the shots anyway so maybe this was doomed from the start. Regardless, Ajay's team with CMC becomes a contender.

Trade Grades 7 & 8

 Not a fan of grading my own trades, but no one else has stepped up and the Trade Deadline preview is coming in a couple of days, so here we go.

Trade 7
Kumpf receives Jordan Addison
Zacherman receives Ray Davis

Z had WRs to spare, and after losing Rashee Rice, Chris Godwin and even Christian fucking Kirk, I have next to nothing in the receiver department. That arguably has not changed after this trade, but Addison at least gives me an option that's better than what's on the waiver wire. As for Z, Davis increases his upside and becomes an immediate top 5 RB if James Cook goes down. He's also a potential trade piece for handcuff purposes but good luck starting that conversation with Alan. Regardless, both teams got what they wanted from this deal, even if it's unlikely to have any effect on the outcome of the season.

Grades:
Kumpf: B-
Zacherman: B+

Trade Grade 8
AGD receives Diontae Johnson and Jonnu Smith
BMO receives Baker Mayfield and Cole Kmet

Another relatively anonymous trade, though both of these teams have big dreams this year, so it very well may have an impact.

I essentially value Jonnu and Kmet the same, and they're both backup-worthy TEs. AGD only needed a Bowers bye week replacement and I imagine will be dropping Kmet shortly. BMO is starting Jonnu, which is not great.

So the trade is basically Diontae for Baker. I love both of these guys, but Baker was never going to see the lineup with Lamar there for BMO, while Diontae is in a weird career purgatory and is now fighting for targets in a run-first offense. Flex and TE were BMO's biggest holes before the trade, and they remain that way while Higgins is out, but getting Diontae essentially for free isn't bad. AGD's team is extremely solid from top to bottom, and upgrading from Stafford/Nix to Baker only solidifies that. I can't really argue with anything from either side here.

Grades:
AGD: A
BMO: A-

Trade Grade 6

 Marco's at 83% of this league's trades so far this season, and he's just about at the point where he starts actively making his team worse because he's impatient. Did it start with this move?

Trade Grade 6
Marco receives Demario Douglas and Mark Andrews
Nick receives Travis Etienne Jr. and Tyler Lockett

This trade looks a lot more impactful based on draft dollars than it does based on actual 2024 value. Douglas shouldn't touch anyone's starting lineup, so I'm assuming he was a throw in. From Marco's perspective, he swapped ETN and Lockett (both mid/low value flex options) for Andrews, a second tight end. This is a downgrade at Flex, but might be an upgrade over Kincaid at TE. Good luck picking between those guys every week, or starting both of them as it appears you'll be doing until Brooks is healthy.

On Nick's side, he has some wiggle room based on his fast start. Cade Otton has inexplicably become at top 5 TE, so Andrews was expendable. I don't like ETN, and Lockett will lose most/all of his value when DK comes back, but your entire bench makes for a pretty solid Flex rotation, and you have depth almost everywhere. That's a move that a someone with their eyes on a chef coat makes.

Grade:
Marco: C
Nick: A-

Esco’s Playoff Predictions

(Editor's Note: As the title indicates, this post was sent by Esco, unprompted.)

Halfway through the season, I think we are all due for a distraction during one of the worst media weeks of the year. Tony knows what I’m talking about, right Bruno?

Prediction: Harris popular vote, Harris electoral college, republican senate, democratic house, election not confirmed until 3+ days after voting day. Barnard throw a parlay on for me

This has been an unusual year where a few awful teams have juiced the records of the top teams and created a standings separation early in the year. However, point scoring is still extremely close and with some regression to the mean on both sides of the spectrum (yay Weissbard!), I’m guessing all but the 1 seed will likely come down to the last week of the regular season.

Roster Optimization Time

Nick (8-1, 1 Seed, 3rd in Pts Scored

Bennett (7-2, 2 Seed, 4th in Pts Scored)

Escalante (6-3, 3 Seed, 1st in Pts Scored)

With the extra week in the fantasy regular season and the scoring so close, no one is guaranteed a spot in the post season, but Nick, Bennett and myself have clearly separated so far in both consistency and scoring. Nearly all of our combined 6 losses have come at a close margin or to each other.

At this point, each of these teams could really use one final piece for the stretch run (Nick: upgrade at Flex, BMO: TE upgrade, Esco: QB upgrade) and finding a willing trade partner will be key to remaining in contention for a bye. All the head to head matchups have already occurred so any separation in the standing will have to come from points scored which will get tricky as we reach the heart of the bye weeks.

Prediction: Nick with the 1 seed, Bennett with the 2, Esco lands in 4th with a difficult schedule down the stretch

Inconsistent But Dangerous

Ajay (6-3, 4 Seed, 5th in Pts Scored)

Alan (6-3, 5 Seed, 8th in Pts Scored)

AGD (5-4, Nijo Spot, 3rd in Pts Scored)

I was honestly shocked to see AGD with 3rd most points and a lead over Kumpf and Marco for the Nijo spot as I don’t recall them dominating over the course of the season. However, all 3 of these teams have had big weeks and some favorable matchups, there are no pretenders here.

Ajay is the closest to the next tier but a slow start to the year keeps him here for now. However, I see him primed for a strong close to the year and to comfortably make the playoffs. AGD need to figure out their roster management, having good players on your bench becomes a negative when you can’t easily pick your best roster week in and week out (see Levine, Steve). It’s not easy to manage a roster with two owners, let alone coordinate trades but I think that is their best path forward before the deadline.

Alan has gotten absurdly lucky (scoring 58 pts in a win over Billy) but you don’t bet against a man with 3 championships. I already mentioned regression to the mean, here is a prime candidate, you can’t expect that luck to continue. He’s in a difficult position with points scored and needs every W to make the playoffs and I see him coming up just short. Also how do you trade your own team’s best WR for a RB who won’t help you in the playoffs??

Prediction: Ajay gets the 3 seed, AGD with the 5, Alan just misses the playoffs

Nijo or Bust

Zacherman (5-4, 9th in Pts Scored, 71 points back)

Kumpf (4-5, 6th in Pts Scored, 17 points back)

Marco (4-5, 7th in Pts Scored, 18 points back)

Gutman (4-5, 10th in Pts Scored, 78 points back)

The most fun group to watch from the sidelines. A lot of chaotic energy here and my least confident prediction, each of these teams could go on a run.

Marco leveraged his IR spots to perfection and dumped Chubb at the perfect time along with some other nice moves to put him in a very strong position for Nijo spot. However, it’s going to be hard to do the same with Broojs as the league is likely a bit gun-shy at this point dealing with Marco. If anyone can do it, it’s our trade king.

Kumpf had one monster week to skew his scoring a bit and his lineup is weighted heavily towards stars with an ugly bench so the bye weeks will not be fun. Plus, he never responded to my trade request text so he gets docked points for that (Ed: I never received a trade request). Unless he shakes it up significantly, I don’t see it coming together for the stretch run.

I think Gutman would be best served by flipping Pacheco for some short term help, but when I tried to trade with him this weekend he said he was busy at the water park so I’m concerned about his team’s dedication.

Like last year, Z lives or dies with Mahomes and Kelce. Unfortunately for him, DeAndre Hopkins is probably the best WR Mahomes has played with in recent memory and last night looked fantastic. Nothing awful in the starting lineup but the bench is very thin so a week where Josh Jacobs is on bye leads to a Zeke start. Yikes.

Prediction: Marco edges Kumpf for the Nijo spot based on one final trade, Gutman fades in the stretch run, Z is limited by the Chiefs resting their stars once they clinch the top seed

Fireball Cinnamon Whisky. Tastes like Heaven, Burns like Hell.

Our shot takers, some willingly (Billy), some unwillingly (Weissbard, Barnard), some in absentia (Levine) make up the motley crew at the bottom of the list. Injuries, bad luck and bad drafting are the root cause of everyone’s position here. Honestly the trades haven’t been bad but they should have done more and done them sooner (how happy would Billy be if he offloaded CMC early in the year for a RB2).

Prediction: CMC never makes it back and Weissbard gets just enough Ws to send Billy to shot spot. The Barndogs go on a run and get frisky enough for everyone to pay attention for their inevitable collapse in the last weeks of the regular season. Levine likely will play spoiler multiple times to playoff contenders but is just too far back in the standings / scoring to make the cut.

Billy (3-6, 14th in Pts Scored, 182 points back)

Barnard (2-7, 11th in Points Scored, 80 points back)

Levine (2-7, 12th in Points Scored, 139 points back)

Weissbard (1-8, 13th in Points Scored, 168 points back)