Trade Grade 6

 Marco's at 83% of this league's trades so far this season, and he's just about at the point where he starts actively making his team worse because he's impatient. Did it start with this move?

Trade Grade 6
Marco receives Demario Douglas and Mark Andrews
Nick receives Travis Etienne Jr. and Tyler Lockett

This trade looks a lot more impactful based on draft dollars than it does based on actual 2024 value. Douglas shouldn't touch anyone's starting lineup, so I'm assuming he was a throw in. From Marco's perspective, he swapped ETN and Lockett (both mid/low value flex options) for Andrews, a second tight end. This is a downgrade at Flex, but might be an upgrade over Kincaid at TE. Good luck picking between those guys every week, or starting both of them as it appears you'll be doing until Brooks is healthy.

On Nick's side, he has some wiggle room based on his fast start. Cade Otton has inexplicably become at top 5 TE, so Andrews was expendable. I don't like ETN, and Lockett will lose most/all of his value when DK comes back, but your entire bench makes for a pretty solid Flex rotation, and you have depth almost everywhere. That's a move that a someone with their eyes on a chef coat makes.

Grade:
Marco: C
Nick: A-

Esco’s Playoff Predictions

(Editor's Note: As the title indicates, this post was sent by Esco, unprompted.)

Halfway through the season, I think we are all due for a distraction during one of the worst media weeks of the year. Tony knows what I’m talking about, right Bruno?

Prediction: Harris popular vote, Harris electoral college, republican senate, democratic house, election not confirmed until 3+ days after voting day. Barnard throw a parlay on for me

This has been an unusual year where a few awful teams have juiced the records of the top teams and created a standings separation early in the year. However, point scoring is still extremely close and with some regression to the mean on both sides of the spectrum (yay Weissbard!), I’m guessing all but the 1 seed will likely come down to the last week of the regular season.

Roster Optimization Time

Nick (8-1, 1 Seed, 3rd in Pts Scored

Bennett (7-2, 2 Seed, 4th in Pts Scored)

Escalante (6-3, 3 Seed, 1st in Pts Scored)

With the extra week in the fantasy regular season and the scoring so close, no one is guaranteed a spot in the post season, but Nick, Bennett and myself have clearly separated so far in both consistency and scoring. Nearly all of our combined 6 losses have come at a close margin or to each other.

At this point, each of these teams could really use one final piece for the stretch run (Nick: upgrade at Flex, BMO: TE upgrade, Esco: QB upgrade) and finding a willing trade partner will be key to remaining in contention for a bye. All the head to head matchups have already occurred so any separation in the standing will have to come from points scored which will get tricky as we reach the heart of the bye weeks.

Prediction: Nick with the 1 seed, Bennett with the 2, Esco lands in 4th with a difficult schedule down the stretch

Inconsistent But Dangerous

Ajay (6-3, 4 Seed, 5th in Pts Scored)

Alan (6-3, 5 Seed, 8th in Pts Scored)

AGD (5-4, Nijo Spot, 3rd in Pts Scored)

I was honestly shocked to see AGD with 3rd most points and a lead over Kumpf and Marco for the Nijo spot as I don’t recall them dominating over the course of the season. However, all 3 of these teams have had big weeks and some favorable matchups, there are no pretenders here.

Ajay is the closest to the next tier but a slow start to the year keeps him here for now. However, I see him primed for a strong close to the year and to comfortably make the playoffs. AGD need to figure out their roster management, having good players on your bench becomes a negative when you can’t easily pick your best roster week in and week out (see Levine, Steve). It’s not easy to manage a roster with two owners, let alone coordinate trades but I think that is their best path forward before the deadline.

Alan has gotten absurdly lucky (scoring 58 pts in a win over Billy) but you don’t bet against a man with 3 championships. I already mentioned regression to the mean, here is a prime candidate, you can’t expect that luck to continue. He’s in a difficult position with points scored and needs every W to make the playoffs and I see him coming up just short. Also how do you trade your own team’s best WR for a RB who won’t help you in the playoffs??

Prediction: Ajay gets the 3 seed, AGD with the 5, Alan just misses the playoffs

Nijo or Bust

Zacherman (5-4, 9th in Pts Scored, 71 points back)

Kumpf (4-5, 6th in Pts Scored, 17 points back)

Marco (4-5, 7th in Pts Scored, 18 points back)

Gutman (4-5, 10th in Pts Scored, 78 points back)

The most fun group to watch from the sidelines. A lot of chaotic energy here and my least confident prediction, each of these teams could go on a run.

Marco leveraged his IR spots to perfection and dumped Chubb at the perfect time along with some other nice moves to put him in a very strong position for Nijo spot. However, it’s going to be hard to do the same with Broojs as the league is likely a bit gun-shy at this point dealing with Marco. If anyone can do it, it’s our trade king.

Kumpf had one monster week to skew his scoring a bit and his lineup is weighted heavily towards stars with an ugly bench so the bye weeks will not be fun. Plus, he never responded to my trade request text so he gets docked points for that (Ed: I never received a trade request). Unless he shakes it up significantly, I don’t see it coming together for the stretch run.

I think Gutman would be best served by flipping Pacheco for some short term help, but when I tried to trade with him this weekend he said he was busy at the water park so I’m concerned about his team’s dedication.

Like last year, Z lives or dies with Mahomes and Kelce. Unfortunately for him, DeAndre Hopkins is probably the best WR Mahomes has played with in recent memory and last night looked fantastic. Nothing awful in the starting lineup but the bench is very thin so a week where Josh Jacobs is on bye leads to a Zeke start. Yikes.

Prediction: Marco edges Kumpf for the Nijo spot based on one final trade, Gutman fades in the stretch run, Z is limited by the Chiefs resting their stars once they clinch the top seed

Fireball Cinnamon Whisky. Tastes like Heaven, Burns like Hell.

Our shot takers, some willingly (Billy), some unwillingly (Weissbard, Barnard), some in absentia (Levine) make up the motley crew at the bottom of the list. Injuries, bad luck and bad drafting are the root cause of everyone’s position here. Honestly the trades haven’t been bad but they should have done more and done them sooner (how happy would Billy be if he offloaded CMC early in the year for a RB2).

Prediction: CMC never makes it back and Weissbard gets just enough Ws to send Billy to shot spot. The Barndogs go on a run and get frisky enough for everyone to pay attention for their inevitable collapse in the last weeks of the regular season. Levine likely will play spoiler multiple times to playoff contenders but is just too far back in the standings / scoring to make the cut.

Billy (3-6, 14th in Pts Scored, 182 points back)

Barnard (2-7, 11th in Points Scored, 80 points back)

Levine (2-7, 12th in Points Scored, 139 points back)

Weissbard (1-8, 13th in Points Scored, 168 points back)

Trade Grades 4&5

 Another last minute trade! As usual, I will do my best to grade this based on the knowledge we had Sunday morning and not take into account BTJ's injury. There was another Marco trade too.

Trade Grade 4
Nick receives D'Andre Swift and Brian Thomas Jr.
Levine receives Kenneth Walker III and Cedric Tillman

Levine lives! At first blush I thought this was a home run for Nick. I had no idea who Tillman was, and then he obviously broke out immediately after the trade. These teams are in very different spots right now, so their goals should be different. 

Nick had a devastating RB combo, but holes at WR2 and Flex. Downgrading from KW3 to Swift hurts, but Walker is always banged up, and Nick didn't have Charbs anyway. I hate Swift, but I see the logic there. Pairing BTJ with AJB is a whole lot of upside at WR, even more so now that Kirk is out of the year and Gabe is banged up. I could see him winning the league on the backs of Henry and Walker, but he's got a higher floor now for sure.

Levine had a terrible start to the year, and is not usually one to make trades, so this one was interesting. He just needs wins at this point to stay relevant, and Walker certainly helps there. Not having Charb hurts, but I guess you gotta go big at this point (good luck trying to trade with BMO). I don't hate relying on a Waddle bounceback, and Tillman looked legit, but your team's floor got lower, which is probably the right strategy.

Lots of moving parts, but overall I liked it for both teams.

Grades:
Nick: A-
Levine: B+

Trade Grade 5
Alan receives Kareem Hunt
Marco receives Garrett Wilson

Not to be outdone, Marco got right back on the horse yesterday, flipping a waiver pickup for a top 10 WR by draft value. Things have changed since August, but this trade is no less confusing to me.

Alan's team is off to another great start, and he is well on his way to the playoffs. So he celebrated by trading for an RB that will likely be a backup in 2-3 weeks? And he downgrades his WR2 slot massively to do so? When he already has two legit RBs? I must be missing something here.

It's a little bit more straightforward for Marco. With JT back and looking good (and Jonathan Brooks looming), he could have started Hunt for another couple weeks and hoped that ETN returned to form at that point or Brooks stepped in. He needs wins now more than anything (he's 50 points back in the NiJo race), so that's probably what I would have done. But Marco has never said no to a trade opportunity. I respect the move but I think you end up regretting it, starting when Alan beats you this week.

Grades:
Alan: D
Marco: C+

Trade Grade 3

 A Saturday night trade doesn't give me a lot of time to post before the value of the trade inevitably changes, so I'm grading this as if Sunday did not happen.

Trade Grade 3
Marco receives Jonathan Taylor, Terry McLaurin, and Tre Tucker
Weissbard receives Nick Chubb, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Xavier Worthy

Despite one of the teams being 0-6, this is actually a pretty big trade. Everyone involved is at least flex-worthy at times, and we have some no doubt starters involved at RB and WR. It was obvious that Weiss needed to shake things up (it was obvious a month ago, but whatever), so he had to take some risks. I think Marco probably got the two best players in the trade, but with JT hurt, Weissbard needed someone that can actually help him avoid the first ever B2B Shot Spot. 

I can see the logic in both sides of this trade, as Weiss got some boom/bust options to supplant his insanely boring roster, and Marco positioned himself well for the stretch run. Marco's side is better and more relevant, but I can't fault Dan for taking a swing.

Grades:
Marco: A
Weissbard: B

(Note: Marco likely losing thanks to Jaden's injury and Weissbard waking Levine up means that both teams are off to bad starts, but I stand by the logic of the trade.)

Trade Grade 2

Barnard receives Najee Harris, Davante Adams, and Darnell Mooney
Marco receives Travis Etienne Jr. and Stefon Diggs

While I love trades as a rule, a Barnard-Marco trade always feels a bit like shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic. This one has some legitimately fun elements: Will Davante get traded and to where? Does ETN get benched this week or next week? Can Diggs explode in his Bills revenge game? Does being around Zeke make Najee decide that putting on weight is the answer to his speed issues? Does Barnard know which team Mooney is on?

The big wild card here is where Davante ends up. Staying in Vegas seems like a non-starter, but if he went to the Jets, Mandos, or Saints, those would all seem to be big upgrades. However, when is the last time a receiver traded mid-season did anything during the regular season? Probably Amari to the Cowboys? I would be scared to get anywhere near Davante right now. But that also applies to literally everyone else in this trade, all of whom were on my personal Do Not Draft list.

I guess Diggs and Najee have ceilings while their teammates are injured, and maybe Jacksonville figures something out, but in general I would cue the Celine Dion music on both of these teams.

Grades:
Barnard: C
Marco: C+