(Editor's Note: Today's guest blog is from Mr. First-or-Last Mike Honcho himself, Weissbard.)
FALAFEL Fantasy Football Blog
Tuesday, November 19, 2024
Guest Blog: Shot Spot Prediction
Trade Grades 9 & 10
This one was a little delayed because I falsely assumed some more dominos would fall following Esco's statement of intent. However the rest of the contenders stood pat, so I'm left with two trades that I will grade collectively as one.
Trade Grades 9 & 10
Esco receives Josh Allen, Isaiah Pacheco, and Mike Evans
Gutman receives Rico Dowdle and Courtland Sutton
Kumpf receives C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins
While not exactly a three team trade, Esco's two deals are related and would be weird to grade on their own.
From Esco's perspective, the goal is clear: Win the Stevens Bowl. His roster was pretty set already, other than a hole at QB, and now he has the best starting lineup in the league. His only potential issue is injuries. Pacheco is no sure thing to return to form, Evans pulled a hamstring while I typed this sentence, and while Josh Allen seems to be superhuman, he takes a lot of hits. Add that to Kittle's issues and historical problems with Chase and Watson, and Esco is now one or two ankle turns away from collapse. It was a clear move to make on his part, but it's not without risk. Bonus points here from boxing Nick out of a three-way trade.
Gutman was in no man's land before this trade, and remains there afterwards. His best path to the playoffs is probably the NiJo Spot? So trading upside pieces in Evans and Pacheco for boring starters wasn't probably the best approach, but he went from very unlikely to make the playoffs to... very unlikely to make the playoffs. No harm no foul I guess?
My season has been lost for a few weeks now (I was 3-0! I miss September). Josh was really my only trade piece and I think I did well to get Nico with the upside potential of a Stroud connection. I doubt it makes much of a difference either way, and honestly scooping up Richardson was probably the more impactful move I made last week, but my roster is better than it was a week ago.
From a Power Rankings perspective, this trade moves Esco further into 1st place, drops Gutman from 12th to 14th, and keeps me at 10th.
Grades:
Esco: B+
Gutman: D
Kumpf: B
Tuesday, November 12, 2024
Week 11 Power Rankings/Trade Deadline Preview
It's time for my favorite (only) post of the year. Before I get to the meat of the post, I'll start with a quick look at the playoff picture:
- Nick - BMO Division Champ, Best Regular Season Record, Bye
- BMO - Wild Card #1, Bye
- Esco - Esco Division Champ
- Ajay - Ajay Division Champ
- Alan - Wild Card #2
- AGD - NiJo Spot
- Esco
Biggest Strength: Depth. Esco's bench would outscore some teams' starters most weeks. Nothing flashy, but he's been able to weather Nico's IR stint and would be equally set up to handle another injury at one of the flex positions.
Biggest Weakness: QB. Not sure if you've heard, but Esco is in the market for a QB. - AGD
Biggest Strength: Depth. Similar to Esco, but I actually like AGD's depth more. When at full strength, they have Tyrone Tracy and Bucky Irving on their bench, and they would start for almost every other team.
Biggest Weakness: QB. Getting Baker started to address the problem, but packaging him with one of your flex players for a stud QB would push you into the top spot.
Zacherman
Biggest Strength: Starters. Outside the teams above him, Z has the most complete starting lineup. A lot of reliance on the Chiefs and white receivers, but if they stay healthy he's competitive every week.
Biggest Weakness: Depth. If he loses any of his starters, Z will drop off precipitously. Taysom is the only one on his bench likely to be start-worthy in the playoffs.- Nick
Biggest Strength: QB. I'm a noted Brock hater, but he's QB8 so far and when Love his healthy he's on Nicks' bench. Given the QB needs elsewhere, this is a trade that has to happen.
Biggest Weakness: Flex. Jaylen Warren and ETN aren't the worst options, but they aren't great, and choosing between them every week is a pain. Packaging one of them for a legit Flex option seems likely. - BMO
Biggest Strength: WR. When everyone is healthy, they have Jeudy and Diontae on their bench. That's not splashy, but it's depth some others (me) would kill for.
Biggest Weakness: TE. Jonnu Smith and Tyler Conklin are waiver worthy. - Marco
Biggest Strength: Studs. So far, Marco has QB6, RB5, WR3, and WR5, and that doesn't even include Jonathan Taylor. No one else can match that ceiling.
Biggest Weakness: RB Depth. He has none of his handcuffs, and his only backup RB is a rookie who has been on IR all year. Gibbs and JT aren't the picture of health, and if either goes down, so does Marco. - Ajay
Biggest Strength: RB. Ajay is like the anti-Marco. Outside of Burrow and shockingly Drake London, his team is built around an RB stable that can withstand a couple of injuries.
Biggest Weakness: TE. I can admit I was wrong about LaPorta being the steal of the draft. If Ajay wants to compete for an apron, he needs to upgrade that spot. - Alan
Biggest Strength: TE. Engram is set up for success the rest of the year, and Tucker Kraft is having a dream season. No reason to hold both of them with the TE needs elsewhere in the league.
Biggest Weakness: QB. Alan has lucked into a top 5 seed, but he is prime for regression thanks to Dak's injury, Hunt's pending benching, and a point total that won't win many tiebreakers. He needs upside at QB, something that Darnold and Dimes don't exactly overflow with. - Barnard
Biggest Strength: Bench. Not sure how Barnard has been hanging around the periphery of the NiJo spot with that roster, but his resilience is commendable. Carrying three QBs continues to be weird, but he has a lot of options every week, which not everyone can say.
Biggest Weakness: Upside. To make a NiJo run, a team typically needs a couple studs to just go off. There's really none of that for Barnard, outside of some big Goff-ARSB game possibilities. I don't know if there's a way to get that, but maybe Hock pops? - Kumpf
Biggest Strength: RB. I'm the only team with two top 10 RBs and their handcuffs. I tell myself that every night before bed.
Biggest Weakness: WR. My team is a no doubt playoff team at QB, RB, and TE. But the black hole left by losing Godwin, Rashee, and Kirk means I'm going to struggle to get double digits from any WR for the rest of the season. - Levine
Biggest Strength: Current Roster. Kyler/KW3/Chase Brown/DK/Waddle/Tillman/Henry is a playoff contender for sure. It's a shame for Levine it took too long for that to materialize. I wouldn't want to face this team in the playoffs if he makes it that far.
Biggest Weakness: Studs. Similar to Barnard, Levine needs some upside to make a move in the NiJo race. If Seattle goes on a run then maybe he's in decent shape, but he can potentially trade some of that depth to get a better option at one of the flex spots. - Gutman
Biggest Strength: Tradeable QB. I had Gut as my preseason favorite for a reason, and I still like his team. Losing Pacheco, BRob, and Evans was tough but they're all on their way back. His best course is probably trading Jalen to one of the QB-needy teams at the top of this list, which will hurt(s) but can maybe upgrade his team elsewhere.
Biggest Weakness: RB. Even with a healthy BRob and Pacheco, this team needs help at RB. - Billy
Biggest Strength: Studs. What else did you expect? JJ and CMC would help any other team in this league.
Biggest Weakness: Everything Else. I don't know that this team is salvageable even if you got massive returns for your two studs. - Weissbard
Biggest Strength: Rookie Receivers. I know Weiss doesn't have Nabers, but MHJ, Worthy, Pearsall, and Coleman is a nice core for 2027.
Biggest Weakness: Drafting. I don't really know what this team was set up to do this season, but it certainly wasn't winning games.
Gutman receives C.J. Stroud, Rico Dowdle, and Nico Collins
Monday, November 11, 2024
Trade Grades 7 & 8
Not a fan of grading my own trades, but no one else has stepped up and the Trade Deadline preview is coming in a couple of days, so here we go.
Trade 7
Kumpf receives Jordan Addison
Zacherman receives Ray Davis
Z had WRs to spare, and after losing Rashee Rice, Chris Godwin and even Christian fucking Kirk, I have next to nothing in the receiver department. That arguably has not changed after this trade, but Addison at least gives me an option that's better than what's on the waiver wire. As for Z, Davis increases his upside and becomes an immediate top 5 RB if James Cook goes down. He's also a potential trade piece for handcuff purposes but good luck starting that conversation with Alan. Regardless, both teams got what they wanted from this deal, even if it's unlikely to have any effect on the outcome of the season.
Grades:
Kumpf: B-
Zacherman: B+
Trade Grade 8
AGD receives Diontae Johnson and Jonnu Smith
BMO receives Baker Mayfield and Cole Kmet
Another relatively anonymous trade, though both of these teams have big dreams this year, so it very well may have an impact.
I essentially value Jonnu and Kmet the same, and they're both backup-worthy TEs. AGD only needed a Bowers bye week replacement and I imagine will be dropping Kmet shortly. BMO is starting Jonnu, which is not great.
So the trade is basically Diontae for Baker. I love both of these guys, but Baker was never going to see the lineup with Lamar there for BMO, while Diontae is in a weird career purgatory and is now fighting for targets in a run-first offense. Flex and TE were BMO's biggest holes before the trade, and they remain that way while Higgins is out, but getting Diontae essentially for free isn't bad. AGD's team is extremely solid from top to bottom, and upgrading from Stafford/Nix to Baker only solidifies that. I can't really argue with anything from either side here.
Grades:
AGD: A
BMO: A-
Wednesday, November 6, 2024
Trade Grade 6
Marco's at 83% of this league's trades so far this season, and he's just about at the point where he starts actively making his team worse because he's impatient. Did it start with this move?
Trade Grade 6
Marco receives Demario Douglas and Mark Andrews
Nick receives Travis Etienne Jr. and Tyler Lockett
This trade looks a lot more impactful based on draft dollars than it does based on actual 2024 value. Douglas shouldn't touch anyone's starting lineup, so I'm assuming he was a throw in. From Marco's perspective, he swapped ETN and Lockett (both mid/low value flex options) for Andrews, a second tight end. This is a downgrade at Flex, but might be an upgrade over Kincaid at TE. Good luck picking between those guys every week, or starting both of them as it appears you'll be doing until Brooks is healthy.
On Nick's side, he has some wiggle room based on his fast start. Cade Otton has inexplicably become at top 5 TE, so Andrews was expendable. I don't like ETN, and Lockett will lose most/all of his value when DK comes back, but your entire bench makes for a pretty solid Flex rotation, and you have depth almost everywhere. That's a move that a someone with their eyes on a chef coat makes.
Grade:
Marco: C
Nick: A-