Trade Grades 2-4

 I know I'm late on this, but on the plus side we've had more than 1 trade per week of the season, which is a great pace. 

Trade Grade 2
Kumpf receives TreyVeon Henderson, Garrett Wilson, and Travis Kelce
Zacherman receives Bucky Irving

(Editor's Note: I removed Esco's CoPilot analysis and just left the real thing. Keep the Big Pharma AI out of the blog please.)

Good to know that CoPilot won't be winning any fantasy drafts anytime soon. Based strictly on draft capital, Zball gave up a lot for Bucky. At first, I hated this for Z but looking at rosters again, I like this trade more and more for him. Roster clarity is critical and having 2-3 good flex plays means you are just going to pick the wrong one 50% of the time. Zacherman's starting lineup is likely one of the best in the league and he just needs to figure out a plan for week 12 when Jayden, Deebo and Keenan are all on bye. The one major ding here is not getting Rachaad White as a throw-in from Kumpf. When you only have 2 RBs on your roster you have to prioritize their handcuffs. 

Kumpf is buying low on Henderson, getting a fresh start at TE with Kelce and getting the Jets QB/WR connection (hooray?), but I'm worried the rest of his team is not strong enough to carry him until a likely Henderson emergence mid-season. Justin Fields being injured might actually improve Garrett Wilson's near term value but likely limits Kumpf's overall upside. Also with Henderson, Jauan Jennings, Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton and Rachaad White all trying to squeeze into an RB2 and Flex starting spot, you are going to be guessing wrong almost every week. Hell, even Mark Andrews might outscore Kelce 30-40% of the time. Maybe you can flip 5 of these misfit toys to AGD for Allen? But grading the trade as is - I don't like it 

Grades:
Kumpf: C+ primarily due to roster make-up post-trade, not necessarily trade return value
Zacherman: B+ (docked for not getting the handcuff and making the trade the week I play Kumpf)

Trade Grade 3
BMO receives James Conner, Jordan Mason, and Chris Olave
Esco receives Kenneth Gainwell, Ja'Marr Chase, and Ricky Pearsall

I honestly don't remember this one going through. I was in my own post-trade haze and I guess the names here seem bigger than the impact? The obvious wild card here is Chase. He's succeeded without Burrow in the past, and even if he's not a top 2 WR, he's still definitely top 10. Esco gave up all his depth to get Chase, which is the kind of move you need to make when your roster has one good player on it. CD and Chase is a hell of a combo, and while the RB situation is a disaster, I actually like the Gainwell throw-in. I think he becomes a legit flex option by the end of the season.

Speaking of disaster RB situations! Bennett made the rare move of trading for starters while already owning handcuffs. I believe during the draft Bennett was pleased with himself for sniping Esco's handcuffs, and now he had to trade Chase to get them from Esco. Well played. Kaleb Johnson for $14 is looking like a contender for worst pick of the year, and luckily for BMO they realized it soon enough to salvage the season. This roster is paper thin right now but if they can tread water until Aaron Jones and Aiyuk get healthy and turn the clock back a couple of years, they may still have hope.

Grades:
BMO: C
Esco: B+

Trade Grade 4
AGD receives David Montgomery, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Tyreek Hill, Emeka Egbuka, and David Njoku
Levine receives Josh Allen, Josh Jacobs, AJ Brown, and Cedric Tillman

Wow. I don't think we've ever had a 9-player trade before, and based on this I doubt we will again. Levine got the no-doubt top 3 players in the deal, and it's not out of the question that he gets the top 4 if the Browns passing game becomes effective, the Fins keep sucking, and Godwin eats into Egbuka's production. 

I want to see a Behind the Music on the negotiations here, because I just don't understand the following:
1) How did AGD not get rid of Hurts instead of Josh?
2) How was George Kittle (a legit asset that does not hurt AGD to lose) not included?
3) How was Josh Jacobs turned into two backup RBs?

AJB and Tillman for Tyreek and Egbuka is rational, and if AGD needed to throw in Kittle to get the deal done, I would say that's a fair trade. That still leaves AGD with Josh/Jalen to flip for a low-level RB starter like Chubb. Obviously easier said than done with the number of Je...annoying negotiators in this league, but my god. You guys asked me if I was interested in making a trade, and I outright declined because I respected you enough to assume you wouldn't voluntarily sign up for rape. How wrong I was.

As mentioned in the chat, the real question is whether Levine shows up to get his chef's hat in person.

Grades:
Levine: A
AGD: F

Trade Grade 1

 Almost forgot about this one as it happened so quickly after the draft.

Trade 1
Ajay receives Puka Nacua
Marco receives Jaylen Warren, Michael Pittman Jr., and Trey McBride

In terms of straight value, this is a pretty damn even trade. Ajay gets his WR1, Marco gets a legit TE and balances his roster a bit, and everyone is happy. I do want to call out the fact that Ajay not only had a good draft, but then parlayed his biggest mistake (taking two top TEs) and somehow turned that into a strength. Combine that with Terry signing a contract and Javonte apparently being a TD machine, and I think we have a clear favorite early. 

Also, considering this trade took place less than 48 hours after the draft and Ajay "profited" $11 here, I have to give him the edge.

Grades:
Ajay: A
Marco: B

Pittsburgh Draft Recap

Given the annual snubbing of Pitt during Draft Madness, I had a feeling this would be among the best or worst draft weekends we've had. I feel like I was right, and Pitt was a surprising contender for Best Draft Weekend ever. The city was a good size for our group, activities matched our interests, the Airbnb was good enough, the weather was perfect, we had 17 people in their mid-late 30s, we had a local guide, etc. Gutman deserves his kudos for planning things, but the vibe in general was just very good. Thanks to Levine for not being able to come.

As always, I will use Bill Simmons' my movie quote gimmick to assign draft grades. I did not have a ton of choices for this year, as I would guess less than 5 of us have seen The Fish That Saved Pittsburgh, and Groundhog Day is a little too far away to count. That leaves us with what I thought was a good choice, with Pitt representing Gotham, but we're using The Dark Knight Rises. If nothing else, it gets Hines Ward into movie game. As it turns out, the quotes here were not as good as I thought, and very difficult to apply to the league. Anyway, enjoy.

Zacherman
Bane: There’s a reason why this prison is the worst hell on earth… hope.

Z's section will be a preview to the theme of this post: mid-RBs were overpays, the late-middle of the draft was chaos, and Bane has most of the good quotes in this movie. This particular quote refers to Z setting the record for getting outbid on defenses he proposed. I lost count after 5 but it may have been close to double digits. He settled on Seattle for $2, which is less than ideal, yet appropriate.
Best Pick: Travis Hunter for $13. Given the hype and unique abilities for Hunter, I assumed he would be a huge overpay. I'm high on him in general, so getting him for under $20 was a surprise to me.
Worst Pick: TreVeyon Henderson for $36. In years' past, guys like Henderson were undervalued, going in the low $20s because the league went wild on the top RBs. This year was the opposite, and seeing a time-share, injury-prone rookie on a mediocre-at-best offense go for more than guys like Kenneth Walker, Kamara, Tyreek, and every TE is a surprise. He might end up being better than those guys, but this is not how the league usually goes.
Grade: B-

AGD
Bruce Wayne: I fear dying in here while my city burns.

Might as well get this one over with. The last time we had a true autodraft, it led to a chef's coat. This time...it won't. Obviously a shitty situation all around, but so far it seems like you guys are handling it well. The simple recourse here was just to attend the draft, but if that wasn't possible, you needed more than one contingency (or at least some idea of how autodraft works). There was surprisingly little discussion on giving you guys a break somehow, but the fact that there are literally two of you and neither one did this right kind of tanked your opportunities.
Best Pick: Josh Allen for $29. Not much to work with here, but no one is mad that they drafted Josh.
Worst Pick: Jalen Hurts for $30. I mean obviously. But beyond the fact that this was a second stud QB, he somehow cost more than Josh. I have no idea how that logic is possible, but I guess we all learned something.
Grade: Bruno (not worth discussing further)

Ajay
Bane: You fight like a younger man… nothing held back. Admirable, but mistaken.

I don't think any of the specific picks were terrible, but taking two TEs and loading up on the same bye week by accident is never a good sign. Appreciate the level of drunkenness you voluntarily got yourself to by noon, but you obviously have work to do with this roster. (Reminder that these grades are as of the end of the draft and do not include any post-draft news or trades).

Best Pick: Jaylen Warren for $6. I feel like this pick slipped through the cracks. Warren is the definition of unexciting, but at worst he's the lower half of a time-share with a rookie on a team that will need to play from behind. At best he leads the time-share and has an RB1 season as Rodgers reinvigorates the entire city of Pittsburgh. Not even considering what happened after the draft, Warren should have gone for 3x as much.
Worst Pick: Brock Bowers for $34. Always tough to gauge the value of the top guy at a position, but this ended up as a relatively big overpay. I feel like Bowers is overrated in general, but even if he is TE1 this year, he's not $9 better than TE2?

Grade: A-

Weissbard
Batman: I’m whatever Gotham needs me to be.

Two time Stevens Bowl champ. Back-to-back shot spotter (3x overall). Weiss is a chameleon for this league, and this year his role was to have the best team name. His team is fine. JCM was either worth $40 or $1, so getting him for $11 will probably be a bargain. Don't love the rest of the roster, don't hate it. All I know is that you will never pick the correct RB2 unless JCM hits hard.
Best Pick: Tetaroia McMillan for $7. Auction bids were going crazy at this point in the draft, so landing a true WR1 for any team at this price was a value. Hopefully you don't even need to start him, but even as trade bait this was a nice pick.
Worst Pick: Ladd McConkey for $32. Honestly I had him valued at exactly $32, so this wasn't a wild overpay. But with BTJ already locked in at WR1, the WR2 spot could have gone any number of ways. This was by far the most boring.
Grade: B

Esco
Bane: You came back to die with your city.

Esco made a low-key pro move by announcing he wasn't coming to the draft, avoiding planning it, then showing up and still getting a good room pick. Well played, but don't think that means you are off the hook for planning next years' draft. On the downside, your team is bad. Not the worst, but still bad. You might be the first team ever to only spend $1 on your defense, with everyone else on the roster at $2 or higher. That is not a compliment.
Best Pick: Jordan Love for $2. The Maye pick looks like an overpay, but getting the guy you are actually going to be starting for this price is super nice. Lots of mouths to feed in GB, but can't go wrong by picking the guy who will be doing the feeding.
Worst Pick: Chris Olave for $10. Best case, he ends up the WR1 on a bottom-five passing offense. Worst case, he is unstartable due to injuries and/or the talent around him, and retires by Week 6. Going in the same price range as Devonta, Ridley, and Hunter makes no sense to me.
Grade: D

Nick
Bane: Speak of the devil and he shall appear.

Our defending champ can resume his usual heel role after one game of being a fan favorite. Nick had one of the weirder drafts, and I don't think it's entirely because he had to catch his flight. Every one of his picks was either a good value or a fair price, but the end product is an extremely unexciting roster. I don't know if it's Purdy at QB, Drake at WR1, Goedert at TE or just an underwhelming group of players going for a repeat, but I'm not really scared of anyone there.
Best Pick: Kyren Williams at $41. I regret not bidding this one higher. He was Exhibit A for lower level RB1s going for way cheaper than they should have.
Worst Pick: Stefon Diggs for $8. On one hand he's the top WR on his team and is only needed for flex here. On the other hand he's extremely washed and the rest of your roster was well-drafted.
Grade: C+

Billy
Bane: No one cared who I was until I put on the mask.

Didn't have great quotes here for someone who went more off-script than anyone in years. He went big for Gibbs and then...drafted three players in the $20s? A top ten QB? An actual flex player? My guess is that Billy wasn't drunk enough, something we need to remedy next year. If Billy has a resurgence this season we may have lost the most consistent facet of draft weekend besides Levine not showing up. The result is a pretty solid team from top to bottom, so maybe this is the evolution of Billy.
Best Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs for $60. I feel like Billy had mentally budgeted $75 for his RB1, so getting Gibbs for $60 threw everything off for him. I think Gibbs could easily end up as the RB1 this year, so nice value.
Worst Pick: Jaylen Waddle for $13. This auction got out of hand quickly, but it was at the point of the draft where everyone was overspending to fill out their roster. I'm down on Miami in general, and Waddle going in the range of Ridley and Odunze seems like an overpay.
Grade: A-

Kumpf
Bane: I am a necessary evil.

Everyone knows my schtick during the draft. Comment on every pick, call most of them bad, and then ultimately draft an unexciting team. This year I tried to target specific players and fill out my roster accordingly, and I guess I never stopped to look at what the final roster would look like. My roster is deep as usual but I'm not really going into Sundays pumped to watch Bucky Irving and Courtland Sutton.
Best Pick: Chase Brown for $48. Seeing Brown mocked as a top 10 RB was confusing to me at first, but I eventually came around to it and now I'm fully sold on him as a three-down touchdown machine.
Worst Pick: Jauan Jennings for $10. This was also during the crazy time of the draft, but it looks silly in hindsight. I was targeting Jennings, but also had no idea that he's already hurt and also requested a trade. Should be fun.
Grade: C

Marco
Bane: I was wondering what would break first… your spirit, or your body.

Marco stayed out of the ambulance this year, but on Thursday night it seemed like he was heading that way. Thankfully he rallied and ended the weekend in the black (I think?), then spent all of his auction dollars on starters but somehow was autodrafted some upside backups for $1. I don't super love the specific players, but it's a fun roster.

Best Pick: Malik Nabers for $45. He's extremely fun to watch and he went for less than ARSB, BTJ, and AJB, and went for the same as Puka. Speaking of...
Worst Pick: Puka Nacua for $45. No issues with Puka specifically, but after getting value with Nabers, Marco was primed to take one of the top RBs, and ended up with Kenneth Walker. Womp womp.
Grade: B

Gutman:
Alfred: Maybe it’s time we all stop trying to outsmart the truth and let it have its day.

Our first non-Bane quote goes to the organizer of this year's draft weekend. I joke that Esco needs to resume the planning role next year, but I didn't hear anyone ask for him as we were sailing down the river or betting on the Pirates. Next year during Draft Madness you should send out sample itineraries along with potential Airbnbs. Your team is bad though.

Best Pick: Derrick Henry for $56. I didn't splurge for him, but Henry finishing as a top 5 RB is something you can take to the bank.
Worst Pick: Mike Evans for $22. Going in I was targeting Evans and had him in the $10-$15 range as a potential value. That was not the case. Waiting until pick 91 to get your first WR can cause those issues.
Grade: D

Alan:
Bane: Your victory has defeated you.

I say it every year, but Alan is either going to make the Stevens Bowl or battle for the Shot Spot. This seems like a Shot Spot year.

Best Pick: Josh Downs for $3. A rare value at this point in the draft. Don't love that he's your WR2 til Week 8 but the value remains.
Worst Pick: Sam LaPorta for $22. Lots of candidates here, but TEs were heavily discounted this year and LaPorta is too frustrating to be drafted for $8 more than Hockenson.
Grade: D-

Levine:
Bane: You merely adopted the dark. I was born in it.

I had a shockingly easy time picking Levine's quote this year. He was the first to adopt a true sit-and-wait-for-value draft strategy, but now everyone else has at least dipped their toe in it. But this strategy is often replicated and never duplicated, as once again Levine comes away with 4 startable RBs, but no one he will ever be excited to start.

Best Pick: Tony Pollard for $15. No one wants Pollard but come on, he went for about the same as Tank and Jordan Mason. 
Worst Pick: Broncos D/ST for $4. I don't think any defense is worth more than $1, but in this case, are you planning on picking up a second defense when they play the Bengals and Eagles in weeks 2-3?
Grade: B+

Bennett:
Selina Kyle: The storm is coming, Mr. Wayne. You and your friends better batten down the hatches.

Even if the storm is coming, we all know Bennett won't acknowledge it unless it's a direct hit. I figured out during the draft this year that Bennett's fantasy team performs pretty much exactly how well the Eagles do. The Eagles have been good-to-great the last few years and that pretty much matches how Bennett has done. The Eagles look pretty good this year unfortunately.

Best Pick: Baker Mayfield for $8. I love Baker this year and QBs were already a bargain. Baker going for less than Chris Olave is really nice.
Worst Pick: Kyle Pitts for $5. One dollar is too much for Pitts.
Grade: B+

Barnard
Talia al Ghul: You think this is the end? It’s only the beginning.

I never thought I would say that Barnard drafted a good team. And I still won't. While this is a top 3 roster, I have to give full credit to Weissbard for picking Barnard's name out of a hat, getting him nice and drunk, and allowing him to get out of his own way. He's light on depth at RB, which won't matter because Saquon is unbreakable, but he has the deepest group of WRs in the league. He might be looking at a bye this season if he doesn't fuck it up.

Best Pick: Xavier Worthy for $5. Even before the Rice suspension was official, Worthy was worth at least double digits, and now he's in contention for a WR1 season.
Worst Pick: Zay Flowers for $20. Not getting Andrews put you in a tailspin and I have to think this bid is the result of that.
Grade: A-

Grade Recap:
Ajay: A-
Barnard: A-
Billy: A-
Bennett: B+
Levine: B+
Weissbard: B
Marco: B
Zacherman: B-
Nick: C+
Kumpf: C
Esco: D+
Gutman: D
Alan: D-
AGD: Bruno

2025 FALAFEL Season Preview

It's crazy to me that we're headed into Year 17. If our league was a girl, Parise would have snuck it in through the back door of a party. That may have happened years ago, but I digress. With Nick finally claiming his elusive Chef's Coat last year, that leaves us with Barnard, Marco, and Zacherman wearing street clothes at the draft this year. As you will see below, it is truly surprising that Marco or Z has not one yet. As you will also see, it is not surprising at all that Barnard has not won.

Ahead of Rivalry Week and the Division Draft (captains: Nick, Alan, Esco), I wanted to update the blog for this season with the usual stats.

As always, we start with PAA (Points Above Average) per season. Not that you need a reminder but this is the points above (or below as 5 of you are!) league average, summed up over the number of years you were in the league. Longevity can be a good thing (Zacherman) or a bad thing (Alan), but I think it does the best job of ranking the league by skill.

Results heading into 2025:

Still shocking to see our only 3-time champ in the mud with the Kimmels of the world, but that's how fantasy goes. It's probably a good thing overall that our currently active league makes up the top 12 of the league, and a 116 point gap between Bruno and second-to-last place seems about right too.

Based on the chart above, here are Division Draft Tiers:

1. Blue Balls: Levine, AGD, Zacherman, Esco, Kumpf, Marco

In any given year, 3 of the top 5 teams by points scored are likely to come from this group, however between us we only have 4/16 titles. We all have our drafting and trading quirks, but you are unlikely to see this group in the Shot Spot. Esco is probably the most volatile, and with Marco's trading literally anything can happen.

2. Participation Trophies: Nick, Bennett, Barnard, Weissbard

These teams hover around average overall, but they get here drastically different ways. Weissbard embodies Ricky Bobby, Bennett does exactly as well as the Eagles do, Nick is either quiet or mean, and Barnard will never win.

3. Thanks Obama: Gutman, Ajay

With three titles and five Stevens Bowl appearances between them, the upside has been there, but not for the last five years. Outside of a brief Gutman blip when he was having kids and not actively managing his team, these teams haven't been consistent playoff performers.

4. Volatility Personified, but usually bad: Alan, Billy

You are either getting a top 3 or bottom 3 finish from these teams. Five titles and seven Stevens Bowls between them, but by far the lowest PAA/Season of active teams. Billy's placement makes sense, as his strategy is well documented. Alan remains a mystery that may not be unraveled until the documentary about this league is made.

Overall points scored for posterity and so I can continue my streak of being first in one of my made up stats:

See you all next week.

14th Annual FALAFEL Draft Location Madness - The Champion

 

Thank God.

Rivalry Weeks and Room Draft next up in July/August.